F James Hagens - USNTDP Juniors, USHL (2025 Draft)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1798434567277158523

 

[JotAlan]

Looking forward to next season to see the next leap he takes. He had a pretty "normal" score against ncaa competition last season, while obliterating ushl and international tournaments. What I like most about him is his IQ and the way he scores naturally reminds me a little of Crosby.
I imagine something around 1.5ppg. If he makes the leap and grows 2 inches I see him as a borderline generational talent.

 

[Lou Sassole]

He closes off passing lanes better than about anyone I’ve ever seen in an NTDP uniform and is a great back checker.

It’s also been reported that he’s a freak in terms of conditioning. He broke his gym’s house record in their varied conditioning test- a facility that trains athletes in all sports- as a 16 year old. He’ll likely never be blowing players up or dominate board battles, but all the pieces are there for a guy that could be an elite defensive forward.

You can tell from that video he takes his fitness very seriously, and has the frame to add even more muscle. A much stronger Jack Hughes sounds pretty scary. I can't wait to watch him, Leonard, Perreault, etc.... play next season at B.C.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Wonder how many points he puts up for BC this year

 

[Juxtaposer]

Wonder how many points he puts up for BC this year

You have to think he’ll do something like the 1.70 PPG Fantilli and Celebrini put up in their draft years. Anything less than 1.5 PPG would honestly be a disappointment for me given his cushy situation at BC, as silly as that sounds.

 

[forever1922]

I don't think the points will be a point of contention. The points will come. He has shown his dynamic offense, but I think the consistency is the biggest thing. Maybe the NCAA competition and schedule helps mask this issue somewhat?

Here are some other factors I think teams will want to look at when debating the 1st overall:

Will his line be a carrying force and will he make his teammates better? Perhaps the overall quality of his teammates is so high that this aspect gets lost in the mix and remains a mystery.

How much will he stay involved in the defensive end? Just glimpses or constant participation?

How about the size? Will he be able to handle the bigger competition of college? Or more accurately, what tendencies does he show when the guys are bigger than him, i.e. are those things translatable?

Do you think there is a specific matchup that is interesting for Hagens evaluation? The toughest defense in the Hockey East? BU vs BC?

 

[saintunspecified]

Hagens looks like he's skiing, not skating sometimes - he doesn't lifts his feet as much as other guys. Doesn't look like McDavid, doesn't really look like the Hughes bros, and doesn't look like Barzal & Bedard. The style reminds me of LaFontaine's skating. Looks efficient, but mechanically unusual.

Only injury could keep him from 1st overall. He's got competitive drive, athleticism, skill, poise, IQ, and character. All he's missing is a + shot, and he's marginally undersized. But it's far more likely the shot will improve than they'll be any question at all about the things everyone knows he has. The US U18 team wouldn't have had any shot doing as well as they did without him as a younger player. What he did left all doubts behind.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I don't think the points will be a point of contention. The points will come. He has shown his dynamic offense, but I think the consistency is the biggest thing. Maybe the NCAA competition and schedule helps mask this issue somewhat?

Here are some other factors I think teams will want to look at when debating the 1st overall:

Will his line be a carrying force and will he make his teammates better? Perhaps the overall quality of his teammates is so high that this aspect gets lost in the mix and remains a mystery.

How much will he stay involved in the defensive end? Just glimpses or constant participation?

How about the size? Will he be able to handle the bigger competition of college? Or more accurately, what tendencies does he show when the guys are bigger than him, i.e. are those things translatable?

Do you think there is a specific matchup that is interesting for Hagens evaluation? The toughest defense in the Hockey East? BU vs BC?

If you are asking these questions you don't know his game at all.

 

[PatrickMcC]

Don’t think that the skating is elite. It’s good but he’s not a burner imo. Skill level also really high end but not sure it’s elite. His main strengths to me are his intelligence and shot. Think he can be a good 1st line all around center but he’s not going to be a 90 or 100pts player at the next level. Kinda reminds me a bit of Dylan Larkin, maybe not quite as good a skater as him.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Don’t think that the skating is elite. It’s good but he’s not a burner imo. Skill level also really high end but not sure it’s elite. His main strengths to me are his intelligence and shot. Think he can be a good 1st line all around center but he’s not going to be a 90 or 100pts player at the next level. Kinda reminds me a bit of Dylan Larkin, maybe not quite as good a skater as him.

I think you’re selling him way short. Go compare the scoring of Hagens and Larkin at the NTDP.

His skill level is insanely high. How did he set the U18 tournament record without incredibly good skill? He was way beyond his teammates too, so you know he was driving play at a ridiculous rate. He’s one of those very good skaters where his edges are elite and he has good speed. Doesn’t look like one of the fastest and maybe he’s not, but good speed and great edges can still be a very good skater.

The biggest concern with his game at this point is his height.

 

[Mathieukferland]

The biggest concern with his game at this point is his height.

