Speculation: Evan Bouchard's next contract?

[ChaoticOrange]

Unfortunately for us, we dealt Barrie without extending Bouchard and now his point totals are skyrocketing. He's been fantastic.

He'll get bridged. Ideally would be three years (so he could be extended longterm after the Ekholm deal is up) but I don't know if three years would take him to UFA or not.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I think most agents in the league would tell him to sign a bridge deal. Same is true for most RFAs right now as the league waits for the cap to start rising again, but Bouchard in particular who's looking at being the go-to PP quarterback in Edmonton the next year or two.

He'll make more money racking up points there for a couple of years as the cap goes back up than he would if he signed long term now.

This. When the cap starts going up again, its going to go up in a hurry. His best bet at future earnings is playing alongside the best in the world, so if he ties a bridge to the time when McDavid's contract expires, he will have the chance to stay with him until then, and then go wherever McDavid is going, whether that's re-signing in Edmonton or going elsewhere.

Foegele has had a good second half, but at the same time he doesn't contribute to either the PP or PK, and isn't really a go-to defensive forward. Of all the forwards, he's the easiest one for Holloway to replace at a 1/3 of the price. That's the main reason why he'll be on the chopping block this summer.


Good news is he's not a pure cap dump, and should return some (modest) value at the draft or during the summer.

I think Foegele is gone for exactly this reason. I think they move on from Yamamoto as well, but it might be harder with his inconsistency and concussion issues.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Whatever he gets, he needs to give half of it to Ekholm.

 

[super6646]

At least 6 bouchbombs.

I usually like Singh, but sorry I hate that line lol

 

[McFlyingV]

Holland has been hit or miss, but historically, he's done really well with RFAs. Assume both Yamo and Foegele are gone and replaced with Holloway and Bourgault, that's an additional $4 mill.

So that's $11.5 mill for Bouchard (RFA), McLeod (RFA), Kostin (RFA), Ryan, Janmark, Shore and Bjugstad.

Shore is probably back at $1M, Kostin $1.25M, McLeod probably at $2M for a couple years. Leaves $7.25M to bridge Bouchard and add a couple 4th line wingers. Another option is to trade Kulak and move Broberg to a permanent role, which frees up $2.75M.

My guess is Bouchard, 2x$5M.

Shore will be back at league minimum if he's back. You don't give 1mil to a guy who is in the press box 70% of the time.

Oilers also gain 2.5M cap space next season with Lucic retention and Sekera buyout off the books + whatever salary cap increase we see (it should start rising quicker than it has in recent years). They'll lose a bit of that from Bouchard's performance bonuses as cap overage next year.

Whatever he gets, he needs to give half of it to Ekholm.

I mean, I think Ekholm deserves a lot of credit, but its not like Bouchard is Marc Andre Bergeron circa 2006 being propped up by Pronger. He's finally been given a bigger more important role, looks more engaged, and has made a pretty big effort to improve his defensive game in the second half of the season to go along with his already great offensive game. Confidence of having a stable partner has brought that out, but Bouchard's always had the talent.

 

[McFlyingV]

Unfortunately for us, we dealt Barrie without extending Bouchard and now his point totals are skyrocketing. He's been fantastic.

He'll get bridged. Ideally would be three years (so he could be extended longterm after the Ekholm deal is up) but I don't know if three years would take him to UFA or not.

3 years would take him to 1 year before UFA.

 

[Machinehead]

Back when the Rangers were rebuilding, I really wanted him with the pick we ended up taking Kravtsov with. Arguments broke out in the draft thread and I died on that hill.

As it turns out, I don't know where he would fit in after the Trouba signing and Fox falling from the heavens, but I'm very happy to see him doing well.

 

[RickyLafleur]

Shore will be back at league minimum if he's back. You don't give 1mil to a guy who is in the press box 70% of the time.

Oilers also gain 2.5M cap space next season with Lucic retention and Sekera buyout off the books + whatever salary cap increase we see (it should start rising quicker than it has in recent years). They'll lose a bit of that from Bouchard's performance bonuses as cap overage next year.


