Fantasy Mock p3

[belair]

how the hell did they sneak in there

They'll be there in two years.

 

[Ainec]

Team	Rank	Average	D	D-Rank	C	C-Rank	W	W-Rank	G	G-Rank
Anaheim	20	185.5	173.6	16	182.8	27	195.9	10	136	27
Arizona	11	192.9	173.1	17	180.7	29	213.7	2	155	20
Boston	25	182.3	160.9	28	211.7	12	183.5	24	158	17
Buffalo	18	186.5	169.4	25	217.6	6	183.9	23	209	2
Calgary	7	195.3	174.6	15	204.9	18	207.2	5	163	15
Carolina	6	195.7	192.6	2	207.3	16	192.2	14	177	9
Chicago	29	178.6	190.9	4	184.3	26	164.9	30	172	11
Colorado	15	189.5	173.1	18	211.2	14	190.9	15	87	31
Columbus	30	178.5	170.7	22	218.3	5	163.5	31	136	26
Dallas	23	182.8	191.0	3	189.7	25	173.2	29	169	12
Detroit	28	178.8	169.8	23	161.7	31	196.3	9	164	14
Edmonton	22	184.1	169.5	24	206.4	17	183.9	22	190	6
Florida	14	190.0	155.3	30	249.6	1	186.1	19	156	18
Los Angeles	26	181.9	170.8	21	214.1	8	174.2	28	184	7
Minnesota	17	187.4	180.8	12	200.5	21	185.7	20	175	10
Montreal	4	197.5	185.4	8	193.8	24	208.5	3	156	19
Nashville	24	182.6	178.3	14	202.3	20	176.1	27	152	22
New Jersey	21	185.5	171.4	20	182.3	28	197.6	7	200	4
NY Islanders	10	193.0	180.7	13	212.1	11	192.7	13	199	5
NY Rangers	31	174.2	149.8	31	164.6	30	197.3	8	207	3
Ottawa	1	210.8	183.2	10	230.1	3	221.9	1	218	1
Philadelphia	2	198.3	184.9	9	233.9	2	190.5	16	158	16
Pittsburgh	13	190.9	172.2	19	211.6	13	194.7	12	165	13
San Jose	16	187.6	180.8	11	197.4	22	187.8	18	154	21
St. Louis	12	191.6	159.8	29	212.7	10	204.8	6	124	28
Tampa Bay	9	193.1	188.9	5	215.9	7	184.9	21	115	29
Toronto	3	198.2	195.1	1	220.4	4	189.3	17	143	24
Vancouver	8	193.4	168.9	26	202.3	19	207.3	4	137	25
Vegas	5	197.0	188.3	6	213.3	9	195.2	11	105	30
Washington	27	181.5	166.4	27	207.5	15	179.8	26	143	23
Winnipeg	19	185.6	186.7	7	194.3	23	180.5	25	184	8

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Hmm so the top 5 teams I picked are 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 15th, 14th
Toronto / Philadelphia / Carolina / Colorado / Florida

Looked at Montreal (4th), Vegas (5th), Calgary (7th)

Calgary - don't like center depth, don't like the LDs
Montreal - not sure if Pavelski can hold up at 2c in the playoffs/next season
Vegas - best team of the 3, possibly better than Florida

 

[Horse McHindu]

Hmm so the top 5 teams I picked are 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 15th, 14th
Toronto / Philadelphia / Carolina / Colorado / Florida

Looked at Montreal (4th), Vegas (5th), Calgary (7th)

Calgary - don't like center depth, don't like the LDs
Montreal - not sure if Pavelski can hold up at 2c in the playoffs/next season
Vegas - best team of the 3, possibly better than Florida

Why didn’t you play?

 

[Ainec]

Why didn’t you play?

not enough time

 

[Panda Bear]

okay. here goes again.

CTOI% = amount of time spent on ice versus players defined as "elite"
CF% = Corsi %, has a correlation of 0.345 with GF%
CF% rel = Corsi % relative to teammates, so a positive score is good
DFF% = Dangerous Fenwick For %, has a correlation of 0.462 with GF%
DFF% rel = Dangerus Fenwick For % relative to teammates, so a positive score is good
GF % = Goals For %
PDO = sum of goalie's save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage when a player is on ice, often used to score a player's "luck". anything over 1000 is lucky, anything below 1000 is unlucky.
Points = prorated number of points expected for player if they played 82 games

 

[Horse McHindu]

okay. here goes again.

