Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[HabzSauce]

So when you watch the Sharks, you think Celebrini, as the team's best player and play driver, does less than Hutson does as the #2 guy on the Habs? That seems disingenuous to me.

Because we still had our #1 guy last year and we were dogshit. In comes Hutson and we are in the playoffs. Nothing disingenuous about it

 

[Andrei79]

So when you watch the Sharks, you think Celebrini, as the team's best player and play driver, does less than Hutson does as the #2 guy on the Habs? That seems disingenuous to me.

I agree. It isn't a good argument. I'd add that while Hutson is copiloting the bus this season, the WC run has been due to a combination of factors, from key acquisitions, to growth/character by the whole team and excellent coaching putting in an offensive system that overwhelms teams when it's firing. It also helps when you have strong forecheckers on every line who hurt and tire the opposing D, with Xhekaj having their backs. Celebrini, every time I've watched him, has reminded me of a young Crosby in how he works and in how he understands the game in a way no 18 year has any business understanding. Hutson is a genius offensive player, who's already a top 5D in the league in creating space and making plays. They're my easy 1A, 1B choices for the calder and won't bat an eye if either win.

 

[JPeeper]

All this arguing over Celebrini and Hutson when The Wolf is better than both of them.

 

[tiburon12]

Because we still had our #1 guy last year and we were dogshit. In comes Hutson and we are in the playoffs. Nothing disingenuous about it

By this logic you are saying explicitly that Suzuki (and Caufield, Slaf, and other young 20-year-olds) is playing at the exact same level as last year, which demonstrably isn't the case.

It's very curious why you are laying the Habs success singularly on Lane, even putting down your #1 C and captain to do so. It's a tad fanatical.

I agree. It isn't a good argument. I'd add that while Hutson is copiloting the bus this season, the WC run has been due to a combination of factors, from key acquisitions, to growth/character by the whole team and excellent coaching putting in an offensive system that overwhelms teams when it's firing. It also helps when you have strong forecheckers on every line who hurt and tire the opposing D, with Xhekaj having their backs. Celebrini, every time I've watched him, has reminded me of a young Crosby in how he works and in how he understands the game in a way no 18 year has any business understanding. Hutson is a genius offensive player, who's already a top 5D in the league in creating space and making plays. They're my easy 1A, 1B choices for the calder and won't bat an eye if either win.

This is a much more measured take that reflects what i'm seeing when I watch the Habs, thanks. The Habs as a team are just more better and playing a smart system. I'm glad you agree that is much more at play than just Lane coming in.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

How can you not mention your #1 C playing at above a PPG for the first time in his career, or your superstar winger hitting 30 for the first time?

That might be because Hutson was added?? Opposing teams now have one more player to worry about, leaving a bit more space for both. Let alone the difference Hutson has had on the transition and also opening up two lines with quick transition when Hutson and Matheson are seperated.

BTW, Hutson has played the most 5v5 minutes of any habs, so your whole "who drives the team" shtick is not only disingenuous, it disregards just how impactful a rookie dman needs to be to get the most 5v5 minutes on the team.

Caufield had 48 goals in his first 83 games with MSL as a coach, until Caufield had surgery. Hitting 30 was a given. Suzuki's ppg is barely higher than last year.

 

[BoHorvat 53]

It feels like those who are fans of Celebrini have not watched a single second of Hutson and vice-versa. I think it's Hutson having watched both guys, and that's not shitting on Celebrini - Hutson has transformed the Habs offense. Gallagher leads the Habs in relative expected goals % at 13%, while Hutson is 2nd at 12.1%. It's so painfully obvious that Hutson is the Habs' best player, especially since the new year, but it feels like people are clinging on to what Hutson was doing at the beginning of the season when the truth is he's gotten much better in his own end, on top of exploding offensively. It's not a coincidence that the Habs really turned their season around when Hutson really started to break out.

 

[HabzSauce]

By this logic you are saying explicitly that Suzuki (and Caufield, Slaf, and other young 20-year-olds) is playing at the exact same level as last year, which demonstrably isn't the case.

