Speculation: F - Dawson Mercer, RFA

[Junohockeyfan]

Can you still structure an offer sheet with a painful last year, so the QO will make the next contract negotiations difficult? Throw a 2 year offer at Mercer with a $4.5m AAV (2nd compensation), but the 2nd year is $7m? Probably won't work if you want to get Mercer on your team, but if the goal is to throw a monkey wrench into the Devils' plans, it would probably do the job.

I would just do a 1 x year 6M deal like the Canes did with KK.

 

[Brodeur]

It took a long term injury to Torey Krug to open up cap space and motivation for the Blues to spring into action. PuckPedia lists the Devils with 4.98 mil in cap space.

According to PuckPedia, these are the remaining teams with more than 5 million in space:

Montreal: 5.45 million
Winnipeg: 5.78 million (Cole Perfetti RFA)
Dallas: 6.24 million (Thomas Harley RFA)
Seattle: 6.37 million (Matt Beniers RFA)
Carolina: 6.44 million (Seth Jarvis RFA)
Chicago: 6.68 million
St. Louis: 7.34 million (pending Holloway/Broberg)
Buffalo: 8.45 million
Boston: 8.64 million (Jeremy Swayman RFA)
Utah: 9.92 million
Columbus: 10.9 million
San Jose: 13.65 million
Detroit: 17.65 million (Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond RFA)
Calgary: 19.2 million
Anaheim: 21.7 million

We can probably eliminate Winnipeg, Dallas, Seattle, Carolina, Boston, and Detroit since most of their remaining cap will be used to sign their own RFA.

An offer sheet between 4.58 mil and 6.87 million require the team to give up its 2025 1st + 3rd round pick. Chicago gave up its 2025 3rd in this year's draft. Calgary's 3rd (and technically 1st) are conditionally tied in the Sean Monahan trade from a few years ago. San Jose's 3rd was included in the Tomas Hertl trade. While it's not impossible that they could reacquire the pick, I'm doubting San Jose, Calgary, and Chicago are in the business of risking their unprotected 2025 1st.

So that leaves us with Montreal, Buffalo, Utah, Columbus, and Anaheim. As much as I like Dawson Mercer, I'm not sure those are teams in a spot to risk their unprotected 2025 1st round pick either. And then in terms of fit, I don't know how many of them are in need of a guy like Mercer. Mercer has played some center but has been better at wing.

Montreal:
C: Suzuki, Dach/Newhook?, Dvorak
RW: Slafkovsky, Gallagher, Anderson, Armia

Columbus:
C: Monahan, Fantilli/Jenner?, Sillinger
RW: Laine, Marchenko, Danforth/Brindley?

Buffalo:
C: Thompson, Cozens, McLeod, Krebs
RW: Tuch, Quinn, Lafferty?

Utah:
C: Cooley, Kerfoot/Bjugstad?, Hayton
RW: Schmaltz, Maccelli, Guenther, Doan

Anaheim:
C: Zegras, McTavish, Carlsson
RW: Terry, Strome, Colangelo?

And then if a team without cap space would sign Mercer for the lolz, here are the teams missing (or have conditions) picks:

1st: Colorado, Vegas, Tampa, Toronto, Edmonton, Florida

2nd: Colorado, Columbus, Boston, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Tampa, Toronto, Edmonton, Florida, Pittsburgh, NY Rangers, Dallas, Utah

3rd: Colorado, Chicago, Vancouver, Washington, Calgary, Vegas, Carolina, Tampa, Toronto, Florida, NY Rangers, Ottawa, San Jose, Minnesota

Can you still structure an offer sheet with a painful last year, so the QO will make the next contract negotiations difficult? Throw a 2 year offer at Mercer with a $4.5m AAV (2nd compensation), but the 2nd year is $7m? Probably won't work if you want to get Mercer on your team, but if the goal is to throw a monkey wrench into the Devils' plans, it would probably do the job.

Mikkel Boedker had to sign a revised deal with the Sharks

So remember when we said Mikkel Boedker signed a four year deal with the Sharks worth $16 million dollars over four years? Well, that’s still technically true, but some cap shenanigans have now…

www.fearthefin.com

There's a 35% variance rule where the salary can't vary by more than 35% year to year. San Jose had their original contract with Mikkel Boedker rejected by the league and they had to adjust the salaries slightly to adhere.

I was a little excited to break out a little basic algebra, the biggest variance gap for a 2 year contract with a 4.5 mil AAV would be roughly Year 1 (3.55 mil) and Year 2 (5.45 mil). I don't think a 5.45 mil QO would make the Devils reluctant to match.

