Intangir
Registered User
I think O'Brien right now would probably be a top 15 pick, maybe 15-20?
Without getting into all of the nitty-gritty details, in O'Brien's case the tools are definitely there. His skating is solid overall. and the vision, the decision-making, the skill level; those areas of O'Brien's game all track to be more than above-average at the NHL level.
And those same tools, combined with O'Brien's frame and position as a center, means that he's a virtual lock for the first-round unless he craters completely to end the year. It's well-known that GMs LOVE those types of high-upside players with relatively clear pathways to the NHL that also play important positions. We have countless examples to go off of in that sense.
But the reason why O'Brien probably won't be drafted in the top-10 is that his defensive game, awareness, and off-puck play are not at all refined right now.
As others have said, stats aside I think O'Brien's been markedly better the last couple of games for Brantford, and definitely more well-rounded.
But I caught some early-season games of his for Brantford this year (keeping an eye on him while also watching a bit of Owen Protz), and last year when Xhekaj was on the team, and I actually thought O'Brien was quite rough/raw defensively in those games that I saw.
Moreso considering that I'd watch games of Desnoyers and Frondell during the same period, and the comparisons were not at all flattering for O'Brien defensively, quite the contrary.
Then there's also the fact that right now O'Brien is a bit of an asparagus in how lanky and tall he seems with not a lot of mass to his body physically. He'll definitely need a couple of years of bulking-up before he's ready for the show, that's for sure.
Some might say that it would actually increase O'Brien's perceived value, as he's already a very good player in the CHL while still having A LOT of room to grow into physically. However, I think the fact that O'Brien won't be a quick "plug into the lineup" type of prospect might make some teams opt for more ready options instead in the top of the draft.
Overall though, I still really, really like O'Brien's potential at the NHL lefvel. If given more reps at center, and favorable development, I could see a future in which O'Brien's a successful top-6 C at the highest level.
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