CTOI% = amount of time spent on ice versus players defined as "elite"
CF% = Corsi %, has a correlation of 0.345 with GF%
CF% rel = Corsi % relative to teammates, so a positive score is good
DFF% = Dangerous Fenwick For %, has a correlation of 0.462 with GF%
DFF% rel = Dangerus Fenwick For % relative to teammates, so a positive score is good
GF % = Goals For %
PDO = sum of goalie's save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage when a player is on ice, often used to score a player's "luck". anything over 1000 is lucky, anything below 1000 is unlucky.
Points = prorated number of points expected for player if they played 82 games

Thanks for clarifying Panda.

I have a question for you: Are “roles” somehow taken into account? For example - for my team, everyone knows that Skjei isn’t a top pairing caliber damn and that Staal isn’t a 2nd pairing caliber dman anymore. However, that’s how they were utilized last season and so if we’re going purely off of stats, then of course they’ll look brutal. In my case however, I intend to deploy both players in roles that are more suitable to their games (Skjei on the 2nd pairing, Staal in a limited 3rd pairing role). Is there a stat out there that can predict how both guys would perform in those reduced and more compatible roles?

 

[Panda Bear]

added summary as first sheet

 

[Nucker101]

Am I the only dumb SOB that has no idea what most of this means?

More shots = more goals




Empty the clip

 

[Panda Bear]

Thanks for clarifying Panda.

I have a question for you: Are “roles” somehow taken into account? For example - for my team, everyone knows that Skjei isn’t a top pairing caliber damn and that Staal isn’t a 2nd pairing caliber dman anymore. However, that’s how they were utilized last season and so if we’re going purely off of stats, then of course they’ll look brutal. In my case however, I intend to deploy both players in roles that are more suitable to their games (Skjei on the 2nd pairing, Staal in a limited 3rd pairing role). Is there a stat out there that can predict how both guys would perform in those reduced and more compatible roles?

Technically PuckIQ breaks things down into three descending categories: "Elite", "Middle" and "Gritensity," which roughly translates to top line/six, middle/bottom six, fourth line.

I really only care about how well a player does against the Elites since line matching isn't perfect, and there will always be a time when there's a big mismatch.

 

[Horse McHindu]

Technically PuckIQ breaks things down into three descending categories: "Elite", "Middle" and "Gritensity," which roughly translates to top line/six, middle/bottom six, fourth line.

I really only care about how well a player does against the Elites since line matching isn't perfect, and there will always be a time when there's a big mismatch.

Fair enough, thanks man!

 

[Nucker101]

Technically PuckIQ breaks things down into three descending categories: "Elite", "Middle" and "Gritensity," which roughly translates to top line/six, middle/bottom six, fourth line.

I really only care about how well a player does against the Elites since line matching isn't perfect, and there will always be a time when there's a big mismatch.

Honestly it’s a pretty decent formula. I’d just like to see zone exits/entries incorporated since I’ve read that there’s a strong correlation between clean zone exits and clean zone entries and high quality shots. It gives a great indicator of a true play driver.

 

[Panda Bear]

Hmm so the top 5 teams I picked are 3rd, 2nd, 6th, 15th, 14th
Toronto / Philadelphia / Carolina / Colorado / Florida

Looked at Montreal (4th), Vegas (5th), Calgary (7th)

Calgary - don't like center depth, don't like the LDs
Montreal - not sure if Pavelski can hold up at 2c in the playoffs/next season
Vegas - best team of the 3, possibly better than Florida

If we work off data from this season only, Montreal craters to 21 and Vegas to 27. I don't have faith in Pavelski as a 2C anymore either.

Calgary has only one top six centre and a million right wingers. Their only hope of a second line is something like Forsberg-Hayton-Gallagher leaving an out-of-position Bjorkstrand with Matthews and Brown. I don't like their left defence either, but their right side props it up

As for Colorado, they're running a completely dead Dubnyk as their starter. Dubnyk.

Thank Goodness that I'm not espousing this as a be-all, end-all. There are too many teams here with out of position players, lines with duplicated rather than complementary player types, and weird holes.