Edit: I might have calculated that incorrectly as it is 35% of the Year 1 salary.

Edit #2: It looks like they amended the CBA in 2021 to lower the variance to 25% which makes it even tougher to front/backload a contract.

The biggest gap for a backloaded 2 year, 4.5 mil AAV deal would be Year 1 (4 mil) + Year 2 (5 mil). 25% of the Year 1 salary is 1 million.

Edit #3:

Contract Variability | Puckpedia

There are two sets of rules for contract variability (how much the contract varies year to year) based on if the contract is front-loaded or back-loaded. Front-loaded deals are defined as: -Total player compensation in first half of contract divided by # of years in first half of contract (if...

puckpedia.com

Apparently there are different variability rules for frontloaded vs. backloaded contracts. According to this PuckPedia link:

Back-Loaded Contract Variability:

-The difference between Year 1 and 2 compensation cannot be more than the lower of the 2 years (i.e., the highest compensation permitted in Year 2 is double Year 1)

-For all subsequent years, any increase from year to year cannot exceed the lower of the year 1 and year 2 compensation

-For all subsequent years, any decrease from year to year cannot exceed 50% of the lower of the year 1 and year 2 compensation

So a 2 year x 4.5 mil AAV could be structured to be 3 million in Year 1 and 6 million in Year 2 if I'm understanding correctly.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

I would just do a 1 x year 6M deal like the Canes did with KK.

So you give up a 1st and 3rd to get him for 1 year, and now he's got a $6m QO. What's the plan for next year if he doesn't perform as hoped?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

So you give up a 1st and 3rd to get him for 1 year, and now he's got a $6m QO. What's the plan for next year if he doesn't perform as hoped?

That's the risk you take. The problem is that anything in 2nd round range and NJD will match.

That said, i wouldn't tender an offer for Mercer. I don't think he will pan out.

 

[AfroThunder396]

You're probably not going to draft a player better than Mercer unless that pick is top-15 or probably even top-10. He might not be a play driving star like Hughes or Bratt, but he'll almost certainly be a 30-30-60 for much of his career if you put him in the right situation. A lot of talent, good character. Definitely has flaws but guys like that don't grow on trees.

NJ doesn't really have that many quality wings to spare, if Mercer leaves then you're looking at two of Palat/Noesen/Tatar/Haula in your top-6. The Devils would almost certainly have to make a trade to add a winger before the season starts.

 

[hurdemz]

It took a long term injury to Torey Krug to open up cap space and motivation for the Blues to spring into action. PuckPedia lists the Devils with 4.98 mil in cap space.

According to PuckPedia, these are the remaining teams with more than 5 million in space:

Montreal: 5.45 million
Winnipeg: 5.78 million (Cole Perfetti RFA)
Dallas: 6.24 million (Thomas Harley RFA)
Seattle: 6.37 million (Matt Beniers RFA)
Carolina: 6.44 million (Seth Jarvis RFA)
Chicago: 6.68 million
St. Louis: 7.34 million (pending Holloway/Broberg)
Buffalo: 8.45 million
Boston: 8.64 million (Jeremy Swayman RFA)
Utah: 9.92 million
Columbus: 10.9 million
San Jose: 13.65 million
Detroit: 17.65 million (Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond RFA)
Calgary: 19.2 million
Anaheim: 21.7 million

We can probably eliminate Winnipeg, Dallas, Seattle, Carolina, Boston, and Detroit since most of their remaining cap will be used to sign their own RFA.

An offer sheet between 4.58 mil and 6.87 million require the team to give up its 2025 1st + 3rd round pick. Chicago gave up its 2025 3rd in this year's draft. Calgary's 3rd (and technically 1st) are conditionally tied in the Sean Monahan trade from a few years ago. San Jose's 3rd was included in the Tomas Hertl trade. While it's not impossible that they could reacquire the pick, I'm doubting San Jose, Calgary, and Chicago are in the business of risking their unprotected 2025 1st.

So that leaves us with Montreal, Buffalo, Utah, Columbus, and Anaheim. As much as I like Dawson Mercer, I'm not sure those are teams in a spot to risk their unprotected 2025 1st round pick either. And then in terms of fit, I don't know how many of them are in need of a guy like Mercer. Mercer has played some center but has been better at wing.

Montreal:
C: Suzuki, Dach/Newhook?, Dvorak
RW: Slafkovsky, Gallagher, Anderson, Armia

Columbus:
C: Monahan, Fantilli/Jenner?, Sillinger
RW: Laine, Marchenko, Danforth/Brindley?

