Erie Otters 2023-24 Off-Season Thread (Part One)
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Since nelli closed the off-season thread right after my post…
My last thoughts before the season starts, which is what I said a few months back: Spence, Sova, Lalonde imo are 3 most important players for this team in terms of floor vs ceiling. If at the end of the year, Spence established himself as a PPG player, Sova is a legit 1/2, and Lalonde is at least middle of the pack among starters - then Erie probably had a successful season. Conversely, if those 3 don’t perform, particularly with Sova and Lalonde, I don’t see how they can be anything more than a team fighting around a 7-9 seed yet again.
If you look back on the best team since the rebuild, 2019-20, that team went 26-26-4-7 in a COVID shortened year and in a tough division with what we now know is a bad head coach and probably a bad coaching staff overall. They also lost what seemed like a record amount of extra time, close games. This Erie roster has a chance to be at least as talented collectively as that team but imo has far more depth. Not to mention their coaching, even if average, is better than what they had in 2019-20 since that’s a low bar to cross. Imo having a full season of games, more depth, and a better coaching staff could equate to 10-15 more wins compared to that 2019-20 team.
I also want to put on the record that there are no longer size issues with this team. In 2019-20, Erie had 5 players (4 forwards) that were 5’9 or below and a total of 12 players that were 5’11 or below. Around that time, I said they needed to address this and flip the roster but that it would take time - you can’t just completely flip the roster overnight. They started making some progress in 2021-2022, having 6 players (all forwards) at 5’9 or below and a total of 8 players that were 5’11 or below. But I said from the beginning it would probably be an issue until 2022 or 2023 because it takes time to correct those numbers. Now, here we are. Yes, the SB hiring helped but it was already trending this way for a while and DB has been on record with it. Regardless of SB, they would be in this spot. The start of this year, there will be a maximum of 2 players (Bressette, Edwards) at 5’9 or below and only 5 players (all forwards) at 5’11 or below. This is very much normal when compared to much of the league and they no longer have size issues.
I think the combination of more size, potential for more high end talent, better depth overall, and a steady, veteran coach could see the team surprise everyone. The hard part is they play in the toughest division vs for example, like playing in the East division, which probably gives them at least 4-5 more wins. Combine a tough division with the last 5 years, basically resulting in a losing culture and PTSD, and it gives me some pause. It wouldn’t shock me if this team competes for a 4-5 seed, assuming a lot of things go right. I am predicting them to be closer to a 7th seed because of the last 5 years. But I’ll admit, the vibe with this team overall feels promising
My last thoughts before the season starts, which is what I said a few months back: Spence, Sova, Lalonde imo are 3 most important players for this team in terms of floor vs ceiling. If at the end of the year, Spence established himself as a PPG player, Sova is a legit 1/2, and Lalonde is at least middle of the pack among starters - then Erie probably had a successful season. Conversely, if those 3 don’t perform, particularly with Sova and Lalonde, I don’t see how they can be anything more than a team fighting around a 7-9 seed yet again.
If you look back on the best team since the rebuild, 2019-20, that team went 26-26-4-7 in a COVID shortened year and in a tough division with what we now know is a bad head coach and probably a bad coaching staff overall. They also lost what seemed like a record amount of extra time, close games. This Erie roster has a chance to be at least as talented collectively as that team but imo has far more depth. Not to mention their coaching, even if average, is better than what they had in 2019-20 since that’s a low bar to cross. Imo having a full season of games, more depth, and a better coaching staff could equate to 10-15 more wins compared to that 2019-20 team.
I also want to put on the record that there are no longer size issues with this team. In 2019-20, Erie had 5 players (4 forwards) that were 5’9 or below and a total of 12 players that were 5’11 or below. Around that time, I said they needed to address this and flip the roster but that it would take time - you can’t just completely flip the roster overnight. They started making some progress in 2021-2022, having 6 players (all forwards) at 5’9 or below and a total of 8 players that were 5’11 or below. But I said from the beginning it would probably be an issue until 2022 or 2023 because it takes time to correct those numbers. Now, here we are. Yes, the SB hiring helped but it was already trending this way for a while and DB has been on record with it. Regardless of SB, they would be in this spot. The start of this year, there will be a maximum of 2 players (Bressette, Edwards) at 5’9 or below and only 5 players (all forwards) at 5’11 or below. This is very much normal when compared to much of the league and they no longer have size issues.
