Prospect Info: Everything Edvinsson

[Sombastate]

Just genuine question:

My girlfriend is German so we watch the teams with high end Germans (Seider). Was always curious about Simon Evinsson. Does he have a higher upside than Seider? Higher upside than ASP? What’s the rose colored glass view versus the pessimistic view of him?

Thanks in advance!

 

[Snuggs]

Moritz Seider is better and has a higher upside. That being said, Edvinsson is still very good, 1st D potential on a lot of teams. It'll be a luxury going forward. Seiders listed at like 205, but he's got to be bigger than that, he's also very strong and imo stronger than Edvinsson right now. Edvinsson can pack on weight, but it'll be interesting to see if it slows his mobility...

I always compared the two players to Rob Blake (Seider) and Tyler Meyers (Edvinsson), though I acknowledge the upside potential on Edvinsson to be even better, Meyers is still a very good solid NHL'er for a long time. That's just how I compare the two. Who knows what I know about anything.

I haven't seen a ton of ASP, people who watch the draft guys likely have better idea. I see a lot of AHL/NHL games, in-laws live just north of Grand Rapid and sometime drive to Flint to see the firebirds for cheap. People in my house barely let me watch Netflix by myself on TV let alone have the time to stream a whole international hockey game, OHL, etc, on the computer. Idk much about the young fellas not in the AHL.

 

[norrisnick]

Just genuine question:

My girlfriend is German so we watch the teams with high end Germans (Seider). Was always curious about Simon Evinsson. Does he have a higher upside than Seider? Higher upside than ASP? What’s the rose colored glass view versus the pessimistic view of him?

Thanks in advance!

No one in our organization has higher upside than Edvinsson. Can he get there? Probably not, but his toolkit is unmatched. Rose colored view? Victor Hedman/Larry Robinson. Pessimistic view of him? Tyler Myers/Darnell Nurse.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Just genuine question:

My girlfriend is German so we watch the teams with high end Germans (Seider). Was always curious about Simon Evinsson. Does he have a higher upside than Seider? Higher upside than ASP? What’s the rose colored glass view versus the pessimistic view of him?

Thanks in advance!

My opinion is pretty similar to Norris Nick's. I think Edvinsson has higher upside than Seider, but he's pretty unlikely to reach it. If he does, he becomes that offensively elite, puck rushing and defensively suffocating huge, all around Victor Hedman type.

Right now it's unclear how well he'll do defending against the best of the best and how well he'll be able to transition his offense to the NHL. I think there's a lot of scenarios where he's sort of a #3 defenseman if he can't follow through in some way. He could be that offensive second pair guy that you can't quite trust against top competition or that solid second pair guy that doesn't produce quite enough to justify more minutes. Those are his likely development scenarios for me.

If his development totally stops, I think right now he's debatably a second pairing guy already. He'd be something along the lines of Ristolainen or Tyler Myers in that case-a huge 2nd/3rd pairing tweener that teams treat like a 1st/2nd pairing tweener because GMs are size queens.

More specific breakdown: Edvinsson has the tools to do it all. In his young NHL career, he hasn't yet put it altogether. Moments of disengagement have led to dropped coverages and turnovers. He's had some good puck rushes, but doesn't yet have the confidence to just go for it all the time. We haven't seen how consistently he can beat NHL goalies with his shot and NHL coverage with his passes, but he's shown that he can do both. He absolutely annihilated the AHL as the "I am the perfect NHL defenseman that can do anything" type. It's mostly just about staying mentally engaged all the time and learning how to apply his amazing tools to NHL ice.

 

[jaster]

"Upside" is a tough one, because a lot of players have tremendous upside that they have a tiny chance of reaching. I think of upside and downside as a bell curve. I'm not really interested in those 1-2% snippets at the ends. What's the realistic projection, is my typical question in these cases. And the realistic projection for Ed is that he winds up as a #2 to Seider's #1. I think the upper end of Edvinsson's realistic projection is being of roughly equal value to Seider. I hope he gets there, but I don't ever see him as being better. And that's not a knock on Ed, I just think Seider is more special than a lot of posters here.

