Interesting article on Seth Jones from the Athletic - Shayna Goldman:
Jones was not the right fit in Chicago, but can he rebound with a contender? That is what the Florida Panthers are betting on.
www.nytimes.com
It's behind a payroll so copied it below. I'm not clever enough to understand most of it but interested to hear what you guys think - seems pretty postive.
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Sometimes, it’s hard to separate a player from their contract.
Seth Jones is not a $9.5 million player. He wasn’t when the Chicago Blackhawks signed him to a massive eight-year, $76 million contract in 2021, and he certainly didn’t become one in that environment. A contract of that value is generally reserved for elite number-one defensemen, and Jones isn’t that.
Just because someone can’t live up to the hype of their contract, or excel in a role above their depth, doesn’t necessarily make them a bad player. Sometimes it just makes them a bad fit.
Jones was not the right fit in Chicago, but can he revitalize his game with a contender? That is what the Florida Panthers are betting on.
Jones’ value has been debated for some time — even before his Blackhawks tenure. Even when his numbers below the surface didn’t quite look top-pair caliber, he made up for it with eye-catching play. The context of his situation and
roving responsibilities unlocked a different element in his game and made him stand out as an active defenseman in all three zones. But his size and all-situations deployment sometimes fed into a perception of his game that was above his true worth.
That perception seemingly contributed to the Blackhawks thinking Jones should become the cornerstone of their defense. Management overvalued his game and overestimated his impact on their fading playoff window.
Jones’ workload immediately increased in Chicago, but his impact trended in the wrong direction. In 2021-22, he earned a 47 percent expected goal rate. While that was technically an improvement from his last season in Columbus, his actual goal rate dropped to 41 percent. Not only was his zone entry defense a weakness, he also struggled with failed puck retrievals and exits. Some of the risks in his game that worked with the Blue Jackets exposed him with the Blackhawks.
As Jones’ underlying numbers trended down in Chicago year after year, all the way to a sub-43 percent expected goals rate this season before the trade, two things became true: he wasn’t strong enough to elevate the team around him, like he was signed to do, but he wasn’t given much support either.
It is hard to explain how daunting his workload and surroundings were in Chicago over the last few years. The Blackhawks went from being a fringe playoff team to one of the worst defensive teams in the analytics era. And while Jones contributed to that as the team’s number one defenseman, he isn’t solely to blame.
The Blackhawks’ rebuilding process has decimated their roster quality over the years, making it impossible for Jones to play to his strengths. Better defensemen would have struggled to keep their heads above water in that setting. As tricky as it may be to isolate the impact of that environment on one player, there were some glimmers of hope over the last couple of seasons. The Panthers’ front office is betting on those outweighing the bad on a playoff-caliber roster.
Jones had a positive impact on both ends of the ice relative to his teammates at five-on-five over the last couple of seasons despite having to play matchup minutes. While that only says so much, considering the caliber of the team around him, it is still encouraging. Jones’ numbers alongside Alex Vlasic also showed promise last year. Despite playing a difficult workload, the two managed a 47 percent expected goal rate in 858 five-on-five minutes and were only outscored 34-32.
Some individual elements of his game that took a hit after moving to Chicago finally trended back up last year, too. According to tracking by Corey Sznajder at All Three Zones, Jones retrieved more pucks in the defensive zone, and unlike years past, those retrievals led to zone exits. He exited the zone not only more often last year, but also more efficiently — a trend that has continued this year, with a 62 percent controlled exit rate.
Retrieving pucks and breaking out with control only went so far in Chicago. Despite Jones’ efforts, the Blackhawks often struggled to sustain offensive pressure or turned pucks over, forcing the team to shift right back to defense.
Along with more successful puck touches back in his own zone as of late, Jones has pushed play to the offensive zone more over the last couple of seasons. It’s a part of his game that stood out with the Blue Jackets years ago, and he seems to be tapping back into it.
Jones has the hockey sense to know when to jump into the rush and has the skating ability to transition and play up the ice with control. But as gutsy as he can be with a rush chance, sometimes his attempts are somewhat low-danger relative to what a forward can do in that circumstance. That shouldn’t be a problem with the Panthers because they have a high-octane forward group that should be able to turn Jones’ rushes into more dynamic attempts and sustained pressure.
If anything, Jones’s transition game is exactly what this team has been missing. The Panthers’ offensive attack was pretty balanced last season at five-on-five, but this year, Florida has been a pure forechecking team that doesn’t generate much off the rush. Jones could be the engine this team has been missing on the back end to add more dimension to its attack.
Plus, the Panthers are a much more sound two-way team than Chicago. So if Jones jumps up as a rover in Florida, there should be more layers to support him — whether a forward drifts back to cover his point defensively or provides puck support to maintain possession in the offensive zone.
The Panthers should be able to channel Jones’ best offensive traits, which would fill a void left by Brandon Montour’s departure last summer. Maybe the bigger challenge is revitalizing his game on the other end of the ice.
Just getting him out of Chicago is Step 1 — this could be similar to when Hampus Lindholm looked cooked in Anaheim until a trade to the Bruins completely rejuvenated his career. Step 2 is putting him on a team led by Paul Maurice, who has a knack for maximizing players within the Panthers’ system. Look at how Dmitry Kulikov and Oliver Ekman-Larsson rebuilt their value under this team’s direction last year.
While Jones’ puck retrievals have led to more breakouts over the last couple of seasons, he is somewhat of a high-risk, high-reward player in this area. And his zone-entry defense could still use work. Just managing his workload could go a long way since Jones likely won’t have to go up against top offensive competition in Florida as consistently as he did in Chicago. Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad shoulder that burden for the Panthers, and Jones is starting on the second pair with Niko Mikkola. He is essentially stepping into Dmitry Kulikov’s role on Mikkola’s right, and his quality of teammates (both offensively and defensively) is miles ahead of Jones’ time with the Blackhawks this year.
But even if Jones does end up facing off against the opponent’s best — like he had to against Nikita Kucherov for 8:22 five-on-five minutes in his Panthers debut on Monday — he shouldn’t be as exposed thanks to the team’s structure and talent. In his almost 17 minutes of five-on-five action, Florida controlled play with a 20-16 shot attempt advantage and 73 percent of the expected goal share. It was already one of Jones’ best games of the season.
With the Blackhawks retaining 26 percent of Jones’ salary, maybe that $9.5 cap hit won’t be as closely tied to his performance. Hitting his stride as a $7 million defenseman is much more realistic, especially in a growing cap world. With a reduced cap hit, adjusted workload and increased support, it’s time to reset expectations.
Jones’ value may never reach that peak perception from 2021. But he still has the raw skill and ability to excel in the top four. Away from the rebuilding Blackhawks, and on a contender like the Panthers, Jones is in the best position to get back on track and show what a complete defenseman he can still be.
