First Third of Jets Season vs The Last Two Thirds

[Adam da bomb]

The health part is the gamble for sure... but there are so few real play drivers in the league - i think we have really under valued that

I am not sure I really follow what you mean by real play driver, as in my opinion I can see a lot of play drivers around the league. After all, every line Lowry plays with generally has good metrics. Around the league, I see Hughes(x2) , Makar, Mackinnon, McDavid, Morrissey, Werenski, Aho, Nylander, Marner, Petersson, Miller,

Right now Ehlers is doing a great job driving his line. But, if we need to bring in an expensive 2c to play with him in order to have a second scoring line I see that as a problem. A) It means he can't drive a line well enough and B) I don't see any team wanting to spend 16 million dollars on their second line Ehlers 8.5-9 and the centre 6-7 million.
As I see it, it means it really limits the team's depth which the team is based around as we don't have any player who can match up to Mack, and Mcdavid. So, I see teams going with an expensive piece and building around it for their second line. If that expensive piece is Ehlers then they should be able to save money on the centre. For instance, Avs second line was Ratanen (the expensive piece) and two cheap no name players. We are hoping (Ehlers and two cheap pieces.) Dallas built their team around depth. They have Hesk at 11, Jason Robertson at 9, Seguin at 8 then everyone earning less. We have schief at 8.5 + Helly at 8.5, so if Ehlers gets 8.5 and Connor gets 8.5, I assumed he would earn more until these last 4 games, that means we are spending more money on our top 4 stars. ( I missed Mo). Avs and Edmonton do it by running their stars 30 plus minutes a game so can afford to spend less on depth. Toronto has no depth.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I am not sure I really follow what you mean by real play driver, as in my opinion I can see a lot of play drivers around the league. After all, every line Lowry plays with generally has good metrics. Around the league, I see Hughes(x2) , Makar, Mackinnon, McDavid, Morrissey, Werenski, Aho, Nylander, Marner, Petersson, Miller,

I should phrase that as scoring play drivers... and yes the list you provide is the elite of the NHL... on the Jets I'd say Ehlers, Lowry and Morrissey are your main play drivers while Scheif and Nino as close seconds

Jets are lucky in that matter - for instance i wouldn't classify any of the Flames forwards as an elite play driver... Kadri is close but definitely doesn't carry a line

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers gets polar reactions around here. He has some really tough critics.


Between Ehlers is an important player and is probably our 4th most important player behind our number 1 scored, our number 1 centre and our big shutdown centre who should be in the running for a selke.

and

no, if he was used right he would have 90-100 points and should be number 1. “

yes, he has a lot more potential you can’t call him a 70-80 point player, until he does it, even though he probably has the potential to produce more.


Also, between Ehlers is a really important part of our pp and is equally important to everyone else,

and

no just admit it, he completely drives the power play and is the reason why it’s at the top of the league.

Give him the same as Schief vs

he is having a great season, but, let’s see if he can stay healthy and can produce in the playoffs.

I also don’t hold with the pair him with mcd or Mack suggestion. I think he does his best work with a Tkachuk, ratananen, Drai.

ive heard of people being dropped on the head as children, but you must have been a straight fast-ball out of your mother to the ground. what the f*** is with this post.

 

[Skidooboy]

I also remember you could literally injure your opponents best player ... except gretzky


But what are you arguing against? Because i cant find a post.. including garret where anyone has said this...

Id just like some indication that @Buffdog or @Skidooboy had actually read the article... because garret clearly points out that the difference between the two parts of the season is 14th or 15th place.. so he doesnt seem to be making the point you are arguing against.

