Prospect Info: Florian Xhekaj

[montreal]

It is still a round where it is rare to even get a player that makes the NHL.

This paper that was published on the success rates of draft picks between 1988 to 1997, it shows that you really need to be in the top 21 and it even breaks down by which round and which positions had players play over 200 NHL games.

If you were picking a forward in the 4th round, it would have the 2nd worst success rate after the 7th round (not sure why the 5th and 6th round are slightly higher success rates)

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/%7Emsch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

 

[1909]

It’s as late as late gets without being ‘late’

So why bother having drafts with so many rounds ? Let’s cut that to three rounds and pick the very best. The rest of the available players would be ufa.

 

[Treb]

This paper that was published on the success rates of draft picks between 1988 to 1997, it shows that you really need to be in the top 21 and it even breaks down by which round and which positions had players play over 200 NHL games.

If you were picking a forward in the 4th round, it would have the 2nd worst success rate after the 7th round (not sure why the 5th and 6th round are slightly higher success rates)

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/%7Emsch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

My naive guess is that some teams still pick "safe" depth players while it's more boom or bust afterwards.

 

[montreal]

My naive guess is that some teams still pick "safe" depth players while it's more boom or bust afterwards.

that's kind of what I was thinking though I wonder what the stats would look like over say the last 30 years to see if that is still the case as it does seem a bit odd.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

So why bother having drafts with so many rounds ? Let’s cut that to three rounds and pick the very best. The rest of the available players would be ufa.

That draft system would hurt Canadian teams due to the higher tax environment they operate in.

 

[Runner77]

This paper that was published on the success rates of draft picks between 1988 to 1997, it shows that you really need to be in the top 21 and it even breaks down by which round and which positions had players play over 200 NHL games.

If you were picking a forward in the 4th round, it would have the 2nd worst success rate after the 7th round (not sure why the 5th and 6th round are slightly higher success rates)

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/%7Emsch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

Is there anything focusing on more recent draft years?

I'm going on the premise that those draft results are also based on scouting and evaluative criteria that has evolved since that time. Even if there are anomalies, I subscribe to the notion that drafting has become a pretty efficient exercise -- of course, some teams do it better than others.

 

[japhi]

S

4th round is not " late"

So why bother having drafts with so many rounds ? Let’s cut that to three rounds and pick the very best. The rest of the available players would be ufa.

You really appear ready to die on this hill.

If it makes you feel better I can update my post to say middle-late? Or how about early-late? Any suggestions on how best to describe a pick that doesn't pan out 95% of the time?

 

[montreal]

 

[yianik]

I think it's about 1 guy in each of rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7 that become a top player , as in top 6F. So very long odds, but it happens every now and then. Otherwise you can hit on a useful guy like Evans, and even if Florian is a tweener or 4th line guy, with his size , physicality and skating he could play an important role on a team. Real good pick.

 

[Captain97]

I think it's about 1 guy in each of rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7 that become a top player , as in top 6F. So very long odds, but it happens every now and then. Otherwise you can hit on a useful guy like Evans, and even if Florian is a tweener or 4th line guy, with his size , physicality and skating he could play an important role on a team. Real good pick.

Exactly I'm hoping he can be a Czikas or Clutterbuck type of player. 20-30 points, PK and be a nightmare.

 

[montreal]

Exactly I'm hoping he can be a Czikas or Clutterbuck type of player. 20-30 points, PK and be a nightmare.

His game reminds me of Lucic but better mobility and a center. He's going to be a nasty piece of business to play against and if he keeps progressing at the rate he has I think he will be a good bit better then his brother.

 

[Matthew McConaughay]

His game reminds me of Lucic but better mobility and a center. He's going to be a nasty piece of business to play against and if he keeps progressing at the rate he has I think he will be a good bit better then his brother.

Florian can become a poor man's Brady Tkachuk.

 

[1909]

Florian can become a poor man's Brady Tkachuk.

If he becomes a Dakota Joshua or Marchment, that would be already a huge achievement

 

[ChesterNimitz]

If he becomes a Dakota Joshua or Marchment, that would be already a huge achievement

Florian is a better skater than Joshua and Marchment. If he continues his current trajectory, by the end of next year Florian will be seen as one of Montreal’s better forward prospects.

 

[1909]

Florian is a better skater than Joshua and Marchment. If he continues his current trajectory, by the end of next year Florian will be seen as one of Montreal’s better forward prospects.

I admire your optimism.

 

[Tyson]

If he becomes a Dakota Joshua or Marchment, that would be already a huge achievement

I am a big fan of both these players.

 

[montreal]

Florian is a better skater than Joshua and Marchment. If he continues his current trajectory, by the end of next year Florian will be seen as one of Montreal’s better forward prospects.

I think he is already viewed as one of their best forward prospects, as I would be willing to bet teams when they called about Arber and were told no, they asked on Florian next. GMs love kids that are big and nasty to play against, play a good two way game, but also has some decent hands. When the playoffs roll around he'll be worth his weight in gold.

That said in the 20+ years i've been following prospects he's had perhaps the biggest leap from draft to D+1 I have seen any of prospects have off the top of my head. I can't believe what I saw from him last year to what I saw this year, just miles better and he plays such a power game.

