Pre-Game Talk: Final Game 4. Stu needs to come thru. Unlimited Pole responses.

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

First off, the people doing that are unlikely to be posting here, where nobody actually hates him and literally everybody wants him to play well and are f***ing ecstatic when he does because it always leads to victory.



And people like you will point out Pickard's 888 sv% while ignoring every other stat that doesn't favor Stu. Funny how that works. Pickard was never, at any point, the biggest culprit in our losses. Stu has been at least twice and likely more. Stu has a higher ceiling, so when he's good his stats are better, and overall that makes his number prettier, but Pickard never had a performance anywhere near as bad as Stu had in the first two LA games and last night. Their win-loss records are not a coincidence.

Here's Pickard sv% game by game.
.857
.927
.954
.851
.882
.875

Only two games over .900 but the Oilers still found a way to win those games, having to come from behind in each and every one.

My point is that this team can overcome average goaltending. But they have to start by outworking their opponents and not falling into their traps like they did during a few of their losses. One recurring theme from the playoffs this year is the absolutely stupid penalties we're taking. Careless sticks and getting baited into diving plays by the opposition. If we had last year's PK this wouldn't be an issue but the PK has sucked this playoffs regardless of who's in net. They also have to start shooting from prime scoring areas and getting creative on the power play. If they start cashing in on the power play on a consistent basis, you better believe the Panthers will cut the crap.

Game 4 will tell us a lot about this team. They can win regardless of who's in net, now they have to show it.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Florida isn’t even paying attention to nuge on the PP by the way. Need a guy who will make you pay there when a PK is this aggressive.

 

[MessierThanThou]

The posters only intent is to virtue signal and throw shade at other posters because we call Skinner "garbage" referring to his play. The poster in question has had worse to say about other posters here than we've said about Fred Skinner.

That's all these people have: a plea to emotion and some vague sense of moral superiority. As we just saw with Keith: "people hate him" "he had death threats." Yes, we'd all like to see those people punished accordingly, and it angered me to hear about that, but what does it have to do with his performance last night? How does it absolve him? There are no stats or evidence to back up their defense when he has a poor performance, yet they persist like rabid dogs.

When Skinner is good, we admit it. When Skinner is bad, he's the absolute last person they will point the finger at. These people are not arguing in good faith. They have their favorites, McDrai and Bouchard definitely aren't among them (weird for supposed fans not to support their best players), and for whatever reason, Skinner seems to be the one they feel compelled to defend and protect like he's their own.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Here's Pickard sv% game by game.
.857
.927
.954
.851
.882
.875

Only two games over .900 but the Oilers still found a way to win those games, having to come from behind in each and every one.

My point is that this team can overcome average goaltending. But they have to start by outworking their opponents and not falling into their traps like they did during a few of their losses. One recurring theme from the playoffs this year is the absolutely stupid penalties we're taking. Careless sticks and getting baited into diving plays by the opposition. If we had last year's PK this wouldn't be an issue but the PK has sucked this playoffs regardless of who's in net. They also have to start shooting from prime scoring areas and getting creative on the power play. If they start cashing in on the power play on a consistent basis, you better believe the Panthers will cut the crap.

Game 4 will tell us a lot about this team. They can win regardless of who's in net, now they have to show it.

The difference is Skinner always seems to let in back breakers when the Oilers attempt to come back. It’s like we get some momentum and bang it’s in our net again.

 

[Goose]

 

[gretzkyoilers]

FTR I would never wish injury or harm on any oilers player I save that sh*t for those ratf***s from Florida, I hope their plane crashes into the ocean.

Even if I was a neutral fan I do not find Florida that likeable...it's their dirty play that borders on illegal...let's just have a skilled game....hitting sure...but do not run the goalie, etc.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The difference is Skinner always seems to let in back breakers when the Oilers attempt to come back. It’s like we get some momentum and bang it’s in our net again.

Ideally we play in a position where we don't have to keep coming back because that's just not sustainable. We got our one comeback against this team in this series, it's not likely to happen again. They're extremely tough to beat when they're ahead.

One thing I'll say about that team and that game is they went for the kill shot and didn't f*** around with the puck. If the Oilers had a bit more urgency when on their multiple PPs in game 2 we're having a different conversation today.

Unfortunately one of the bad habits we've done as a team this year is letting teams hang around and not displaying urgency when the opportunity presents itself. We might be able to get away with it against worse teams but this is a team you have to bury if you want to beat them.