The stats guru is saying what he always says….

the Jets are decent but 5-5 metrics indicate we are “lucky” to have as good a record as we do, and that by arbitrarily slicing up the season, he can find examples of periods of play where the jets struggle greatly and don’t deserve the wins they get and the Xgoalsfor is lower than the opponents and we only win because of tending and the powerplay… which “doesn’t count” because 5-5 is everything….

he’s talking about bad line combos and poor deployment.

did i pass the test?

we get it. we have gotten it for the many long years he’s been preaching the same narrative…, right back to Burmistrovs impending emergence as a great star in the NHL….Analytics tell THE REAL STORY!!!!

but on the ice? for the past 2 1/2 seasons? we’re a top tier team in terms of points, Wins, ROW. GF and GA. this year our PK and PP are working…

give or take a bounce or a bad or untimely penalty? Jets probably have a series win…

so yeah… the “Well acshully metrics show the Jerts aren’t elite and are just lucky..When they regress to the norm they will be bad and loose more games and be as bad as i say they are.” argument is growing repetitive and increasingly demonstrably wrong.

and Yes… we rely on Helle…. and we are lucky and happy to have him. but it’s a team sport, always has been. he wears the crest and shares the wins and the losses. it’s not like we are cheating. we drafted him, developed him, and signed him.

he’s on the team.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

The stats guru is saying what he always says….

the Jets are decent but 5-5 metrics indicate we are “lucky” to have as good a record as we do, and that by arbitrarily slicing up the season, he can find examples of periods of play where the jets struggle greatly and don’t deserve the wins they get and the Xgoalsfor is lower than the opponents and we only win because of tending and the powerplay… which “doesn’t count” because 5-5 is everything….

he’s talking about bad line combos and poor deployment.

did i pass the test?

we get it. we have gotten it for the many long years he’s been preaching the same narrative…, right back to Burmistrovs impending emergence as a great star in the NHL….Analytics tell THE REAL STORY!!!!

but on the ice? for the past 2 1/2 seasons? we’re a top tier team in terms of points, Wins, ROW. GF and GA. this year our PK and PP are working…

give or take a bounce or a bad or untimely penalty? Jets probably have a series win…

so yeah… the “Well acshully metrics show the Jerts aren’t elite and are just lucky..When they regress to the norm they will be bad and loose more games and be as bad as i say they are.” argument is growing repetitive and increasingly demonstrably wrong.

and Yes… we rely on Helle…. and we are lucky and happy to have him. but it’s a team sport, always has been. he wears the crest and shares the wins and the losses. it’s not like we are cheating. we drafted him, developed him, and signed him.

he’s on the team.

Not the take I got but I can see your point. I don't see the anti-Jets bias that you do though...

I took it as the lines with more time are closer to the mean than the ones with a smaller sample... not as 'these are better line combos' - the Lowry line is still elite even with a lot of ice time. And Samberg-Pionk are a lot better than i thought...

I mean would you frame him as having an anti-Toronto or Minnesota bias since they are ranked lower than us?

I look at this more as a way to see what weaknesses the team has but to also view it with the realization that our system and goalie make up for a lot of it. I don't see that as a negative.

Oh and Stanley sucks.

 

[Skidooboy]

Not the take I got but I can see your point. I don't see the anti-Jets bias that you do though...

I took it as the lines with more time are closer to the mean than the ones with a smaller sample... not as 'these are better line combos' - the Lowry line is still elite even with a lot of ice time. And Samberg-Pionk are a lot better than i thought...

I mean would you frame him as having an anti-Toronto or Minnesota bias since they are ranked lower than us?

I look at this more as a way to see what weaknesses the team has but to also view it with the realization that our system and goalie make up for a lot of it. I don't see that as a negative.

Oh and Stanley sucks.

i wouldn’t frame him as anti anything….

i would frame him as pro what i call “fancy stats”
to the point where he seems unable to accept the stats he uses are not definitive. he seems unwilling to accept the fact that hockey is dynamic and continuous series of events full of incalculable chaos and variables. PDO doesn’t magically reduce that chaos to predictability…

it’s not poker. the odds don’t change when a card is turned, it’s not baseball where we wait 30 seconds of dead time for 3 seconds of action.

it’s not even football where there’s a firm location and objective (scrimmage line and offence vs Defence)

the clock starts and EVERYTHING is chaos and everyone has to do everything, skate hit pass and shoot…forecheck, backcheck…until the whistle blows…and the clock stops again.

you can be behind your own goal scrubbing an opponent out and 4secomds later be at the the other end of the playing surface hitting a onetime top cheese.

hockey really doesn’t lend itself to stats… it’s a useful tool…. but telling us the team that’s been near the top of the league… in one of the hardest divisions…for multiple years.. are just lucky and really are a mid level team…cuz MY stats say so?

c’mon.

stats are great at describing what has happened for a population.

they are not definitely predictive and that accuracy becomes less and less as we move towards individuals, and individual outcomes.