I mean, I think Ekholm deserves a lot of credit, but its not like Bouchard is Marc Andre Bergeron circa 2006 being propped up by Pronger. He's finally been given a bigger more important role, looks more engaged, and has made a pretty big effort to improve his defensive game in the second half of the season to go along with his already great offensive game. Confidence of having a stable partner has brought that out, but Bouchard's always had the talent.

Bouchard started the year on the 1PP, sucked and the role was given to Barrie. Before the trade deadline, Bouchard was not even in the top 50 scorers among defensemen, he was 63rd and tied with Luke Schenn, Matthew Benning, and J.J Moser
Pre-trade deadline

61GP

3G

18A

21PTS

20PIM

-6

Post-trade deadline

21GP

5G

14A

19PTS

8PIM

12

It's not even really close now. The only issue is that if Bouchard gets bridged, and then gets his big deal after Ekholm ages out and doesn't live up to it since he won't have someone to cover for his mistakes.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

3 years would take him to 1 year before UFA.

Perfect.

 

[McFlyingV]

Bouchard started the year on the 1PP, sucked and the role was given to Barrie. Before the trade deadline, Bouchard was not even in the top 50 scorers among defensemen, he was 63rd and tied with Luke Schenn, Matthew Benning, and J.J Moser
Pre-trade deadline
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]61GP[/TD]
[TD]3G[/TD]
[TD]18A[/TD]
[TD]21PTS[/TD]
[TD]20PIM[/TD]
[TD]-6[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Post-trade deadline
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]21GP[/TD]
[TD]5G[/TD]
[TD]14A[/TD]
[TD]19PTS[/TD]
[TD]8PIM[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

It's not even really close now. The only issue is that if Bouchard gets bridged, and then gets his big deal after Ekholm ages out and doesn't live up to it since he won't have someone to cover for his mistakes.

No he did not. I'm not sure where you're getting this from.

 

[ManofSteel55]

At least 6 bouchbombs.

I usually like Singh, but sorry I hate that line lol

I hate it too. Bouchard has a good shot, but it isn't so hard compared to other shooting defenseman that I would refer to it as a "bomb" every single time.

Whatever he gets, he needs to give half of it to Ekholm.

That's an odd take. Bouchard not being saddled with a bottom pair defenseman certainly helps, but it's really the increase in powerplay time that has helped Bouchard's production the most.

 

[PullHard]

Detroit would take on Nurse, Campbell, and Ceci if they came with McDavid and Draisaitl

 

[McFlyingV]

I hate it too. Bouchard has a good shot, but it isn't so hard compared to other shooting defenseman that I would refer to it as a "bomb" every single time.


That's an odd take. Bouchard not being saddled with a bottom pair defenseman certainly helps, but it's really the increase in powerplay time that has helped Bouchard's production the most.

Of course its an odd take. This guy claims Bouchard started the year on PP1 and got demoted due to sucking. When in reality Barrie ate up almost all of the PP1 time from season opener, and Bouchard only got the odd look on PP1 if it hit a stagnant stretch.

I really don't understand why people make posts like that when its hilariously obvious they don't know what they're talking about and haven't followed or watched the team at all this year.

 

[LTIR]

Im an oilers fan I fully expect offer sheets his way this summer as an RFA. Whether he signs or not. If a team likes him and wouldn’t mind committing long term as a rebuilding team and could go 7-7.5 7 years. Oilers would have a hard time matching with the cap.

I do hope he wants to stay with the oilers and signs a bridge

Ha, easy pass on 7M per + for this guy.. he will be chased out of town the first time he struggles... Offense is fine but he isn't complete enough to command more than 6.

 

[Coffey]

At least 6 bouchbombs.

I usually like Singh, but sorry I hate that line lol

Shit is corny when announcers say it.
Very WWE sounding.

Ha, easy pass on 7M per + for this guy.. he will be chased out of town the first time he struggles... Offense is fine but he isn't complete enough to command more than 6.

Agreed.

 

[Pass the Saitl Sauce]

Ha, easy pass on 7M per + for this guy.. he will be chased out of town the first time he struggles... Offense is fine but he isn't complete enough to command more than 6.