 

[MessierThanThou]

Ideally we play in a position where we don't have to keep coming back because that's just not sustainable. We got our one comeback against this team in this series, it's not likely to happen again. They're extremely tough to beat when they're ahead.

Hard to do when your goalie has a -2.63 GSAx. Like almost impossible unless the other goalie is an AHLer...

 

[gretzkyoilers]

The difference is Skinner always seems to let in back breakers when the Oilers attempt to come back. It’s like we get some momentum and bang it’s in our net again.

Yeah it's weird. Either he's locked it down or he lets in the worst goals that ruin any gain the Oilers had made. He can make or break the game; no middle ground.

 

[Forgot About Drai]

Florida isn’t even paying attention to nuge on the PP by the way. Need a guy who will make you pay there when a PK is this aggressive.

100% - but who do you even put there. We dont really have anyone with enough skill to manage that half wall. Maybe if Skinner draws in but other then that..

 

[MessierThanThou]

I mean how many times have we all asked for just league average goaltending...

We had that with Pickard and didn't lose once.

 

[Little Fury]

Even if I was a neutral fan I do not find Florida that likeable...it's their dirty play that borders on illegal...let's just have a skilled game....hitting sure...but do not run the goalie, etc.

Marchand, Tkchauk, PEDblad, Bennett, just a horrible group of goblin people.

 

[iCanada]

The posters only intent is to virtue signal and throw shade at other posters because we call Skinner "garbage" referring to his play. The poster in question has had worse to say about other posters here than we've said about Fred Skinner.

I don't hate him. I would love Skinner if he was starting for the Panthers.

I mean hell - if he was atleast average 50% of the time - whatever.

The thing is - statistically - he's been well below average in over half his starts this post season.

At a certain point - cut your losses and go with the sure thing. We don't have any more f***ing games to coinflip away.

Sure - Skinner is better when he's at his best. But how many games does he bring that? In 5 of 14 games - he's been above average. In 2 of 14 he's been average. In 7 of 14 he's been well below average. We need to win 3 of 4 games.

Statistically - you can damn well say that he's going to be absolute shit in 1.43 games, average in 0.57 games, and above average in 2 games. Let's pick some numbers that are exceptionally generous to Stu; Say we have 25% chance to win with below average goaltending, 50% chance to win with average goaltending, and 75% chance to win with above average goaltending. That means in those 4 games, statistically we expect to win 2.14 games; it's possible we win 3, but not very likely.

Run the same numbers with Pickard; below average in 0 of 6. Average in 4 of 6. Above average in 2 of 6. That means you expect to win 2.44 games. It's much more likely we win 3 with Pickard than if we start Stu. You expect 15% higher quality across 4 games from Pickard on average.

Just go with the sure thing - if we lose another because Stu is having a moment - the chance we win 3 literally evaporates into thin air.

Game 2 is the perfect example - there's no question in my mind we win game 2 with Pickard in net.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

We had that with Pickard and didn't lose once.

.888 isn't league average goaltending

but the Oilers did average almost 5 goals a game with him in net

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Hard to do when your goalie has a -2.63 GSAx. Like almost impossible unless the other goalie is an AHLer...

The stat varies depending on where you look but it's not like Pickard is knocking it out of the park in that stat either.

It's not a completely reliable stat because teams will generally back off into a defensive shell when they get the lead against us and not trade chances because that's a stupid thing to do.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

.888 isn't league average goaltending

but the Oilers did average almost 5 goals a game with him in net

Which also proves they can win even when the goalie isn't having the best night so long as they work hard and stick with it.

Keumpfer almost stole game 5 but the Oilers just kept pushing and pushing until the dam broke.

 

[CupofOil]

It doesn't matter who is in net if the Oilers don't drastically improve defensively. Skinner hasn't made the big saves but man alive is this team giving up very high quality chances by the bushel. Nurse, Kulak and Klingberg have been disasters, Walman has been suspect defensively as well. These guys have been getting their collective shit pushed in by the Florida forecheck so if that doesn't change this will be over in 5 or 6. A depth guy or two needs to do something ANYTHING as well..

 

[MessierThanThou]

The stat varies depending on where you look but it's not like Pickard is knocking it out of the park in that stat either.

View attachment 1048446
View attachment 1048450

It's not a completely reliable stat because teams will generally back off into a defensive shell when they get the lead against us and not trade chances because that's a stupid thing to do.

Now find me one game where Pickard had a -2 GSAx this postseason. That's what I'm saying: Skinner's highs are higher and the overall stats will reflect that, but his lows will lose us games almost on his own, which you can't say about Pickard.

