Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[Pinkfloyd]

Huh no....

Huh yes….

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Parse this to centers rather than forwards and it’s likely a more representative point to make. Being a 1C is typically more difficult than being a 1D both in general and as a rookie.

Centermen and dmen are both difficult positions to start with. Full stop.

Wanna sort it down to centermen? Fine. If Macklin finishes ppg, he'll be around 18th among C rookies. Around 30+ points behind Stastny. If Lane finishes at 60 points, he's top 10 and around 15 points back of the record.

Also add the fact there's around +150% more dmen over centermen in the moderne era (4x Cs per team, 6-7x Ds per team.

Also add the fact 60 points by a rookie hasn't been done by a dman since Lidstrom, so 30+ years, whereas Barzal did 85 recently and Crosby did 100+ 20 years ago.

So there's more historical significance for Hutson.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Centermen and dmen are both difficult positions to start with. Full stop.

Wanna sort it down to centermen? Fine. If Macklin finishes ppg, he'll be around 18th among C rookies. Around 30+ points behind Stastny. If Lane finishes at 60 points, he's top 10 and around 15 points back of the record.

Compared to who and when? You want to make this point or not?

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Compared to who and when? You want to make this point or not?

Hutson is being used as a #1D. He has no Brodin to fall back on. No Tanev to help him raise his +/-. Highest 5v5 TOI on the Habs, highest 5v5 +/- on the Habs D. Historically, there are more centermen who take over #1C in their rookie season than there are dmen, despite being around 2/3 in numbers.

 

[coooldude]

He’s using the article to back up his opinion that Celebrini is the overwhelming calder favourite

That same article says that the race is strictly michkov vs celebrini.

The article says that 90% of voters asked for the article are leaning Celebrini.

Do you think it’s a two horse race between michkov and celebrini? If not, how can you consider anything in this article relevant?

Yes, I personally think that, although Hutson is making it more of a three horse race.

I think the article/opinions are a bit dated, probably a month old and not accurate

The article was published today and says this about Hutson. Very complimentary especially in comparison to other Rookie D men. It's missing 3 points since he's at 30 now, as far as I understand.

"Hutson has 27 points in 39 games while skating 22:34 per game for the Canadiens. To put into perspective how much Hutson has lapped the field among rookie defensemen: The next highest scoring rookie defenseman, Nolan Allen of Chicago, is 21 points behind.

The Canadiens defenseman is a minus-8, fourth worst on the Habs for players with at least 15 games played. That's with Montreal having sheltered him with 63% of this zone starts coming in the offensive zone."

I think it's objective and fair to say that Hutson is having an amazing season, is a candidate for the Calder, but is not in the lead in the eyes of the voters as far as anyone can tell today. Here's the new Vegas line. As those following along will see, the line moves pretty quickly. Since the last time I posted this, Celebrini's odds are stronger but Hutson has leapfrogged Michkov.

 

[Frank Drebin]

The article says that 90% of voters asked for the article are leaning Celebrini.

Yes, I personally think that, although Hutson is making it more of a three horse race.

The article was published today and says this about Hutson. Very complimentary especially in comparison to other Rookie D men. It's missing 3 points since he's at 30 now, as far as I understand.


I think it's objective and fair to say that Hutson is having an amazing season, is a candidate for the Calder, but is not in the lead in the eyes of the voters as far as anyone can tell today. Here's the new Vegas line. As those following along will see, the line moves pretty quickly. Since the last time I posted this, Celebrini's odds are stronger but Hutson has leapfrogged Michkov.
View attachment 957658

the stats are accurate and easy to update
The opinions are not. They are old and not accurate

No way Michkov is ahead of Hutson at this point in time and whatever gap celebrini had was closed considerably

 

[coooldude]

No way Michkov is ahead of Hutson at this point in time and whatever gap celebrini had was closed considerably

If you looked at the Vegas lines, you are half right but half wrong.

