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Epic Calder Race 2024-25

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BoHorvat 53 said:
It does matter but it shouldn't be a penalizing factor to Hutson that he's been healthy lmao that may be the most impressively dumb logic I've seen on here.
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Who suggested that - other than you of course? I think the notion is that Celebrini’s rate of production is markedly better than Hutson’s, who is only 2 points ahead and has cooled off considerably while Celebrini has maintained.
 
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karltonian said:
As stated several times before, the whole "leading the race" is always put into perspective by the fact that Celebrini has played fewer games than the others. Fairly or not that will always put a damper on the outright leader if they are not really far ahead. Regardless of their position.
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Mattb124 said:
Who suggested that - other than you of course? I think the notion is that Celebrini’s rate of production is markedly better than Hutson’s, who is only 2 points ahead and has cooled off considerably while Celebrini has maintained.
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Take a second to learn the context before jumping in on a conversation.

Also to suggest Hutson has cooled off is ridiculous - he has 15 points in his last 17 games (Since the start of 2025) compared to Celebrini who has 12 points in his last 16 games lmfao
 
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BoHorvat 53 said:
It does matter but it shouldn't be a penalizing factor to Hutson that he's been healthy lmao that may be the most impressively dumb logic I've seen on here.
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Who said it was a penalizing factor to Hutson that he's been healthy? You're just out here beating up all the strawmen, The Wizard and I over here, nice.
 
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BoHorvat 53 said:
Take a second to learn the context before jumping in on a conversation.

Also to suggest Hutson has cooled off is ridiculous - he has 15 points in his last 17 games (Since the start of 2025) compared to Celebrini who has 12 points in his last 16 games lmfao
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Hutson has 2 points in his last 7 games. Yeah, I think that’s the definition of cooling off. Celebrini on the other has been consistent all season and you make 12 points in his last 16 sound terrible. Which is .75 PPG which is .01 below Hutson’s .75 PPG for the season.
 
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BoHorvat 53 said:
Take a second to learn the context before jumping in on a conversation.

Also to suggest Hutson has cooled off is ridiculous - he has 15 points in his last 17 games (Since the start of 2025) compared to Celebrini who has 12 points in his last 16 games lmfao
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Easy there skippy. You don’t seem to understand that the “points per game” calculation has a numerator, a denominator, and a quotient. The quote you posted was clearly in regards to the quotient, in that Celebrini has only slightly fewer (2) points than Hutson with significantly fewer games played and hence has a significantly better p/gp (quotient). You are the only one hung up on the denominator (games played).

In the past 7 games Hutson has 2 points, both secondary assists, and was pointless in 5 straight games. You can call that a Calder-winning pace of production, I will call that cooling off.
 
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nerdybeard said:
"The Calder Memorial Trophy is an annual award given 'to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League.' The winner is selected in a poll of the Professional Hockey Writers Association at the end of the regular season; each voter ranks the top five candidates on a 10-7-5-3-1 points system. Three finalists are named and the trophy is awarded at the NHL Awards after the playoffs."

I understand this can be construed in many ways, but I don't think Calgary making/not making the playoffs puts Wolf in any different voting position. Either way his outstanding play will earn him votes. It does seem like a 3-horse race right now between Celebrini, Hutson and Wolf - and entirely likely those are the 3 finalists unless Michkov goes on a tear.

If that's the case - I'm genuinely curious when the last time a forward, defenseman, and goalie were the top 3 finalists for the Calder? I think it's great there's some variety and a lot of new talent to be excited about in the NHL. Now, let me put on my homer glasses and claim it's Celebrini's to lose!
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There is a difference between leading your team into a surprise playoff spot, verse putting up points in meaningless games. Right or wrong it does influence voters decisions. Look at Halls Hart win for example.
 
JTeller97 said:
A little surprised Hutson isn't considered the clear favorite while leading the rookie scoring race as a defenseman and being a major catalyst for a team vying for a playoff spot well into the season.
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Montreal is as close to being last in their conference as they are to contending for a playoff spot. They only have more points than three other Eastern Conference teams.
 
I have to say, right now you might say Hutson. Still lots to write about with this story, it is far from over. But if a defenseman is among the top 10 in scoring among d-men, and if he is outscoring a forward, that guy will ALWAYS win the Calder. Berard with 48 points to Iginla's 50 in 1997. Iggy outpointed him, but Berard was better that year and more of the story. 48 points as a teenage defenseman was noticeable.