 

[MessierII]

Another thing I noticed is we keep trying to force zone entries through their overload. If they are overloading the blue line we gotta start chipping it past them and doing the old dump and chase. Get it deep and force them all to turn around and skate all the way back behind the goal line to get the puck. That’s what wears a team over a game. It’s also led to McDavid and Draisaitl specifically taking so many unnecessary hits. I get wanted to enter with control but it’s not going to work 1 on 3. Get it deep.

 

[iCanada]

It doesn't matter who is in net if the Oilers don't drastically improve defensively. Skinner hasn't made the big saves but man alive is this team giving up very high quality chances by the bushel. Nurse, Kulak and Klingberg have been disasters, Walman has been suspect defensively as well. These guys have been getting their collective shit pushed in by the Florida forecheck so if that doesn't change this will be over in 5 or 6. A depth guy or two needs to do something ANYTHING as well..

The Oilers gave up 5 high danger scoring chances at 5 on 5 last night. The Panthers scored 3 times on those 5 chances.

That's the least number of high danger chances per 60 we've given up all playoffs long.

We also only have up 6 high danger chances on the pk, which is the same number we generated in the pp in 8 minutes instead of the Panthers 15 minutes.

Of the first three goals against - the first wasn't even a high danger chances, Skinner just being Skinner. The second one he gets beat clean. The third he gets beat clean.

 

[MessierThanThou]

.888 isn't league average goaltending

but the Oilers did average almost 5 goals a game with him in net

There are games where the goalie plays well but the team just can't score enough. There are games where the team can score and the goalie plays well but it's just not enough. Unfortunately, neither has been the case with Stu even once this postseason, especially last night. The good news is that when he's good, we can win games with only one goal. The bad news is that he's only been good for one game in this series.

 

[iCanada]

Another thing I noticed is we keep trying to force zone entries through their overload. If they are overloading the blue line we gotta start chipping it past them and doing the old dump and chase. Get it deep and force them all to turn around and skate all the way back behind the goal line to get the puck. That’s what wears a team over a game. It’s also led to McDavid and Draisaitl specifically taking so many unnecessary hits. I get wanted to enter with control but it’s not going to work 1 on 3. Get it deep.

I don't know if it's necessarily a problem unless we're down by several goals. I don't think they can overload back like that if it's tight and we're stretching them out like we were in game 1 and 2.

The choice they make to make that happen is not forechecking as aggressively and ceding center ice / not contesting the breakout. Not sure they do that if they don't have a cushion.

 

[FunkyChicken]

I went into this series thinking that Bob would probably steal 2 games and that Skinner would cost us 2 games.
Bob stole game 2.
I hoping that game 3 was overlap of both stealing and costing.
Not out of it yet.

 

[oobga]

Now find me one game where Pickard had a -2 GSAx this postseason. That's what I'm saying: Skinner's highs are higher and the overall stats will reflect that, but his lows will lose us games almost on his own, which you can't say about Pickard.

Stuff like that first goal against last night is stuff that makes the entire teams eyes roll and starts hitting the panic and dread button in every one of our players minds. You see Skinner out there freaking out, out of position just randomly falling down in no mans land, and doubt starts to creep in that no matter what you do tonight, you are losing. That puts the whole team on a path to disaster.

Pickard can be beat with good shots or sweet cross ice passes because he's not elite, but he usually is still giving guys a sign that he will not be a total idiot in the net, and if you are playing decent defense he's not going to to something idiotic to just gift the other team goals. He's just going to gut it out to the best of his abilities and not quit, which a lot of the time is good enough and guys can focus on other things aside from how their goalie is going to sabotage them no matter how hard they try.

Oh well though, here we are all in gambling that Skinner has some kind of magic powers in game 4's. Let's see how it goes!

 

[redgrant]

The difference is Skinner always seems to let in back breakers when the Oilers attempt to come back. It’s like we get some momentum and bang it’s in our net again.

Yeah let's be honest both our goalies are not very good. The diffenece with pickard when he's beat its usually pretty understandable. With Skinner it's often soul eviscerating. He lost that second game on the most Stuart skinner of goals.

It doesn't matter who we play Florida will always have the better goalie. This was also the case each of the previous 3 rounds as well so the team needs to win in spite of who our goalie is.

Also management regardless of the outcome needs to do their job this offseason and solve this problem. We haven't had a true #1 goalie since cujo - 25ish years ago.