Expectations for the rest of this season under Jacques Martin

[Dan Patrick]

Going to guess we end up with 5th-8th overall (28th-24th in the league). Don’t see us continuing to be worse than Anaheim, Chicago, San Jose or Columbus. Also getting Pinto and maybe Chabot back in February will give us another bump and we usually finish the year strong.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Well, if they're going to get back in to it, they're gonna have to do what Edmonton did and win a whole bunch in a row, and fast.

More likely, they're too far behind, but hopefully we see some positive progression.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

People will now turn against many players cause Martin has the "total immunity card" until the end of the season because everything is Pierre Dorion and DJ Smith's fault.

This is Dorion's roster and DJ's team: anything to do with how our roster came together and how it was performing was on them.

Now we have a new, and likely better, coach. We shall see how much of a difference he and Alfie make but I don't expect them to be big difference makers because I think this roster just isn't very good.

Good players, bad team. Too many lefties, too young and too soft
EDIT: To be fair, I was happy with how the team looked on paper until very recently. I just think I ended up being wrong, the roster doesn't perform. A better coach will help but we are not a good coach away from making the playoffs. More moves probably need to be made.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Thanks for sharing. This was interesting & well worth listening to.

This guy focuses on goaltending performance and uses 34 different stats/metrics.

One of the points being made is that the reads that Ottawa goaltenders have to make to be effective are impacted and worse because the defenders in front of them are too unpredictable. Senators are the 29th in high danger chances allowed. Towards the end of this interview was the short & important summary = "the environment matters".

 

[Relapsing]

Well, if they're going to get back in to it, they're gonna have to do what Edmonton did and win a whole bunch in a row, and fast.

More likely, they're too far behind, but hopefully we see some positive progression.

The crazy little guy on my left shoulder is saying "yeah, they are last in their division, but if they go on a heater and win all 6 games in hand they have on Tampa, they're in 5th place and only a point behind them!"...

... whereas my sane little buddy on my right shoulder is prepping a straightjacket for the other dude.

Their one saving grace is the games in hand they still have on the rest of the division. I would like to believe they can get their shit together in the time it will take for those games to even out (we're on par with Tampa in 12 weeks), but yeah, they're too far behind.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The crazy little guy on my left shoulder is saying "yeah, they are last in their division, but if they go on a heater and win all 6 games in hand they have on Tampa, they're in 5th place and only a point behind them!"...

... whereas my sane little buddy on my right shoulder is prepping a straightjacket for the other dude.

Their one saving grace is the games in hand they still have on the rest of the division. I would like to believe they can get their shit together in the time it will take for those games to even out (we're on par with Tampa in 12 weeks), but yeah, they're too far behind.

 

[bicboi64]

The PK can't get any worse so a fair expectation is the PK gets better lol

 

[Relapsing]

All I expect now is that whatever the core of this team is moving forward figures out how to play at the NHL level. Everyone else will get jettisoned at the deadline or in the offseason.

Shouldn't matter if they have a letter or not. No one has any allegiances to these kids anymore. As a fan, my ties are quickly slipping away. If someone can't figure it out, make way for someone that can.

All that matters in this league are results. Everything else is meaningless in the face of that.

 

[dpw]

Despite the diarrhea show, I really like how busy the coaches appear to be behind the bench.

 

[bert]

Despite the diarrhea show, I really like how busy the coaches appear to be behind the bench.

This made me laugh. I wonder what that room is like right now. Tough situation for the coaching staff to go into. This team has 0 confidence.

 

[bert]

This guy knows what he is talking about. I was sold when he broke down the difference between Talbot and Gustavsson and their current success. Backs up everything the pro goalie coach I used to shoot for says and preaches. The one that really got away.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

This guy knows what he is talking about. I was sold when he broke down the difference between Talbot and Gustavsson and their current success. Backs up everything the pro goalie coach I used to shoot for says and preaches. The one that really got away.

He came on when Groulx was fired/reassigned wrt Murray woes in the early days here. I have followed him some.. certainly respectable goalie resource,

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Ian, what does success look like, realistically, this season with this significant of a change? —Patrick S.

Great question, Patrick.

I think we need to redefine success for the Senators, because I don’t think a playoff berth is a realistic possibility at this point. I always said I would remain hopeful while the Sens were in the double-digits in Dom Luszczyszyn’s projection model. And as recently as two weeks ago, they were hovering around a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. But this recent losing streak has plunged their playoff odds into the five per cent range. So I think it’s time we concede that only a Hamburglar-type run would save their season.

