So CL places for Sunday. As before I'll assume a GD of 5+ won't be overturned but will note with a * where one happens in case you're curious.
Liverpool - Locked in as champions
Arsenal - Locked in 2nd place
Here's how each other team can make it:
Manchester City
- Win
- Draw*
- Newcastle doesn't win
- Chelsea doesn't win
- Aston Villa doesn't win
Newcastle
- Win*
- Draw and one of:
- Chelsea/Forest draw
- Aston Villa draw*/loss
- Loss and one of :
- Villa loss
- Chelsea loss and Newcastle loses by no more than 2 goals more than Chelsea loses by (e.g. if Chelsea lose 1-0 Newcastle can lose by at most 3 goals)
Chelsea
- Win*
- Draw and one of:
- Newcastle loss
- Villa draw/loss
- Loss and Villa loss* and Newcastle loses by 3 more goals than Chelsea lose by (e.g. if Chelsea lose 1-0, Newcastle would have to lose by 4 goals)
Aston Villa
- Win and one of:
- Chelsea loss/draw
- Newcastle loss/draw
- Manchester City loss
- Draw and Newcastle loss
Forest
- Win, Newcastle loss/draw, and Villa Loss/draw