teravaineSAROS
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F Macklin Celebrini (2024, 1st, SJS)
- Thread starter MMC
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Indeed, Patrick might have been projected as a #2 center for a contender. So you think that Celebrini projects as a #2 center?
I think that Celebrini's achievements thus far in his career are far more impressive than Patrick's were, even more so when we consider that he'll be drafted around 9 months younger. In USHL, Andrei Svechnikov at the same age had 1.21 points per game, while Celebrini had 1.72, for example. Fantastic performance at u-18s as an underager.
I just don't see how he can in any way be comparable to Patrick. At this point, he should have a franchise player projection, not #2 center projection.
Actually, focusing on size and tools burns scouts far more than focusing on IQ. Many later round steals have been IQ-based. Just because scouts cannot evaluate IQ(keep in mind you can become a scout by knowing a former player personally, with no actual qualifications), doesn't mean assessing IQ is a waste of time.
tnfrs
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I dont see Celebrini as a franchise player, maybe he'll impress me more in NCAA this season but outside being a good player I dont see him being the cornerstone of a team, but he'll be an important piece
I think we need to parse “achievement” from “projection” here.
I happen to err more on the side that Celebrini is kinda special. There is no doubt his “achievement” relative to his age at this point is exceptional. His achievement at SSM was on par or better than any prospect his age to come out of that blue chip hockey factory outside of Crosby - this includes guys like Toews, Keller, . His achievement as a 17 year-old in the USHL was unprecedented - even by Fantilli the year before when Fantilli was like half a year older at the same stage.
But I understand the concerns by some here that achievement and elite, #1 overall, franchise superstar skills projectable to the NHL level are not one in the same. Obviously you don’t achieve the things he has without a skill set and IQ that is another level compared to your peers around you at the time. But projecting to the highest level involves more than looking at a graph of NHL equivalency stats for age comps.
If he continues to achieve at this rate level this year at a top NCAA program - those who have a relatively large delta in their current projection versus his achievement will see those two lines start to match up. I think he looks pretty special. I expect him to have a ridiculous freshman season at BU. And I think he’s a potential franchise center down the road - if more at the Seb Aho or Brayden Point level than the Toews, Matthews, Eichel type level.
But I do get some of the questions by some smart folks. And I don’t think it is born out of a desire to knock Celebrini or to say he’s not a great prospect. It’s just some hesitation to crown him can’t miss 10 months out from the draft.
I happen to err more on the side that Celebrini is kinda special. There is no doubt his “achievement” relative to his age at this point is exceptional. His achievement at SSM was on par or better than any prospect his age to come out of that blue chip hockey factory outside of Crosby - this includes guys like Toews, Keller, . His achievement as a 17 year-old in the USHL was unprecedented - even by Fantilli the year before when Fantilli was like half a year older at the same stage.
But I understand the concerns by some here that achievement and elite, #1 overall, franchise superstar skills projectable to the NHL level are not one in the same. Obviously you don’t achieve the things he has without a skill set and IQ that is another level compared to your peers around you at the time. But projecting to the highest level involves more than looking at a graph of NHL equivalency stats for age comps.
If he continues to achieve at this rate level this year at a top NCAA program - those who have a relatively large delta in their current projection versus his achievement will see those two lines start to match up. I think he looks pretty special. I expect him to have a ridiculous freshman season at BU. And I think he’s a potential franchise center down the road - if more at the Seb Aho or Brayden Point level than the Toews, Matthews, Eichel type level.
But I do get some of the questions by some smart folks. And I don’t think it is born out of a desire to knock Celebrini or to say he’s not a great prospect. It’s just some hesitation to crown him can’t miss 10 months out from the draft.
I hope for more hype during the season, so Demidov can fall into the Flyers' hands)
This is an insightful post and I have similar thoughts. My defense of Celebrini is based on two fronts. The first being what you have raised above; you simply cannot overlook his production relative to his peers and others that have been in similar circumstances.
The second is his skillset, where I seem to depart from others. Let me be clear that I don't think he is "can't miss" as that term should be reserved for only the most special prospects. As a Canadian, I focus most of my attention on Canadian prospects, and he is simply one of the more talented Canadian prospects I've watched at this age. His play this year in the USHL and at the U-18 for a 16-year old blew me away. I can't recall many 16-year old Canadian prospects with his overall combination of skating, shooting, hockey sense and defensive acumen. I think the ingredients are there for a special player but, like you, I'm interested to see how he adapts to the NCAA this year coming off shoulder surgery.
That's more or less how I see it. I don't understand how anyone doubts him. He may not have any "jumps off the page" skills, but IQ, skating, shooting are all A+ (almost elite). Overall, he has almost no faults and the sum of the whole set makes him a borderline franchise player.
