Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[Fraser28]

If it ended today, it's Hutson. More points than anyone and he's a blueliner.

But this is far from over. Four guys could win this. Epic race is epic and I'm looking forward to seeing how it ends.

I think it would be Celebrini if it ended today. Way higher PPG than Hutson.
1st line centre on the worst team in the league excelling in the toughest matchups while being responsible defensively.

Duh. He's a forward.

If Makar finishes a year with more points than McDavid or MacKinnon, he instantly gets all related trophies.

To have a better case than Hutson, Celebrini needs at least an extra 10 points lead on a defenseman. If anything I'm thinking Wolf is closer to Hutson currently.

Considering how many fewer games he has played, he basically does have that lead in terms of PPG.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think it would be Celebrini if it ended today. Way higher PPG than Hutson.
1st line centre on the worst team in the league excelling in the toughest matchups while being responsible defensively.

His points per game are higher. Not 'way higher'. He's a centerman, Hutson's a blueliner. Great that he's responsible defensively, Hutson is a defenseman.

Considering how many fewer games he has played, he basically does have that lead in terms of PPG.

Leading in PPG is not the same thing as leading in points.

Like I said, this is anyone's race. But PPG don't tilt the scales here, esp when you're comparing a center to a blueliner.

 

[Fraser28]

His points per game are higher. Not 'way higher'. He's a centerman, Hutson's a blueliner. Great that he's responsible defensively, Hutson is a defenseman.

Leading in PPG is not the same thing as leading in points.

Like I said, this is anyone's race. But PPG don't tilt the scales here, esp when you're comparing a center to a blueliner.

We clearly just disagree and that’s fine. I feel the better PPG does tip the scales, you don’t. We’ll see.

 

[Xirik]

and with just half a game in Casey is leading rookie defensemen in goals.

 

[karltonian]

macklin gets one on wolf

 

[StrawHatEklund]

Celebrini’s goal makes it 41 points in 46 games.

 

[Fraser28]

Celebrini’s goal makes it 41 points in 46 games.

Yup and 18 goals in 46 games is impressive for a rookie too!

 

[Rubi]

Wolf gets his 20th win of the season and finishes the game Sv% at .931.

 

[karltonian]

Wolf gets his 20th win of the season and finishes the game Sv% at .931.

good thing the sharks defense is dreadful or it could have gone to OT and who knows (though probably still a sharks loss and maybe an even higher sv%)

 

[Rubi]

good thing the sharks defense is dreadful or it could have gone to OT and who knows (though probably still a sharks loss and maybe an even higher sv%)

Georgiev finished the night with a .917 Sv%. Last I heard the goalie is part of the defense.

 

[karltonian]

Georgiev finished the night with a .917 Sv%. Last I heard the goalie is part of the defense.

I don't think georgiev being a good goalie is a hill you want to climb.

 

[Rubi]

I don't think georgiev being a good goalie is a hill you want to climb.

Not saying that but he was good tonight.

 

[Star Platinum]

 

[karltonian]

matthews catching strays

 

[kerrabria]

His points per game are higher. Not 'way higher'. He's a centerman, Hutson's a blueliner. Great that he's responsible defensively, Hutson is a defenseman.

Yet Celebrini contributes way more in his own zone. Macklin would be the guy you take for both production and defense. This discussion is on par with "Pacioretty is an elite winger" and "Danault is a 1C."

Celebrini should be the unanimous ROY.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Yet Celebrini contributes way more in his own zone. Macklin would be the guy you take for both production and defense. This discussion is on par with "Pacioretty is an elite winger" and "Danault is a 1C."

Celebrini should be the unanimous ROY.

Nobody's going to be unanimous anything. Nobody is running away with anything. And it's very clear you haven't watched Lane Hutson.

 

[iago]

I think this will be one of the best Calder races in a long time. Michkov v. Celebrini v. Stankoven. How many points will each of those three forwards get?

Or perhaps defenseman Hutson takes it.

What do you guys think: who wins it, and how does the race compare to other years?

Wolf wins.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Hutson's defense is still too bad to pick him over Celebrini.

Hoping Michkov's post-break rejuvenation continues to make this even more interesting.

 

[HabsForHire]

it's hutson or celebrini ainec

 

[FlyguyOX]

it's hutson or celebrini ainec

I'd pick Wolf over Hutson

 

[coooldude]

Calder odds and implied probability of win:

• Celebrini -300 (75% implied win %)
• Hutson +330 (23.3%)
• Wolf +1400 (6.7%)
• Michkov +3000 (3.2%)

If you're confused why those #'s don't add up to 100%, welcome to gambling. Heavy favorites pay less than the oddsmakers believe is likely, so probably Celebrini's chances are <75%. However, huge underdogs pay out higher than likely in order to incentivize bets. And, players who have a lot of believers (e.g. from passionate fan bases) often have odds that imply a higher % chance than is "realistic" because the oddsmakers are trading off of irrational betting due to fandom. Therefore my guess is:

• The implied "actual" % chance of winning for Celebrini may be closer to 70%
• Hutson maybe closer to 20% (lots of action due to Habs fandom)
• Wolf and Michkov are the only other realistic options and maybe these %'s are accurate, OR if they are inflated and it's really a two-horse race, then it's still 75%/25% Celebrini/Michkov according to the betting world.
• The lines can move quite quickly, so if Michkov has 10 games at 2ppg or something insane, I'm sure he'll rocket up. If Celebrini or Hutson go completely cold or get injured, the lines will move a lot.
• But if things stay somewhat the same -- Celebrini around 0.9ppg, Hutson where he is, Wolf where he is and Michkov where he is or even better, then the Calder is likely Celebrini's. This is despite Wolf being an extremely impressive rookie, Hutson surpassing expectations, and Michkov looking very dangerous if inconsistent.