Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[My3Sons]

I figured I'd respond to my 3 fellow Habs fans who are all choosing Celebrini. I wouldn't be so quick to overlook Hutson, especially with Montreal's successes.

First 21 games - Hutson 11 points, pace of 43 points in 82 games. Habs are dead last in East, at the important milestone date of US Thanksgiving, which is when experts usually "call" seasons and playoff races.

Next 37 games - Huston 32 points, pace of 71 points in 82 games. Habs with the 13th best record in the NHL in that stretch, and back in the playoff hunt. In those 37 games, he is 4th in scoring among defenseman in the league.

I think it's a lot easier to tie team success in Montreal with Hutson's performances than it is for Celebrini, and I think that could come into play by season's end, especially with Celebrini also missing ~10 games or so.

I do agree that all 3 players are fantastic, and it's also still possible for any of them to go "off" in the remaining 20 games. But I do think if season ended today, Hutson remains in the lead. And I think if Montral qualifies for playoffs, or even comes super close to it - it will just help boost Huston's chances further.

That's an interresting correlation and I had the same thought. Hard to say to what degree it is causation but an argument can certainly be made that the Habs rise and fall with how well Hutson plays.

 

[Barrie22]

While Celebrini plays a pretty complete game, he still needs to refine it based on learning what works at the NHL level. Case in point, last night he lost a puck in the NZ that went back for a scoring chance against. The move that led to the lost puck likely worked at every level he has played at, but NHL players are better.

He is also still sub-50% on face-off wins, so improving details of the game like that.

And celebrini can also learn how to do things more efficiently, right now he is like a rabid dog and uses a lot of energy just puck hounding. The other game against the flames there was a part where he was doing suicides for a good 5 seconds chasing after a flame bringing the puck up the ice, he made the transition for the flames harder but he spent so much energy to not even end up with the puck.

 

[wetcoast]

When you are the best, they don't call you great; they call you Lane Hutson

I hear that they are actually thinking of renaming the Calder to the Hutson trophy.

Of course when CC has his next scoring surge talk of Maurice Richard will begin again too......

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Celebrini does so much more out there than Michkov does , why ignore that? Even if points and ppg are equal Celebrini will clear him

He’s even been getting some PK time as of late. Anyone know where to get advanced stats on offensive vs defensive zone time with regards to TOI? And exclude PK minutes?

 

[sbhnur]

There's obviously more to it than this, but it certainly should be indicative of something.

With 44 point, Michkov is tied for 70th among forwards in scoring.
With 42 points, Celebrini is tied for 84th among forwards for scoring.
Dustin Wolf sits at 15th for GAA and 10 for SV.
With 44 points, Hutson is 10th among defensemen for scoring.

What Celebrini and Michkov are doing is simply keeping up with two guys who right now are putting up top 10 numbers compared to his defensemen peers and top half of his starting goalies peers.

I agree with your point. You need need to do some maths here, too. There are way more forwards in the NHL than defensemen and especially goalies. Just some context to your numbers.

My current fav for the Calder is Celebrini, but it's not a lock if MM can continue his recent play or Hutson gets going again, who knows? It's fun to watch!

I personally just dont see a goalie win the Calder when the competition is so strong. Maybe a good thing? I remember Manson winning it years ago..

 

[Guy Larose]

 

[ole ole]

If the season ended today Lane would win the Calder but we still have some 20 odd games to go.

 

[ole ole]

I hear that they are actually thinking of renaming the Calder to the Hutson trophy.

Of course when CC has his next scoring surge talk of Maurice Richard will begin again too......

Get back to us when you have something to add to the discussion instead of your usual malarkey.

 

[ole ole]

And Hutson is pretty bad defensively, -17 rating too

And Celebrini is a -21 so what's your point?

 

[Kshahdoo]

I totally agree. It's mind-boggling how much MM can improve and will improve when he gets proper nhl power skating programms soon. This will push his overall performance in nearly all areas.

And dont get me wrong, Celebrini is an amazing prospect. But I also think he was way better developed by now if you compare both players. So there might be a big difference for the upcoming years after the rookie season. Will be interesting to see

Both are very different players though and difficult to compare.

I'd say the main Michkov's problem is he came to the league overweight. Weight should come naturally, and Michkov was working way too hard to get more muscles in 2024 offseason. As a result his conditioning wasn't at the level needed, and he's been suffering from this the whole season. When he plays rested, he's an above PPG player already and creates so many scoring chances for his teammates.

I'm pretty sure he'll lose the Calder race to Celebrini, Hutson or maybe even to Wolf, but at his highest level he's the best rookie of the season by far. There were already games where he showed his game breaking talent and basically destroyed opponents. Were there the same games for Celebrini and Hutson? I don't actually remember any.