Buffalo:
C: Thompson, Cozens, McLeod, Krebs
RW: Tuch, Quinn, Lafferty?

Utah:
C: Cooley, Kerfoot/Bjugstad?, Hayton
RW: Schmaltz, Maccelli, Guenther, Doan

Anaheim:
C: Zegras, McTavish, Carlsson
RW: Terry, Strome, Colangelo?

And then if a team without cap space would sign Mercer for the lolz, here are the teams missing (or have conditions) picks:

1st: Colorado, Vegas, Tampa, Toronto, Edmonton, Florida

2nd: Colorado, Columbus, Boston, Anaheim, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Tampa, Toronto, Edmonton, Florida, Pittsburgh, NY Rangers, Dallas, Utah

3rd: Colorado, Chicago, Vancouver, Washington, Calgary, Vegas, Carolina, Tampa, Toronto, Florida, NY Rangers, Ottawa, San Jose, Minnesota

Mikkel Boedker had to sign a revised deal with the Sharks

So remember when we said Mikkel Boedker signed a four year deal with the Sharks worth $16 million dollars over four years? Well, that’s still technically true, but some cap shenanigans have now…

www.fearthefin.com

There's a 35% variance rule where the salary can't vary by more than 35% year to year. San Jose had their original contract with Mikkel Boedker rejected by the league and they had to adjust the salaries slightly to adhere.

I was a little excited to break out a little basic algebra, the biggest variance gap for a 2 year contract with a 4.5 mil AAV would be roughly Year 1 (3.55 mil) and Year 2 (5.45 mil). I don't think a 5.45 mil QO would make the Devils reluctant to match.

Edit: I might have calculated that incorrectly as it is 35% of the Year 1 salary.

View attachment 901428

Edit #2: It looks like they amended the CBA in 2021 to lower the variance to 25% which makes it even tougher to front/backload a contract.

The biggest gap for a backloaded 2 year, 4.5 mil AAV deal would be Year 1 (4 mil) + Year 2 (5 mil). 25% of the Year 1 salary is 1 million.

I never want to argue with you again. You scare me

 

[Brodeur]

I never want to argue with you again. You scare me

I was going to bump an earlier offer sheet thread on Broberg because I definitely had a similar post on why an offer sheet was unlikely.......and I was definitely wrong about that. In my defense, I don't think St. Louis would have done it without Torey Krug possibly missing next season.

It's a tough thing with offer sheets, ends up almost being like a game of Guess Who in terms of who has the draft picks, cap space, and motivation. And it's not a given a player would sign. Montreal apparently approached Brayden Point who declined and then they talked to Sebastian Aho who was willing.

 

[TGWL]

I don't think there is any other situation out there that creates a good environment for a successful offer sheet with two exceptions:

Arthur Khaliyev with LA Kings. If any team wants him, why bother trading an asset, just offer up to $1,511,701 on a 1 year deal. He already wants out of LA. They only have $1,321,666 in cap space (I'm sure they could make another $775k available by putting someone in Ontario but I don't think they want to pay him that much in any case.

There would be no draft pick compensation either; it's a "free asset" for someone willing to take a chance on him.

Same situation with Nick Robertson in Toronto.

Problem is there aren't many teams that have openings in the top 9. Edmonton would if they lose Holloway, Islanders if Tsyplakov is AHL bound, Avs and Vegas might also.

Kings also have cap space opening up after this year. So take a shot at them and it's potentially opening up the Montreal/Carolina payback scenario, all over a maybe top 9 addition. I think it would be nice to see GM's not care, but it's definitely in the back of your head when you make an offersheet.

 

[samsagat]

Mercer would be the perfect trade target for MTL.
But those teams aren't good trading partners.

MTL have plenty of LHD and picks... but NJ are stacked in defensemen and they don't care about picks, they're in win now mode.

As for an offer sheet, Mtl won't risk their potential top 10 (or top 5) pick for him.

The only possibility that I could see between these two teams would be a trade like (as an example):

Guhle + veteran forward (Armia?) + pick(?)
For
Mercer + Siegenthaler

But it won't happen ..

 

[Xirik]

Mercer would be the perfect trade target for MTL.
But those teams aren't good trading partners.

MTL have plenty of LHD and picks... but NJ are stacked in defensemen and they don't care about picks, they're in win now mode.

As for an offer sheet, Mtl won't risk their potential top 10 (or top 5) pick for him.