 

[HisNoodliness]

"Upside" is a tough one, because a lot of players have tremendous upside that they have a tiny chance of reaching. I think of upside and downside as a bell curve. I'm not really interested in those 1-2% snippets at the ends. What's the realistic projection, is my typical question in these cases. And the realistic projection for Ed is that he winds up as a #2 to Seider's #1. I think the upper end of Edvinsson's realistic projection is being of roughly equal value to Seider. I hope he gets there, but I don't ever see him as being better. And that's not a knock on Ed, I just think Seider is more special than a lot of posters here.

I'll say that even though I just said that Edvinsson has more upside than Seider, I totally agree that 1 Seider is already special, 2 Seider himself still has room to grow and 3 Edvinsson, even if he develops very well, is extremely likely to be the #2 to Seider's #1. I just think that based upon his tools, Seider's best case scenario is as that physical 2 way D that totally dominated defensively while being a strong PP and offensive zone player. Whereas Edvinsson has the tools to be nearly as dominant defensively, less physical, and a special offensive player as well. He could have point per game seasons I think, and do it while shutting down top competition. He isn't particularly likely to have every facet of his development hit like that, but it could happen.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Just genuine question:

My girlfriend is German so we watch the teams with high end Germans (Seider). Was always curious about Simon Evinsson. Does he have a higher upside than Seider? Higher upside than ASP? What’s the rose colored glass view versus the pessimistic view of him?

Thanks in advance!

There's upside and then there's likelihood of reaching your upside...

Lot of people thought Ed was going to be better than Seider a couple years ago but that's quieted down. I doubt he will be, but I also think Seider is a Top 10 defenseman in his prime, with a small possibility at Top 5. Ed? I think he'll be exceptional either as Seider's partner or splitting time on another pairing to compensate when Seider is not on the ice. I doubt he becomes any worse than a very good 2nd pairing D.

And then on the very heavy extreme... There's ASP, who probably has the highest ceiling of anybody in the organization, but a very slim chance of hitting it. He could be Quinn Hughes. (Quinn's skating makes that very unlikely) He could be Nils Lundkvist.

 

[Frk It]

Can someone tell me why they think Edvinsson has a lower chance of reaching his upside instead of 5 different people just repeating the same thing?

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Can someone tell me why they think Edvinsson has a lower chance of reaching his upside instead of 5 different people just repeating the same thing?

Depends what you consider his upside to actually be.

If you consider his upside "better than Seider" I'd say his decision making at the NHL level leaves that a long shot. He makes occasional bonehead plays. Seider does too, sometimes, but Seider's assignments were also absurd last season.

 

[Sombastate]

Thanks all for the responses. The older i get, the harder it is to keep up with other people's prospects.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Can someone tell me why they think Edvinsson has a lower chance of reaching his upside instead of 5 different people just repeating the same thing?

I’m not one of the above posters and I’m not big on defined “upside” or “ceiling” in the first place. But if the conversation is whether Edvinsson can develop into a better player than Seider, my reservation is that (from my viewings) Edvinsson is less likely than Seider to really thrive as a first unit powerplay quarterback. I could see Edvinsson, on a good development curve, being as good on the penalty kill or as good in 5v5 play and transition play. But I think Seider in his D+2 on Rogle and his D+3 in Detroit showed better growth leading the powerplay.

I could be underestimating Edvinsson there, I didn’t catch as much of GR as I’d have liked to. But that to me is the differentiator.

 

[Frk It]

I’m not one of the above posters and I’m not big on defined “upside” or “ceiling” in the first place. But if the conversation is whether Edvinsson can develop into a better player than Seider, my reservation is that (from my viewings) Edvinsson is less likely than Seider to really thrive as a first unit powerplay quarterback. I could see Edvinsson, on a good development curve, being as good on the penalty kill or as good in 5v5 play and transition play. But I think Seider in his D+2 on Rogle and his D+3 in Detroit showed better growth leading the powerplay.

I could be underestimating Edvinsson there, I didn’t catch as much of GR as I’d have liked to. But that to me is the differentiator.

Yeah, I guess I am looking at Edvinsson like he is both a high floor and a high ceiling guy. And I don't really see a ton of things missing from his game that prohibits the ceiling.

I think he is a very good bet to be a 22+ minute guy in the NHL. The only sort of question for me is how much offense is he going to provide, and how much does he get featured on the power play. So I think that is fair to question, to a degree.