That’s why I said offer sheet

 

[PuckG]

Ha, easy pass on 7M per + for this guy.. he will be chased out of town the first time he struggles... Offense is fine but he isn't complete enough to command more than 6.

Agreed, to warrant that, he can't have Ekholm sheltering him and he needs to be completely driving his own pairing successfully, both in the d-zone and o-zone.

 

[Waterbuf]

If Nurse is worth 9 Bouchard is probably 20 million per

 

[ManofSteel55]

If Nurse is worth 9 Bouchard is probably 20 million per

Why post such silliness?

 

[McSuper]

The better question that should be asked is what's his value if he priced himself out of Edmonton. You can go over the cap by 10% in the summer so Edmonton signs him for 8 years at 6 million. Whats you offers?

 

[Petes2424]

As well as he’s playing, we still haven’t seen Bouchard “lead a pair” successfully in the NHL. He hasn’t had a lot of opportunities in that regard, but the Oilers will want to see that before going all-in on a long-term deal.

We can’t discount what Ekhom provides.

So, giving him a bridge deal, not only helps the Oilers with the current cap situation, but it could be catastrophic if they hand him a 7-8 year deal and he ends up a John Klingberg. Who has needed a high-end role playing D partner his entire career… just to play his game.

Just look at Liljegren playing with Giordano and not playing with him. Last year at this time, we had all sorts of people saying he’d “turned the corner.” Well, he’s the same player he was before playing with Giordano. Can’t drive a pair, and has shown he’s still not a high-end role player.

Some players you see it with right away. Byrum and Seider in recent time. From their first shift. We seen it this year with Edvinsson in less than 10 games at the end of the season. That’s why people are so excited about him. He showed he will “Drive the Pair” in his career.

Won’t matter who those 3 have as partners as they mature. They won’t need much help. While we’re still waiting to see it from Dobson, Bouchard, Broberg and some other high draft picks in recent memory.

Like I said, he hasn’t had a lot of opportunity in that regard, but when he has, he’s struggled. More than Broberg btw.

It’s probably the hardest thing to do between the NHL and any other league. Whether Junior, SHL, AHL, etc. Being able to carry a Top 4 pairing in the NHL. It’s why you rarely see them traded. When you get one, you keep them. Unless you’re the Canadians and thought Drouin would somehow be a better player than Sergachev.

I absolutely think Bouchard can do it. I think he’s shown enough now, where that will come to him as he approaches his prime. Still need to see it though…..

 

[Bond]

9.25

 

[bucks_oil]

He’s been the best defenceman in this series so far and it features some pretty big names. All his agent needs to do is clip Nurse’s gaffes from this playoffs series and demand that Bouchard is paid more because he’s been miles better.

3x4.5 is a hard sell, you never know when a major injury may happen and completely tank your earning potential. Oilers cap crunch will be fascinating to watch unfold this summer, I don’t envy Holland.

Huge Bouchard fan by the way...

... but I was nearly chased off the board for being among the "rationality suggests the only thing that can be done is a bridge".

That was on the basis that
1) we can't afford anything else, and
2) development may not be linear

This year we've seen two versions of Bouchard.
1) Version 1 was trending toward 25-30 points (mostly EV mind you) and poorer defensively than Barrie... why pay a PP-specialist more than Barrie? Bridge until then.
2) Version 2 not surprisingly arrived when Ekholm did and is the guy we are all watching in the playoffs... easily worth 6-7 when playing with a steady hand like Ekholm.

My argument was somewhere slightly north of Dobson on a bridge. I think that's still the target, but the duration is going to be tough.

Ideally we sign him up for a bridge that expires the same year as McD. That allows us to make the call on Drai and Bouchard in the same summer (with Bouch still having a year under contract and if I'm not mistaken several years of RFA control)....

If Drai resigns, we know what cap we have to work with. If Drai's rights have been traded, we already know if McD is walking or not... and we still have Bouch (with ~another year) under contract and available to the highest bidder (and start yet another rebuild, this time time with McDrai-Bouch assets to start it off).

 

[bucks_oil]

As well as he’s playing, we still haven’t seen Bouchard “lead a pair” successfully in the NHL. He hasn’t had a lot of opportunities in that regard, but the Oilers will want to see that before going all-in on a long-term deal.