• Hutson is currently in 2nd ahead of Michkov
• The gap between Hutson and Celebrini has closed, BUT, Celebrini's odds to win overall have increased.

Therefore, it's kind of true but also kind of misleading that "whatever gap Celebrini had was closed considerably."

I'm not declaring Celebrini the victor so don't strawman me, I'm simply stating that voter evidence and betting odds point toward Celebrini being the "clear" favorite right now with an entire half season left to play. Anything can happen and probably will.

 

[Frank Drebin]

If you looked at the Vegas lines, you are half right but half wrong.

• Hutson is currently in 2nd ahead of Michkov
• The gap between Hutson and Celebrini has closed, BUT, Celebrini's odds to win overall have increased.

Therefore, it's kind of true but also kind of misleading that "whatever gap Celebrini had was closed considerably."

I'm not declaring Celebrini the victor so don't strawman me, I'm simply stating that voter evidence and betting odds point toward Celebrini being the "clear" favorite right now with an entire half season left to play. Anything can happen and probably will.

I don’t know how to read odds
It looks like $10 on hutson wins you $32
While $10 on celebrini wins you $14.30

I don’t know if that is 90% likely or not.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Hutson is being used as a #1D. He has no Brodin to fall back on. No Tanev to help him raise his +/-. Highest 5v5 TOI on the Habs, highest 5v5 +/- on the Habs D. Historically, there are more centermen who take over #1C in their rookie season than there are dmen, despite being around 2/3 in numbers.

This point will always ring hollow when comparing him to Celebrini. Lane is 20 and Mack is 18. Kane’s most used teammates are Matheson, Suzuki, Caufield, and Newhook. Celebrini’s is Toffoli and Zetterlund as wingers and Ceci and Ferraro as defensemen. Lane is in a better position when it comes to who to lean on.

 

[karltonian]

If you looked at the Vegas lines, you are half right but half wrong.

• Hutson is currently in 2nd ahead of Michkov
• The gap between Hutson and Celebrini has closed, BUT, Celebrini's odds to win overall have increased.

Therefore, it's kind of true but also kind of misleading that "whatever gap Celebrini had was closed considerably."

I'm not declaring Celebrini the victor so don't strawman me, I'm simply stating that voter evidence and betting odds point toward Celebrini being the "clear" favorite right now with an entire half season left to play. Anything can happen and probably will.

Make sense given the historic preference of forwards over D, and the competing forward dropping.

 

[JustAHabFan]

The article says that 90% of voters asked for the article are leaning Celebrini.

Yes, I personally think that, although Hutson is making it more of a three horse race.

The article was published today and says this about Hutson. Very complimentary especially in comparison to other Rookie D men. It's missing 3 points since he's at 30 now, as far as I understand.


I think it's objective and fair to say that Hutson is having an amazing season, is a candidate for the Calder, but is not in the lead in the eyes of the voters as far as anyone can tell today. Here's the new Vegas line. As those following along will see, the line moves pretty quickly. Since the last time I posted this, Celebrini's odds are stronger but Hutson has leapfrogged Michkov.
View attachment 957658

Right now, Hutson has leapfroged Mitchkov. By season end, he will win the Calder. Hutson used to be 12:1 to win the Calder. Then it get to 7:1 and now it's 4:1. Soon it will be 1:1.

 

[coooldude]

I don’t know how to read odds
It looks like $10 on hutson wins you $32
While $10 on celebrini wins you $14.30

I don’t know if that is 90% likely or not.

I didn't say it was 90% likely that Celebrini wins the Calder. I said that 90% of the voters in the article said they were leaning Celebrini. Those things are very different.

Here's an odds to probabilities calculator. It's not perfect since the sports books take fees, but:

• -200 implies a 66.7% chance Celebrini wins, he's ranging -200 to -240
• +350 implies a 22.2% chance Hutson wins, he's ranging +350 to +260, aka the top estimate is 27.8%
• +450 for Michkov = 18.2% chance

Before Celebrini came back from injury, he was +800 and Michkov was -300 or higher, I can't exactly remember, but just a few weeks ago Hutson was +1000 or higher, so the line moves quickly as the fans bet on the outcome.