It's very curious why you are laying the Habs success singularly on Lane, even putting down your #1 C and captain to do so. It's a tad fanatical.


This is a much more measured take that reflects what i'm seeing when I watch the Habs, thanks. The Habs as a team are just more better and playing a smart system. I'm glad you agree that is much more at play than just Lane coming in.

No you're misunderstanding if you think I'm saying it's all Lane. Hilarious you think I'm shitting on Suzuki too.

Habs didn't have a 60+ defenceman last year. Now they do. That's a huge boost to any team. In this case it's been very noticable not just on the ice but also in the standings.

When you go from bottom 5 to playoff spot the next year after adding a 60+ defenceman, there is normally a strong correlation between the two. Would you not agree with that?

This brings us back to my OG point where because of the jump, it is easier to quantify the impact that Lane is having with the Habs. Celebrini and the sharks are still dead last so that becomes more difficult to analyze

 

[tiburon12]

That might be because Hutson was added?? Opposing teams now have one more player to worry about, leaving a bit more space for both. Let alone the difference Hutson has had on the transition and also opening up two lines with quick transition when Hutson and Matheson are seperated.

BTW, Hutson has played the most 5v5 minutes of any habs, so your whole "who drives the team" shtick is not only disingenuous, it disregards just how impactful a rookie dman needs to be to get the most 5v5 minutes on the team.

Caufield had 48 goals in his first 83 games with MSL as a coach, until Caufield had surgery. Hitting 30 was a given. Suzuki's ppg is barely higher than last year.

You either are willfully missing the point or are a perfect example of fanatical thinking clouding objective judgement. Neither are a good look.

I watch the games, so you don't need to pretend I don't. Hutson is amazing but it's so clear watching that there are plenty of other positives about the Habs overall play that are unrelated to him. Yes he is a factor in their success, but personally I think Suzuki is the team's MVP this season. Hence, it's curious why Suzuki's play is ignored time and time again in favor of putting ALL the success at Lane's feet.

My "schtick" is highlighting how ridiculous you all look with this hyperbole and erasure, and you're putting on a great display for everyone to see. So by all means keep putting your players down to make Hutson more impressive. Very strange fandom.

 

[tiburon12]

No you're misunderstanding if you think I'm saying it's all Lane. Hilarious you think I'm shitting on Suzuki too.

IDK man, you're the one who said "Because we still had our #1 guy last year and we were dogshit. In comes Hutson and we are in the playoffs." How else is one supposed to interpret this sentiment??

Habs didn't have a 60+ defenceman last year. Now they do. That's a huge boost to any team. In this case it's been very noticable not just on the ice but also in the standings.

When you go from bottom 5 to playoff spot the next year after adding a 60+ defenceman, there is normally a strong correlation between the two. Would you not agree with that?

This brings us back to my OG point where because of the jump, it is easier to quantify the impact that Lane is having with the Habs. Celebrini and the sharks are still dead last so that becomes more difficult to analyze

I'm not saying Lane isn't impactful, he of course is. And i would agree in the correlation, but not that his arrival is the primary causation, as you are arguing for. As mentioned I think Suzuki is the team's MVP and has had more impact on the team than Lane.

I won't disagree about Celebrini re: difficulty in analyzing impact, but that's where watching the games comes in handy. When you watch the Sharks you realize Celebrini is tasked with doing nearly everything, and over the year he's had some tough learning moments where he makes the wrong play. But it's clear he is the engine on the team. I don't get that same clarity when watching Hutson because the Habs have a few other great players that are having excellent seasons.

This whole branch of the debate started because Habs fans are saying that Hutson has had the biggest impact on the team being in the WC hunt, and I just don't think that's true. Suzuki is a better player and having a breakout season as the #1 C, and i feel that's getting pushed down for all this Hutson buoying.

Do you really think Hutson is the team's MVP over Suzuki?

 

[BoHorvat 53]

IDK man, you're the one who said "Because we still had our #1 guy last year and we were dogshit. In comes Hutson and we are in the playoffs." How else is one supposed to interpret this sentiment??