I think the combination of more size, potential for more high end talent, better depth overall, and a steady, veteran coach could see the team surprise everyone. The hard part is they play in the toughest division vs for example, like playing in the East division, which probably gives them at least 4-5 more wins. Combine a tough division with the last 5 years, basically resulting in a losing culture and PTSD, and it gives me some pause. It wouldn’t shock me if this team competes for a 4-5 seed, assuming a lot of things go right. I am predicting them to be closer to a 7th seed because of the last 5 years. But I’ll admit, the vibe with this team overall feels promising
nelli27
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Apologies NOA! I'm sure you weren't the only one. Finally had some free time to go through and change the threads for all 20 teams. Go Otters!
Haha, all good. Didn’t mean it as a slight, more just about what perfect timing I had
Nolan Lalonde is back from Columbus. Source: eliteprospects.
FYI Otters fans. Channel 12 is having an Otters season preview show at 7 tonight.
Sova named C.
Both OAs, Terrance, Spence, Fimis named A
5 As seem a bit overboard.. but none of these names are surprising
Otters name Sova captain. Fimis, Johnston, Terrance and Spence are alternates.
I forgot Bressette, he is also an alternate.
I figured it was probably Sova/Terrance main captains with Fimis/Bressette Navy jersey Captain, and Johnson/Spence White jersey Captain or some sort of combination which I could see happening.
Yup, I predicted such. One of him, Artichuk, Messier seemed like a for sure thing, even with the Saganiuk, Gilmartin releases
Now gives Erie just 1 player (Bressette) who is 5’9 or under and 4 players who are 5’11 or under. Cant ever use the size excuse this year
Misiak was looking impressive in his preseason debut until he took this high hit and left the game
It would be right on par for Erie to have injury issues before the season even starts
It would be right on par for Erie to have injury issues before the season even starts
I have a feeling Messier is next once Misiak and Sova return. Messier is larger, but had limited play time last year. Artichuk was paired with Toroposov, McDonald, and Royston all of which seem to meshed together.
It’s hard to say for sure. I see Artichuk as a solid 3rd/4th line who had improvement from last year. Messier wasn’t overly flashy but what do I know. It could be pulled out of a hat.
According to the game write up, he only missed a few shifts and returned late in the 2nd. After the game the Hawks sent 3 players back to their junior clubs including Misiak.Misiak was looking impressive in his preseason debut until he took this high hit and left the game
It would be right on par for Erie to have injury issues before the season even starts
Thankfully. When I posted, he was out which would presumably be for concussion protocol but maybe not. Either way, seemed like a dangerous hit. Glad to have him back
Opening day roster final thoughts:
14 forwards total...8 of those are a lock to me (Terrance, Spence, Smith, Alfano, Bressette, Misiak, Molnar, Fimis) so I think the next move regarding Royston/Toroptsev/Hammond will largely be played out with just how close they are to our 9-12 forwards. They will need to either healthy scratch 2 of them every game or send 2 down and call up when needed. Our bottom 6 (Royston, Toroptsev, Hammond, Artichuk, McDonald, and Messier) will be intersting as to who earns their time. I personally feel Royston and Toroptsev get sent down to start and called up for injury. They will also play the max games allowed whether that's 8 or 10 before the deadline to see if they are ready.
8 defenders total...Defensively will be kind of the same boat with Henry/Holomego. We know Schaefer is playing every night when healthy. So where do Henry/Holomego fit in with regards to Sauder/Albloim returning? I can't imagine another year of being sent down at this point helps Holomego/Henry. Sova, Johnston, Daviault, and Schaefer are my 4 locks with Sauder, Albloim, Henry, and Holomego competing for 3rd pairing. I think defensively if Henry/Holomego look solid the team will look to move Daviault and/or Johnston at or before the deadline and maybe try to pick up draft picks or a project defender for next season.
Goalie...unless Downey really outshines Lalonde, I have to believe he will be the healthy scratch/odd man out leaving us with Lalonde/Gibbons.