Right now, Hutson has leapfroged Mitchkov. By season end, he will win the Calder. Hutson used to be 12:1 to win the Calder. Then it get to 7:1 and now it's 4:1. Soon it will be 1:1.

If my newborn baby keeps growing at this rate, they'll be 1,000 pounds and 67 feet tall by the time they're 8 years old.

It's a close race. Nobody knows the future. If you do, sell your house and put it all on Hutson at +400. If you don't sell your house and put it all on Hutson, maybe just enjoy the fun instead of being overconfident.

The same goes for Celebrini and Michkov stans. Anything can and will happen.

 

[JustAHabFan]

I didn't say it was 90% likely that Celebrini wins the Calder. I said that 90% of the voters in the article said they were leaning Celebrini. Those things are very different.

Here's an odds to probabilities calculator. It's not perfect since the sports books take fees, but:

• -200 implies a 66.7% chance Celebrini wins, he's ranging -200 to -240
• +350 implies a 22.2% chance Hutson wins, he's ranging +350 to +260, aka the top estimate is 27.8%
• +450 for Michkov = 18.2% chance

Before Celebrini came back from injury, he was +800 and Michkov was -300 or higher, I can't exactly remember, but just a few weeks ago Hutson was +1000 or higher, so the line moves quickly as the fans bet on the outcome.


If my newborn baby keeps growing at this rate, they'll be 1,000 pounds and 67 feet tall by the time they're 8 years old.

It's a close race. Nobody knows the future. If you do, sell your house and put it all on Hutson at +400. If you don't sell your house and put it all on Hutson, maybe just enjoy the fun instead of being overconfident.

The same goes for Celebrini and Michkov stans. Anything can and will happen.

A lot of Celebrini's fans showed confident that Celebrini will win the Calder. But deep down, you guys are very scared about the meteoric raise of Hutson. The Habs are playing better and better and Hutson will continue to get more points. When points gap between Hutson and Celebrini growed larger, these voters will not have any choice but voting for Hutson.

 

[TheBuriedHab]

For Hutson to win over Celebrini, he has to finish with above 60 points, his +/- needs to be around even and the Habs have to make the playoffs. I think all 3 of those things have to happen to realistically sway popular opinion.

Celebrini is just such a gifted player, basically 0 flaws in his game, you need a monumental season to beat him out. Right now Celebrini 1, Hutson 2 for me.

 

[wetcoast]

He’s using the article to back up his opinion that Celebrini is the overwhelming calder favourite

That same article says that the race is strictly michkov vs celebrini.


So if you’re going to appeal to authority, do you just pick and choose what parts you agree with?

Do you think it’s a two horse race between michkov and celebrini? If not, how can you consider anything in this article relevant?

I think the article/opinions are a bit dated, probably a month old and not accurate

All you have to do is read back in this thread as I've had Hutson second for quite a while now and Celebrini head by quite a bit and I've stated my reasons why?

The "appealing to authority" is a lame coping mechanism.

 

[JustAHabFan]

For Hutson to win over Celebrini, he has to finish with above 60 points, his +/- needs to be around even and the Habs have to make the playoffs. I think all 3 of those things have to happen to realistically sway popular opinion.

Celebrini is just such a gifted player, basically 0 flaws in his game, you need a monumental season to beat him out. Right now Celebrini 1, Hutson 2 for me.

This agreed. But the gap is not that big and the Habs and Hutson are trending on the right direction.

 

[coooldude]

A lot of Celebrini's fans showed confident that Celebrini will win the Calder. But deep down, you guys are very scared about the meteoric raise of Hutson. The Habs are playing better and better and Hutson will continue to get more points. When points gap between Hutson and Celebrini growed larger, these voters will not have any choice but voting for Hutson.

