Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hutson currently is on pace for 55 pts while Michkov is pacing for 80 . He’d really need to go on an extended slump for the numbers to be close imo . He seems to just be settling in so I’m not sure it’s a super accurate launching point. If you told me Michkov was going to get 60 ish points as a rookie at the beginning of the year id have been satisfied but the bar has been raised somewhat . Maybe not ppg but 70 something seems doable. 60 pt finish for Michkov would impure a pace of 33 pts over the remaining 53 games ; seems light ( roughly 51 pt pace )

I have Michkov at 68 in 80gp (70 point pace). He's running really hot, especially lately. He's shooting over 21%, and the Flyers have scored 36 goals with him on the ice vs 27 expected goals. (during his current 5 game scoring streak, they Flyers are shooting nearly 26% when he's on the ice lol). If you adjust for this a bit, he'd probably be at a 60-65 pace right now instead of 82. Use that pace for his final 53 games and it puts him right around 68 points.

On the flip side, Hutson's been a bit cooler. He's also recently won the PP1 role from Matheson, so I think we'll see him score at a higher pace than we've seen to finish the year.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

I have Michkov at 68 in 80gp (70 point pace). He's running really hot, especially lately. He's shooting over 21%, and the Flyers have scored 36 goals with him on the ice vs 27 expected goals. (during his current 5 game scoring streak, they Flyers are shooting nearly 26% when he's on the ice lol). If you adjust for this a bit, he'd probably be at a 60-65 pace right now instead of 82. Use that pace for his final 53 games and it puts him right around 68 points.

On the flip side, Hutson's been a bit cooler. He's also recently won the PP1 role from Matheson, so I think we'll see him score at a higher pace than we've seen to finish the year.

My mistake; I looked quickly and saw 60. So 41 pts in 55 games( remaining ); still a bit light but the numbers seem more realistic than I characterized them .

 

[theVladiator]

I wonder who would a win Calder with the following hypothetical stats:

Michkov 80gp 27g 68p +2
Hutson 82gp 5g 61p -25
Celebrini 70gp 26g 58p -16
Stankoven 80gp 21g 57p +12

the +/- factor could be a bit of a tie breaker for voters, but then there's Celebrini who has that 1OA shine, and could steal some of the "forward" votes from Michkov (that's how Ekblad won it in 2014).

With those totals it's a tossup IMO. Michkov points are higher, and Hutson's goals are meh, but D points are worth more. Lots of back and forth secondary factors too. Michkov has better +/-, but Hutson is playing in a market with a heavier press presence. I guess Michkov is also younger, and seems to have revived some of the old Bedard/Michkov hype. No clear hypothetical winner there.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

My mistake; I looked quickly and saw 60. So 41 pts in 55 games( remaining ); still a bit light but the numbers seem more realistic than I characterized them .

The Flyers have only 53gp remaining. His pace before this 5 game heater was exactly 41 in those 53

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

The Flyers have only 53gp remaining. His pace before this 5 game heater was exactly 41 in those 53

Gonna chalk this up overall as a math fail on my part . I even said 53 in my prior post . I’ll take a stab at 74 as my guess for Michkov

 

[Eklund72]

Celebrini with another absolute snipe. 2g 1A through two periods

 

[Star Platinum]

Celebrini is a mensch. 200 foot player with 2 goals and 1 assist through two periods.

 

[SjMilhouse]

Celebrini with another absolute snipe. 2g 1A through two periods

All while continuing to play an incredible 200 foot game as an 18 year old.

 

[one2gamble]

All while continuing to play an incredible 200 foot game as an 18 year old.

Yes but he's on the first line in regulation, doesn't count

 

[karltonian]

celebrini didn't hear no bell

 

[zombie kopitar]

Mack also is a little nasty, he is not even remotely getting bullied around considering his age/frame. He actually looks like a kid out of the uniform and all that, but skating on the ice he just has so much power in his stride , dude is a prize horse

 

[ORRFForever]

I don't know, my friend. MM is now PPG on a better team. Let's see if MC can catch up.