We are going to have to see how he looks with a bigger sample size. I never would have thought Seider would have hit 50 pts as early as he did. Again, I don't really see much missing from Edvinsson's game that makes me question him reaching a pretty high level as a player.

Depends what you consider his upside to actually be.

If you consider his upside "better than Seider" I'd say his decision making at the NHL level leaves that a long shot. He makes occasional bonehead plays. Seider does too, sometimes, but Seider's assignments were also absurd last season.

Yeah, as you point out Seider does this too. I am not too worried about it with either one.

They aren't going to have the IQ or decision making of someone like Lidstrom. But they don;t have to... they are both insane athletes with plus size. So they are going to be a pain in the ass to play against for other teams in big minute roles, even if they have their occasional gaffes.

There's upside and then there's likelihood of reaching your upside...

Lot of people thought Ed was going to be better than Seider a couple years ago but that's quieted down. I doubt he will be, but I also think Seider is a Top 10 defenseman in his prime, with a small possibility at Top 5. Ed? I think he'll be exceptional either as Seider's partner or splitting time on another pairing to compensate when Seider is not on the ice. I doubt he becomes any worse than a very good 2nd pairing D.

And then on the very heavy extreme... There's ASP, who probably has the highest ceiling of anybody in the organization, but a very slim chance of hitting it. He could be Quinn Hughes. (Quinn's skating makes that very unlikely) He could be Nils Lundkvist.

I don't think ASP has more upside than Edvinsson, personally.

And I am not all that concerned about a 6'6" freak with + skating and + tools reaching their upside. Relative to most other prospects, at least.

 

[Sombastate]

So let's say that Edvinsson doesn't hit his offensive ceiling and is regulated to a more a 3/4 role. Can he PK? Is he physical? Does he block shots? I know a lot of people think his floor is pretty high, so just wondering if that's because he has those aspects of his game.

 

[JohanFranzenstein]

I don’t think the hype train is as big as it should be around here, to be honest

This x100

We are going to see Ed in a new gear this coming season. Think Mo's rookie season, except we'll ACTUALLY have Mo on the roster as well. This defense could be genuinely scary, especially if we're buying at the deadline (Ekblad, Martinez, Provorov, Lindgren, Chychrun) we're in amazing shape.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Yeah, I guess I am looking at Edvinsson like he is both a high floor and a high ceiling guy. And I don't really see a ton of things missing from his game that prohibits the ceiling.

I think he is a very good bet to be a 22+ minute guy in the NHL. The only sort of question for me is how much offense is he going to provide, and how much does he get featured on the power play. So I think that is fair to question, to a degree.

We are going to have to see how he looks with a bigger sample size. I never would have thought Seider would have hit 50 pts as early as he did. Again, I don't really see much missing from Edvinsson's game that makes me question him reaching a pretty high level as a player.


Yeah, as you point out Seider does this too. I am not too worried about it with either one.

They aren't going to have the IQ or decision making of someone like Lidstrom. But they don;t have to... they are both insane athletes with plus size. So they are going to be a pain in the ass to play against for other teams in big minute roles, even if they have their occasional gaffes.


I don't think ASP has more upside than Edvinsson, personally.

And I am not all that concerned about a 6'6" freak with + skating and + tools reaching their upside. Relative to most other prospects, at least.

Seider's IQ was pretty off the charts his first season. Just some of the puck plays he'd made and his body positioning were insane.

It's not as noticeable anymore and I dunno if it's coaching or just that he's playing against absurd competition now. He was then, but now his assignments are some of the toughest we've seen a defenseman face in 15 years.

Not to rabbit trail too far off Edvinsson, but I think one of the things that interests me most about Seider is how, pre-NHL, he'd just lay guys out left and right. He's still a physical defenseman, but he's not throwing nearly as many bone-crushing hits in the NHL. I dunno if it's because guys are bigger or if somebody got in his ear when he came over that he'll have a lot more career longevity if he tones down the physicality.

 

[Snuggs]

Seiders not laying guys out in the NHL? Must not be watching games and listening to them. These highlights aren't even of this year.



Team leader in hits with 200+ this season and last.

I don't ever remember him being a "Kronwall" type hitter but that's some physical stuff on real players. I'm sure there's even more we could look up if anyone wanted. I'm not sure we've seen a defender on our team this physical since Konstantinov.


