F Gavin McKenna - Medicine Hat Tigers, WHL (2026 Draft)

[Juxtaposer]

I would completely understand if McKenna stayed in the WHL because he's a kid and change is hard for kids and college life is a big adjustment and it would probably move him even further from his family. It's worth noting that both Fantilli and Celebrini had older brothers on their NCAA teams, so they weren't completely isolated from familiar faces.

But McKenna is simply too good for the WHL and there's really no on-ice benefit to playing another season there. If he goes to the NCAA and can't put up a Celebrini type of season, then that would be an indication that he isn't the generational prospect folks say he is and show how far the WHL has fallen.

 

[goavsblue8]

Honestly, I think the CHL->NCAA->Pro path will probably be ideal for most of the top-end talent, but it's just me being sad about the CHL losing those players.

They'll still get them all just at a younger age and for less time and they'll get to attract more americans and not lose the increasing number of high end canadiens they were to the ushl because those kid wnated to play college hockey so bad.

 

[coooldude]

Honestly, I think the CHL->NCAA->Pro path will probably be ideal for most of the top-end talent, but it's just me being sad about the CHL losing those players.

I've said it before, but if the NHL figures out how to negotiate a cleaner path CHL-> AHL -> NHL for prospects under 20 years old (basically removing the 20yo AHL limit and allowing free movement) then it'll neuter some of this, and the very best prospects will jump to the A and get going on their pro career, while the borderline guys will be able to transfer up and down, and you'll maybe only see the next tier of guys deciding to stay in the CHL or go to the NCAA. That's just a gut feel but it makes a lot of sense.

 

[Kingpin794]

Yeah because the chl is where most elite 16 year old canadiens want to play. Truth is most guys have always wanted to do both(chl and ncaa), they just had to choose previosuly. Now that they dont have to choose most guys will try to do both.

Junior aged players. Not just 16 year olds. Going to be quite a few 17 and 18 years olds jumping to the CHL next year.

 

[Bubbles]

McKenna nor no one else is going to the NCAA for their D-1 unless they really accelerate their schooling. Most D-1 seasons are your 16 year old season, which would mean graduating HS 2 years early. If you're a Canadian late bday, then it's only 1 year of acceleration to graduate HS early.

Yes I already knew that.

My point is that no one has "gone early" to the NCAA. If you're a 1st rounder, you're probably going to sign your ELC early, which negates any NCAA involvement. So far it's guys that have 1 or 2 years of CHL eligibility left, and ones that haven't been signed by their NHL team.

So not really a trend at all.

 

[Kingpin794]

I just don't get this idea that these one year windows are going to make or break prospects. That's not how development works.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Yes I already knew that.

My point is that no one has "gone early" to the NCAA. If you're a 1st rounder, you're probably going to sign your ELC early, which negates any NCAA involvement. So far it's guys that have 1 or 2 years of CHL eligibility left, and ones that haven't been signed by their NHL team.

So not really a trend at all.

Everyone on here has indicated that high end CHLers are waiting to the end of their junior seasons to go on official visits and/or commit.

There's a definite possibility that CHLers will make NCAA commitments but then get drafted and just sign pro right away, especially if the CHL-NHL Agreement is modified. Having NCAA commitments as backup options is very common in the baseball world for high end guys coming out of HS, we could see it to some degree with hockey.

I'm just interested to see if guys like Ryan Roobroeck, Jackson Smith, Alex Huang, Cameron Schmidt just automatically sign or if they'd be open to going to the NCAA.

Back on topic, McKenna seems like he's 50/50 on staying in the Dub or going to the NCAA, from what most are indicating on here.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

So a couple of D+1 guys? And a maybe on Martone? Not exactly a trend. We are talking about guys leaving for the NCAA at D-1 or D year. I'm not counting guys that were going NCAA before the decision.

I think he’s just talking about the players for his school, but we’ll see what all of this looks like during the offseason.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Chase Reid would have never gone to Sault Ste Marie if it meant he wasn't still eligible to go to Michigan State in the future.

