Sorinth
Registered User
- Jan 18, 2013
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If we use 300 NHL games as the threshold then a generic 3rd round pick has 16.9% odds of reaching that while a 7th round pick is at 6.4%In the last 14 years what do we have 2 players that made an impact past the 2nd round, Gally and Evans. We are overdue for some good luck.
Excluding the most recent 5 drafts because it's too soon to say (Dobes for example) then we made 51 such picks. I'd say Jordan Harris, Cayden Fleury, and Michael Pezzetta have a feasibly chance to hit 300 games, and there's also Cayden Primeau to consider who might not get 300 NHL games but as a goalie the threshold should probably be half or even less that of a skater.
So we are looking at between a 3.9% - 11.8% hit rate with those picks. So we might be a little on the low side but probably not by all that much.
If you want to look at different metrics rather then 300 games this is where I'm getting my odds

Success Rates of NHL Draft Picks - The Hockey Writers NHL Entry Draft Latest News, Analysis & More
Scouting and luck combine to make for a successful draft in the NHL. Here are the success rates of the top 32 picks & each individual round.
