This is looking pretty good for Finland. Finland might be able to skip the first playoff round even if they get zero points from Sweden game. I expect Finland to beat Sweden but just thinking about the second scenario just in case.
When looking at group B, which has RUS, USA and SVK. (SLO can't catch Finland anymore.) Worst case for Finland is if Russia ends up #2 in that group. RUS has the best goal differential in that group by far, +5. Russia must get full 3 points from heir only game remaining against USA, so Russia must beat them in regular time. We can expect SVK to beat SLO on their last game on regular time which knocks RUS to the #2 place of their group. This means Finland's goal differential will be compared to RUS. Finland has +7 goal differential now, Russia +5.
USA --- Points: 4 --- GP: 2 --- Goal diff: 0
SVK --- Points: 3 --- GP: 2 --- Goal diff: 0
RUS --- Points: 3 --- GP: 2 --- Goal diff: 5
FIN --- Points: 6 --- GP: 2 --- Goal diff: 7
Groups on IIHF: Men
Group A played only one game each, so it's harder to predict what will happen there. The dangerous thing in group A is Canada placing #2 in their group. So if Czech beats them. Also it's not good if CAN-CZE goes to OT and both of those teams get points, because then most likely more than one team will have 7 points.
So we don't want Czech to beat Canada, because after that game Canada has Korea game left where they will probably score like 5-7 times and compete with Finland's goal difference. Canada has +4 goal difference after only one game and a lot more will be added from the Korea game, while Czech screwed up against Korea and only got +1 goal difference from that game and I doubt that Czech are able to crush Switzerland hard with big goal differential. So we definitely want Canada to sweep that group.
Key games left in group A:
Canada-Czech
Canada-Korea
Czech-Switzerland
So to summarize: Close loss to Sweden on regular time can be enough for Finland to get a bye on first PO round. It helps Finland if Canada sweeps group A. Russia beating USA on regular time is dangerous for Finland. Overall it's looking good for Finland at the moment.
Below is the order of how the best #2 is decided.
Information
- Higher position in the group
- Higher number of points
- Better goal difference
- Higher number of goals scored for
- Better 2017 IIHF World Ranking