 

[wetcoast]

Get back to us when you have something to add to the discussion instead of your usual malarkey.

Address that to your guy who interjects it without reason, I never do that but I will call out people who do.

So call him out or double down on hypocrisy but I'll let you call him next time with a PM okay.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

And Hutson is pretty bad defensively, -17 rating too

Almost his entire present -16 is due to empty net situations, as he's -13 in those.

He's simply -2 at 5v5 (50GF, 52GA). Better than Celebrini who is -7 at 5v5 in 11 less games. Michkov is -3.

Thank you for showing how pedestrian of a fan you are.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Now show us rankings for goals against.

With Empty net or not? Because if you had any wits about you, you'd go check situational stats and realize Hutson's GA is massively tanked by empty nets. His 5v5 GA/60 is better than either Celebrini and Michkov.

Edit: here it is

300 minutes minimum

5v5 GA/60
Celebrini 2.97 335th among 393 forwards
15% worst
Michkov 3.06 351st among 393 forwards
11% worst
Hutson 2.89 175th among 214 defensemen
18% worst

 

[sbhnur]

I'd say the main Michkov's problem is he came to the league overweight. Weight should come naturally, and Michkov was working way too hard to get more muscles in 2024 offseason. As a result his conditioning wasn't at the level needed, and he's been suffering from this the whole season. When he plays rested, he's an above PPG player already and creates so many scoring chances for his teammates.

I'm pretty sure he'll lose the Calder race to Celebrini, Hutson or maybe even to Wolf, but at his highest level he's the best rookie of the season by far. There were already games where he showed his game breaking talent and basically destroyed opponents. Were there the same games for Celebrini and Hutson? I don't actually remember any.

Yeah, it's thrilling to see him dominate a game. He stands out so much when he's on his top of his game. Haven't seen this quite a while as Flyers fan.

Haven't seen enough of Celebrini and Hutson to judge if they were able to dictate a game like this tbh.

 

[FlyguyOX]

With Empty net or not? Because if you had any wits about you, you'd go check situational stats and realize Hutson's GA is massively tanked by empty nets. His 5v5 GA/60 is better than either Celebrini and Michkov.

Edit: here it is

300 minutes minimum

5v5 GA/60
Celebrini 2.97 335th among 393 forwards
15% worst
Michkov 3.06 351st among 393 forwards
11% worst
Hutson 2.89 175th among 214 defensemen
18% worst

So we don’t credit him for any 6v5 points because of his Eng against, fair?

Btw Michkov leading nhl in points since 4nations break

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

So we don’t credit him for any 6v5 points because of his Eng against, fair?

5v5 is arguably the best measure of a player's worth.

Btw, Celebrini also has a huge part of his +/- from empty netters.

Grow-up, remove your ego, control for your bias, and realize empty netters are highly situational and we are living in a time when there's more empty netters than ever. The effect of more empty net goals will magnify the higher teams, who will score more of them, and lower teams, who will allow more of them.

It remains that, defensively, it's pretty close for all 3 of them, with Hutson fairing slightly better vs his position, but when it comes to offense, Hutson has reached the top of the league at his position and will also probably finish top 10 all-time rookie D (needs 16pts in 23 games), while neither the two forwards will finish top 50 forwards in the league, nor close to top 20 all-time rookie forwards.

Btw, Hutson doesn't have any 6v5 points, so your attempt is pretty ridiculous. He's 0GF/13GA in empty net situations and doesn't have a single ENP.

 

[coooldude]

It remains that, defensively, it's pretty close for all 3 of them, with Hutson fairing slightly better vs his position, but when it comes to offense, Hutson has reached the top of the league at his position and will also probably finish top 10 all-time rookie D (needs 16pts in 23 games), while neither the two forwards will finish top 50 forwards in the league, nor close to top 20 all-time rookie forwards.

Mandatory disclaimer, Hutson having great season, could win, amazing, blah blah

The bolded is not true by any statistical measure people have been sharing in this thread. Celebrini is measured around 40-50%ile defensively versus peers, and has some spikes in the top 6 of entire NHL (turnovers generated, puck battles won).

Even Michkov has some decent defensive stats.

Hutson's OZ starts are high and DZ starts are very low, he's not facing top competition, his advanced stats show very bad defensively and the eye test shows he's getting better but it's not his strength. Rather, he's top of league in certain offensive stats like successful slot passes /60, which is awesome. But let's not pretend Hutson is "slightly better versus his position" at defense vs Michkov or Celebrini. He's doing great for a guy of his size, profile, and age, but he's in the Calder conversation because of his passing and OZ offensive generation.