I really think he's going to have one of the best U18 seasons in NCAA history.
teravaineSAROS
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If his ceiling was Toews with slightly better scoring he'd have a lot more hype. We'd be talking about Selke contending 40~ goal scorer
tnfrs
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Ive been spending some time watching his games the last couple weeks since I said I didnt see him as a top end 1C, but I change my mind now. Especially in relation to the field, Celebrini is def the 1OA hes the fastest skater in the whole class Im almost positive, his vision is above average he can find teammates when the scoring opportunity isnt there for himself, hes got a fkn amazing wrist shot, and his one time mechanics are near perfect, its a hard shot and he can get it off so quickly. I paid quite a bit of attention to his handles and dekes, and while he's not quite connor mcdavid with his handling at full speed he pretty close. He can string together fakes and shoulder dipson the goalie but the same moves arent the best for 1 on 1 against a defender and thats the main different. I think he can probably still improve that area though. Hes actually a pretty special player. And defensively hes got the same compete level as when hes scoring goals. Hes' gonna be an elite 1C, he'll be a faster Jack Hughes with out quite as much finesse and a little bit better compete level. So i agree he's probably going to have a ridiculous season.
HairyKneel
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Lol thanks for the laughs.I might be in the minority here, but my closest comparable to Celebrini is Nolan Patrick. He reminds me a lot of him in the way he skates, the way he protects the puck, hes not quite a power forward, not quite a two way center. Hes not the flashiest stick handler, but hes capable. Doesnt have the absolute best shot but its reliable. Decent speed but I dont see it blowing anybody out of the water the way McDavid and McKinnon can. Celebrini will develop into the player that Patrick could have been if he didnt have a bad head, I think Patrick would have been a good to very good 2C on a contender if things had worked for him and I know that debatable for alot of people but Patrick was never projected as a bad player there were just lots of questions about is health even before he was drafted.
tnfrs
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tnfrs
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Mathieukferland
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Was skating today at the Biosteel
NHL camp in full gear, he must not be far away from a return for the start of the NCAA season
NHL camp in full gear, he must not be far away from a return for the start of the NCAA season
I wouldn't be surprised if he turned out to have a Mack 2.0 type of career as he is very good and trending very well and has the full toolbox for being a very good #1 center in the NHL.
Right now he is part of the Big 3 with Eiserman a winger and Demidov but I would take Macklin if the draft was right now.
tnfrs
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Ya absolutely, I didnt get a chance to really watch him except for highlights but now that ive seen more of his complete game hes definitely 1OA. Eiserman is going to be a great goal scorer and Demidov will develop into a stud Im sure but Celebrini is kind of unreal. He almost has McDavid speed when he really gets going but hes not as smooth with his handles as mcdavid is at high speed. Celebrini still has amazing hands but hes like a half step down from McDavid was at the same age. Away from the puck hes head and shoulders better defensively than alot of top end prospects. I feel like Celebrini could develop more like Crosby if he really works on the two-way side of his game, could be as good at shutting down plays as he at creating them
I really like his game, but I agree he's pretty unlikely to have a Fantilli level NCAA rookie season. What Fantilli did as a draft eligible player was pretty wild, insane production, but IMO that'll be much tougher to match for Celebrini, because:
- Fantilli was just a lot more physically/developmentally ready for NCAA hockey. Fantilli was 8 months older than Celebrini will be, Fantilli was 18 the whole season, while Celebrini will be 17 the whole season. That's a major difference. Also Fantilli was bigger/stronger than Celebrini will be, IMO that tends to make it easier to transition to higher levels of play when you're young
- Michigan were absurdly stacked. Fantilli got to play with Luke Hughes, Samoskevich, McGroaty, Brindley, Nazar (briefly), Casey, Truscott, etc. So many games were 1 sided blowouts where Fantilli racked up a tonne of points. BU are very strong too, but not the same nuts level of high end talent IMO - the talent on D is up there (Lane Hutson and Willander pretty comparable to Luke Hughes and Casey), but the talent at forward is well below. I don't think there will be as many easy blowout points for Celebrini as there were for Fantilli
I do prefer Celebrini to Fantilli as a prospect, by a small margin. I think he's got higher hockey IQ, and a bit higher end skill overall, which I think more than makes up for Fantilli's size advantage. But I'd be pretty shocked if Celebrini had a better rookie NCAA season than Fantilli - just don't see it happening for the above reasons.
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austin63867
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You f***ing idiot
Postulates
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Right, I might buy that he will be as good as Jack Hughes but no way will he be faster than Jack Hughes.
Mathieukferland
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He’s more a powerful skater than Hughes I would say in that MacKinkon type of way but Hughes’ edges are probably better
Marc the Habs Fan
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BU had an intra-squad scrimmage today and Celebrini was apparently unbelievable with 4 goals scored. He and Hutson were already clicking offensively.
Many tweets about it on this account: https://twitter.com/BOShockeyblog
Many tweets about it on this account: https://twitter.com/BOShockeyblog
Terrier
Registered User
I attended and as intrasquad scrimmages go, this was fun to watch. Lots of talent coming to both ends of Commonwealth Avenue these days.
Celebrini's 4-goal effort highlights Scarlet & White Scrimmage; Women defeat McGill
ð¸Scenes from today's Scarlet vs. White Scrimmage courtesy of @graciedave_ pic.twitter.com/sappJHnSBp â Boston Hockey Blog (@BOShockeyblo...
terrierhockey.blogspot.com