We can’t discount what Ekhom provides.

So, giving him a bridge deal, not only helps the Oilers with the current cap situation, but it could be catastrophic if they hand him a 7-8 year deal and he ends up a John Klingberg. Who has needed a high-end role playing D partner his entire career… just to play his game.

Just look at Liljegren playing with Giordano and not playing with him. Last year at this time, we had all sorts of people saying he’d “turned the corner.” Well, he’s the same player he was before playing with Giordano. Can’t drive a pair, and has shown he’s still not a high-end role player.

Some players you see it with right away. Byrum and Seider in recent time. From their first shift. We seen it this year with Edvinsson in less than 10 games at the end of the season. That’s why people are so excited about him. He showed he will “Drive the Pair” in his career.

Won’t matter who those 3 have as partners as they mature. They won’t need much help. While we’re still waiting to see it from Dobson, Bouchard, Broberg and some other high draft picks in recent memory.

Like I said, he hasn’t had a lot of opportunity in that regard, but when he has, he’s struggled. More than Broberg btw.

It’s probably the hardest thing to do between the NHL and any other league. Whether Junior, SHL, AHL, etc. Being able to carry a Top 4 pairing in the NHL. It’s why you rarely see them traded. When you get one, you keep them. Unless you’re the Canadians and thought Drouin would somehow be a better player than Sergachev.

I absolutely think Bouchard can do it. I think he’s shown enough now, where that will come to him as he approaches his prime. Still need to see it though…..

Great post as usual (though somehow I don't see your posts as often as I should).

Anyway, I'm with you. I'm yet to be convinced Bouchard is an all situations "pairing leader" on either of the top two pairs.

Don't get me wrong he has a SUBLIME offensive vision. HUGE brain.

He also lacks mobility, or at least it isn't a strength

And he doesn't understand the defensive game anywhere near the intuitive level of his offensive game (this I expect may come... like when he's 26++) he's just too smart for it not to mature, but how quickly will it happen? My offer would reflect this... even a Bryan Rafalski/Bouwmeester can be a defensive presence in their thirties... if it isn't an innate gift, it can be learned, but why pay for that too early???

Physically, so far he's ok at best... he's got the size, but... When he's not engaged he's prone to major lapses, when he is, he's prone to bone-head penalties. This needs to balance out to be an all-things guy.

 

[Petes2424]

Great post as usual (though somehow I don't see your posts as often as I should).

Anyway, I'm with you. I'm yet to be convinced Bouchard is an all situations "pairing leader" on either of the top two pairs.

Don't get me wrong he has a SUBLIME offensive vision. HUGE brain.

He also lacks mobility, or at least it isn't a strength

And he doesn't understand the defensive game anywhere near the intuitive level of his offensive game (this I expect may come... like when he's 26++) he's just too smart for it not to mature, but how quickly will it happen? My offer would reflect this... even a Bryan Rafalski/Bouwmeester can be a defensive presence in their thirties... if it isn't an innate gift, it can be learned, but why pay for that too early???

Physically, so far he's ok at best... he's got the size, but... When he's not engaged he's prone to major lapses, when he is, he's prone to bone-head penalties. This needs to balance out to be an all-things guy.

100%… It’s one of the 2 things people never like to take into account on these boards but it’s one of two major things coaches and managers use to judge dmen. Especially young players, to judge if they can play in the league.

The ability to “lead a pair”…. And we all should know exactly what that means. The second thing with dmen, nobody ever seems to talk about, and Bouchard is ok at this, but should be much better, is “puck retrieval.”

It’s where Ekholm is making a major difference. He gets to the puck and it’s out of the zone, or controlled immediately. Allowing his partner not to be chasing the puck around their own zone as much.

Nick Jensen has made an NHL career out of just this. Brian Rafalski, who you mentioned, was one of the best at it. It’s why Quinn Hughes hasn’t been decapitated yet.

Like I said, I think Bouchard can get to it. He has the skills to. We need to see it though, and I guarantee the Oilers will want to see it before they shell out a long term deal.