Speculation: Evan Bouchard asking $11M AAV on his next deal

[Soundwave]

We have to wait and see regarding those projections. Its kind of hard to predict how much the cap will go up and how much NHL gets from the new TV deal. Lots of variables at play here so am not going to speculate on what the numbers will look like.

4 million/year raise for the next 5 years (some years a bit higher, some years a bit lower) is normal anyway.

4 million is not what it used to be thanks to massive inflation.

As I've said the cap is still millions below where it should be. It should be around 94-95 million, last year was the first significant rise in the cap in 5 years. It's not just going to rise for 1 year and then go back to COVID levels, that's not happening.

Likely we are well overdue for 4-5 years of significant growth. This is exactly why Auston Matthews didn't sign for 8 years max, he and his agent both know the cap will be way higher when his current deal is up.

 

[Slapshot_11]

All these oiler fans talking about the cap going up as if players salary won't go up along with it

 

[Contenderorpretender]

4 mil predicted doesnt mean 9 mil in course of 2 years. I deal with facts not projections that might or might not happen. It is easier to predict the 4 mil rise to cap this year but still need to wait for official announcement.

Lol what?!?! You are clearly someone that just wants to argue semantics or have absolutely zero understanding of the importance in financial projections in sports and business alike. It is literally standard practice to Forcast revenue, earnings and expenses.

Here's another example

have you ever chocked the chicken before a hot date? Because you expect that maybe ...perhaps you get lucky. Never go out with a loaded gun. Might or might not happen but you still did it based on hopeful projection.

 

[Soundwave]

All these oiler fans talking about the cap going up as if players salary won't go up along with it

It's not a 1:1 relationship.

Salaries for star/superstar players in their prime earning years ends up claiming most of the increase. Then on the other end of the spectrum you may have younger players coming off their first ELC demand bigger money faster.

Then you have players in the middle that get squeezed and quite often don't see huge salaries.

This happens in other mature cap leagues too like the NBA, the top guys like a Steph Curry will get a shit ton of money, young players like Zion Williamson get a shit ton of money while still being somewhat unproven, but there's still lots of good role players available in the middle who take reasonable contracts.

We see this even last summer, the cap rose significantly, but it's not like the Oilers then signed Skinner and Arvidsson and Henrique to inflated value contracts, those tier of players end up not seeing as much benefit.

The cap rose significantly last summer but there were arguably more bargains available than many other years, that's because players in the middle quite often get squeezed out.

 

[McFlash97]

All these oiler fans talking about the cap going up as if players salary won't go up along with it

All these other fans claiming the Oilers would be in cap hell when the cap will easily be in the 97 to 100 million range and with salary coming off our books too. Dont worry about the Oilers. These same fans claimed Leon would bounce the first chance he got, same ones who live in some alternate reality thinking McDavid wants to play for the Leafs.

 

[I Hate Blake Coleman]

No way they can do it without getting rid of Nurse?

 

[Soundwave]

No way they can do it without getting rid of Nurse?

Can be done fairly straight forwardly

3.5 m raise for McDavid (16 mill)
6.5 m raise for Bouchard (10.5 mill)
Draisaitl is already priced in based on Brown's bonus + Neal buyout coming off the books.

Requires 10 mill incoming and/or outgoing off the cap.

Evander Kane is coming off the books, that's 5 mill off right there.

Cap rises 4 mill next summer and 5 mill+ (new Canadian TV deal) the following year, that's another 9 million.

Honestly they have Arvidsson (4 mill off), Skinner (3 mill off), and Henrique (3 mill off) that also are coming off the cap in the next 2 years but I just assume that will go back into paying for other depth players (maybe Arvidsson is retained).

They'll be able to pay it. If this was the middle of COVID, that would be dicey, but with the cap resuming its rise, it changes the equation significantly.

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

No way they can do it without getting rid of Nurse?

That'll cost the Oilers a lot...

 

[wetcoast]

Hell get 10. Cap will be 100 in 2 years. Doesnt matter. You can still fill out a great team with 60 mill

Pretty much this and seriously he is worth it going forward.

Some naysayers will go well anyone can look good with McDavid but watch him play and he can really pass and his all around offensive instincts are that good.

 

[centipede2233]

Some need to be reminded Bouchard is a RD, RD nhl defencemen in general are hard to find. Bouchard at 10 milish isn’t as crazy as you think

 

[Soundwave]

Makar is going to get probably 15 per on his next deal, the cap will be north of 100 million by then.

The downstream effect of inflation is going to drive revenue for several years, going to a game nowadays you can already see it.

Tickets are notably more expensive than pre-COVID. Concession prices are notably higher than pre-COVID. A ticket + beer + hot dog/slice of pizza can now cost a small fortune. Jerseys cost more than pre-COVID and Fanatics is piling on by offering "real" jerseys and "real eye opening" pricing tiers ($500+ USD, lol), but there will definitely be a market for these.

NHL is greedy in every negotiation, they want a ridiculous 2x+ more now for expansion fee than what even Vegas got it for. They are going to ask for the moon for the Canadian TV deal. They likely are asking for more from all their sponsorship partners too. Teams are making more money now selling advertisements on the helmets and jerseys directly.