 

[Skidooboy]

Not the take I got but I can see your point. I don't see the anti-Jets bias that you do though...

I took it as the lines with more time are closer to the mean than the ones with a smaller sample... not as 'these are better line combos' - the Lowry line is still elite even with a lot of ice time. And Samberg-Pionk are a lot better than i thought...

I mean would you frame him as having an anti-Toronto or Minnesota bias since they are ranked lower than us?

I look at this more as a way to see what weaknesses the team has but to also view it with the realization that our system and goalie make up for a lot of it. I don't see that as a negative.

Oh and Stanley sucks.

also i’m pretty sure Garret is a huge Jets fan….So i don’t want anyone thinking he’s not. i think he wants the team to win as bad as i do.…..

i just think he has internal narratives about what the Jets weaknesses are and cherry picks the data that proves his biases.
, and he really has a hard time accepting that you just ply the game in front of you, and take what comes to you when it comes to you, and good teams find ways to win no matter who had more shot attempts or “dangerous chances”

 

[Flair Hay]

i wouldn’t frame him as anti anything….

i would frame him as pro what i call “fancy stats”
to the point where he seems unable to accept the stats he uses are not definitive. he seems unwilling to accept the fact that hockey is dynamic and continuous series of events full of incalculable chaos and variables. PDO doesn’t magically reduce that chaos to predictability…

it’s not poker. the odds don’t change when a card is turned, it’s not baseball where we wait 30 seconds of dead time for 3 seconds of action.

it’s not even football where there’s a firm location and objective (scrimmage line and offence vs Defence)

the clock starts and EVERYTHING is chaos and everyone has to do everything, skate hit pass and shoot…forecheck, backcheck…until the whistle blows…and the clock stops again.

you can be behind your own goal scrubbing an opponent out and 4secomds later be at the the other end of the playing surface hitting a onetime top cheese.

hockey really doesn’t lend itself to stats… it’s a useful tool…. but telling us the team that’s been near the top of the league… in one of the hardest divisions…for multiple years.. are just lucky and really are a mid level team…cuz MY stats say so?

c’mon.

stats are great at describing what has happened for a population.

they are not definitely predictive and that accuracy becomes less and less as we move towards individuals, and individual outcomes.

I think the last part is probably true. The game is definitely more free flowing so it's not as plug and play with pieces as football or baseball.

That said...

The article is basically saying this team is top of the league in PP and goaltending, and more average at 5v5.

Seems like a pretty fair conclusion to draw?

There are different ways to build a contender. Hot special teams and goaltending can definitely bring down a 5v5 juggernaut in a 7 game series. And vice versa. What's more likely to happen won't always happen. Especially not in hockey.

also i’m pretty sure Garret is a huge Jets fan….So i don’t want anyone thinking he’s not. i think he wants the team to win as bad as i do.…..

i just think he has internal narratives about what the Jets weaknesses are and cherry picks the data that proves his biases.
, and he really has a hard time accepting that you just ply the game in front of you, and take what comes to you when it comes to you, and good teams find ways to win no matter who had more shot attempts or “dangerous chances”

Hard to measure heart, and how you react when pressure is on and the game is tighter. Fully agree there.

 

[Gil Fisher]

In the past 15-20 games we've actually shown quite well 5v5. wouldn't be surprised if we were close to top 5 over that period. Think around 57% xGF.

