Confirmed with Link: Flames sign Anthony Mantha (1 yr, $3.5m)
- Thread starter JurassicTunga
- Start date
- Jan 9, 2009
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I think that's a tad too optimistic. That's only 3 rebuild years. 18 year olds drafted this past July will only be 21-22 in the 2027-28 season and those drafted in the next couple of drafts will be younger still. I doubt this team starts to be somewhat competitive until the 2028-29 season at the earliest.
Did a post on it a couple times now, in the salary cap era the average rebuild takes about 7 years until you’re a consistent playoff team, literally 7 years of missing the playoffs until you make it in back to back seasons. People hoping for a rebuild are being way too optimistic on the timelines.
We just completed year 2. If we are just average, best we are looking at is 2029-30 for our first sneaking into the playoffs season. The people hoping we can get Hagens or McKenna aren’t realizing how much more of a tear down we need to get them outside praying for lottery luck.
Backlund
Registered User
3 years is insanely optimistic. Even if we draft Hagens and McKenna there's still a lot of necessary roles to fill and much needed development for the players drafted. Drafting high isn't enough, we need legitimate top end talent or we'll just end up a different version of mediocre. And it has to be more than 1 or 2 guys. Look at all the failed rebuilds and rushed timelines of teams thinking they could speed up the process. 2030 is the year you hope to see playoff hockey again if they manage to do this properly and even that may be a year or two early.
Bounces R Way
Registered User
Y'all are giving other teams way too much credit. No contender is built from scratch using only 1st and 2nd round draft picks. That's how most perennial bottom dwellers are built. Drafting is a major part of a rebuild but it's not the only one. Savvy trades and yes FA signings are also important pillars of roster building.
2030
If that's the next time this team hopes to make the playoffs something will have gone terribly wrong.
Resign to sucking for the next two seasons and for f***s sake draft a franchise C one of those years. Everything else is fluid.
3 years is half a lifetime in this league. If the Flames aren't aiming and capable of making the playoffs in 2026-27 we haven't done well.
2030
If that's the next time this team hopes to make the playoffs something will have gone terribly wrong.
Resign to sucking for the next two seasons and for f***s sake draft a franchise C one of those years. Everything else is fluid.
3 years is half a lifetime in this league. If the Flames aren't aiming and capable of making the playoffs in 2026-27 we haven't done well.
Mobiandi
Registered User
- Jan 17, 2015
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Seriously lol.Y'all are giving other teams way too much credit. No contender is built from scratch using only 1st and 2nd round draft picks. That's how most perennial bottom dwellers are built. Drafting is a major part of a rebuild but it's not the only one. Savvy trades and yes FA signings are also important pillars of roster building.
2030
If that's the next time this team hopes to make the playoffs something will have gone terribly wrong.
Resign to sucking for the next two seasons and for f***s sake draft a franchise C one of those years. Everything else is fluid.
3 years is half a lifetime in this league. If the Flames aren't aiming and capable of making the playoffs in 2026-27 we haven't done well.
Look at the teams that topped the Pacific in 18/19 vs 21/22. There was so much player and staff turnover between those years.
Biggest thing is drafting the 3 or 4 core guys you build around, including a CENTRE. It might take 6 years to build a contender, but to make the playoffs? Half the league gets in, come on now. Watching the first round last season, some of these teams give off the impression that they got in by accident (LA, Washington, Winnipeg).
We’re going to be bad for the next two years, but we should shoot up the standings in the two years after that.
This past season was a rebuild year. That's 4 rebuild years. Note the difference between being a contending team and what I said. I said we should be actively competing. This means trying to make the team's NHL roster better in 27-28, not planning a parade. I'm in agreement that we won't be a contender, but disagree that we should still be selling off roster players for futures at that point.
Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
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People really get lost in the weeds in rebuilds.
If you're taking 6-7 years, you're essentially rebuilding a rebuild. That's that Sabres/Columbus type vicious cycle they got stuck in.
It's what happens when you start missing on your big picks.
I expect 2024-25 to be quite bad.
I expect 2025-26 to be really stinky.
I expect 2026-2027 to start coming back up the ladder, move out of the basement.
I expect 2027-2028 to be when we start being in the wildcard picture again.
They'll need a franchise centre out of 25 or 26. And they'll need a star from the other one (centre or not, preferably centre).
Mobiandi
Registered User
- Jan 17, 2015
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The blueprint is there. But it requires patience and betting on the right guys. I trust Conroy.
The Sabres and Jackets don't even feel like real NHL teams. I wouldn't be surprised if they missed the playoffs for another decade.
For me, I'm looking at an Avs/Stars/Devils rebuild vs the mess that Stevie Y has made in Detroit where they still look years away from contending after an 8 year playoff drought
Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
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Yzerman is what happens when you luck into a Kucherov. When you get Kucherov and Hedman, you're essentially playing with house money.
The best offensive player this generation not named McDavid and arguably the most complete D of the 2010's-2020's.