I would say it would be bulk rather than length. When I’ve seen him play there aren’t a lot of situations I can recall where reach or other things related to length inhibited him. But I do think the concern teams will have is weight, there were several situations across the times I’ve seen him where in close space he’s had issues dealing with far inferior players and getting blown up because he seems to lack the bulk needed

 

[PatrickMcC]

I think you’re selling him way short. Go compare the scoring of Hagens and Larkin at the NTDP.

His skill level is insanely high. How did he set the U18 tournament record without incredibly good skill? He was way beyond his teammates too, so you know he was driving play at a ridiculous rate. He’s one of those very good skaters where his edges are elite and he has good speed. Doesn’t look like one of the fastest and maybe he’s not, but good speed and great edges can still be a very good skater.

The biggest concern with his game at this point is his height.

I’m not saying he’s trash or anything. Like I recognize the skill level is high end and agree that you have to have high skill to earn a stat sheet like his but I don’t think it’s elite skill due to The way he gets his points. He can create opportunities by himself but it’s not special or rare the way he does it plus he uses his teammates a ton. Nothing wrong with that but it’s not a “one-man army” type of skill level that Bedard would have. I think we agree on the skating it’s really good but it’s not elite. He won’t skate circles around his opponents. Like I said, it seems to me that he’s more intelligent than purely skilled. I rate Celebrini at a higher level than Hagens but I don’t see how I’m selling him way short like you said.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I’m not saying he’s trash or anything. Like I recognize the skill level is high end and agree that you have to have high skill to earn a stat sheet like his but I don’t think it’s elite skill due to The way he gets his points. He can create opportunities by himself but it’s not special or rare the way he does it plus he uses his teammates a ton. Nothing wrong with that but it’s not a “one-man army” type of skill level that Bedard would have. I think we agree on the skating it’s really good but it’s not elite. He won’t skate circles around his opponents. Like I said, it seems to me that he’s more intelligent than purely skilled. I rate Celebrini at a higher level than Hagens but I don’t see how I’m selling him way short like you said.

Imagine that, elevating his linemates as a play driving center. What a nothing burger critique.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I would say it would be bulk rather than length. When I’ve seen him play there aren’t a lot of situations I can recall where reach or other things related to length inhibited him. But I do think the concern teams will have is weight, there were several situations across the times I’ve seen him where in close space he’s had issues dealing with far inferior players and getting blown up because he seems to lack the bulk needed

It's probably both that are a slight concern.

I am not as concerned about bulk as I am length over the long haul. He's reportedly a hard worker in the gym and committed already to getting stronger. There are definitely some plays where he's "big-brothered" by better athletes and he can't pull off whatever high skill play he's trying to because some 6'4 210 guy staples him to the boards. I think that's probably going to be part of his hockey career. When you are small, you come up against big players and that poses it's challenges. You can't really fix that. But he's definitely more advanced in this area than players like Hughes and Catton were at the same age, and we've seen for many top prospects that it usually isn't a huge concern over time.

The length one is more limiting I feel for his ceiling. Not to say it will keep him from being a very good player because I don't believe it will, but of course it has an impact. It makes it that much harder and puts that much more of an emphasis on all parts of the game when you are only 5'10. Of course, he can still get taller as he's still only 17.

 

[clevelandcane]

The kid's a stud. Period. Is he O#1? Probably. I don't watch the Canadian kids unless they're in the US. Hagens is definitely on par with the Hughes brothers he's just a different kind of player. He is Joe Cool. He's calm and patient but always in motion with what appears to me to be a really high hockey IQ. The kid is my favorite player at any level.

 

[ValeriKamensky]

Probably I saw him at bad nights. But I think there is lack of drive, which is not a good sign for 5’10 C.
I’d take Martone, Ryabkin and Frondell before him so far. But if Hagens destroys NCAA an will have Celebrini-type season, he will leave no choice

 

[saintunspecified]

Probably I saw him at bad nights. But I think there is lack of drive, which is not a good sign for 5’10 C.
I’d take Martone, Ryabkin and Frondell before him so far. But if Hagens destroys NCAA an will have Celebrini-type season, he will leave no choice

The most charitable interpretation I can think of for applying 'lack of drive' to Hagens is the expectation that prospects should uselessly chase pucks instead of maintaining a structure, or anticipating the play. Otherwise, it's simply wrong.

Logan Cooley, who also was not a mindless puck chaser in the USNDT, is adjusting pretty well to the NHL (surprising nobody).

 

[Dominance]

Hagens has that “it” factor and intense will to make things happen offensively every shift that is hard to accurately describe but characterizes most if not all elite point producers. That’s where the difference between him and Larkin lies IMO.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

You have to think he’ll do something like the 1.70 PPG Fantilli and Celebrini put up in their draft years. Anything less than 1.5 PPG would honestly be a disappointment for me given his cushy situation at BC, as silly as that sounds.

I have some concerns about his productivity at BC hitting those levels just based on his struggles vs collegiate competition last season. I'm sure adding some size and strength this offseason will help handling the bigger opponents, but its notable how much better he produced vs USHL/U18 opponents compared to the NCAA.

