Because Michkov's ultimate upside and value has always been his scoring. Not his two-way play as a centerman. That is why.
Epic Calder Race 2024-25
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Bouboumaster
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- Apr 27, 2005
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Because a higher proportion of Michkov's ice time is on the PP. And he's spent no time on the PK.
And Celebrini plays more so he has more chances to score. Celebrini has averaged 0:10 a game on PK.
By my rough math Michkov's PP time is 16.86% of his total ice time. Celebrini's PP time is 16.29% of his total ice time. You're really splitting hairs there. The overall ice time increase Celbrini gets is a bigger advantage to scoring more, as we see in the scoring race every year. Highest scorers->biggest minutes.
There's obviously more to it than this, but it certainly should be indicative of something.
With 44 point, Michkov is tied for 70th among forwards in scoring.
With 42 points, Celebrini is tied for 84th among forwards for scoring.
Dustin Wolf sits at 15th for GAA and 10 for SV.
With 44 points, Hutson is 10th among defensemen for scoring.
What Celebrini and Michkov are doing is simply keeping up with two guys who right now are putting up top 10 numbers compared to his defensemen peers and top half of his starting goalies peers.
With 44 point, Michkov is tied for 70th among forwards in scoring.
With 42 points, Celebrini is tied for 84th among forwards for scoring.
Dustin Wolf sits at 15th for GAA and 10 for SV.
With 44 points, Hutson is 10th among defensemen for scoring.
What Celebrini and Michkov are doing is simply keeping up with two guys who right now are putting up top 10 numbers compared to his defensemen peers and top half of his starting goalies peers.
EdmFlyersfan
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In this case, their deployments isn't different enough to make a big difference, but all else being equa, you'd expect MM's all situations p/60 to probably be ~3% higher using their weighted average ice time distributions vs average situational scoring rates. But more generally, using all situations scoring rates isn't a great way to compare 2 players because of difference in ice time and differences in the way they are used on their team's PP.
But more ice time does not equate to a higher p/60.
Michkov is awesome BTW, I just don't think he's been better than Celebrini, and it's certainly not time to be chest thumping about predicing him as the rookie scoring winner when he's only now just tied for the rookie scoring lead after 8 points in his last 3 games.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
Another way to look at it though, that has been mentioned, is Celebrini plays more, but is matched up against opponents shut down/top lines. Michkov for the most part has not.
GrandBison
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PP60 is a useless stat. The better you play, the more you should be on the ice. Not all good shifts will end with a goal.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
I've seen Celebrini play about eight or nine complete games this season, and that was probably the worst I've seen him play.
Seemed like every good scoring chance he had he shot the puck wide and on multiple occasions he looked a little lost out there positionally.
Honest question on this from somebody who doesn’t watch Celebrini much - but knows he’s been damn impressive.
He seems to have come into the NHL mostly “formed” - meaning, his game pretty complete. I know he’ll get better but… how? Besides getting bigger and stronger?
I look at Michkov and there are a couple of obvious deficiencies - skating, stamina. So fairly tangible physical qualities to improve which will lead to increase ice time, and scoring.
I’m not saying Celebrini won’t improve but what is he improving? He doesn’t seem to have a weakness at 18 already so just curious how much actual untapped potential there is.
Akrapovince
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McDavid had no glaring weaknesses offensively from 2016 until 2023 and has improved year over year during that stretch.
Learning how to be a pro, learning how to play in the nhl and having a better team are all factors that can help Celebrini improve.
Everything he is good at now, he can get even better at in the future.
Stewie Griffin
What the deuce
Strength, speed...figuring out new ways to get around opponents/score on goaltenders. You'd also like to think/hope he improves as the team improves. i.e. Having better linemates to set him up/to set up. He's already a menace on the boards, just wait until he's stronger.
He's already super confident, but as he gets more comfortable to the league, that should also grow.
While Celebrini plays a pretty complete game, he still needs to refine it based on learning what works at the NHL level. Case in point, last night he lost a puck in the NZ that went back for a scoring chance against. The move that led to the lost puck likely worked at every level he has played at, but NHL players are better.
He is also still sub-50% on face-off wins, so improving details of the game like that.
sbhnur
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- Dec 26, 2020
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I totally agree. It's mind-boggling how much MM can improve and will improve when he gets proper nhl power skating programms soon. This will push his overall performance in nearly all areas.
And dont get me wrong, Celebrini is an amazing prospect. But I also think he was way better developed by now if you compare both players. So there might be a big difference for the upcoming years after the rookie season. Will be interesting to see
Both are very different players though and difficult to compare.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
I'm not really qualified to answer this, as I said, I believe last night was the 9th game of his I've watched at the NHL level, but I think he could definitely improve his shot and his shot selection.
He really had great edge work, and pretty explosive first step and acceleration and guys like that are often able to use those abilities to create seams both for threading passes and finding shooting lanes.
Celebrini is effective at this, but often his shot selection isn't utilizing screens or shooting coming out screens and his release itself I think can be improved to be a little more hidden making a sudden seam even more deadly. (Interestingly, and again, I've seen less than 10 games, but he appears to have very good "catch and release," meaning when he is given the puck in a shooting position, he's great at taking the pass and getting the shot off very quickly. Where I think his release could be improved is when he already has possession and he's carrying the puck and then making his shot.)
He already protects the puck very well and his boardwork is impressive for a rookie, but size and strength will only make this aspect of his game better.
With all of that being said, if I had to guess at where he will make the most improvement is leaning and adapting to the speed and strength of NHL players. He seems to have excellent hockey IQ and his ability to anticipate and predict, for lack of a better word, what his opponents will do is very impressive. As he learns and adjusts to the pro-game, this skill set will become much more pronounced and he will become much deadlier offensively and defensively.
FerrisRox
"Wanna go, Prettyboy?"
I don't think he's even going to be one of the three finalists.
- Jul 25, 2007
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I echo the shot and shot selection point, but also just finish in general. From NHL edge data, he's shooting less than 50%ile in shooting percentage, despite having really favorable shot counts and shot speeds. If you had him at 11% or 12% instead of 7-8%, he'd have (I'm too lazy to look up the math) 5? more goals.
He is going to get a bit faster, a bit stronger every year just like any 18 year old, and then it's the higher order stuff. He already looks really good, but it's always "for an 18 year old." Better DZ and NZ reads will make him a Selke candidate. Better shot selection and puck possession decisions will drive more points as well. And honestly, the players around him, especially on D. The Sharks currently ice one player who should be middle pair on a decent team (Walman) and every other D is a bottom pair or fringe/press box guy. Even last night, Walman had two golden doorstep opportunities in OT from Celebrini and botched them.