Hence why it's so important to get the big boy core pieces.
The signings and trades have to make sense. Nothing Detroit does on those fronts ever really does. Older overpaid depth Dmen signed long term and put in prominent roles. Did you guys know Jeff Petry was still in the league? And not only that, was playing 19 minutes a night in Detroit?
So far, I trust Conroy. I mean, there were a lot of reports he was trying to extend guys, which makes me nervous... but I'm happy he didn't go crazy on his deals to make them happen. I'd hate to have Lindholm at 9x8 or something.
So by just using first time missing the playoffs in consecutive years as the benchmark, and making the playoffs in conscecutive seasons signaling being a consistent playoff team, here is how teams across the league have fared in the salary cap era.Y'all are giving other teams way too much credit. No contender is built from scratch using only 1st and 2nd round draft picks. That's how most perennial bottom dwellers are built. Drafting is a major part of a rebuild but it's not the only one. Savvy trades and yes FA signings are also important pillars of roster building.
2030
If that's the next time this team hopes to make the playoffs something will have gone terribly wrong.
Resign to sucking for the next two seasons and for f***s sake draft a franchise C one of those years. Everything else is fluid.
3 years is half a lifetime in this league. If the Flames aren't aiming and capable of making the playoffs in 2026-27 we haven't done well.
Florida panthers: 14 years of not making the playoffs in consecutive seasons
Oilers: 13 years
Carolina: 12 years
Winnipeg: 12 years (counting time as thrashers)
Toronto: 11 years
Vancouver: 10 years
New Jersey Devils: 10 years (counting last season as it finishing, would be 12 and ongoing if I didn’t)
Colorado: 9 years
La Kings: 7 years
Islanders: 7 years
Dallas: 7 years
St. Louis: 6 years
Still ongoing:
Buffalo: 13 years
Utah: 12 years
Detroit: 8 years
Ottawa: 7 years
Chicago: 7 years
Anaheim: 7 years
San Jose: 5 years
Philadelphia: 4 years
These teams never missed the playoffs for 3+ consecutive years:
NYR
Boston
Nashville
Pittsburgh
Washington
Vegas*
Seattle*
So 17 separate teams in the salary cap era have went through 7+ years stretches of before just becoming a team that makes the playoffs consistently again (with San Jose almost a shoe in to make it 18), not even competing. That is 17 out of the 25 teams in the league that had a single stretch of missing the playoffs in 3 consecutive years like we are likely to do. So basically if you’re bad enough to miss the playoffs 3 years in a row, there’s a 70% chance it will take you 7+ years to become a consistent playoff team, and roughly a 40% chance it takes 10+.
We are in year 2, if you’d like us to bottom out and draft high to get a stud, just know we’d be in an exceptional group of teams if we are a consistent playoff team before 2030.
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Winning a lottery would be a big part of any good rebuild.
Ours was a couple years too late, would have been nice to get a shot at Bedard & Celebrini, but I guess Hagens & McKenna will do!
Ours was a couple years too late, would have been nice to get a shot at Bedard & Celebrini, but I guess Hagens & McKenna will do!
Bounces R Way
Registered User
Why would we aim for failure? You're quoting mostly failures at me, many of which had massive ownership issues this hockey team does not. They've all fired a GM or two and certainly three or four or in some cases many more coaches in those spans. Many of them had virtually no or very little assets to speak of either when they began their rebuilds, I don't think that was the case for the Flames. We've also actually missed the playoffs plenty in the last 10 years.
They picked twice in the 1st round this year, and are slated to do the same in each of the next two drafts. They have tons of picks on top of that and although yes the prospect pool is still missing some key pieces there is enough there to be optimistic about. I'm not saying things can't go wrong and that there won't be failures but I very much doubt Conroy is planning to miss the playoffs for another 5 years. Whether his vision is realized or not remains to be seen and while I wouldn't exactly bet on being back in the postseason for 2027 I also think that's a realistic goal.
Having a culture of losing set in is exactly what I want to avoid in this rebuild. I know it seems like this is pie in the sky have your cake and eat it too thinking but I genuinely believe with some savvy management and purposeful proactive decision making that a semi-quick turnaround is not only possible, but is the right course of action to strive for. I also believe that it's a great time to be rebuilding, the drafted kids these days are more prepared, more skilled, and more ready to make an impact earlier than ever before. But you need to bring them into the right situation, which means having vets like Backs, Coleman, Kadri, Weegar around to set a tone.
crackdown44
Cold milk cools down hot food
- Dec 1, 2017
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This is a great deal to retain and flip for a pick but I absolutely hate this player
All the tools to be great but just oozes non chalance and seems so lazy at times
All the tools to be great but just oozes non chalance and seems so lazy at times
Let's just give him a ton of opportunity, prop up his stats, and that's all anyone cares about.
Lets get him a career year! 50 points seems doable, he just better be healthy by the TDL
