Hagens is over-rated...Certainly a very good prospect but No GUARANTEE hexwillbe amkre inpactful pro than several other forwards ranked top 10.
HIS PPG AT B.C. is way below what Celebrini put up at B U. in his freshman sesson in nhe NCAA..this despite Hagens playing for a better team and playing with stud wingers Leonard and Perrault..
He also had worse ppg inthe recent WJC than Cekebrini did the WJC before this lsdtvone..
His numbers at B.C skew to the assists and not goals which indicate he is really benefitting from Leonard and Perrault's ability to score ...A lot of centers WOULD too.
He has always benefitted from a stud team situation...The USNTDP is in effect analk-star team of most of the top U.S. born players...He never was ina situation where as the solo star or one of just a few good players,the pressure to difference'make and carry a team on your back is higher...
An interesting thought exercise...plunk Hagens on a middle of the pack OHL team and do you think he would make any more difference than any other of the top 10 or15rNked forwards for that team?
Hagens really low goal scoring atB.C. for such a highly rated consensus #1or#2overall pick.
Add that he is not that great at faceoffs ...is a bit undersized in height (5'10.5) though ok in weight...but is not really that physical.
He he still a very good player.. but there arecenough items that are not ideal to suggest other forwards could impact more as a oro i the show or at least be onpar with him...
There is no real certainty basis to place him as high as #2o#2..several other forwards have just as much chance of starring i the NHL as he does.
Now if he goes to a situation where the team already has a few stud young guns and he has no solo pressure to be the only "stud" ,he will help that team..like maybe SJ.maybe adding to Celebrini and Smith and other forwards they have coming.. but you could also say SJ adding Martone or Misa or Eklund could help them just as much if SJ was targeting a forward should they not get the chance to draft stud dman Schaefer.
Hagens is very good but so are several other ranked forwards..
It may be as Dave Marr has said that there
really is no consensus top forward.. Several in what he calls a deep draft are candidates to emerge as the best forward in this draft class.. whereas with Schaefer you do get tge consensus best dnan prospect in this draft class...the next dman not even close.
As if (im my opinion)there are 2 top tiers..
Schaefer =tier one
Tier 2= 4 to 8 forwards any of who could emerge as the best NHL forward with greatest impact from this class...though sone will not hot the ceiling hoghtsctgeir ranking woukd suggest.
Given this situation,I think Hagens is over-rated though certainly in that top 4 to maybe as much as 8 forwards I this 2nd tier after tge Certain top level Schaefer is at forctge dmen of tius class.
So I have no qualms putting Schaeferxat #1overall..
After that it may be more team needs and fit and forward pisitjon(C or W) and type ofvpjayer,and size ,and details (ie. Faceoff prowess if a Cebter) ,or defensive considerations,or speed vs strength or a host of other preferences or needs as to how teNs will rank and have preferred targets among this group ofctge best ranked forwards.
I do not see Hagens being "the next jack hughes"as so many seem to compare him to..Ivdo notcsee hin as the solo saviour difference-make or tilt the ice guy..hisxshotvis not that soecial..Speed yes but hevis not as fastcas Misa...Hands =very good..Shot from distance average..Gets close in goals..can set up his wingers...very very good hockey I.Q abd Vision..knows where to go to be open forecheck..pretty good defending ..good compete..Lots to like..But he benefits from
being on good teans with other star players
Not sure he will be elite difference maker or best player on his nhl team .
So there is the matter of team fit::
I just cannot seethe Blackhawks adding hom to an already undersized talent pool of forwards coming ..Bedard,Nazar,Lardis,Kantserov and no way do you add anither shrimp ..besides Hageb is not a faceoff solution if he is 2C ...
Misa atc6'1 185 if hevis 2C is at 54.5% inthe OHL ...so possibly ok for helping get pissesion off the draw and is not a shrimp.
He would be a better fit.
He also scores a lot of hisxGIAJS on 5x5 ..which the Hawks need ..
I personally have Caleb Denoyers ranked much higher than the consensus..SIze with skil and lots of production.. 6'2 173 means he has runway to fill out that frame but to me he already looks bigger at this stage.. I think by
the combine before the draft he coud becan inch taller and 10-15 lbs heavier..
I do not know if Hagens has much to improve on in his game..he is already what he is..abd has been so for a while..
Denoyers has greatly improved his scoring fron his D-1 Q season to this season and has really accelerated his scoring pace in December and January so far..
On pace for a 45 goal 104 point season..but given the acceleration trend ,would not surprise me if the final total is higher maybexaroubd 120 points and 55 goals?
I think he justvkerkscgettong better as tgecsesdon has progressed..Who knows what his ceiling could be?
He is over63% onfaceoff wins..The Blackhawks coud use such s draw Master..
He is the best defensive forward among all the top N.A.rated group off of forwards and maybe among all the forwards in the draft including the top euros..
He exclsvon so many details of the game...He gets free of checkers both carrying the puck and off the puck..he gets to loose pucks ..he is good on the boards.. he uses his wingers well..give and goes..2 on1 rush transitions , breaks free from checkers easily...uses angles well..scores goals in such a variety of ways ...
Some reports claim he does not have explosive speed ...maybe this is why h is not ranked higher...or that his shot from distance is not that special...but he does score goals in a variety of ways..has a good one -timer..has quick hands to get in close goals or pouncing on loose pucks at the crease..deadly finish on 2 on1s and break-aways..Always seems to be in position OPEN away from checkers in good scoring position ..I just do not see any slowness at all ..Skating is good..can also change of soeed/slowdown to pass puck or fool goalies and release quickly ..but the criticism is or was that his shot is not like sone shooters where it goes through layers of defenders to beat goalies...doesn't have to be goidxat that because he gets to open space so much there are no layers between his shot lane and the opps goalie..
So considering all that he does including the fine details ,his production...accelerating scoringbpace,2 wayvgame,faceoff prowess,pace, constantly moving his,feet ,easily getting away from checkers for open looks , etc..so many good attributes coaches would love,I do not understand why he is not a top 3 overall rank or at least top 5 ... but only has a consolidated #10 ranking ...maybe 6-8 on sone lists.
In any case considering fit and need ,size and faceoff mastery plus production plus leadership ..and so much more, he brings morecto the table than Hagens if I were doing a ranking list of Bkackhawks targets...I am still debating in my mind that IF Hawks do not land at #2,for Schaefer,but only end up#2or#3 or#4:,I would be deciding between Misa or Denoyers asa Center targetor Martoneas a power winger target fortheirvpivk...NOT Hagens .