I think the combination of our 5v5 play, goaltending, and special teams indicate we are a top 4 team in the league. I don't know how to rank us, Wash, LV, and Edmonton.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

i wouldn’t frame him as anti anything….

i would frame him as pro what i call “fancy stats”
to the point where he seems unable to accept the stats he uses are not definitive. he seems unwilling to accept the fact that hockey is dynamic and continuous series of events full of incalculable chaos and variables. PDO doesn’t magically reduce that chaos to predictability…

it’s not poker. the odds don’t change when a card is turned, it’s not baseball where we wait 30 seconds of dead time for 3 seconds of action.

it’s not even football where there’s a firm location and objective (scrimmage line and offence vs Defence)

the clock starts and EVERYTHING is chaos and everyone has to do everything, skate hit pass and shoot…forecheck, backcheck…until the whistle blows…and the clock stops again.

you can be behind your own goal scrubbing an opponent out and 4secomds later be at the the other end of the playing surface hitting a onetime top cheese.

hockey really doesn’t lend itself to stats… it’s a useful tool…. but telling us the team that’s been near the top of the league… in one of the hardest divisions…for multiple years.. are just lucky and really are a mid level team…cuz MY stats say so?

c’mon.

stats are great at describing what has happened for a population.

they are not definitely predictive and that accuracy becomes less and less as we move towards individuals, and individual outcomes.

It is very interesting though - when you look at HockeyViz - that our season really does fit more into 16 game blocks than anything else...

First 16 games - massively dominant XG obviously
Second 16 - opponents generally outchancing us and we lose the advantage
Third 16 - Jets are really smothering opponents with huge XG advantage at 5v5

Other interesting stuff
- Lowry and Ehlers combo is off the charts - kind of why Im advocating for Copp as a Lowry 2.0
- Fleury is worse than Stan - Stan not as bad as he looks
- Miller is massively underutilized
- Pionk desperately needs Samberg on the ice
- Ehlers and Perfetti have so far made each other worse
- Names is our worst forward

Looking at the charts our best lineup is prob
CSV
Ehlers-Lowry-Iafallo
Nino-Kupari-Perfetti
Barron-Gus-Apples

 

[Skidooboy]

I think the last part is probably true. The game is definitely more free flowing so it's not as plug and play with pieces as football or baseball.

That said...

The article is basically saying this team is top of the league in PP and goaltending, and more average at 5v5.

Seems like a pretty fair conclusion to draw?

There are different ways to build a contender. Hot special teams and goaltending can definitely bring down a 5v5 juggernaut in a 7 game series. And vice versa. What's more likely to happen won't always happen. Especially not in hockey.


Hard to measure heart, and how you react when pressure is on and the game is tighter. Fully agree there.

is it though?

i mean the team plays the majority of TOI in 5on 5 situations…

they don’t give up a lot of goals 5-5… they just don’t.
if they did? the GA would be higher…

also 14/15 isn’t “average.

its bottom of the playoffs falling towards a rebuild.

the Jets ain’t that. you say top 5 not top 2? we can discuss… we can even say top three in our division…. maybe room for top 4.

you say barely good enough to make the playoffs? i’m not listening. the past three seasons real world results with largley the same core and D…would suggest 14/15 is the dead rock bottom low point on the dataset. not the sum of thier quality here and now.

 

[Skidooboy]

It is very interesting though - when you look at HockeyViz - that our season really does fit more into 16 game blocks than anything else...

First 16 games - massively dominant XG obviously
Second 16 - opponents generally outchancing us and we lose the advantage
Third 16 - Jets are really smothering opponents with huge XG advantage at 5v5

Other interesting stuff
- Lowry and Ehlers combo is off the charts - kind of why Im advocating for Copp as a Lowry 2.0
- Fleury is worse than Stan - Stan not as bad as he looks
- Miller is massively underutilized
- Pionk desperately needs Samberg on the ice
- Ehlers and Perfetti have so far made each other worse
- Names is our worst forward

Looking at the charts our best lineup is prob
CSV
Ehlers-Lowry-Iafallo
Nino-Kupari-Perfetti
Barron-Gus-Apple

if barron can play off wing or we can adapt that line to work with him there… i’d like him Lowry and Ehlers.

Barron >Apples

i’m still not sure why Iafallo exists on this team.

 

[Gm0ney]

In the past 15-20 games we've actually shown quite well 5v5. wouldn't be surprised if we were close to top 5 over that period. Think around 57% xGF.

I think the combination of our 5v5 play, goaltending, and special teams indicate we are a top 4 team in the league. I don't know how to rank us, Wash, LV, and Edmonton.

At the 50 game mark, we have a nice 25-25 game split between the Jets' first half and second half.

