Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[danisonfire]

Maybe it's bad luck, like with EK65 in his last Norris yer but one would think that he might have a better ratio if he really was that much of a difference maker?

It's also hard to say how many voters will be traditional, ie counting stats versus how many look at advanced stats as well.

It is moreso to do with Montreal being at the bottom of the standings and Lane Hutson being the first person on the ice when we are trying to get a goal with our net empty. If they took EN situations out of the equation it would be a little bit better but as is the stat can be very misleading. It also heavily punishes players on bottom tier teams.

Montreal has pulled the goalie many times this year (losing games) and haven't scored many EN goals for (protecting a lead). He won't be on the ice at this point when we are protecting a one goal lead (That is usually Suzuki and Evans who are #1 and #2 on the team in +/-). If he gets 60 points this year (big if), I don't see +/- being the reason he loses with all things considered.

Say he finishes 2 points behind the first place forward, would you use his +/- as the reason to disqualify him with all those EN goals against (#1 in NHL for this)?

Why are the forwards not punished for finishing so close in points to a defender in the same hypothetical? Now if Celebrini is +18 (bottom tier team) in the same hypothetical, it might be considered and should be.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

For being a montreal canadien player, hutson fans aren't overyly crazy like philly fans are when it comes to michkov.

I won’t go there.

What I will say is that he’s a legit contender for this award and if the award were given now, I’d give it to him. Two points off the lead and a blueliner? That’s amazing stuff.

Like I said at the beginning of this thread. Great year for rookies. Looking forward to watching this race and I hope Dustin Wolf can push his way back in. What a crop of players.

 

[Bouboumaster]

He could well be the favourite right now. He’s been awesome and his production is actually accelerating.

I still have Celebrini at #1 but I'm all for Hutson winning it all

What a glorious player, so much talent and potential in him

 

[Andrei79]

Funny how us shark fans were told we only come out when Celebrini is doing good and go into hiding when he isn't (only time that has happened is when he was out injured).

But as soon as michkov goes very very cold his supporters are all of a sudden no where to be found.

Celebrini is incredible. It's not a great contribution to this thread, but an 18 year old has no business being this well rounded.

 

[General Fanager]

Not if he continues to be the worst rookie in plus/minus. Might be silly but a rookie defensemen that is on pace for -35 will be criticized harder then a forward that is on pace for the same -35.

EK won the Norris with a -26

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I still have Celebrini at #1 but I'm all for Hutson winning it all

What a glorious player, so much talent and potential in him

I’m fine with any of those players winning it. If I were to give it today? I’d give it to Hutson. But that’s largely because Mich had fallen off a bit. If you’d asked me five games ago I’d have said Mich.

Lots of hockey still to be played.

 

[Barrie22]

EK won the Norris with a -26

While being 25 points clear of any other defensemen in points. And the only 1 to be truly point per game.

 

[danisonfire]

While being 25 points clear of any other defensemen in points. And the only 1 to be truly point per game.

He also had 26 points in his rookie season.

Hutson has 25 points before Christmas. He is -14 with -8 of that being with the net empty. I don't think it matters as much as you think. Celebrini is -6 on the season and he looks great defensively. Such is life on a bottom tier team.

 

[wetcoast]

He could well be the favourite right now. He’s been awesome and his production is actually accelerating.

Sure the last 3 games have been against the Dead Wings and SC playoff pretenders Buffalo....just saying.

 

[Fraser28]

My own ranking would be (as of today):
1) Celebrini
-> very small gap
2) Hutson
—> Slightly larger gap
3) Michkov

All 3 are incredible players.

 

[danisonfire]

My own ranking would be (as of today):
1) Celebrini
-> very small gap
2) Hutson
—> Slightly larger gap
3) Michkov

This is how I would currently rank them. All three are going to be superstars.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Sure the last 3 games have been against the Dead Wings and SC playoff pretenders Buffalo....just saying.

Sure. And Laine's not going to shoot 100 percent on the PP. And Michkov isn't going to go 0 for the rest of the season. Right now is a snapshot in time. Just like it was in the first month, the second... Mich has led the whole way but now I'd say it's Hutson. Ask me in two weeks and it might be somebody else.

I said it would be a tight race and it is. Any one of those guys could win and somebody like Dustin Wolf could get hot. There's a lot of talent this year. Anyone who thinks this guy or that guy has it sewn up is wrong. I think it's going to be a tight race, exactly what you want to see.

 

[wetcoast]

It is moreso to do with Montreal being at the bottom of the standings and Lane Hutson being the first person on the ice when we are trying to get a goal with our net empty. If they took EN situations out of the equation it would be a little bit better but as is the stat can be very misleading. It also heavily punishes players on bottom tier teams.