I'm not saying Lane isn't impactful, he of course is. And i would agree in the correlation, but not that his arrival is the primary causation, as you are arguing for. As mentioned I think Suzuki is the team's MVP and has had more impact on the team than Lane.

I won't disagree about Celebrini re: difficulty in analyzing impact, but that's where watching the games comes in handy. When you watch the Sharks you realize Celebrini is tasked with doing nearly everything, and over the year he's had some tough learning moments where he makes the wrong play. But it's clear he is the engine on the team. I don't get that same clarity when watching Hutson because the Habs have a few other great players that are having excellent seasons.

This whole branch of the debate started because Habs fans are saying that Hutson has had the biggest impact on the team being in the WC hunt, and I just don't think that's true. Suzuki is a better player and having a breakout season as the #1 C, and i feel that's getting pushed down for all this Hutson buoying.

Do you really think Hutson is the team's MVP over Suzuki?

Yes, and to be quite honest I'm not totally sure it's even close.

Hutson has turned a corner so massively, it's not even funny. I can filter for the last 20 games on moneypuck, but when doing that he has a relative expected goals % at 21.2% (!!!), the next closest being Struble, his D partner at 13.2%

In that same 20 game timespan, he's 5th in the entire league (Filtered for minimum 175 minutes) behind Barzal, Zuccarello, McDavid and Draisaitl.

Just insane that a rookie defenseman has that type of effect on a team that's in the hunt for the playoffs. People need to start putting SERIOUS respect on Hutson's name, he's already a #1 defenseman in the NHL but once you have a reputation it's hard to shake in the eyes of some.

 

[HabzSauce]

IDK man, you're the one who said "Because we still had our #1 guy last year and we were dogshit. In comes Hutson and we are in the playoffs." How else is one supposed to interpret this sentiment??

Because you were the one making it seem like Suzuki went from 77pts last year to 120pts this year when thats just not the case. He's pacing for just over PPG. That's an improvement but not as big as you seemed to imply. Acquiring a 60+ defenceman will make more of a difference overall than your #1C who is already a stud improving just a bit more. That's my whole point with hutson vs Suzuki. Never said hutson is MVP/better player/etc

I'm not saying Lane isn't impactful, he of course is. And i would agree in the correlation, but not that his arrival is the primary causation, as you are arguing for. As mentioned I think Suzuki is the team's MVP and has had more impact on the team than Lane.

Again same as above - not disagreeing with you here regarding Suzuki, but do you think the difference between last year Suzuki vs this year Suzuki is bigger than adding a 60 point defenceman to your roster?

I won't disagree about Celebrini re: difficulty in analyzing impact, but that's where watching the games comes in handy. When you watch the Sharks you realize Celebrini is tasked with doing nearly everything, and over the year he's had some tough learning moments where he makes the wrong play. But it's clear he is the engine on the team. I don't get that same clarity when watching Hutson because the Habs have a few other great players that are having excellent seasons.

While I agree celebrini is the engine for SJS, We see different things with hutson. He has also been thrown to the wolves & tasked with tough assignments. After Suzuki he is our next biggest play driver and it ain't even close.

 

[tiburon12]

Yes, and to be quite honest I'm not totally sure it's even close.

Hutson has turned a corner so massively, it's not even funny. I can filter for the last 20 games on moneypuck, but when doing that he has a relative expected goals % at 21.2% (!!!), the next closest being Struble, his D partner at 13.2%

In that same 20 game timespan, he's 5th in the entire league (Filtered for minimum 175 minutes) behind Barzal, Zuccarello, McDavid and Draisaitl.

Just insane that a rookie defenseman has that type of effect on a team that's in the hunt for the playoffs. People need to start putting SERIOUS respect on Hutson's name, he's already a #1 defenseman in the NHL but once you have a reputation it's hard to shake in the eyes of some.

It's definitely close.

And before you cherry pick a stat, expand that range to the full season and you'll see that Struble has a better relative expected goals for. Further, Timothy Liljegren has a higher relative expected goals for than Hutson and I would never make the case that he is a) better, or b) more impactful than Celebrini. That stat isn't super helpful here, though one would think that Zuccarello's inclusion on your list should have tipped you off to that....

