F Michael Misa - Saginaw Spirit, OHL (2025 Draft)

[Rusty8719]

Eh Couture probably would have had a much better career if he went somewhere else.

You have to remember he was playing behind Prime Jumbo, Marleau, and Pavelski early on his career and then when the first two started falling off Hertl entered the picture San Jose had 3 great centers for the majority of his career until the inevitable fall off after 2016

I mean yeah maybe there's a world he's Dylan Larkin.

 

[Garbageyuk]

i honestly dont understand how schaefer has maintained hes number one slot. He was the consensus 1 but it wasnt that wide of a margin, then got injured. Misa since then has had an unbelievable run and i dont know if he couldve done better. schaefer remaining at number 1 just tells me there was absolutely nothing any other prospects could've done to surpass him, which is insane to me.

It’s a narrative based hype-wagon that people have just jumped on because it’s “cool/trendy” - basically a meme take among pundits.

Don’t get me wrong, he’s a great player, and I probably take him at #2, but Misa’s ceiling is just as high as Schaefer’s imo, if not higher, and I think just a safer pick too, meaning I think Misa’s floor is higher than Schaefer’s as well.

Not saying it isn’t close either, it is to a degree, but the combination of Misa’s outstanding season, combined with the uncertainty factor that Schaefer’s injury adds into the mix is enough to sway it toward Misa pretty decisively for me.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Shiny new toy syndrome if he was in last years class he doesn’t go top 3 given the strength of D that class

Couldn’t disagree more. He’d be the first D off the board in that class too. IMO.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

Couldn’t disagree more. He’d be the first D off the board in that class too. IMO.

I love Schaefer, somewhere in the Buium category for me but with less certainty due to injury...but Levshunov being right handed makes him the default first D taken in this scenario.

 

[Hull2Roenick2Kane]

The Flyers raise you a Nolan Patrick and JVR.

what a great draft JVR's was.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Couldn’t disagree more. He’d be the first D off the board in that class too. IMO.

Hard no. LD is already less valuable than RD.

Levs season in Michigan as a first year is already more impressive than the 20 games Schaefer played this entire year against a bunch of 16 year olds in a weak OHL (Nevermind that Lev’s play in the AHL and NHL this year only further justifies it)

Factoring in the big injury there is big debates that he doesn’t even pass Dickinson or Buium

Shiny new toy syndrome is undefeated for some people here.

 

[cheechoo]

It is rather strange that Schaefer entered this year as a top 5 ish guy played like 3 months, got injured and still is listed as the favorite for #1. I feel like if this class had other strong Dmen his stock would have dropped a bit but since he is the only Dman projected to go high it is damn near impossible for him to fall. Shiny new toy syndrome if he was in last years class he doesn’t go top 3 given the strength of D that class

Personally speaking, I never walked away from the 2024 class feeling like I was watching a future #1D in the NHL. They all had dynamic traits that made them unique, but I felt like there were some clear question marks that you'd be leveraging especially with a pick as early as #2 overall in the draft.

I don't feel that way when I watch Matthew Schaefer, and maybe that could be in part because he's not sitting beside a Celebrini/Bedard, but- the elite hands, the elite skating and the swagger of a superstar while being the first man up in all situations (ES/PP/PK).



I see a player that marshall's a blueline for the next 20 years and to me that's worth #1 overall in this draft class.

 

[coooldude]

Hard no. LD is already less valuable than RD.

Levs season in Michigan as a first year is already more impressive than the 20 games Schaefer played this entire year against a bunch of 16 year olds in a weak OHL (Nevermind that Lev’s play in the AHL and NHL this year only further justifies it)

Factoring in the big injury there is big debates that he doesn’t even pass Dickinson or Buium

Shiny new toy syndrome is undefeated for some people here.

I hope you're right and that he falls to the Sharks at 3 or 4. I doubt he makes it past 2 and I think last year he's gone by 2-4, acknowledging that Lev has the RD thing and is just so toolsy, but for me I never liked his decision making and DZ positioning and will believe him as a #1D when I see it.

Schaefer is 2 weeks from being a 2026 and his time hasn't been that limited between the Hlinka and WJC and games in the middle. That's what tips it for me from "maybe" to "definitely this kid". For me, he would have been top of the D class last year, right there and maybe slightly ahead of Buium, clearly but not majorly ahead of Dick.

