I never said that there was no tax advantage. My point is that it's incredibly difficult to calculate and that you just can't look at "Rate DIfferential" without understanding all of the implications. My point is that in MOST situations - the difference should be relatively small. A guy probably takes home something like 2-3% less signing with most US based teams (Avs, Hawks, Blues, Pens, Flyers, Canes, Jackets, Mammoth) compared to a no-tax state. I'm sure the 2-3% is factored in with a bunch of other factors (weather, culture, etc.), but IMO is completely secondary to how competitive the team is.
The current "popular" teams (TB, FLA, Vegas, DAL, MINN) are in demand because they're good teams because some combination of being terrible 10+ years ago and drafted a strong core, and/or supplemented by great work by the FO. Some cases it's more the front office doing great work, but in all those cases they are really good teams right now. In 2-3 years I'd expect FLA/Vegas to fall off that list and teams like MON/SJ/ANA and maybe CHI/CLM added as they improve. Those first 3 teams are in terrible tax locations, but I expect that they'll be popular because guys want a chance to win more than take home $'s.