No one is disrespecting Hutson by challenging that he is the most impactful player on his team. He doesn't even need to be to win the Calder. It doesn't boost or harm his case if Suzuki is the team MVP.

Because you were the one making it seem like Suzuki went from 77pts last year to 120pts this year when thats just not the case. He's pacing for just over PPG. That's an improvement but not as big as you seemed to imply. Acquiring a 60+ defenceman will make more of a difference overall than your #1C who is already a stud improving just a bit more. That's my whole point with hutson vs Suzuki. Never said hutson is MVP/better player/etc

To my eyes Suzuki is playing a much more well-rounded, confident game than he did last year, so sure you can diminish his increase in point production but we all know that doesn't tell the full story. Maybe it's not you specifically, but multiple habs fans in this thread, and i quoted them in a previous post, have implied that Hutson is the key. If he is the key, then he is the MVP. That's where i push back, that inconsistency (again maybe not you specifically).

Again same as above - not disagreeing with you here regarding Suzuki, but do you think the difference between last year Suzuki vs this year Suzuki is bigger than adding a 60 point defenceman to your roster?

This is a great point, but i look at it this way. Making up numbers here, but let's say Suzuki was responsible for 25% of the team's success last year. This year it's 30%, and Hutson is at 20%. Yes Hutson's injection is huge, but Suzuki's slice of the impact pie is still bigger (as it should be for a veteran 1C). Does that make sense?

While I agree celebrini is the engine for SJS, We see different things with hutson. He has also been thrown to the wolves & tasked with tough assignments. After Suzuki he is our next biggest play driver and it ain't even close.

Again, not sure if it was you or another fan, but this is opposite of what i read before (that Lane is the biggest driver), which is why i pushed back. Call it bias towards Suzuki but the erasure of what he has done this year was getting maddening

 

[karltonian]

Yes, and to be quite honest I'm not totally sure it's even close.

Hutson has turned a corner so massively, it's not even funny. I can filter for the last 20 games on moneypuck, but when doing that he has a relative expected goals % at 21.2% (!!!), the next closest being Struble, his D partner at 13.2%

In that same 20 game timespan, he's 5th in the entire league (Filtered for minimum 175 minutes) behind Barzal, Zuccarello, McDavid and Draisaitl.

Just insane that a rookie defenseman has that type of effect on a team that's in the hunt for the playoffs. People need to start putting SERIOUS respect on Hutson's name, he's already a #1 defenseman in the NHL but once you have a reputation it's hard to shake in the eyes of some.

Is a season 20 games?

 

[Fatass]

Is a season 20 games?

Hutson is leading rookies in scoring and he’s a D.

 

[Barrie22]

No you're misunderstanding if you think I'm saying it's all Lane. Hilarious you think I'm shitting on Suzuki too.

Habs didn't have a 60+ defenceman last year. Now they do. That's a huge boost to any team. In this case it's been very noticable not just on the ice but also in the standings.

When you go from bottom 5 to playoff spot the next year after adding a 60+ defenceman, there is normally a strong correlation between the two. Would you not agree with that?

This brings us back to my OG point where because of the jump, it is easier to quantify the impact that Lane is having with the Habs. Celebrini and the sharks are still dead last so that becomes more difficult to analyze

Why do you keep lying about the makeup of the team to make hutson look better? The habs had a 60 point defensemen last year (one that also scored more goals).

The team last year had more offense coming from the defense then this years team. Less coming from the forwards.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

BTW, Hutson has played the most 5v5 minutes of any habs, so your whole "who drives the team" shtick is not only disingenuous, it disregards just how impactful a rookie dman needs to be to get the most 5v5 minutes on the team.

That's because he's played every game. He doesn't lead them in minutes per game

 

[luiginb]

My hot take of the day is that if you put Hutson on the Sharks they'll still be last, but if you put Celebrini on the Habs Nick Suzuki is now their second line center.

 

[NikolaTesla]

My hot take of the day is that if put you Hutson on the Sharks they'll still be last, but if you put Celebrini on the Habs Nick Suzuki is now their second line center.