Why we gotta trash our boys, lol? Both going to be good and physical.

 

[norrisnick]

The biggest thing holding back the opinion of Ed is that he isn't stepping into a complete void. Mo is already there. If Ed were unleashed as the guy like Mo was his rookie year, he'd look pretty f***ing impressive already, IMO.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Seiders not laying guys out in the NHL? Must not be watching games and listening to them. These highlights aren't even of this year.



Team leader in hits with 200+ this season and last.

I don't ever remember him being a "Kronwall" type hitter but that's some physical stuff on real players. I'm sure there's even more we could look up if anyone wanted. I'm not sure we've seen a defender on our team this physical since Konstantinov.


Why we gotta trash our boys, lol? Both going to be good and physical.

When you learn to read maybe try to skim over the part again where I clearly said he's still physical, but isn't killing guys left and right like he used to.

 

[jaster]

When you learn to read maybe try to skim over the part again where I clearly said he's still physical, but isn't killing guys left and right like he used to.

There's certainly been a change since his rookie year. To my eyes, it's pretty clear it's coaching. He had some spectacular hits his rookie year, but some of those were taking him out of position and wound up giving the opposition an advantage. He's been reigned in, no question. He's more selective now, and just not generally as wild as he used to be.

 

[Snuggs]

When you learn to read maybe try to skim over the part again where I clearly said he's still physical, but isn't killing guys left and right like he used to.

He's still killing guys.

He's also has significantly more open ice hits from the last two years vs his rookie.

We can try and drive this narrative that he's not crushing people but it's for sure no true.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

He's still killing guys.

He's also has significantly more open ice hits from the last two years vs his rookie.

When you learn to read maybe try to skim over the part again where I clearly said he's still physical, but isn't killing guys left and right like he used to.

Reading is very hard for you.

Couple more reads and you might figure out that this is talking about quantity. Nobody said he doesn't lay big hits. He just doesn't lay in the big hits nearly as frequently.

 

[Snuggs]

Reading is very hard for you.

Couple more reads and you might figure out that this is talking about quantity. Nobody said he doesn't lay big hits. He just doesn't lay in the big hits nearly as frequently.

I'm saying it's false. Totally.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

I'm saying it's false. Totally.

You can claim it's false all you want. You're wrong. But you can claim it.

 

[Snuggs]

You can claim it's false all you want. You're wrong. But you can claim it.

Ok... good one. I only showed video, told you stats, all showing him crashing into NHL players when... you questioned if he did it like he did prior to joining the NHL and I'm saying it's the same rate just as physical and hard then... you've got nothing to back your statement up... at all.

Good convo. Easy block.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Can someone tell me why they think Edvinsson has a lower chance of reaching his upside instead of 5 different people just repeating the same thing?

I, too, view him as a high floor and high ceiling type so I think we're ultimately on the same page but the "Edvinsson has higher upside than Seider, he's just not particularly likely to reach it" comment is explained below:

Honestly, I think that Edvinsson has a low chance of reaching his upside only because it's so ridiculously high. To me, someone's upside is largely centered around their tools. Edvinsson has every single tool that you could want, and thus his upside is essentially "the perfect hockey player." I think that's better than Seider whom, while doing well in the NHL already, doesn't have the same caliber of offensive tools as Edvinsson.

The problem is that no one is likely to develop every single tool to a high level. It happened for Hedman, so it can happen for Edvinsson, but it's most likely that his development ends up in the middle of his potential- some aspects of his toolbox staying at a second pair level while the rest develop to be 1st pair+ level.

Seider has already hit on most of his potential. At the NHL level, he's already proficiently using all of the tools that he showed at lower levels and then some. He still needs to "put it altogether" a bit in mind. Right now, he either chooses to dominate everybody and gives up too much chasing the play, or he plays it safe and doesn't enforce his will all over the ice. All that he really has to do is figure out how to do both at once and he's more or less complete as a player. From there, I expect him to improve a bit around the edges, but I don't think he has much room to grow beyond that. So he's much more likely to hit his peak upside having already climbed most of the way there. He's already capitalized on more of his potential than we could have reasonably expected him to. Thus I think it's unreasonable to expect the same of Edvinsson (while recognizing that if he does develop that well, he legitimately could be the best defenseman in the NHL IMO).