 

[Panda Bear]

Honestly it’s a pretty decent formula. I’d just like to see zone exits/entries incorporated since I’ve read that there’s a strong correlation between clean zone exits and clean zone entries and high quality shots. It gives a great indicator of a true play driver.

I don't know where to find them for free for every player. If I did, I would have loved to include them.

 

[OB5]

More shots = more goals




Empty the clip

Tell that to the Habs

 

[EP to Kuzmenko]

If we work off data from this season only, Montreal craters to 21 and Vegas to 27. I don't have faith in Pavelski as a 2C anymore either.

Calgary has only one top six centre and a million right wingers. Their only hope of a second line is something like Forsberg-Hayton-Gallagher leaving an out-of-position Bjorkstrand with Matthews and Brown. I don't like their left defence either, but their right side props it up.

Thank Goodness that I'm not espousing this as a be-all, end-all. There are too many teams here with out of position players and lines with duplicated rather than complementary player types.

Ottawa is an anomaly on the list IMO. I don't see how their D/C ranking is so high compared to other teams. Their wingers seem merely OK outside of Panarin. Hellebuyck is one hell of a goalie though.

 

[belair]

Now that the draft is done would be interesting to see the undrafted team.

Names that stick out...

Carter Rowney, Nic Dowd, Michael Raffl, Chris Wagner, Mike Green, Robert Hagg...

 

[Panda Bear]

Ottawa is an anomaly on the list IMO. I don't see how their D/C ranking is so high compared to other teams. Their wingers seem merely OK outside of Panarin. Hellebuyck is one hell of a goalie though.

It's all in the team sheets! It's an unsexy team full of players that are excellent at driving possession who contribute to their teams having more dangerous chances than their opponent.

 

[belair]

Ottawa is an anomaly on the list IMO. I don't see how their D/C ranking is so high compared to other teams. Their wingers seem merely OK outside of Panarin. Hellebuyck is one hell of a goalie though.

I agree considering he was parading them from the get go. He was putting a lot of emphasis on Panarin driving what would've been a big chunk of their offense. That being said, I like what he did with his bottom six to finish up his roster.

Overall I see them being offensively challenged overall and a number of guys would ultimately need to move down the lineup, but they're not a terrible team overall. Far from first though.

 

[Panda Bear]

Buchnevich deserves more respect. I don't think anybody outside the organization knows why Quinn keeps holding him back. He's a legit first line player.

Ideally I would have someone like Wheeler pushing everyone down, but I chose Hellebuyck with my second, Slavin with my third, and traded my fourth for some picks I wasted before I completed my model.

 

[Nucker101]

Now that the draft is done would be interesting to the undrafted team.

Names that stick out...

Carter Rowney, Nic Dowd, Michael Raffl, Chris Wagner, Mike Green, Robert Hagg...

Goldobin would probably get a top 6 spot for sure.

 

[Panda Bear]

Goldobin would probably get a top 6 spot for sure.

Goldobin deserved better.

 

[hockeynorth]

If we work off data from this season only, Montreal craters to 21 and Vegas to 27. I don't have faith in Pavelski as a 2C anymore either.

Calgary has only one top six centre and a million right wingers. Their only hope of a second line is something like Forsberg-Hayton-Gallagher leaving an out-of-position Bjorkstrand with Matthews and Brown. I don't like their left defence either, but their right side props it up

As for Colorado, they're running a completely dead Dubnyk as their starter. Dubnyk.

Thank Goodness that I'm not espousing this as a be-all, end-all. There are too many teams here with out of position players, lines with duplicated rather than complementary player types, and weird holes.

You’re not wrong

 

[hockeynorth]

Buchnevich deserves more respect. I don't think anybody outside the organization knows why Quinn keeps holding him back. He's a legit first line player.

Ideally I would have someone like Wheeler pushing everyone down, but I chose Hellebuyck with my second, Slavin with my third, and traded my fourth for some picks I wasted before I completed my model.

Who even ended up with that fourth

 

[Panda Bear]

Anaheim, who took Getzlaf over players like Hischier, Schwartz, Perron and Gallagher.

 

[Joey Moss]

Now that the draft is done would be interesting to the undrafted team.

Names that stick out...

Carter Rowney, Nic Dowd, Michael Raffl, Chris Wagner, Mike Green, Robert Hagg...

All of them are on the categories league