Misa would be right after. I like the look of this kid, and I'm not sure how people don't think he has a dominant trait. He's a finisher with all around tools to get him or his teammates the puck and then finish the play. I see him as a better upside couture or a worse skating, better finishing Marleau. If we can't have Schaefer, hockey gods willing some franchise still sees Hagens as #1-2.

 

[majormajor]

Schaefer-Misa might have gone 2-3 in the 2024 draft. I feel confident saying that Schaefer would have gone 2nd last year.

I absolutely loved Buium and thought he was going to be a total package #1D, and I still probably take Schaefer over him. Schaefer does what Lev does best - skate up and down the ice - better than Lev does and does everything else much better. Not as thick but more athletic. A full year younger relative to the class. So I can't imagine the Hawks not taking him.

As to why Schaefer is still the clear #1 - I think the injury forced everyone to ask if they were serious about potentially putting anyone else ahead, and the unanimous answer was no. It brought that conclusion forward.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Hard no. LD is already less valuable than RD.

Levs season in Michigan as a first year is already more impressive than the 20 games Schaefer played this entire year against a bunch of 16 year olds in a weak OHL (Nevermind that Lev’s play in the AHL and NHL this year only further justifies it)

Factoring in the big injury there is big debates that he doesn’t even pass Dickinson or Buium

Shiny new toy syndrome is undefeated for some people here.

It’s not shiny new toy syndrome. This was the number one pick in the OHL draft who was a projected top 5 pick despite only 17 points last year. People liked him way before he “beat up the weak OHL”. He’s been a thing for a long time and has elite tools.

“Should Hagens not go first overall, the TSN survey suggests Erie defenceman Schaefer goes into this season as the next best contender.

Five of the 10 scouts surveyed by TSN slotted Schaefer at No. 2, and he was the only prospect other than Hagens to not get a vote outside the top five.

Schaefer is amongst the very best skaters in the entire draft class. He has speed to burn, but he’s also incredibly agile on his skates and can be really quick going in any direction. He’s able to be aggressive with both his offensive forays and gap control because he’s so adept at getting back quickly to play defence.

“I have a feeling [Schaefer] will be a really difficult guy for some teams to pass on at No. 1,” said one scout of the 6-foot-1 3/4, 183 pound native of Stoney Creek, Ont., who was the first-overall pick in the 2022 OHL draft to Erie.”

This was before a game was played this season. So disagree with him being the first D last year? Fine. But you are dead wrong that Schaefer’s rise is shiny new toy syndrome.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Schaefer is the consensus No. 1 because he's never had a bad game according to normal standards. His worst game would have been Levshunov's or Dickinson's best. He's better than Dahlin, better than Ekblad, better than pretty much every top-drafted defense prospect I've seen in probably 30 years. I'd definitely put him in the Doughty-Niedermayer category.

As for Misa, I'm halfway done with his assist audit and only 15 percent were legit dime primaries. Many are simple touches then handoffs to Parekh or whomever is high. I have two months left to cover (pre-Chernyshov). He's heavily slanted toward finisher, even if his assist totals paint him out as a playmaker. He is definitely NOT a pure playmaker.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

wrong thread

 

[Jared Grayden]

As for Misa, I'm halfway done with his assist audit and only 15 percent were legit dime primaries. Many are simple touches then handoffs to Parekh or whomever is high. I have two months left to cover (pre-Chernyshov). He's heavily slanted toward finisher, even if his assist totals paint him out as a playmaker. He is definitely NOT a pure playmaker.

I've heard some skepticism on his playmaking from other sources as well. Curious what percentage do you normally see from prospects that succeed as a 1C? Thanks.

 

[eklund2chicago]

Schaefer is the consensus No. 1 because he's never had a bad game according to normal standards. His worst game would have been Levshunov's or Dickinson's best. He's better than Dahlin, better than Ekblad, better than pretty much every top-drafted defense prospect I've seen in probably 30 years. I'd definitely put him in the Doughty-Niedermayer category.

As for Misa, I'm halfway done with his assist audit and only 15 percent were legit dime primaries. Many are simple touches then handoffs to Parekh or whomever is high. I have two months left to cover (pre-Chernyshov). He's heavily slanted toward finisher, even if his assist totals paint him out as a playmaker. He is definitely NOT a pure playmaker.