 

[wetcoast]

5v5 is arguably the best measure of a player's worth.

Btw, Celebrini also has a huge part of his +/- from empty netters.

Grow-up, remove your ego, control for your bias, and realize empty netters are highly situational and we are living in a time when there's more empty netters than ever. The effect of more empty net goals will magnify the higher teams, who will score more of them, and lower teams, who will allow more of them.

It remains that, defensively, it's pretty close for all 3 of them, with Hutson fairing slightly better vs his position, but when it comes to offense, Hutson has reached the top of the league at his position and will also probably finish top 10 all-time rookie D (needs 16pts in 23 games), while neither the two forwards will finish top 50 forwards in the league, nor close to top 20 all-time rookie forwards.

Btw, Hutson doesn't have any 6v5 points, so your attempt is pretty ridiculous. He's 0GF/13GA in empty net situations and doesn't have a single ENP.

Is this supposed to be a positive for Hutson?

 

[FlyguyOX]

Mandatory disclaimer, Hutson having great season, could win, amazing, blah blah

The bolded is not true by any statistical measure people have been sharing in this thread. Celebrini is measured around 40-50%ile defensively versus peers, and has some spikes in the top 6 of entire NHL (turnovers generated, puck battles won).

Even Michkov has some decent defensive stats.

Hutson's OZ starts are high and DZ starts are very low, he's not facing top competition, his advanced stats show very bad defensively and the eye test shows he's getting better but it's not his strength. Rather, he's top of league in certain offensive stats like successful slot passes /60, which is awesome. But let's not pretend Hutson is "slightly better versus his position" at defense vs Michkov or Celebrini. He's doing great for a guy of his size, profile, and age, but he's in the Calder conversation because of his passing and OZ offensive generation.

His extremely bad defensive impact is well represented by all public analytics, which all account for score situation

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Mandatory disclaimer, Hutson having great season, could win, amazing, blah blah

The bolded is not true by any statistical measure people have been sharing in this thread. Celebrini is measured around 40-50%ile defensively versus peers, and has some spikes in the top 6 of entire NHL (turnovers generated, puck battles won).

Even Michkov has some decent defensive stats.

Hutson's OZ starts are high and DZ starts are very low, he's not facing top competition, his advanced stats show very bad defensively and the eye test shows he's getting better but it's not his strength. Rather, he's top of league in certain offensive stats like successful slot passes /60, which is awesome. But let's not pretend Hutson is "slightly better versus his position" at defense vs Michkov or Celebrini. He's doing great for a guy of his size, profile, and age, but he's in the Calder conversation because of his passing and OZ offensive generation.

Which is pretty normal for a rookie offensive dman. In fact, he has a very similar Offzs% as Hughes had in his rookie season.

Also, Michkov is slightly higher than Hutson at 62.77%. Only Celebrini is closer to 50%. As for QoC, Hutson's been used mostly versus top 6 competition, which is also high for a rookie D, compared historically to other rookie Ds. QoC can also be a misleading stats because it's based on team offensive nomenclature (1 to 23) rather than averaging opposition's average output, which can lead to misrepresentation. Same for QoT.

I've watched most of Habs games this year and his opposition has been mostly top 6, which can't be far off from neither Michkov nor Celebrin. FFS Hutson has the second most minutes at ES on the Habs and has been used the most with Matheson who has the most minutes at ES. Matheson/Hutson has by far the most ES minutes of any Habs pairing and both played the most minutes at ES.

You're 1-exagerating his offensive zone usage (he's 43%O vs 40%D for TOI at ES versus Celebrini's 40%O vs 40%D, making the difference much much smaller), by using OZS% as the benchmark (61% vs 39% O/D vs 50vs50), which skews where he's actually been and 2-exagerating the difference in QoC.

You're also disregarding how defense is much harder to break through at a young age. There's a reason why defenseman come in later on average than forwards.

Despite your caveats, which can be argued another way, Hutson is still slightly better in output defensively at 5v5. Better GA/60 at 5v5, better GF% at 5v5.

You also try to constrain his impact to the offensive zone, whereas he's had a huge impact on Habs transition.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

His extremely bad defensive impact is well represented by all public analytics, which all account for score situation

No they don't. They use ES, PP, PK, but don't usually differentiate EN out of ES.

Show me the stat that uses 5v5 specifically. The ones you used previously in this thread used ES, which includes EN.

 

[FlyguyOX]

No they don't. They use ES, PP, PK, but don't usually differentiate EN out of ES.

Show me the stat that uses 5v5 specifically. The ones you used previously in this thread used ES, which includes EN.

Yes, they do. There is a score and venue adjustment.