Even in a case of 2003, Barrett Jackman won over Zetterberg despite Zetterberg having double the points. That one you could argue should have been Zetterberg's. Faber was pretty close to Bedard in the voting as well, or at least more than you'd think. I am fine with Bedard winning last year, but a forward definitely has to be outscoring a defenseman in order to even have a shot at winning. Leetch and Linden in 1989 is another good example. Linden needed to outscore him to have a chance. Seider over Zegras in 2022. I guess the best question is when was a defenseman outscoring a forward and did not win the Calder over him?
 
Hutson isnt going to outscore Celebrini. Celebrini missed 12 games and had to catch up, and now has, but his pace is higher. People shouldnt be talking about d-man outscoring a forward but how close Hutson should have to be to have a shot at winning
 
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This thread is exhausting to read. If the season ended today I'd say 1. Wolf 2. Celebrini 3. Hutson 4. Michkov.
 
Another 0 point -2 game for hutson. The whole he isn't challenging for the calder, he is challenging for the norris talk isn't looking to great right now.
 
Rubi said:
How do odds makers set the odds? Where do they get their information?
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Last year was VERY similar...

* The Canadians wanted Bedard - an 18 year old Center.
* The American posters wanted Faber - an older D-Man.

The odds makers said it would be Bedard in a walk and they were right.
 
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Barrie22 said:
Another 0 point -2 game for hutson. The whole he isn't challenging for the calder, he is challenging for the norris talk isn't looking to great right now.
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People weren’t seriously suggesting Hutson was challenging for Norris were they.

Seems as though the reins have been lightened a bit on Michkov. I saw their game against WSH couple nights ago and been back and forth with different games tonight and he seems to cherry pick quite a bit. Philly announcers talk about it, but basically suggest they should just let him go with those instincts, don’t worry too much about own end
 
Rubi said:
It seems to me that unless they are directly polling the Calder trophy voters it's all just speculation.
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This may shock you, but all gambling is speculation on the future.

Odds makers don't just set the line in a vacuum, they also respond to the market. If, for example, a huge number of fans of a particular player bet on them to win, the odds makers will make the odds less favorable so that if all those people are right, they don't lose as much money. At the same time this movement in odds will make other options look better, motivating bets on the other side.
They're more or less trying to reflect the views of the market of bettors at any given time.

Sports books make money on the fact that they don't give people perfect odds and they take a "rake" on the odds. But in general, sports books roughly reflect the entire world's best guess beliefs on a given outcome, without knowing that outcome because it is in the future and therefore unknowable.

So if you think the odds are not giving a fair shake to Hutson, put some money on him. But don't get offended at the odds and don't discount them either.
 
coooldude said:
This may shock you, but all gambling is speculation on the future.

Odds makers don't just set the line in a vacuum, they also respond to the market. If, for example, a huge number of fans of a particular player bet on them to win, the odds makers will make the odds less favorable so that if all those people are right, they don't lose as much money. At the same time this movement in odds will make other options look better, motivating bets on the other side.
They're more or less trying to reflect the views of the market of bettors at any given time.

Sports books make money on the fact that they don't give people perfect odds and they take a "rake" on the odds. But in general, sports books roughly reflect the entire world's best guess beliefs on a given outcome, without knowing that outcome because it is in the future and therefore unknowable.

So if you think the odds are not giving a fair shake to Hutson, put some money on him. But don't get offended at the odds and don't discount them either.
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If the general public voted on the next Calder winner I'd say you're right. Instead there is a very select, small, and generally better informed group doing the voting.
 
Rubi said:
If the general public voted on the next Calder winner I'd say you're right. Instead there is a very select, small, and generally better informed group doing the voting.
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And polls of a subset of voters currently have Celebrini with 60%, Wolf with 25%, and Hutson with 15%. Which, by the way, is not far off from what the odds say, except the odds are more bullish on Hutson, probably because of a lot of Habs fans putting money on him.

Nobody knows what's going to happen, any of the three could win, they're all having great seasons, but voter polls, betting markets, and fan forums (HFB) have Celebrini as most likely and Wolf/Hutson vying for 2.
 
coooldude said:
And polls of a subset of voters currently have Celebrini with 60%, Wolf with 25%, and Hutson with 15%. Which, by the way, is not far off from what the odds say, except the odds are more bullish on Hutson, probably because of a lot of Habs fans putting money on him.

Nobody knows what's going to happen, any of the three could win, they're all having great seasons, but voter polls, betting markets, and fan forums (HFB) have Celebrini as most likely and Wolf/Hutson vying for 2.
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Polls of the general public are meaningless in this particular case. They don't vote. They are about as worthwhile as polls asking who's going to win the cup.
 
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