Yeah no Schaefer is great but he is in no way better than Dahlin as a prospect.



Dahlin did this as a 16 year old in a top 3 men’s league on the planet.
Schaefer at 16 scored 17 points in the OHL. You can’t really compare that.

Schaefer is my number one prospect in this draft but he is not better than Dahlin.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

Yeah no Schaefer is great but he is in no way better than Dahlin as a prospect.



Dahlin did this as a 16 year old in a top 3 men’s league on the planet.
Schaefer at 16 scored 17 points in the OHL. You can’t really compare that.

Schaefer is my number one prospect in this draft but he is not better than Dahlin.

He's better than Dahlin at this stage. Better defensively, higher IQ, cleaner puck management. Dahlin's been in the league for seven years and no playoffs, and only two seasons with Norris votes, with his highest finish eighth. He's not even the best defenseman from his draft class.

 

[AlternateSideParking]

I've heard some skepticism on his playmaking from other sources as well. Curious what percentage do you normally see from prospects that succeed as a 1C? Thanks.

Can't answer that since it would require a deeper dive into every top prospect. With Misa it's just a trend I noticed from early-season games and wanted to confirm it statistically at season's end.

To be fair, kids like Catton, Smith, Dach, Perfetti, Strome, Vilardi were all quality pass-first setup men in their respective draft years -- better than Misa -- so it's not like it's a guarantee that being an elite passer automatically translates to NHL stardom. My contention is Misa is the best pure goal-scorer in the draft while Hagens is the best setup man, but neither are "elite" in the dual-threat sense as Bedard, Crosby, Tavares, and McDavid were. It's not a bad thing, just trying to clean up the perception that Misa is a complete player. He has flaws just like every other 2025 prospect outside of Schaefer. Misa's passing ability is barely above average IMO, which I wasn't expecting to see as a third-year OHL'er.

 

[Lumber]

Some pretty weak defensive play in that clip of Dahlin wow.

 

[bert]

I love Schaefer, somewhere in the Buium category for me but with less certainty due to injury...but Levshunov being right handed makes him the default first D taken in this scenario.

Schaefer is quite clearly better than both those players. Who are fantastic.... However Schaefer is an absolute stud of a player.

Back to Misa, who should be in the conversation for #1. This guy is a very very good player and a very safe player high floor great ceiling. Every team drools over this type of prospect. Would be a great fit to play center on Chicago with Bedard on his wing.

 

[Fyodorov]

Schaefer is the consensus No. 1 because he's never had a bad game according to normal standards. His worst game would have been Levshunov's or Dickinson's best. He's better than Dahlin, better than Ekblad, better than pretty much every top-drafted defense prospect I've seen in probably 30 years. I'd definitely put him in the Doughty-Niedermayer category.

As for Misa, I'm halfway done with his assist audit and only 15 percent were legit dime primaries. Many are simple touches then handoffs to Parekh or whomever is high. I have two months left to cover (pre-Chernyshov). He's heavily slanted toward finisher, even if his assist totals paint him out as a playmaker. He is definitely NOT a pure playmaker.

Not to make light of injuries and off ice stuff, but you have to play games to have a bad game, which Schaefer hasn't done much of to this point, and won't prior to being drafted.

I am also not sure how you can say his worst game would be Levshunov's or Dickinson's best. Hard to compare with a guy like Levshunov playing a top NCAA schedule, which is essentially two levels higher than the CHL.

If Schaefer is so much better than Dahlin, would you say he's a generational prospect?

/

 

[eklund2chicago]

He's better than Dahlin at this stage. Better defensively, higher IQ, cleaner puck management. Dahlin's been in the league for seven years and no playoffs, and only two seasons with Norris votes, with his highest finish eighth. He's not even the best defenseman from his draft class.

Damn what a stupid post. Dahlin is a top 5 D in the league. He just happens to play on a horrible team. Put him in a better position to succeed and he’d be in Norris contention most years.

And ”hes not even the best and from his draft” is true but I dont see what point you are trying to make. It’s like down playing Malkin and saying ”he’s not even the best forward from his draft class” when the competition is Ovi.

Schaefer is not better than Dahlin and probably won’t ever be better than Dahlin. There is no shame in that.