Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[Frank Drebin]

Equally absurd for the center to be better defensively, yet here we are

Such a weird comment

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Celebrini plays a much more well rounded game than Hutson.

Doubtful. Hutson has the second most avg TOI per game on the Habs! That woud not happen if he wasn’t well rounded or reliable!

 

[bud12]

Hutson regain the scoring lead. Michkov getting hot. Should be exciting

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Doubtful.

Hutson's defensive play gets underrated. He'll probably never even be average, but he's been adequate since about December. He's improved a lot this year, specifically in terms of his decision making through the neutral zone and up ice. Earlier in the year, he was trying to force the offense, trying a lot of high risk low reward plays that ended up costing the Habs. But he's made some great adjustments throughout the season and has calmed down a lot in those dangerous areas.

That said, Celebrini's 200 foot game is definitely better than Hutson's, despite his age. He can get a bit lost when he's hemmed in the defensive zone (as 18 year old centers do) but his overall on ice impacts have been excellent due to his already elite puck carrying and play driving abilities.

I still have Hutson as the front runner though. I think Celebrini will have to outscore his former teammate by at least 4-5 points to be the favorite.

Hutson has the second most avg TOI per game on the Habs! That woud not happen if he wasn’t well rounded or reliable!

That's just plain false. There are countless instances of coaches giving out tons of ice time to defensively unreliable players. Connor Bedard is probably the least reliable center in the league but gets over 20 mins a night, and Tony freakin DeAngelo is averaging nearly 25 mins this year.

There are plenty of better arguments than appealing to authority here.

 

[RRhoads]

The word "epic" has totally lost its meaning

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hutson cant scoar goals
[Mod]


Such a weird comment

Feeling pretty good about my projection below for Hutson from Dec 9th (he was on pace for 0 goals 55 points at the time). People doubting his goal scoring abilities clearly never watched him at BU.

Assuming the top rookie skaters play the rest of their games, I'd predict:

• Michkov 27 goals 68 points in 80gp
• Hutson 5 goals 60 points in 82gp
• Celebrini 24 goals 58 points in 70gp

Hutson's currently on pace for 5g 61p.

Michkov was on pace for 79 points at the time of that projection. I anticipated some regression, but he really went ice cold. He's on pace for 58p, but I think he'll heat back up down the stretch.

Below are my updated projections for the rookie scoring race:

• Celebrini 70gp 25 goals 62 points
• Michkov 80gp 25 goals 62 points
• Hutson 82gp 5 goals 62 points

3 way tie for the rookie scoring lead would be fun. Voters probably say tie goes to the defenseman, but they also love voting based on pedigree. And if Michkov does stay close with Celebrini, he might steal some of his votes. Who knows, he could really catch fire and then it's Celebrini who'd be stealing his votes.

Or they just give it to the goalie. Hard trophy for them to win but a 3 way scoring tie could split a lot of votes.

 

[Konnan511]

Marco Kasper with 16 points in his last 18 games. I know he is not in the Calder Race due to a shit coach earlier in the season. What could have been if TM was the coach from the beginning of the season.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Hutson's defensive play gets underrated. He'll probably never even be average, but he's been adequate since about December. He's improved a lot this year, specifically in terms of his decision making through the neutral zone and up ice. Earlier in the year, he was trying to force the offense, trying a lot of high risk low reward plays that ended up costing the Habs. But he's made some great adjustments throughout the season and has calmed down a lot in those dangerous areas.

That said, Celebrini's 200 foot game is definitely better than Hutson's, despite his age. He can get a bit lost when he's hemmed in the defensive zone (as 18 year old centers do) but his overall on ice impacts have been excellent due to his already elite puck carrying and play driving abilities.

I still have Hutson as the front runner though. I think Celebrini will have to outscore his former teammate by at least 4-5 points to be the favorite.


That's just plain false. There are countless instances of coaches giving out tons of ice time to defensively unreliable players. Connor Bedard is probably the least reliable center in the league but gets over 20 mins a night, and Tony freakin DeAngelo is averaging nearly 25 mins this year.

There are plenty of better arguments than appealing to authority here.

4th percentile in defense, for a defenseman, will prevent him from winning the calder (as it rightfully should) no matter how many points he scores.

But, voters showed last year they don't care about defense, so who knows.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Pretty wild crop

Celebrini is probably the best 1OA player drafted since Matthews in 2016 (No disrespect intended towards J. Hughes, but I think Celebrini will be the better player and certainly had the better rookie season)
Michkov best Russian Prospect in at least 10 years
Wolf best goalie prospect since Vasilevski
Hutson putting up offensive numbers not seen by a defenseman as a rookie not named Hughes or Makar since the early 90s and could very possibly crack top 10 all time rookie seasons for offense.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Celebrini is disgusting , Bedard goes to bed at night and dreams he's Macklin flying out there

 

[bud12]

That would be unprecedented. See: Boldy

View attachment 983173 4th percentile in defense, for a defenseman, will prevent him from winning the calder (as it rightfully should) no matter how many points he scores.

But, voters showed last year they don't care about defense, so who knows.

All those empty net against you can really destroy your fancy stats....

 

[FlyguyOX]

All those empty net against you can really destroy your fancy stats....

lol yeah, right, that's what is doing it lol. Those fancy stats just can't capture game state and factor it in, I guess!

/s

 

[bud12]

lol yeah, right, that's what is doing it lol. Those fancy stats just can't capture game state and factor it in, I guess!

/s

They clearly can't

 

[Summer Rose]

I highly doubt Dustin Wolf wins it, and while he'll get some votes, he'll probably get fewer votes than he truly deserves. It's really difficult to compare goaltenders to skaters, so being a goaltender is simply a strike against him when it comes to the Calder race. It's also uncommon for goaltenders to win individual trophies that are open to all players, such as the Calder, unless they're clearly better than their (skater) competition for the award by a very large margin. That's another strike against him.

I'm not saying that he's deserving of winning it, and feel that it's Macklin Celebrini's to lose at this point of the season (unless something drastic happens), but it's an interesting thing to point out.