GWT: EPL - Matchweek 28

[Jussi]

65 million years ago the dinosaurs were the mightiest and look what happened to them.

Surely you're not implying Arsenal are as weak as dinosaurs?

 

[Savant]

65 million years ago the dinosaurs were the mightiest and look what happened to them.

Surely you're not implying Arsenal are as weak as dinosaurs?

 

[Savant]

It wouldn't remotely surprise me for them to take a step back next year, but a simplistic "teams adjusted to Slot's tactics” won't really be the reason.

I'd more lean towards "Manchester City spent $349583495872394872 over the summer and Pep got things back on track and they just needed to hang onto top 4" as a reason why they don't win next year.

For sure. But also, weirdly, Arsenal are the team that probably have the least amount of question marks going into next season of the three. That may effect the perception a bit too

 

[S E P H]

Teams will figure out how to play against Slot in his 2nd year because that always happens.

Arsenal did so well in 2022-2023 because Arteta had only been managing Arsenal for 1.5 years before then and then teams adjusted which led to Arsenal scoring more goals, conceding fewer goals, getting more points, being closer to the top of the table, and advancing further in the CL in the next year.

Sure, that makes sense.

Most of that team during Arteta's first 1.5 years was Emery's club and some remnants of Wenger's. He was thrown into a situation similar to Amorim where he had players who never fitted Mikel's system. Arteta's first true year with players who matched his system and how he wanted to play was two years ago.

 

[Savant]

The main difference (not the only one) is Liverpool's best player is having a career year and dragging them to a title with 45 G/A, while our best player has been injured for ~3 months and counting. And now we have even more injuries on top of it.

They deserve the title, but if they don't extend Salah then they are in for a world of hurt next year.

Salah is having a career year, and they almost certainly will be worse off without him if he goes. But Salah is absolutely not dragging them either. They finally figured out the midfield. Virgil and Konate have easily been no worse than in the best half dozen CBs in the league. Etc. This is not a one man show. LFC have had the best forward, midfielder and defender of the league campaign. That helps.

 

[luiginb]

Gravenberg has been for Liverpool everything I had expected him to be for Bayern.

Salah is having a career year, and they almost certainly will be worse off without him if he goes. But Salah is absolutely not dragging them either. They finally figured out the midfield. Virgil and Konate have easily been no worse than in the best half dozen CBs in the league. Etc. This is not a one man show. LFC have had the best forward, midfielder and defender of the league campaign. That helps.

 

[Savant]

Gravenberg has been for Liverpool everything I had expected him to be for Bayern.

Gravenberch has been the best midfielder in the league this season, and there is obviously still some untapped upside there. LFC midfield has arguably become the strongest part of the team. Salah has been crucial, but this is far from a one man team

 

[Jack Straw]

Surely you're not implying Arsenal are as weak as dinosaurs?

All it takes is one well-aimed meteor.

 

[Savant]

So much for “over my dead body”



1 of 9 points since then

 

[KJS14]

Salah is having a career year, and they almost certainly will be worse off without him if he goes. But Salah is absolutely not dragging them either. They finally figured out the midfield. Virgil and Konate have easily been no worse than in the best half dozen CBs in the league. Etc. This is not a one man show. LFC have had the best forward, midfielder and defender of the league campaign. That helps.

Salah has contributed to ~65% of Liverpool's goals. He has 27 goals in the league, which is the same as your other 4 forwards combined and none of them have broken 10 goals.

I'm not trying to say you don't have a great team around him or that it's Southampton + Salah, but he's definitely dragging them to the title. Arsenal have a better defense and comparable midfield, but your best player has 45 G/A and ours has been injured. And kudos to him for it - he should be the front runner for the ballon d'or.

 

[Savant]

Salah has contributed to ~65% of Liverpool's goals. He has 27 goals in the league, which is the same as your other 4 forwards combined and none of them have broken 10 goals.

Yeah I mean, a team's best finisher having a lions share of the scoring isn't exactly groundbreaking. I mean if you look at Goal Involvements, LFC have 9 players with 6 or more. Arsenal have 5. If Rice didn't score today, LFC would have have more than twice the number of Arsenal players at that tier.

I'm not trying to say you don't have a great team around him or that it's Southampton + Salah, but he's definitely dragging them to the title. Arsenal have a better defense and comparable midfield, but your best player has 45 G/A and ours has been injured. And kudos to him for it - he should be the front runner for the ballon d'or.

We've had great Salah seasons before. LFC are where they are because we are getting a great midfield season AND a great defense season. It is a team effort.

Oh since I got interested here are stats for every team with more than 50 goals this season

LFC - 69 (nice) goals ; 9 players with 6 or over Goal involvements
Arsenal - 52 goals; 5 players
Chelsea - 53 goals; 6 players
Man City - 53 goals; 6 players
Tottenham - 55 goals; 6 players

Everyone is chipping in.

 

[bluesfan94]

United just had to play Arsenal to look like a real team again.

First time since they played Liverpool.

Anyway, I can't wait until we have healthy attackers again.

 

[KJS14]

Yeah I mean, a team's best finisher having a lions share of the scoring isn't exactly groundbreaking. I mean if you look at Goal Involvements, LFC have 9 players with 6 or more. Arsenal have 5. If Rice didn't score today, LFC would have have more than twice the number of Arsenal players at that tier.