The only possibility that I could see between these two teams would be a trade like (as an example):

Guhle + veteran forward (Armia?) + pick(?)
For
Mercer + Siegenthaler

But it won't happen ..

Devils don't need Guhle, The Veteran forwards still left are cap dumps and terrible, and Devils are trying to back into the playoffs this year picks wouldn't do much.


Devils needs are a 3C and if Mercer went a RW and Armia doesn't cut it.

The Devils ask would probably be between

Roy + Evan

and

Roy + the worst of Hage, Beck, Kapenen


Or perhaps the best of

Hage/Beck/Kapenen + something

 

[Brodeur]

When Damon Severson was RFA, he ended up not signing until right before training camp. It didn't seem like the negotiation was particularly acrimonious. It sounded like the Devils gave him separate short/long term offers and the ball was in Severson's court with whether he wanted to bet on himself or have security. Severson eventually opted for the six year, 25.2 mil contract.

Florida extended Anton Lundell for six years, 30 million so that seems like a ballpark figure for a long term deal for Mercer. Obviously more to it than just points, but for a quick comparison:

Lundell: 216 games, 43 goals, 69 assists, 112 points (.518 points/game), 15:49/game

Mercer: 246 games, 64 points, 67 assists, 131 points (.532 points/game), 16:46/game

It's possible that Mercer is still debating if he'd rather take a bridge deal or sign a longer contract. Also sometimes there's almost a game within the game like the other RFAs are waiting for somebody else to sign first to set the market. Ie, Mercer's camp could be waiting on Seth Jarvis and vice versa.

 

[My3Sons]

That's the risk you take. The problem is that anything in 2nd round range and NJD will match.

That said, i wouldn't tender an offer for Mercer. I don't think he will pan out.

He’s already panned out. In a bad year for his team and him personally he still hit 20 goals at 22. He will improve simply by maturation. Maybe he only tops out as a 60 point player but that's still a good NHL player.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

He’s already panned out. In a bad year for his team and him personally he still hit 20 goals at 22. He will improve simply by maturation. Maybe he only tops out as a 60 point player but that's still a good NHL player.

I don’t see him becoming a consistent 60 point player. Probably high 40’s or low 50’s. Ergo, i don’t recommend anyone wasting a 1st + on an offersheet and have to overpay him 6M+.

 

[hurdemz]

I was going to bump an earlier offer sheet thread on Broberg because I definitely had a similar post on why an offer sheet was unlikely.......and I was definitely wrong about that. In my defense, I don't think St. Louis would have done it without Torey Krug possibly missing next season.

It's a tough thing with offer sheets, ends up almost being like a game of Guess Who in terms of who has the draft picks, cap space, and motivation. And it's not a given a player would sign. Montreal apparently approached Brayden Point who declined and then they talked to Sebastian Aho who was willing.

Major nostalgia

 

[Jared Dunn]

Wouldnt be shocked the biggest reason the other offersheets happened were because Stan Bowman is now the GM and other gms around the league arent afraid to step on his toes, or hell, they may even want to for a bit.

What is this fairytale on here that somehow the rest of the league are white knights and not just Stan's drinking buddies

As far as the offersheet question, I don't really see how New Jersey is in any kind of salary pickle with this, they have close to 5 million in cap space and Mercer just had a season of regression

 

[My3Sons]

I don’t see him becoming a consistent 60 point player. Probably high 40’s or low 50’s. Ergo, i don’t recommend anyone wasting a 1st + on an offersheet and have to overpay him 6M+.

That’s fair. He’s a complementary player so his line mates will have a lot to do with his scoring. My expectation is that he will be playing with Jack Hughes and have good scoring chances but we will see.

 

[HockeyScotty]

Kings also have cap space opening up after this year. So take a shot at them and it's potentially opening up the Montreal/Carolina payback scenario, all over a maybe top 9 addition. I think it would be nice to see GM's not care, but it's definitely in the back of your head when you make an offersheet.

Sure, but I don't think Kaliyev is going to drive that response. Perhaps the threat of an offer sheet can lower the asking price in a trade to a mid round pick

 

[Petes2424]

Wouldnt be shocked the biggest reason the other offersheets happened were because Stan Bowman is now the GM and other gms around the league arent afraid to step on his toes, or hell, they may even want to for a bit.

It’s funny you mention that.

Don’t be surprised if we start hearing that Armstrong actually spoke to some other managers, to see how they would feel about the Blues doing what they’ve done, and were pleasantly surprised with the response.