Celebrini had 2 Goals and an Assist tonight.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Hutson currently is on pace for 55 pts while Michkov is pacing for 80 . He’d really need to go on an extended slump for the numbers to be close imo . He seems to just be settling in so I’m not sure it’s a super accurate launching point. If you told me Michkov was going to get 60 ish points as a rookie at the beginning of the year id have been satisfied but the bar has been raised somewhat . Maybe not ppg but 70 something seems doable. 60 pt finish for Michkov would impure a pace of 33 pts over the remaining 53 games ; seems light ( roughly 51 pt pace )

I'm not sure about the Flyers but the Canadiens will be consistently inconsistent this year. Some nights they'll look great and others will get crushed. They're a rebuilding team trying to transition to a good one. This is definitely a transition year and they'll probably wind up with a top ten pick.

How will that effect Hutson? I think he's already made tons of plays that a better club could've capitalized on. I also think the addition of Laine should help drive some points for him. It's going to be an up and down year. I'd predict 50-60 points. Pretty good for a guy on a not so great team. As for Michkov, 80 points with a good mix of goals and assists is probably good for the Calder. That would be an incredible year.

 

[Fraser28]

Funny how the obnoxious Flyers fan who keeps saying that Michkov is a tier above (clearly nonsense) isn’t posting when Celebrini gets 3 points to Michkov’s zero.

They’re both special players and are having very comparatively amazing rookie seasons.

 

[Saskatoon]

Funny how the obnoxious Flyers fan who keeps saying that Michkov is a tier above (clearly nonsense) isn’t posting when Celebrini gets 3 points to Michkov’s zero.

They’re both special players and are having very comparatively amazing rookie seasons.

It's almost like both players are good

 

[PattyLafontaine]

 

[Fraser28]

It's almost like both players are good

Exactly. That’s what most people have been saying all along. But some people (mostly one or two Michkov fans) insist on acting like he’s the best by a mile.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Celebrini's your Calder winner if he stays healthy. He's the best rookie this year.

 

[karltonian]

Celebrini's your Calder winner if he stays healthy. He's the best rookie this year.

And that's not taking anything away from michkov either.

 

[HeadLiceHatty]

Funny how the obnoxious Flyers fan who keeps saying that Michkov is a tier above (clearly nonsense) isn’t posting when Celebrini gets 3 points to Michkov’s zero.

They’re both special players and are having very comparatively amazing rookie seasons.

You guys go completely radio silent while Michkov is on a heater and Celebrini got caved for 2-3 games straight, it’s hilarious. He’s still superior offensively, those are facts. Doesn’t mean Celebrini isn’t a great young player.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

And that's not taking anything away from michkov either.

Except the Calder ?

 

[Canucks LB]

As an outsider watching this, really nice rookie class this year with Celebrini, Michkov and Hutson

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

As an outsider watching this, really nice rookie class this year with Celebrini, Michkov and Hutson

Wolf had a couple of rough games. It's really hard to maintain those numbers. If you have a few rough games it skews everything.

That being said, he's had a wonderful season as well. Still lots of time for him to go back to what he was doing.

 

[Tw1ster]

You guys go completely radio silent while Michkov is on a heater and Celebrini got caved for 2-3 games straight, it’s hilarious. He’s still superior offensively, those are facts. Doesn’t mean Celebrini isn’t a great young player.

Not that I really care to get involved in this stupid argument of who’s better, but how can you say Matvei is superior offensively as fact when they’re on identical paces so far, while Celebrini is doing most of his work at even strength? Legit question, just doesn’t make much sense to state that as facts

 

[olli]

Pretty sure with out his KHl contract, he goes second overall in the draft.

If this was the main issue and it wasn’t alsa a possible character issue like I had heard at the time then 5 teams potentially fumbled so hard. Obviously there was the potential that he stayed in the khl until he was 23 or whenever his contract was set to expire but what high end guys on his level have actually stayed in the khl their entire careers. I don’t understand why gms keep making the mistake of passing up on Russian forwards over and over again. I remember hearing about the 2023 draft as “Bedard and Michkov then everyone else” in 2022.