Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
I think many people are not viewing this rationally.
Kemell might have a better season than any 2022 draft eligible. He's probably started better than any 2022 draft eligible in Europe. It's too early to tell about the North American guys. Even if he does, that doesn't mean he's 1st overall or 2nd overall. The draft doesn't work that way. It's not about what you accomplish. The draft is about how you project to the NHL.
Kemell has a few things that work against him. He's a winger. He's below 6'0. This is a strong draft with a lot of high-end centers and defensemen. He also is more of a riser in his draft year as opposed to a guy talked about for the top few spots for years prior to the draft. I would be shocked if Kemell is the #2 pick. When you combine all these factors, a team that had a miserable season, and most likely had the worst record in the NHL is probably going to try to sell their fan-base on taking a center or defenseman at #2. Eklund is a player that a lot of these same things applied to as Kemell. He went 7th. The first six picks of that draft were centers or defensemen.
I don't think it's impossible that Kemell goes second. Second isn't decided yet. But he absolutely won't go first. First is decided. Second likely requires that he have a historic type of season, and then the team that drafts second also isn't a team that has decided they are taking a center or defenseman. I think it's more likely his early start to the season has moved him from a potential top 10 pick to a likely top 10 pick with an outside chance of being a top 5 pick. Some people will think that sounds crazy, but I think if you read this post the day after the draft it'll end up being correct. I say that as someone that been a fan of Kemell's game since the YOG, but I don't see how his draft range is rationally what some state it is.
Kemell might have a better season than any 2022 draft eligible. He's probably started better than any 2022 draft eligible in Europe. It's too early to tell about the North American guys. Even if he does, that doesn't mean he's 1st overall or 2nd overall. The draft doesn't work that way. It's not about what you accomplish. The draft is about how you project to the NHL.
Kemell has a few things that work against him. He's a winger. He's below 6'0. This is a strong draft with a lot of high-end centers and defensemen. He also is more of a riser in his draft year as opposed to a guy talked about for the top few spots for years prior to the draft. I would be shocked if Kemell is the #2 pick. When you combine all these factors, a team that had a miserable season, and most likely had the worst record in the NHL is probably going to try to sell their fan-base on taking a center or defenseman at #2. Eklund is a player that a lot of these same things applied to as Kemell. He went 7th. The first six picks of that draft were centers or defensemen.
I don't think it's impossible that Kemell goes second. Second isn't decided yet. But he absolutely won't go first. First is decided. Second likely requires that he have a historic type of season, and then the team that drafts second also isn't a team that has decided they are taking a center or defenseman. I think it's more likely his early start to the season has moved him from a potential top 10 pick to a likely top 10 pick with an outside chance of being a top 5 pick. Some people will think that sounds crazy, but I think if you read this post the day after the draft it'll end up being correct. I say that as someone that been a fan of Kemell's game since the YOG, but I don't see how his draft range is rationally what some state it is.