Spirit Earned Memorial Cup Season with Hard Work & Excellence - The Hockey Writers OHL Latest News, Analysis & More
The Saginaw Spirit open their Memorial Cup season Friday night. See how hard work and excellence helped them earn this opportunity.
thehockeywriters.com
Does anyone think Erie ever has a shot to host the memorial cup? I’m happy Saginaw got it, great for them, but also hurt a bit that Erie, with a longer history and more success has really never been given a shot despite having a newer, bigger arena and a good area to host such an event
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember rumors that ahead of the 2014 Memorial Cup, Erie put out interest or at least started the initial process to see if they had a shot. This coming off a new arena, McDavid in year 2, and a pretty good team being built. Yet from what I recall, Erie backed off or never formally bid because they knew they wouldn’t be given a real chance to host and didn’t want to waste the time or resources. Could be wrong since it’s been 10 years since, but anyone have thoughts here?
They've never bid on it. I've never heard any of the other stuff you mentioned.Spirit Earned Memorial Cup Season with Hard Work & Excellence - The Hockey Writers OHL Latest News, Analysis & More
The Saginaw Spirit open their Memorial Cup season Friday night. See how hard work and excellence helped them earn this opportunity.
Does anyone think Erie ever has a shot to host the memorial cup? I’m happy Saginaw got it, great for them, but also hurt a bit that Erie, with a longer history and more success has really never been given a shot despite having a newer, bigger arena and a good area to host such an event
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember rumors that ahead of the 2014 Memorial Cup, Erie put out interest or at least started the initial process to see if they had a shot. This coming off a new arena, McDavid in year 2, and a pretty good team being built. Yet from what I recall, Erie backed off or never formally bid because they knew they wouldn’t be given a real chance to host and didn’t want to waste the time or resources. Could be wrong since it’s been 10 years since, but anyone have thoughts here?
HockeyPops
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- Aug 20, 2018
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+1
If you want to host, you need to be prepared to lose your first bid. Bidding is a learning experience, and you get lots of feedback on your bid attempt. On a subsequent bid, you can show how you addressed the shortfalls of your previous bid, and have a much better shot at winning the bid.
Wayne Gretzky, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
If you want to host, you need to be prepared to lose your first bid. Bidding is a learning experience, and you get lots of feedback on your bid attempt. On a subsequent bid, you can show how you addressed the shortfalls of your previous bid, and have a much better shot at winning the bid.
Wayne Gretzky, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."
The league would have loved to jump all over the McDavid train I am sure at the time but obviously there are other factors that play into a bid other than a star player.Spirit Earned Memorial Cup Season with Hard Work & Excellence - The Hockey Writers OHL Latest News, Analysis & More
The Saginaw Spirit open their Memorial Cup season Friday night. See how hard work and excellence helped them earn this opportunity.
Does anyone think Erie ever has a shot to host the memorial cup? I’m happy Saginaw got it, great for them, but also hurt a bit that Erie, with a longer history and more success has really never been given a shot despite having a newer, bigger arena and a good area to host such an event
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I seem to remember rumors that ahead of the 2014 Memorial Cup, Erie put out interest or at least started the initial process to see if they had a shot. This coming off a new arena, McDavid in year 2, and a pretty good team being built. Yet from what I recall, Erie backed off or never formally bid because they knew they wouldn’t be given a real chance to host and didn’t want to waste the time or resources. Could be wrong since it’s been 10 years since, but anyone have thoughts here?
With Saginaw hosting this year, I don't anticipate another Memorial Cup coming to the US for quite some time though, at least when it comes time for the OHL to host. Not a knock against Erie, but there are a slew of Canadian teams that will likely come first before Flint and Erie host
Thanks. I know they never formally bid, I’m just speaking on rumors I heard at the time. I’m also NOT trying to make this a big thing, just a talking point since the recent article I attached came up and made me think I don’t personally feel Erie ever had a chance and likely won’t anytime soon.
Personally, I have my doubts Erie would ever have gotten a real look in 2014 with or without McDavid, especially with London bidding and winning that year. I just think it’s interesting that now with Saginaw getting to host, some of the narrative (not all and not everyone feels the same way) is that the OHL is open to it or has always been open to it. Maybe their stance changed or maybe they didn’t have better options outside of SAG but imo, I don’t think the US teams get the same opportunities to host (again, my opinion from what I’ve heard/seen). I partially understand the reasons for that though
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