You're incorrect - it wasn't a 6 team lotto, all teams that missed the playoffs were in the lottery. These were the lotto odds for 1OA:
1. NYI : 25.0%
2. TBL: 18.8%
3. COL: 14.2%
4. ATL: 10.7%
5. LAK: 8.1%
6. PHO: 6.2%
7. TOR: 4.7%
8. DAL: 3.6%
9. OTT: 2.7%
10. EDM: 2.1%
11. NSH: 1.5%
12. MIN: 1.1%
13. BUF: 0.8%
14. FLA: 0.5%
Had we finished 5th worst instead of 7th worst (which would've required losing the final game in regulation, a game that we won 5-2), we would have bumped our odds from 4.7% to 8.1%. And the Isles ended up winning regardless.
A more accurate statement is that, if we'd lost that game in regulation, we would've had the option to pick Brayden Schenn or OEL instead of Naz. The hand wringing at the time was "that win cost us Schenn", not "that win cost us better Tavares odds", because the odds were a major longshot either way. In the end Kadri ended up at least as good as Schenn, IMO a touch better, so that win didn't really mean anything when it was all said and done.