We've had great Salah seasons before. LFC are where they are because we are getting a great midfield season AND a great defense season. It is a team effort.

Oh since I got interested here are stats for every team with more than 50 goals this season

LFC - 69 (nice) goals ; 9 players with 6 or over Goal involvements
Arsenal - 52 goals; 5 players
Chelsea - 53 goals; 6 players
Man City - 53 goals; 6 players
Tottenham - 55 goals; 6 players

Everyone is chipping in.

And if we arbitrarily use 5 goal contributions as the cutoff then it's Liverpool 9 players and Arsenal 8 players. The difference being that Liverpool has a guy with 44 G/A and Arsenal's top 2 contributors are injured.

Not sure how anyone can look at the below stats and reasonably draw the conclusion that the difference between Liverpool and Arsenal is that everyone is chipping in for Liverpool.

 

[Savant]

And if we arbitrarily use 5 goal contributions as the cutoff then it's Liverpool 9 players and Arsenal 8 players. The difference being that Liverpool has a guy with 44 G/A and Arsenal's top 2 contributors are injured.

Not sure how anyone can look at the below stats and reasonably draw the conclusion that the difference between Liverpool and Arsenal is that everyone is chipping in for Liverpool.

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View attachment 990759

Try looking here

Also - yes 6 is arbitrary, I just picked that because that's where the gap opened up logically. Had 8, 7, 6 but not 5. Didn't put a ton of thought in besides that.

 

[KJS14]

Try looking here

Me: Liverpool deserve to win the title. Their best player should be the ballon d'or front runner.

You: try looking at the table.

Also - yes 6 is arbitrary, I just picked that because that's where the gap opened up logically. Had 8, 7, 6 but not 5. Didn't put a ton of thought in besides that.

And if we picked 9 goals it would be Arsenal 4 players to Liverpool 3 players, but the actual goal contributions from those players would be 68 to 45 in favor of Liverpool. I'm sorry for having recognized how great of a season Salah is having and getting myself dragged into another dumb argument.

 

[Savant]

Me: Liverpool deserve to win the title. Their best player should be the ballon d'or front runner.

You: try looking at the table.

Because you are ignoring everyone else, which is why we are here in the first place. You are saying it’s a one man show. I am saying it isn’t. If you don’t want to look at goal involvements, look at the table. Don’t know what else to tell you

And if we picked 9 goals it would be Arsenal 4 players to Liverpool 3 players, but the actual goal contributions from those players would be 68 to 45 in favor of Liverpool. I'm sorry for having recognized how great of a season Salah is having and getting myself dragged into another dumb argument.

If you want to make a point with that as your metric to prove….something(?) go right ahead. I will read accordingly

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

 

[Savant]

On a similar note. I heard on a podcast today that Chiesa is not yet eligible for a medal, not sure if that’s accurate or not but yeah. Pretty crazy LFC is in track to do the thing without any meaningful transfers. When your backup keeper plays more games than your only summer signing and your magic number in March is 16 points

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

They should get him on the field then only right

 

[Savant]

They should get him on the field then only right

I hope they would. It may not be until late April/early May, but it would be the right thing to do. It’s certainly not going to be based on on-field merit though

 

[KJS14]

Because you are ignoring everyone else, which is why we are here in the first place. You are saying it’s a one man show. I am saying it isn’t. If you don’t want to look at goal involvements, look at the table. Don’t know what else to tell you

If you want to make a point with that as your metric to prove….something(?) go right ahead. I will read accordingly

Make a point? You must be joking at this point.

My whole point was that the biggest difference between Arsenal and Liverpool this season is Salah has 44 goal contributions and Arsenal's best attacker is injured (and lately all of their attackers are injured). Both squads are very good top to bottom, except that funnily enough both squads don't have a clinical striker. Liverpool have other world class players, but if they didn't have Salah then this season would look a lot different. You literally said as much when you said Arsenal are likely the early title favorites for next season and the uncertainty around Salah's contact situation being a big reason for it.

You are the one that picked an arbitrary goal contribution amount to make it seem like Liverpool's going to win the title with some "goal contributions from everyone" narrative, while ignoring that 65% of their goals involve one player. All I did was pick two other arbitrary numbers that tell a different story - the logical story where we recognize that the biggest difference between Arsenal and Liverpool is Salah's 44 goal contributions and not the margin between Mac Allister's 6 and Odegaard's 5.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

So much for “over my dead body”



1 of 9 points since then

He's trying to stay humble.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Liverpool is in 1st because of being ridiculously healthy the entire year and playing against a manager's tactics for the first time.

Teams adjust big time, just look at Arsenal and Arteta. Two years ago, we killed it and no team knew how to set up against us. We would have won the EPL title if the corrupt world cup didn't start in the middle of the f***ing season and Saliba's back injury didn't kill the rest of the comeback. Over time, teams learned to play against us by loading two blocks of four and counterattacking. We haven't been the same since.

Scouts will get the book out on Liverpool and teams will adjust big time. LFC will win the title this year, but will have to evolve to keep it because Arsenal knows their problems and will spend money to fix it. Also, if Salah leaves, then that is a huge loss, even if they get Isak.

Damn... If only Arsenal could do something about teams adjusting to how Arsenal plays.