Not only in regards to Bowman being hired, but there’s managers who do not get along with Jackson. He’s burned bridges over the years, then (so easily) hires someone who left such a stain on the profession. Not to mention, he also seems to have no problem throwing a very respected manager under the bus whenever he gets a chance. A manager many current GMs worked for over the years.

The fact it was Armstrong who did this, says a lot. This wasn’t your normal offer sheet situation.

 

[wetcoast]

In light of the recent offer sheets to Holloway and Broberg, it's kind of surprising that teams have yet to take a run at him.

Thanks to two more overpayments in free agency the Devils are boxed in by the salary cap and would have a hard time matching an offer.

Most teams are reluctant to break the code of RFA signings and are also under the same Cap restraints as all other teams even if currently they could absorb the hit.

It's the what goes around comes around theory.

 

[Djp]

In light of the recent offer sheets to Holloway and Broberg, it's kind of surprising that teams have yet to take a run at him.

Thanks to two more overpayments in free agency the Devils are boxed in by the salary cap and would have a hard time matching an offer.

If a team signs him to s similar max 2 yr bridge contract...NJ has thr dpacr to match. Next year the only contract they have I'd Hughes on D

 

[byrath]

Not sure what caused him to get only 13 assists last year, but he looks like a solid 2nd liner with room to grow yet. Gets regular PK time, so I guess he's pretty good defensively. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him improve on his 56 point season, depending on linemates and PP time. A 1-5 year OS at 6-6.5m AAV wouldn't be a terrible idea if there was a good team with the need, cap space and required picks.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

You're probably not going to draft a player better than Mercer unless that pick is top-15 or probably even top-10. He might not be a play driving star like Hughes or Bratt, but he'll almost certainly be a 30-30-60 for much of his career if you put him in the right situation. A lot of talent, good character. Definitely has flaws but guys like that don't grow on trees.

NJ doesn't really have that many quality wings to spare, if Mercer leaves then you're looking at two of Palat/Noesen/Tatar/Haula in your top-6. The Devils would almost certainly have to make a trade to add a winger before the season starts.

You have to factor in that New Jersey would likely find a way to match anything reasonable.

A 9.16M AAV contract would probably be what it takes to get him. If a team has 9.16M an unprotected 1st, and a 2nd+3rd to throw around, they can probably make it work better for them than overpaying an RFA on an offer sheet.

The reason the Broberg and Holloway offer sheets were good for the Blues is because they only have to give up a 2nd+3rd+(3rd for 5th swap) in compensation. So the short term overpayment in cap is offset by getting the players for less than what the trade value for comparable young NHLers would have been in assets.

 

[Brodeur]

Not sure what caused him to get only 13 assists last year, but he looks like a solid 2nd liner with room to grow yet. Gets regular PK time, so I guess he's pretty good defensively. I wouldn't be too surprised to see him improve on his 56 point season, depending on linemates and PP time. A 1-5 year OS at 6-6.5m AAV wouldn't be a terrible idea if there was a good team with the need, cap space and required picks.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

NHL line combinations, NHL lineups from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

In 2022-23, Mercer was on a productive line with Tomas Tatar and Nico Hischier. Last year they tried to see if Mercer could drive his own line and that mostly was unsexy.

If this Dobber tool is correct, Mercer's most common 5 on 5 linemates last season were:

As I remember it, a lot of that was with when Meier was playing hurt in the first half, so Mercer's line was a non-factor. And then our PP2 last year was particularly ineffective. Not sure if it was a chicken or the egg situation, but Mercer dropped from 8 PP assists the year before to 1 last season. Getting a healthy Dougie Hamilton back would help.

We'll see if the new coaching staff tries to reunite the Tatar-Hischier-Mercer line that was solid in 2022-23. I don't think I'm going out on much of a limb by thinking more time with Hischier or Hughes would help Mercer's production.

In earlier post I noted that there's limited teams who have 6 mil in cap space and have the required picks. Most of those teams aren't really in a spot to risk an unprotected 1st as compensation.

 

[MTL Dirty Birdy]

That's the risk you take. The problem is that anything in 2nd round range and NJD will match.

That said, i wouldn't tender an offer for Mercer. I don't think he will pan out.

You don’t think he’ll pan out? He has 3 20+ goal seasons under his belt by 22. The kid will be a top six player his whole career. When you watch him play he’s always visible. Just lower on lineup opportunities on a stacked team

 

[BondraTime]

He’s going to be a core member of the Devils for the next 7 years, he’s going to be locked up pretty soon

If I cheered for a team who was in a position to offer sheet him, which I don’t, I’d be extremely pleased to have a GM trying to pry Mercer away.