To me, success in the next four months won’t be defined by wins and losses. The key is trying to figure out who you can win with on this roster. Are the players willing to buy into a new system and structure? These next 50 games should tell us which players the Senators should move forward with — and which ones they should move on from. If they can accomplish that goal of identifying the right players to hang onto, this should be deemed a successful season.

 

[Joeffice]

My only expectation is for Martin to start to undo the damage incurred by 5+ years of Smith letting teenagers run the team how they want.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

This but I also want the team finishing better than 86 pts. On paper the team is better than last year so need to see some progress

They’re currently on 83 point pace, so will need to “up their game” and maintain a higher PTs% for the rest of the season to make the jump to a > 86 point pace.

 

[JD1]

So, expectations are an interesting topic when it comes to this team.

Going into the year, my expectations were that we build off the positives from last season, and ideally improve our place in the standings, so from 86 pts to ~94 at the end of the year. In order to get there I thought we'd need to reduce the number of chances we give up.

Last year, we had an xGA/60 of 3.14 all situations, good for 18th in the league.
This year, we're at 2.91 xGA/60, good for 9th. Part of the reason for this improvement is we drastically cut back on how many penalties we take compared to last year, but the problem is our GA/60 all situations still went up from 3.26 (20th) to 3.42 (27th)

DJ mentioned something about us being 7th best in slot chances against, another stat I never would have expected but our issues seems to be spurts of catastrophic breakdowns rather than prolonged poor play.

So looking at how we got where we are, what should we expect moving forward, well I think Martin is going to have to get the team focusing on the details to bring consistency, because there are things we do well, if not consistently.

Finish our checks, all the time. This will keep guys engaged, you don't need to be crushing guys every shift, but no free rides.
manage our line changes better, this has plagued us this year, and it's completely mental.
manage the puck better, get it deep especially late on shifts, no turnovers at the blue line ect
Don't try and do other guys jobs, as soon as you start trying to to do someone elses job, you aren't doing your own.

Any idea where you can find the slot chances against stat? Was looking for that stat the other day and couldn't find it.

 

[Micklebot]

Any idea where you can find the slot chances against stat? Was looking for that stat the other day and couldn't find it.

I believe it's from sportLogiq so no publically available

 

[Samsquanch]

My expectations for the season are shot as far the playoffs go. And yet if you wade through all of the bullshit, there's still some big positives that we can be happy about going forward.

Joseph is a straight up beast. Norris is gonna be okay and is nearly back on track to becoming the player he was. Same with Batherson and Zub. Greig, JBD and Branny are all legit NHLers. We survived the loss of Pinto, but will be so much deeper when he gets back. A huge down year for Stutzle is still a PPG and plus player....

Look at Vancouver this year. New Jersey last year. LA too. It's extremely fair to say that if you have the right pieces in place, the transition from a rebuilding team into a legit contender can happen over one offseason.

Staying consistently elite much harder to do, as new jersey is seeing firsthand. But my point stands that even if we miss out this year, it doesn't change what's going to happen next season, or limit the teams potential.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

This guy knows what he is talking about. I was sold when he broke down the difference between Talbot and Gustavsson and their current success. Backs up everything the pro goalie coach I used to shoot for says and preaches. The one that really got away.

I agree. The guy in the interview focuses on goalie performance and uses 34 different stats to analyze. His conclusion at the end of video is "the environment matters" and he provides a lot of info to back that up.

 

[Rals]

Slacking for Maclin

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

 

[coladin]

I am hoping Ottawa stays as a lottery team.

Look, I am in a frustrated mood today, after watching that game, with alllllllll those poor souls last night. This is how I think this seaosn can set up this team:

1. Colorado had a bunch of their core together and tanked and got Makar

2. Jersey had a bunch of their core pieces and won the lottery and got Hughes & Hughes,

We can tank this year and hopefully win the f***ing lottery for once. Add apiece like that to the core, a proper training camp under a new regime and things can turn in a hurry.

They will unload Kubalik, Brannstrom, and maybe with Tarasenko if he consents (which he no doubt will want to get out of here). Tank is coming

 

[JD1]

I'm hoping we're a lottery team too.

It's looking to me like the core we have is simply not up to the task.

 

[Ice-Tray]

Still can’t believe we lost the pretty each year. Look at NJ with their lottery wins, especially when they had no business picking that high.

Kinda makes me mad. Which is easy after a game like last night.