Oh, you know me personally?

If Hutson wins the Calder, I will say "cool for him," and be happy with Celebrini's season and his future in teal. I absolutely do not care enough to be "very scared" of anything in hockey. We're a dogshit team in a multi-year rebuild, that's all that matters.

On the other hand, if Celebrini wins, it seems like you might be really personally offended and spend the summer arguing why the voters are so dumb to not have seen Hutson's brilliance, and it will hurt you emotionally. If I'm wrong about you, OK, but maybe don't speculate on what's happening "deep down" about a stranger's "very scared" feelings.

As the habs fan right above this post said well (TheBuriedHab), Hutson has a shot if he scores 60 and the Habs make the playoffs and he improves defensively. But he's currently still in 2nd for now. And either way it doesn't matter that much. Calder race is fun and interesting but not worth getting emotional over.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Oh, you know me personally?

If Hutson wins the Calder, I will say "cool for him," and be happy with Celebrini's season and his future in teal. I absolutely do not care enough to be "very scared" of anything in hockey. We're a dogshit team in a multi-year rebuild, that's all that matters.

On the other hand, if Celebrini wins, it seems like you might be really personally offended and spend the summer arguing why the voters are so dumb to not have seen Hutson's brilliance, and it will hurt you emotionally. If I'm wrong about you, OK, but maybe don't speculate on what's happening "deep down" about a stranger's "very scared" feelings.

As the habs fan right above this post said well (TheBuriedHab), Hutson has a shot if he scores 60 and the Habs make the playoffs and he improves defensively. But he's currently still in 2nd for now. And either way it doesn't matter that much. Calder race is fun and interesting but not worth getting emotional over.

I agreed with you that Calder is up for grab. What annoyed me there were Celebrini's fans who kept saying Celebrini is locked to win the Calder.

 

[Frank Drebin]

All you have to do is read back in this thread as I've had Hutson second for quite a while now and Celebrini head by quite a bit and I've stated my reasons why?

The "appealing to authority" is a lame coping mechanism.

“Here’s an article that backs up my opinions, just ignore the part i don’t agree withwith”

 

[Jabba11]

Since we’re on the topic, I knew why Celebrini had a despicable face too. Reminds me of this guy

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I agreed with you that Calder is up for grab. What annoyed me there were Celebrini's fans who kept saying Celebrini is locked to win the Calder.

He's no lock. If Hutson reaches 60 points, it will be talked about and will raise his stock. Same if the Habs make the playoffs with Hutson playing the most 5v5 minutes and getting the highest 5v5 +/- among habs Ds.

All narratives have plenty of time to change.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

“Here’s an article that backs up my opinions, just ignore the part i don’t agree withwith”

That article shows results from the people who at the end of the season will decide the trophy. It's not like it's some irrelevant link.

No one has said Celebrini has already won or will win the trophy. Just that right now...from betting odds, and the opinions of the actual award voters (not personal opinion) Celebrini is the favourite.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

I agreed with you that Calder is up for grab. What annoyed me there were Celebrini's fans who kept saying Celebrini is locked to win the Calder.

Ironically you're calling people out for what annoys you, but you're the one claiming betting odds will become 1:1 for Hutson to win and that we're scared of Hutson's meteoric rise and voters won't have a choice but to vote for him.

And the guy you said that to literally said it was a close raise and any of the 3 (Celebrini, Michkov, Hutson) can rise or fall.

 

[Frank Drebin]

That article shows results from the people who at the end of the season will decide the trophy. It's not like it's some irrelevant link.

No one has said Celebrini has already won or will win the trophy. Just that right now...from betting odds, and the opinions of the actual award voters (not personal opinion) Celebrini is the favourite.

It’s outdated information

 

[Stewie Griffin]

It’s outdated information

It was posted 7 hours ago. It's missed one game's worth of stats.