Value of: Erik Karlsson @6M

[benfranklin]

Would have to be a team that doesnt have a good PP guy. Id love him on the Avs but then I think what the hell would he do behind Makar?

 

[3074326]

Please explain why EK would have positive trade value? Use draft pick value. With his contract what draft pick would EK return? No retention and no cap coming back. Just straight EK for picks.

If you need it explained, you aren’t going to change your mind. The answer is “common sense”

 

[Barsky]

I don't think he is easy to trade or get value for at 6.5M. The problem is that any team who can fit that in probably is not a team he would waive for. My assumption is that he would only waive for the typical meme low-tax contender teams like Florida, Tampa, Vegas, and Dallas - as well as possibly Ottawa or Montreal due to Ottawa still being the adopted hometown of his family.

He will be 35 years old next season and has an extensive injury history. I think that teams are going to be reticent about the remaining term.

Using Vegas, I could see something like Karlsson with steep retention for Whitecloud, a 2nd, and the 3rd or 4th best prospect in the system of Vegas. I don't think they are going to get the return people expect, and I think they will have to both retain and take back questionable contracts with term.

If a contract termination like Saad, with assets going to Pittsburgh baked in could be worked out and legal in the CBA - I think that's how all sides get what they want. Karlsson is still only 34 years old, so that would allow him to sign a lower AAV but longer term contract with the idea that he will inevitable LTIRetire because it's fairly unrealistic to expect Karlsson to still be playing at 38 or 39 years old. Call it a terminate-and-trade.

Because he isn't 35, if his contract was terminated now, they would have more creativity with the kind of cap (won't use the C word here) gymnastics they could do.

Pretty sure no one who doesn't have Lewis Gross as an agent is dumb enough to walk away from millions of dollars, especially 16.5 mil. Still can't believe Zadina was that dumb

 

[Fatass]

If you need it explained, you aren’t going to change your mind. The answer is “common sense”

Imo common sense dictates that EK, with his current contract (which was what a poster was commenting on) has negative trade value. Even with 50% retention EK, because he is not a coming UFA, he has negative value.

 

[Toby Flenderson]

Why would the Penguins retain on a $5MM AAV? That is the definition of bad cap management.

Because a contending team might not have 5M of space but could have 2.5M of space lol pretty obvious.

If retaining gets a better return then it’s bad management not to do it especially given we won’t be competitive until after said retention spot expires.

 

[Barsky]

Imo common sense dictates that EK, with his current contract (which was what a poster was commenting on) has negative trade value. Even with 50% retention EK, because he is not a coming UFA, he has negative value.

Have to disagree, at 5 mil, a healthy guy 2 years removed from a Norris def does not have negative value

 

[SEALBound]

It depends on how much better the prospect is. The retention slot for the next three years has an opportunity cost that needs to be taken into account.

Teams that want Rakell will likely already be able to take on the $5mil hit anyway. With the cap going up, a team may not see the need to have to add extra assets to get the Penguins to retain. Even then, what do they add? A 3rd? I'd rather have the cap space and retention slot.

I'd take EK65 back on the Sharks at 6.5 mil (the lowest the Sharks can get his cap down to through Pittsburgh) but I have no idea what the asking price would be.

Grundstrom + Dallas 1st + a prospect like Chernyshov or Cardwell? Something like that?

 

[Barsky]

Because a contending team might not have 5M of space but could have 2.5M of space lol pretty obvious.

If retaining gets a better return then it’s bad management not to do it especially given we won’t be competitive until after said retention spot expires.

Fair & I'm with ya, but owners and GM's(not named Grier) seem to really hate retaining on deals with that much term left

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Pretty sure no one who doesn't have Lewis Gross as an agent is dumb enough to walk away from millions of dollars, especially 16.5 mil. Still can't believe Zadina was that dumb

I don't disagree with you, but the suggestion is that the Penguins, Karlsson, and a second team would all be on the same page. So Karlsson would have a contract lined up that recoups some of the money.

Let's just use an even number and say with the remainder of this season he would walk away from 20M. Given he is under 34, he would be in a perfect position to sign a Tanev type contract where it's long enough that everybody with a brain knows the player will end up LTIRetired, but short enough that they have some plausible deniability. 5 years at 3.5M in a no tax state is likely breaking even for Karlsson.

Obviously, we don't know if the league would allow a termination and trade. It's a pretty absurd idea.

 

[Barsky]

I don't disagree with you, but the suggestion is that the Penguins, Karlsson, and a second team would all be on the same page. So Karlsson would have a contract lined up that recoups some of the money.

Let's just use an even number and say with the remainder of this season he would walk away from 20M. Given he is under 34, he would be in a perfect position to sign a Tanev type contract where it's long enough that everybody with a brain knows the player will end up LTIRetired, but short enough that they have some plausible deniability. 5 years at 3.5M in a no tax state is likely breaking even for Karlsson.

Obviously, we don't know if the league would allow a termination and trade. It's a pretty absurd idea.

Ok, but he's still not coming anywhere near recouping the 16.5 mil lost in the next 2 years, he'd still be short 9.5 mil. So if he doesn't walk away, given your 5x3.5 scenario, he only needs to make a mil as a UFA in 2 years, which he will still very likely easily clear, especially in a summer where the cap could potentially go to an eye watering 113.5 mil. Plus lets be honest, Tanev getting a 6 year deal at 34, for the same hit he had through his prime, was absolutely ridiculous and is not the norm

 

[JKG33]

HFBoards is under the (bizzarely incorrect) impression that Karlsson has negative value right now. I wouldn't expect much actual discussion from this.