Those 2 statements have nothing to do with each other ...

 

[Mattb124]

It feels like those who are fans of Celebrini have not watched a single second of Hutson and vice-versa. I think it's Hutson having watched both guys, and that's not shitting on Celebrini - Hutson has transformed the Habs offense. Gallagher leads the Habs in relative expected goals % at 13%, while Hutson is 2nd at 12.1%. It's so painfully obvious that Hutson is the Habs' best player, especially since the new year, but it feels like people are clinging on to what Hutson was doing at the beginning of the season when the truth is he's gotten much better in his own end, on top of exploding offensively. It's not a coincidence that the Habs really turned their season around when Hutson really started to break out.

I tend to agree with your first assessment, and that probably speaks to why so many people are arguing easily reference-able counting stats to make their cases. I’ve watched Hutson a fair bit and, while he is offensively excellent (must see TV), his defense remains a work in progress. I recall when the Sharks played the Habs at home (late last month), Zetterlund scored a goal with Hutson covering him because Hutson simply doesn’t have the size or strength to be effective in net-front battles.

Celebrini just has a more rounded/mature game, better defensive acumen and already good at winning board battles against veterans. That just seems to fit the “most proficient” Calder trophy definition better. It is a shame he missed those 12 games at the beginning of the season as it muddies the counting stats waters.

 

[coooldude]

Rather than trying to discount the other player, I'm just going to stay consistent on "these guys are all having great seasons, what a fun Calder race." Still think it's down to the wire Celebrini-Hutson with all kinds of reasons on both sides why they're deserving. Maybe / likely it'll be a close vote. In a just world, Wolf would make it a three-headed monster, but I think goalies just have too much of an uphill battle.

This was shared by @Juxtaposer on the Sharks Celebrini for Calder thread, and all advanced stats should be taken with a grain of salt but this is why we're so excited about the player. Aside from the points, which are amazing for an 18yo whose best support is a career 30-goal-scorer in Toff and a 22yo Eklund and a 19yo Smith, a lot of his underlying stats are really impressive.

 

[NikolaTesla]

I tend to agree with your first assessment, and that probably speaks to why so many people are arguing easily reference-able counting stats to make their cases. I’ve watched Hutson a fair bit and, while he is offensively excellent (must see TV), his defense remains a work in progress. I recall when the Sharks played the Habs at home (late last month), Zetterlund scored a goal with Hutson covering him because Hutson simply doesn’t have the size or strength to be effective net-front battles.

Celebrini just has a more rounded/mature game, better defensive acumen and already good at winning board battles against veterans. That just seems to fit the “most proficient” Calder trophy definition better. It is a shame he missed those 12 games at the beginning of the season as it muddies the counting stats waters.

The 12 games wouldnt change the fact that hutson's ppg as a defensemen is much more impressive than Cele's ppg as a forward.

 

[Mattb124]

The 12 games wouldnt change the fact that hutson's ppg as a defensemen is much more impressive than Cele's ppg as a forward.

It would change the narrative about production, and would shift the discussion to other aspects of their respective games which favors Celebrini. The Calder trophy isn’t awarded to the rookie who scores the most points, but rather the one who is most proficient.

 

[Frank Drebin]

It would change the narrative about production, and would shift the discussion to other aspects of their respective games which favors Celebrini. The Calder trophy isn’t awarded to the rookie who scores the most points, but rather the one who is most proficient.

Most proficient certainly leaves it up to interpretation. I've always felt that it went to the player who had the most impressive rookie season. I still feel that contextually and historically Hutsons season is the most impressive out of the 4 candidates.

But no shame in losing out to Celebrini.

 

[coooldude]

Odds have moved to essentially a tie with Celebrini just a hair ahead at -110 to -125 and Hutson at +100 to -110. Wolf the long shot at +2200 and Michkov not meaningfully in the race at +5000.

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/hockey/nhl/calder-trophy/winner

 

[Mobiandi]

Is a season 20 games?

Yeah, Hutson would be running away with the Most Improved Rookie of the Year if that was an award. Unfortunately a season is 82 games, and he’s been the third best guy