 

[coooldude]

I have some concerns about his productivity at BC hitting those levels just based on his struggles vs collegiate competition last season. I'm sure adding some size and strength this offseason will help handling the bigger opponents, but its notable how much better he produced vs USHL/U18 opponents compared to the NCAA.

It will be the critical question of his year. I think he'll probably look just okay in the early going and figure it out as he goes - like Smith as the year went on. The difference is that Hagens probably already has a better two way game than Smith at the same age and is only slightly shorter/smaller but also just as skilled, maybe more so. And he'll likely have Perreault and Leonard, one year older and even more dangerous, to ease him into NCAA.

He will flop, or he will shine and solidify 1OA, or my best but low confidence guess is that it'll be somewhere in the middle and we'll have some uncertainty at 1OA for the first time in 3 years. Still an amazing prospect obviously, so don't get it twisted.

 

[bert]

Hagens looks like he's skiing, not skating sometimes - he doesn't lifts his feet as much as other guys. Doesn't look like McDavid, doesn't really look like the Hughes bros, and doesn't look like Barzal & Bedard. The style reminds me of LaFontaine's skating. Looks efficient, but mechanically unusual.

Only injury could keep him from 1st overall. He's got competitive drive, athleticism, skill, poise, IQ, and character. All he's missing is a + shot, and he's marginally undersized. But it's far more likely the shot will improve than they'll be any question at all about the things everyone knows he has. The US U18 team wouldn't have had any shot doing as well as they did without him as a younger player. What he did left all doubts behind.

Dont agree here, lots can happen in a draft year and he's only 5'10. To be that size and a lock you have to be head over heals better than every player in the draft to be a lock for 1. He is very likely ahead in his development curve than most of the draft based on his height, weight and birthdate. You have to be a Jack Hughes level skater when you are that size to be clear cut away from your draft class and I dont think he is. Or have insanely elite talent and be built like a fire hydrant like Bedard.

I am not saying he wont go 1 or wont deserve it but to say that an injury is the only thing I dont agree.

 

[JotAlan]

Don’t think that the skating is elite. It’s good but he’s not a burner imo. Skill level also really high end but not sure it’s elite. His main strengths to me are his intelligence and shot. Think he can be a good 1st line all around center but he’s not going to be a 90 or 100pts player at the next level. Kinda reminds me a bit of Dylan Larkin, maybe not quite as good a skater as him.

Imo the only thing Larkin is better than Hagens is in speed. Agility, edges, Qi, kick, everything else Hagens is considerably better. That doesn't mean he'll be a 90/100 point player in the NHL, but if he reaches his potential he'll definitely hit those numbers a few times.

Dont agree here, lots can happen in a draft year and he's only 5'10. To be that size and a lock you have to be head over heals better than every player in the draft to be a lock for 1. He is very likely ahead in his development curve than most of the draft based on his height, weight and birthdate. You have to be a Jack Hughes level skater when you are that size to be clear cut away from your draft class and I dont think he is. Or have insanely elite talent and be built like a fire hydrant like Bedard.

I am not saying he wont go 1 or wont deserve it but to say that an injury is the only thing I dont agree.

I understand your point, but he is elite or near-elite at everything, there is no way he isn't first overall. Anyone who believes that someone is close to them is mistaken. Imo, he only won't be 1OA if he has a stupidly bad season or gets injured

 

[JotAlan]

Hagens looks like he's skiing, not skating sometimes - he doesn't lifts his feet as much as other guys. Doesn't look like McDavid, doesn't really look like the Hughes bros, and doesn't look like Barzal & Bedard. The style reminds me of LaFontaine's skating. Looks efficient, but mechanically unusual.

Only injury could keep him from 1st overall. He's got competitive drive, athleticism, skill, poise, IQ, and character. All he's missing is a + shot, and he's marginally undersized. But it's far more likely the shot will improve than they'll be any question at all about the things everyone knows he has. The US U18 team wouldn't have had any shot doing as well as they did without him as a younger player. What he did left all doubts behind.

I had never noticed, but he really reminds me a lot of LaFontaine skating. I feel like he suffers "attacks" with his skating in a similar way to Kaprizov. He won't be a speedy beast like Hughes/Mcdavid, but he is fast, and has elite edges in the Kaprizov mold. And that's, imo, elite skating

 

[coooldude]

I understand your point, but he is elite or near-elite at everything, there is no way he isn't first overall. Anyone who believes that someone is close to them is mistaken. Imo, he only won't be 1OA if he has a stupidly bad season or gets injured

You very well might be right in the end, but if he has a mediocre or even just good season and Martone blows everyone out of the water, he could go 2OA. Or even 3OA if Frondell has an incredible season and worlds, etc. To know for a FACT in July is just a bit too confident, even if it's the most likely scenario.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I have some concerns about his productivity at BC hitting those levels just based on his struggles vs collegiate competition last season. I'm sure adding some size and strength this offseason will help handling the bigger opponents, but its notable how much better he produced vs USHL/U18 opponents compared to the NCAA.

How does it compare to Fantilli, Eichel and Celebrini in their D minus 1 seasons?