At 5v5 this season:

	xGF - xGA	xGF%	GF - GA	GF%	PP%	Record	Points%
First 10 GP	19.19 - 22.42	46.12 (28th)	22 - 19	53.66 (11th)	44.8 (1st)	9-1-0	.900 (1st)
First 25 GP	48.57 - 52.54	48.57 (22nd)	52 - 43	54.74 (7th)	31.5 (2nd)	18-7-0	.720 (3rd)
Last 25 GP	53.69 - 45.72	54.01 (8th)	51 - 32	61.45 (1st)	33.3 (1st)	15-7-3	.660 (4th)
Last 10 GP	21.43 - 16.27	56.84 (4th)	21 - 13	61.76 (2nd)	35.7 (3rd)	6-3-1	.650 (9th)
Season	102.26-98.26	51.00 (12th)	103 - 75	57.87 (3rd)	32.4 (1st)	33-14-3	.690 (2nd)

The Jets 5v5 xGF% has been steadily improving. More xGF, and way less xGA.

Last 25 games, the Jets are 2.18 xGF/60 at 5v5 which is tied for 5th best.

Last 10 games, the Jets are 1.88 xGA/60 at 5v5 which is best in the league.

The powerplay had a lot to do with the Jets success early, and while it's still converting at a torrid pace, the Jets are drawing SFA for penalties lately - but the 5v5 play has really come along to pick up the slack.

 

[Gm0ney]

Let me round the numbers for easier readability - the original table remains above for fans of two decimal places of precision...

	xGF - xGA	xGF%	GF - GA	GF%	PP%	Record	Points%
First 10 GP	19 - 22	46% (28th)	22 - 19	54% (11th)	45% (1st)	9-1-0	.900 (1st)
First 25 GP	49 - 53	49% (22nd)	52 - 43	55% (7th)	32% (2nd)	18-7-0	.720 (3rd)
Last 25 GP	54 - 46	54% (8th)	51 - 32	61% (1st)	33% (1st)	15-7-3	.660 (4th)
Last 10 GP	21 - 16	57% (4th)	21 - 13	62% (2nd)	36% (3rd)	6-3-1	.650 (9th)
Season	102 - 98	51% (12th)	103 - 75	58% (3rd)	32% (1st)	33-14-3	.690 (2nd)

 

[Gil Fisher]

At the 50 game mark, we have a nice 25-25 game split between the Jets' first half and second half.

50 games down, 50 to go!!

 

[Buffdog]

At the 50 game mark, we have a nice 25-25 game split between the Jets' first half and second half.

At 5v5 this season:

	xGF - xGA	xGF%	GF - GA	GF%	PP%	Record	Points%
First 10 GP	19.19 - 22.42	46.12 (28th)	22 - 19	53.66 (11th)	44.8 (1st)	9-1-0	.900 (1st)
First 25 GP	48.57 - 52.54	48.57 (22nd)	52 - 43	54.74 (7th)	31.5 (2nd)	18-7-0	.720 (3rd)
Last 25 GP	53.69 - 45.72	54.01 (8th)	51 - 32	61.45 (1st)	33.3 (1st)	15-7-3	.660 (4th)
Last 10 GP	21.43 - 16.27	56.84 (4th)	21 - 13	61.76 (2nd)	35.7 (3rd)	6-3-1	.650 (9th)
Season	102.26-98.26	51.00 (12th)	103 - 75	57.87 (3rd)	32.4 (1st)	33-14-3	.690 (2nd)

The Jets 5v5 xGF% has been steadily improving. More xGF, and way less xGA.

Last 25 games, the Jets are 2.18 xGF/60 at 5v5 which is tied for 5th best.

Last 10 games, the Jets are 1.88 xGA/60 at 5v5 which is best in the league.

The powerplay had a lot to do with the Jets success early, and while it's still converting at a torrid pace, the Jets are drawing SFA for penalties lately - but the 5v5 play has really come along to pick up the slack.

This data kinda refutes the premise of Garrett's article, no?

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

This data kinda refutes the premise of Garrett's article, no?

He ranks the league based on corsi

 

[Crocket]

He was part of the analytics team that won the cup in Washington.

I think he was fired by them and zero to do with any NHL team winning a cup