Not sure I agree with this. There’s no way we’ll know, but I think he jumped ship to the OHL due to the need to put himself in a position to be drafted (or drafted high) as opposed to keeping MSU eligibility. There was a year and a half until his draft and he had already missed the Hlinka team and WJAC team. Players switch paths all the time. The goal for all of them is getting drafted. I suspect he switched because he needed a viable path to getting drafted where it looks like he will now. I don’t know if he could’ve held out any longer with Waterloo. He went to the NAHL. Why not just join Soo at that point? I look at that as he was giving Waterloo another few months.

 

[landy92mack29]

Yeah because the chl is where most elite 16 year old canadiens want to play. Truth is most guys have always wanted to do both(chl and ncaa), they just had to choose previosuly. Now that they dont have to choose most guys will try to do both.

Lol no they haven't, at least out west. Kids here have always only wanted to play WHL then go pro if possible, NCAA was a afterthought except for the few who actually went NCAA. It was always looked as a fallback if they weren't good/big enough to play WHL. Now they can benefit from going NCAA if they're aren't ready for pro(like Mazden Leslie)

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

McKenna has to decide whether getting better or getting drafted first is his top priority.

There’s no guarantee he’ll go to the NCAA and be put in a spot to pad his stats. It’s a lottery in that regard. People don’t care about nuance. He’d be taking a risk to go to the NCAA.

If he stays in the WHL and scores better than last year, he’ll most likely go first (with maybe some minor challenges from other Canadians in the CHL who also pad their stats against junior aged players).

Obviously NCAA would be good for his development, but it would make 1OA for next year more of a question.

 

[Mathieukferland]

Ive already stated this in this thread already, but My personal opinion is that for a late that’s already played portions of three years in the CHL and put up the best season of the 21st century as d-1, McKenna would benefit from an environment where he could play fewer games and focus on putting on weight. His talent with the puck on his stick is near prodigy level and really second or third only to McDavid and Bedard in my memory (the last 15 years or so), but his physical attributes are behind those two at the same age. His skating mechanics have already gone from "average" to "above average" whilst remaining relatively underdeveloped physically, so a constant strength plan at an NCAA school would be great for him, and would help his game transition much easier to the NHL.


My opinion remains that the CHL remains the best option for developing into a good NHLer for pre draft players due to the similarity of the schedule and ice time demands, but McKenna is a special case and I really think the development over pro schedule side of NCAA hockey could really help him become one of the best players in the world

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

McKenna has to decide whether getting better or getting drafted first is his top priority.

There’s no guarantee he’ll go to the NCAA and be put in a spot to pad his stats. It’s a lottery in that regard. People don’t care about nuance. He’d be taking a risk to go to the NCAA.

If he stays in the WHL and scores better than last year, he’ll most likely go first (with maybe some minor challenges from other Canadians in the CHL who also pad their stats against junior aged players).

Obviously NCAA would be good for his development, but it would make 1OA for next year more of a question.

He’ll have his choice of any NCAA program, he can pick one where he is insulted with talent around him and a coach that will give him the opportunity to show out. Celebrini did this, Fowler, Hagens, the Michigan boys, Snuggy. It’s not like these guys are going to UAB, Alaska, or Miami (OH).

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

It's a bit overblown. No one of any significance has left early. There's certainly no "trend".

Re-read what he said, he didn’t say it’s a trend, he said he doesn’t want it to become a trend.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Guys can only play their DY in the NCAA if they're a late birthday and graduate HS (McKenna is a late 2007, thus still graduates HS in 2025, but draft eligible in 2026) or you accelerate your education to graduate HS early (Cammalleri Toews, Wood, Celebrini) & thus play NCAA in your 17 year old season.

It’s become more and more common, and thanks to online classes being more prevalent, much easier to graduate early. If you looking at power 5 college football, a majority of their recruiting class graduates a semester early and shows up to campus in January, and now you have lots of kids reclassifying a full year early to accelerate their development with better strength and condition programs, better nutrition, and access to better coaching earlier. And of course money from NIL as a nice little ancillary benefit.

 

[Bubbles]

And of course money from NIL as a nice little ancillary benefit.

