William H Bonney
Registered User
Perhaps but I'm not sure if it would matter all that much. Yes the NTDP is younger but also much more talented than your typical USHL team. Chicago has 3 current drafted players and will most likely have a couple more drafted this upcoming draft and of course Celebrini for 24. That's 6 players compared to the 13-15 players that are usually drafted every year from the NTDP.
I would not yet call Chicago the best team in the USHL. They certainly are a contender for the league title but Fargo, Waterloo, Youngstown and Green Bay will all have soemthing to say about that,
It's obviously a hypothetical question that can't be answered. But it's more about contextualizing stats, not discounting Celebrini. An elite prospect like Celebrini playing a top role on a top USHL team is going to score more points than almost any NTDP U17 player. It has little to do with which team will have more draft picks down the line. Celebrini's 18 / 19 / 20-year-old teammates are better right now than the vast majority of the NTDP U17 players at this time.
The U17 team will of course end up with more draft picks but if you wanted an elite U17 player in a junior league to put up points, I'd rather have him with 18/19-year-old linemates than 16/17-year-old linemates. Age at this level makes a huge difference. It's similar to why it's important to contextualize NTDP U18 stats in the USHL. That's when your point (draft picks / overall talent) starts to take over because the extra year of physical and emotional maturation makes a huge deal. It's why the U17 team almost always has a poor USHL record and then in their U18 season, they win...a lot, and their PPG rises drastically.
Again, nothing above is to discount Celebrini. I'm not making a projection here, as the context doesn't mean he isn't the favorite for #1 in 2024 or that he won't be a better player down the line if he's not the #1 guy right now. He's an elite player and prospect and wherever anyone thinks he fits into a draft ranking, it should be based on a much different analysis than just simply looking at stats and concluding he's better than another player because of a higher PPG. Given the situation, it should be expected.
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