The big question to me is what happens next, if he can show anything close to the amount of progress he's shown since being drafted, then I will start getting really excited about his future. If not then we need to see how things go as I'm not the biggest fan of Houle with certain players and I hope they don't just plug him on a 4th line role as I think he can be much more if he can keep progressing.

 

[Beendair Donedat]

Anybody sleeping on this kid, obviously forgot that his brother is the guy who was never drafted in the OHL, never drafted to the NHL, and became a household name and a force for the Habs.

His brother has followed a similar career path, and career upswing. I wouldn’t bet against him. Period. I think the Habs were lucky enough to catch lightning in a bottle twice here.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

I admire your optimism.

I had little expectations for the younger Xhekaj when I first started to follow him with Bulldogs.

I was quickly surprised by the level of Florian’s skating, skills and offensive vision. He played in all game situations including, playing the right point/ half board on the Brantford power play. It quickly became apparent that Florian was no simple, oversized enforcer.

With his superior straightforward speed and puck transporting puck skills, I even opined that he might earn a place on the Team Canada entry at this year’s WJC. As it turned out, they could have used him.

I was particularly impressed with Florian’s play during his short stint playing for Laval. He didn’t look out of place and he was able to skate with pro players and to show the intuitive play making ability that allowed him to flourish in the OHL.

This kid still has to get quicker. But if he does, I have no doubt that he will be playing in the NHL within the next two years. Maybe, even before the end of next season.

Yes, I’m optimistic. But it’s not blind optimism. I think this kid has it.

Great 4th round pick.

 

[Rapala]

Florian is a better skater than Joshua and Marchment. If he continues his current trajectory, by the end of next year Florian will be seen as one of Montreal’s better forward prospects.

I'll say it again given his big brother's trajectory there were a lot of people sleeping on this kid.
Genes tell right Iggy?
He gave us a peak preview at camp if people were paying attention.

 

[VirginiaMtlExpat]

I think he is already viewed as one of their best forward prospects, as I would be willing to bet teams when they called about Arber and were told no, they asked on Florian next.

Can we draft the sister and maybe the mother? We should have Gallagher and Anderson coming off the books at some point...

 

[Estimated_Prophet]

This paper that was published on the success rates of draft picks between 1988 to 1997, it shows that you really need to be in the top 21 and it even breaks down by which round and which positions had players play over 200 NHL games.

If you were picking a forward in the 4th round, it would have the 2nd worst success rate after the 7th round (not sure why the 5th and 6th round are slightly higher success rates)

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/%7Emsch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

The fact that the 5th and 6th rounds have higher success rates just shows that 12 years is likley too small to produce an accurate result and that picks in these ranges are mostly luck based dart tosses. In order for an accurate measurement of these late picks that have razor thin margins you would likely need hundreds of drafts for the predictable success rates of higher picks to show a linear correlation between draft position and success rates at all levels of the draft.

I don't find these studies particularly interesting as drafts change drastically from year to year and the arbitrary line in the sand of the top 21 is only relevant as an average of a 12 year study in a time when scouting was really bad. It has absolutely very little relevance on this year's or any subsequent entry draft.

What we do know is that over the course of time there is a near linear drop in success rate with each descending selection and that is all that is relevant.

When people say stats don't lie....they are dead wrong when people start asserting conclusions that are without context or from flawed studies such as this one. This study is a snapshot and not a predictive set of data for an evolving, mecurial and subjective excercise such as the entry draft.

I am sure that you are aware of this and are just throwing it out there for fun......not taking a run at you buddy

 

[Wateredgarden]

I think he is already viewed as one of their best forward prospects, as I would be willing to bet teams when they called about Arber and were told no, they asked on Florian next. GMs love kids that are big and nasty to play against, play a good two way game, but also has some decent hands. When the playoffs roll around he'll be worth his weight in gold.

That said in the 20+ years i've been following prospects he's had perhaps the biggest leap from draft to D+1 I have seen any of prospects have off the top of my head. I can't believe what I saw from him last year to what I saw this year, just miles better and he plays such a power game.

The big question to me is what happens next, if he can show anything close to the amount of progress he's shown since being drafted, then I will start getting really excited about his future. If not then we need to see how things go as I'm not the biggest fan of Houle with certain players and I hope they don't just plug him on a 4th line role as I think he can be much more if he can keep progressing.

Joshua Roy d+1 was more impressive and he was 1 year younger.

 

[montreal]

Joshua Roy d+1 was more impressive and he was 1 year younger.

I didn't see Roy in his draft year but he was a ppg so hard to say that was more impressive going from his draft year to D+1 vs Xhekaj who didn't even look like he could play hockey that well to having a very impressive season.

 

[ChesterNimitz]

His game reminds me of Lucic but better mobility and a center. He's going to be a nasty piece of business to play against and if he keeps progressing at the rate he has I think he will be a good bit better then his brother.

He has much better offensive skills and mobility than Lucic. Lucic could never play the point or half-boards on the power play with the flair and skill that Florian can. But again, we shouldn't pigeon-hole this kid because of his size. His success at the NHL level will be as a result of his offensive skills, not his mere physicality. I see much more Nick Paul in Florian's game than a Lucic.