Canadians and non-Americans are not allowed to have NIL deals.

 

[Hazy Little Thing]

Canadians and non-Americans are not allowed to have NIL deals.

And Alabama was not allowed to pay their football players before NIL…

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

He’ll have his choice of any NCAA program, he can pick one where he is insulted with talent around him and a coach that will give him the opportunity to show out. Celebrini did this, Fowler, Hagens, the Michigan boys, Snuggy. It’s not like these guys are going to UAB, Alaska, or Miami (OH).

Not every NCAA program is run and gun junior style and won’t have guys ahead of him for minutes, situations, lines, internal pecking order. If that’s what he wants, he’ll have to choose carefully. NCAA is different from junior hockey.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Canadians and non-Americans are not allowed to have NIL deals.

Apparently the NCAA programs are working on getting it fixed for next season, so they can.

 

[Bubbles]

Apparently the NCAA programs are working on getting it fixed for next season, so they can.

I doubt it. This would involve changing the student visa programs, which wouldn't involve just student-athletes but every international student.

 

[Boonk]

I've said it before, but if the NHL figures out how to negotiate a cleaner path CHL-> AHL -> NHL for prospects under 20 years old (basically removing the 20yo AHL limit and allowing free movement) then it'll neuter some of this, and the very best prospects will jump to the A and get going on their pro career, while the borderline guys will be able to transfer up and down, and you'll maybe only see the next tier of guys deciding to stay in the CHL or go to the NCAA. That's just a gut feel but it makes a lot of sense.

This is what it should honestly be, every path available to every player for the best development. The CHL has no legs to stand on going forward if theyre losing their best 18-20 year olds to the NCAA anyway. They should absolutely vanquish the AHL barrier and let the junior players who can play at those levels move up to there. Players who cant hang at the NCAA or AHL level for that season can still be sent back or deferred 1-2yrs to their CHL team.

 

[macbowes]

I doubt it. This would involve changing the student visa programs, which wouldn't involve just student-athletes but every international student.

Supposedly they are considering having them apply for a different type of visa, something called an O-1, which is granted to exceptional individuals by the US government, who they deem to be bringing in value in some way, due to their exceptional abilities in their field. It could be an athlete, artist, scientist, academic, etc. Of course, I'm not a lawyer, so I can't speak to the actual validity of this as an option, but it's what is being pursued, apparently, as people on this type of visa are allowed to earn money in the USA.

 

[Bubbles]

Supposedly they are considering having them apply for a different type of visa, something called an O-1, which is granted to exceptional individuals by the US government, who they deem to be bringing in value in some way, due to their exceptional abilities in their field. It could be an athlete, artist, scientist, academic, etc. Of course, I'm not a lawyer, so I can't speak to the actual validity of this as an option, but it's what is being pursued, apparently, as people on this type of visa are allowed to earn money in the USA.

I would like to know what constitutes an exceptional ability. Also, reading more into that that visa is intended for already-established people, not student visas.

Speaking of overblown, NIL money to hockey athletes is another overblown thing here. It is an extremely minor benefit to any hockey player. NIL money is mostly to the football and basketball players in the NCAA.

 

[Corso]

I would like to know what constitutes an exceptional ability. Also, reading more into that that visa is intended for already-established people, not student visas.

Speaking of overblown, NIL money to hockey athletes is another overblown thing here. It is an extremely minor benefit to any hockey player. NIL money is mostly to the football and basketball players in the NCAA.

Visa restrictions are tightening rather than relaxing so it will be difficult bringing in college athletes on O-1 visas as those are usually granted to professionals or at the very least those who have already graduated college.

As for NIL, you are correct, it is vastly overblown on this forum and a lot of agents are now advising their foreign born clients to be very careful in accepting any type of payment beyond a scholarship.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

There's no NIL for foreigners, and the idea that will be loosened up instead of being eliminated completely, is a level of political naivete that is surprising.

It's more likely that there won't be any foreign athletes in the NCAA at all in the near future, than that they will be allowed to benefit from their NIL.

If you think that's a wild opinion you may not have been paying attention to anything outside your bubble recently.