Let me get this straight, the guy your team was dumb enough to trade a 1st for with a collection of cap dumps, has positive value? The guy SJ had to completely run their offence through, to the detriment of the team, for him to even be tradable at all, to the dumbest GM in the league? The guy who's now twice been traded where his new team immediately got worse? Who's only gotten worse himself since then? LOL. LMAO even.

The only positive value is in Pittsburgh taking on dead cap. No contender is bringing in Karlsson to fix their defence.

 

[McSuper]

Edmonton 2026 1st and 2nd + Skinner + 2027 late round pick .

 

[Barsky]

Let me get this straight, the guy your team was dumb enough to trade a 1st for with a collection of cap dumps, has positive value? The guy SJ had to completely run their offence through, to the detriment of the team, for him to even be tradable at all, to the dumbest GM in the league? The guy who's now twice been traded where his new team immediately got worse? Who's only gotten worse himself since then? LOL. LMAO even.

The only positive value is in Pittsburgh taking on dead cap. No contender is bringing in Karlsson to fix their defence.

I mean he did win a Norris with the highest output seen from a D-man in decades just b4 getting traded, it wasn't a bad deal value wise at the time. In any case Ottawa would likely make a pitch for him, while not being a cup contender, they are a playoff contender and safe to say he'd waive to go there

 

[WSS11]

Teams that want Rakell will likely already be able to take on the $5mil hit anyway. With the cap going up, a team may not see the need to have to add extra assets to get the Penguins to retain. Even then, what do they add? A 3rd? I'd rather have the cap space and retention slot.

Grundstrom + Dallas 1st + a prospect like Chernyshov or Cardwell? Something like that?

Chernyshov isn’t getting traded and I personally wouldn’t give up a 1st for EK. If SJ is trading futures it’s going to be for a younger player.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Please explain why EK would have positive trade value? Use draft pick value. With his contract what draft pick would EK return? No retention and no cap coming back. Just straight EK for picks.

Kinda doesn’t matter. There wouldn’t be any suitors in this scenario. No contender can add $10M without dumping cap and EK chooses his destination.

@ 50% retained… and he agrees to go to 2-4 teams… I think he can drum up enough competing offers to net the Pens a decent asset - especially if they take cap back.

Any EK return comes down to how many teams he’ll waive for.

 

[JKG33]

I mean he did win a Norris with the highest output seen from a D-man in decades just b4 getting traded, it wasn't a bad deal value wise at the time. In any case Ottawa would likely make a pitch for him, while not being a cup contender, they are a playoff contender and safe to say he'd waive to go there

Wowee he won the "defence"man points award being force fed the puck and allowed to play with reckless abandon. His lack of defence was belligerent. What a valuable player.

There's a reason it was a late summer trade immediately after president Kyle Dubas' exhaustive GM search lead him to the best candidate for the job.. that newly hired GM was the only one dumb enough to give up anything for Karlsson.

 

[Barsky]

Wowee he won the "defence"man points award being force fed the puck and allowed to play with reckless abandon. His lack of defence was belligerent. What a valuable player.

There's a reason it was a late summer trade immediately after president Kyle Dubas' exhaustive GM search lead him to the best candidate for the job.. that newly hired GM was the only one dumb enough to give up anything for Karlsson.

Ok, sure, the reigning Norris trophy winner was a garbage player, not worth a bag of pucks and you know better than all the pro hockey writers in North America

 

[JKG33]

Ok, sure, the reigning Norris trophy winner was a garbage player, not worth a bag of pucks and you know better than all the pro hockey writers in North America

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

Ok, but he's still not coming anywhere near recouping the 16.5 mil lost in the next 2 years, he'd still be short 9.5 mil. So if he doesn't walk away, given your 5x3.5 scenario, he only needs to make a mil as a UFA in 2 years, which he will still very likely easily clear, especially in a summer where the cap could potentially go to an eye watering 113.5 mil. Plus lets be honest, Tanev getting a 6 year deal at 34, for the same hit he had through his prime, was absolutely ridiculous and is not the norm

He is very unlikely to get another contract at 37 years old with his injury history. Terminating with Pittsburgh and signing a Tanev style contract would be in theory similar to deferring money. He will make the same amount over the lifetime of his career, except instead of getting 20M over the next 2.5 seasons, he would get it over the next 4.5 or 5.5 seasons, where he'd project to end up LTIRetired at some point.

 

[Barsky]

He is very unlikely to get another contract at 37 years old with his injury history. Terminating with Pittsburgh and signing a Tanev style contract would be in theory similar to deferring money. He will make the same amount over the lifetime of his career, except instead of getting 20M over the next 2.5 seasons, he would get it over the next 4.5 or 5.5 seasons, where he'd project to end up LTIRetired at some point.

Sorry, but that's a pretty bold & baseless assumption for a future first ballot HOF'er who is completely healthy and hasn't missed a single game in 3 seasons now.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Grundstrom + Dallas 1st + a prospect like Chernyshov or Cardwell? Something like that?

I think something like that could be what it would look like to get something done. I think from the Sharks' side of it, they'd keep Chernyshov off the table but would probably be okay to include Cardwell. I think they'd want to get a 3rd round pick back as well.

 

[SEALBound]

I think something like that could be what it would look like to get something done. I think from the Sharks' side of it, they'd keep Chernyshov off the table but would probably be okay to include Cardwell. I think they'd want to get a 3rd round pick back as well.

Yeah, I don't know the Shark's prospect system well enough to make an accurate value assessment there. Basically looking for someone in that Ponomarov, Fernstrom, or Grundstrom range (good shot at making the NHL eventually but not a world beater).

Might make more sense to ask for a defensive prospect though. Given that we have 3 3rds this year and 2 in each of the next two, I could be on board with adding a third back. Could even be the one you guys sent to us initially.