Then there's also the effect of inflation on the dollar itself, what used to be maybe "only a 2.5 million rise in the cap" pre-COVID, now becomes well over 3 million because what used to be 2.5 million is now 3+ million.

That all contributes to rising cap.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Bouchard should ask for $13m.

I mean he’s a unique player. Only guy in the league where every pass, is a no look pass.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Spending will set you free!
It can only go up forever!!
UNLIMITED and EXPONENTIAL growth!!!
You would be crazy stupid not to buy buy buy!!!!!



Hope really does spring eternal doesn't it. Pro sports aren't recession proof. This league has had two lockouts just in the last 20 years. In that time there's also been two and maybe even technically three "once in a lifetime" economic crises.

Put your faith in Gary and the BoG I guess.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Draisaitl could have taken and got more from both the Oilers and the open market.

McDavid could get a max contract and anything less is a discount.

Bouchard has a fraction of the career earnings as both of the above. There is little expectation that he takes a discount - especially relative to the other two.

on his new deal Im assuming? cause back when he signed his 8.5m I recall most thinking he got overpaid
Brouchard asking 11, likely landing 9.5-10.5 area.

 

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Bouchard asking 11, likely landing 9.5-10.5 area.

10 is my prediction.

 

[joestevens29]

I mean why wouldn't he be asking that after the season he just had.

 

[iago]

View attachment 909130

He's not even close to being worth it.

He won't be getting less than Dahlin

But he is not nearly as good as Dahlin.

 

[Habs Halifax]

All these oiler fans talking about the cap going up as if players salary won't go up along with it

This is true. Salaries will rise. The problem I see here is how much does he deserve from that rising cap?

He's one of the better young guys on D but man, $11M AAV? When I see these situations, I look at how the player is surrounded with talent. He's got two of the best players in the world playing on his PP and I see bloated stats because of it. Bouchard deserves credit for working hard and earning that spot but I think $11M is too high (even with a rising cap).

I don't think he is as good as Dahlin. Without a rising cap, I'd say Bouchard is a $8M guy. With a rising cap, I'd say $9M-$10M range. $11M is too much IMO

 

[KCC]

the media had been estimating he would be at around 10 million. I’m thinking 10.5 mill when it’s all said and done.

 

[spaghtti]

on his new deal Im assuming? cause back when he signed his 8.5m I recall most thinking he got overpaid
Brouchard asking 11, likely landing 9.5-10.5 area.

This just proves what most really don't know. Draisaitl deal took 2 years to become a steal and was highway robbery by the Oilers the rest of the deal

 

[Cup or Bust]

I think people are stuck on the cap being stagnant as it has been for a number of years. Salaries in the NHL are going to start to escalate again and the cap is going to increase. That doesn't mean you can just throw money around but players are going to be paid based on what they are worth now and in the future based on a rising cap. that is to be expected. The Oilers are also in a position where they have to sign a string of players putting up very elite numbers. It just takes good offseason management by the GM to put together a good roster.

 

[ManofSteel55]

All these oiler fans talking about the cap going up as if players salary won't go up along with it

Most Oiler fans are talking about the cap going up as a defense to people suggesting we won't be able to keep Bouchard with McDavid and Draisaitl's raises coming up. We know player salaries are going up. We also know that we have some key guys locked in at bargain contracts (Nuge, Hyman) to help offset some of our large salaries (Nurse, ugh). McDavid, Ekholm and Skinner come up for raises in 2 years, Bouchard next summer, and after that, its about replacing the role players that we have now, and those types of players likely won't see a huge raise overall. Aside from Jeff Skinner perhaps, if he produces a ton with Draisaitl, we will have to replace him next year as we won't be able to compete with more than he makes now.

 

[notbias]

McDavid is likely coming in at $15 million plus...

$40 million on 3 forwards is a lot.

 

[notbias]

Most Oiler fans are talking about the cap going up as a defense to people suggesting we won't be able to keep Bouchard with McDavid and Draisaitl's raises coming up. We know player salaries are going up. We also know that we have some key guys locked in at bargain contracts (Nuge, Hyman) to help offset some of our large salaries (Nurse, ugh). McDavid, Ekholm and Skinner come up for raises in 2 years, Bouchard next summer, and after that, its about replacing the role players that we have now, and those types of players likely won't see a huge raise overall. Aside from Jeff Skinner perhaps, if he produces a ton with Draisaitl, we will have to replace him next year as we won't be able to compete with more than he makes now.

Nuge and Hyman help offset Nurse, and then you still need to offset Campbell's dead cap.

Are Nuge and Hyman going to continue their play into their mid 30s?

Is Evan Bouchard still good after Ekholm?

You'd hope they try to upgrade on the other D over this time too.

I agree with pretty much everything you said though... it looks tight at best.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

This just proves what most really don't know. Draisaitl deal took 2 years to become a steal and was highway robbery by the Oilers the rest of the deal

what exactly is there that I dont know? so if it took 2 years to become a steal then I was right saying most thought he got overpaid at 8.5m when he first signed it.