Montreal has pulled the goalie many times this year (losing games) and haven't scored many EN goals for (protecting a lead). He won't be on the ice at this point when we are protecting a one goal lead (That is usually Suzuki and Evans who are #1 and #2 on the team in +/-). If he gets 60 points this year (big if), I don't see +/- being the reason he loses with all things considered.

Say he finishes 2 points behind the first place forward, would you use his +/- as the reason to disqualify him with all those EN goals against (#1 in NHL for this)?

Why are the forwards not punished for finishing so close in points to a defender in the same hypothetical? Now if Celebrini is +18 (bottom tier team) in the same hypothetical, it might be considered and should be.

I would never just look at +/- but usage and how much each player controls the play when on the ice.

That's why right now I'm projecting Celebrini for the Calder if the season ended right now.

Voters also saw Faber last year who scored at a pretty good rate and he was behind Bedard in Calder voting and he was better defensivley and played a more important role ofr the Wild than Hutson is playing this year.

Also for those referencing Lidstrom and his 60 points, he lost to Pavel Bure that year who only had 65 points.

All that being said there are roughly 45 games left for all players in the race and a lot can happen.

 

[danisonfire]

I would never just look at +/- but usage and how much each player controls the play when on the ice.

That's why right now I'm projecting Celebrini for the Calder if the season ended right now.

Voters also saw Faber last year who scored at a pretty good rate and he was behind Bedard in Calder voting and he was better defensivley and played a more important role ofr the Wild than Hutson is playing this year.

Also for those referencing Lidstrom and his 60 points, he lost to Pavel Bure that year who only had 65 points.

All that being said there are roughly 45 games left for all players in the race and a lot can happen.

I have Celebrini ahead right now for the award but it is pretty interchangeable. If it was the most complete rookie award it would be Celebrini, Celebrini and Celebrini.

Bure had all the flash helping him and Faber was an inside job. He should have won with how the season played out. The award is all over the place for sure. Bedard had the hype factor on his side.

If Hutson beats the record for rookie D the hype alone could carry him to the award. It is a popularity contest (Russian Rocket) and hype can go a long way. Celebrini needs to pull away in points and stay healthy and I think he will win it. This rookie group at the top is really strong this season.

 

[Star Platinum]

For being a montreal canadien player, hutson fans aren't overyly crazy like philly fans are when it comes to michkov.

Most of them aren't Philly fans. I think they're mostly Russia player fans.

 

[coooldude]

DraftKings odds as of today:
Michkov -135
Celebrini +100
Hutson +1200
Wolf +4000

Public line might be a little behind, but it's still Michkov as of today.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Celebrini/Mitchkov/Hutson, whoever finish the rest of the season strong will win the Calder. They are pretty much at the starting point right now.

 

[one2gamble]

This is getting spicy

 

[Jurivan Demidovsky]

Hutson.

 

[Tw1ster]

Celebrini.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

He might finish 3rd but right now Celebrini has been on the fast track to be the frontrunner and I doubt Michkov stays in this funk much longer.

If Celebrini keeps up his strong 200 foot game he might start pulling away with it in the new year.

Right or wrong some voters are going to look at Hutson and his -14.

Frankly I'm not sure who I would put 4rd right now, could be Wolf but if he ends up playing in only 40ish games I dunno.

It's a 3 man race and Hutson isn't #3

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

It's a 3 man race and Hutson isn't #3

The guy with 25 points in 33 games as a defenseman isn't #3? Guess he must be #1 or #2 then.

 

[The411]

It is moreso to do with Montreal being at the bottom of the standings and Lane Hutson being the first person on the ice when we are trying to get a goal with our net empty. If they took EN situations out of the equation it would be a little bit better but as is the stat can be very misleading. It also heavily punishes players on bottom tier teams.

Montreal has pulled the goalie many times this year (losing games) and haven't scored many EN goals for (protecting a lead). He won't be on the ice at this point when we are protecting a one goal lead (That is usually Suzuki and Evans who are #1 and #2 on the team in +/-). If he gets 60 points this year (big if), I don't see +/- being the reason he loses with all things considered.

Say he finishes 2 points behind the first place forward, would you use his +/- as the reason to disqualify him with all those EN goals against (#1 in NHL for this)?

Why are the forwards not punished for finishing so close in points to a defender in the same hypothetical? Now if Celebrini is +18 (bottom tier team) in the same hypothetical, it might be considered and should be.

Because Celebrini’s CF Rel% and FF Rel% are outrageous. They’re similar to McDavid, Kucherov, Kaprizov, and Makar

 

[Fraser28]

DraftKings odds as of today:
Michkov -135
Celebrini +100
Hutson +1200
Wolf +4000

Public line might be a little behind, but it's still Michkov as of today.

That will certainly change.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

The guy with 25 points in 33 games as a defenseman isn't #3? Guess he must be #1 or #2 then.

Exactly my point