Epic Calder Race 2024-25

[Appleyard]

Wolf is 8th in Sv% and 16th in GAA (min 20 games played). Not understanding how you get top 5-6 or that he has been outstanding amongst his peers using those lenses.

The notion of judging players by whether they are top ~20 at their position is pointless because NHL teams don’t have the same number of goalies as F or D. The sensible way to compare them would be to rank the players against their peers. For Wolf, his sv% and GAA are 85th and 69th percentile, respectively, relative to peers (min 20 games played). Hutson is 96th percentile in PGP for D and Celebrini’s PGP is 88th percentile among F, both more impressive by comparison.

GAA is a team stat more than a goalie stat.

Look at his dfsv%... GSAX...

 

[Prairie Habs]

sure some did but I bet you many Habs fans posting here didn't right?

In Decmeber when Laine came back the teams fortunes changed dramtically.

Huston has been good but don't undersell the rest of the team and how they have played here.

Here is the statistical breakdwn since Laine's return and yes hutson has been vert good but it's been a team effort.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

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the Habs goaltending has also been better since then.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

So are you saying that the opinions of some Habs fans on this board should be given more weight than the league-wide consensus? If so, why are you being so obstinate on this issue?

Laine joining the team and giving us some secondary scoring definitely did help a lot. Want to know the fun fact on that? Hutson has assisted on 79% of Laine's goals this season (11 out of 14).

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

How is this pointing out an error? Barzal's rookie season place him tied for 3rd in rookie points and 5th in PPG over the past 20 years. Celebrini will not come close to either of these.


Hutson's stat line is incredible, no arguments from me.


To you age may be inconsequential, but I suspect to some of the voters it will play a factor. Perhaps I am wrong with that assessment

It won't be as much a factor as reaching several milestones that haven't been reached in 30 years, including a possible record (rookie D assists. He needs 16 in his last 21 games to tie the record.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

The poster claimed he was "literally breaking records right now."

He is not.

The rookie assist record is 60... he's got work to do to get there. Chelios posted 64 points as a rookie... that would also require a very strong finish.

He's having a tremendous season, but he hasn't broken any records right now, literally or figuratively, and claiming that he is only adds hyperbole to a thread filled with it.

He has 33 assists in his last 40 games, and needs 16 in his last 21 to do it. It's very doable. He's also 13 away from tying the ES points record (while getting none from EN).

 

[Karma Police]

I was gonna comment saying team records aren't 'real' records... and they kinda aren't - but the Habs have been around so long that it certainly has more merit than a Vegas record (for example).

This would be my ballot as of today:
1. Hudson
2. Celebrini
3. Michkov
4. Wolf
5. Bolduc

I would switch Wolf with Michkov as I feel he is more valuable to his team than Michkov right now, but good list nonetheless

 

[wetcoast]

you 100% nithpicked his ES time in ONE GAME to try to dismiss him and fill your void. This is pointing stat without context.

I'm pointing out the narrative of the Habs being a playoff contending team being all on Hudson as false.

Matheson has been playing huge MPG in all situations all season and evens till the turnaround which happened with Laine coming back.

Hutson is the one who play the most at 5v5 this year for the habs on D

I know that he has the most ES MPG on the Habs but that includes 3 on 3 and there is less than 1 MPG separation in ES TOI among the Habs top 4 Dman.

He very well might be 5 on 5 as well I don't know the actual stats as they haven't been presented.

It's also not just one game but has been a trend since the 4 nations break.

I could post the actual games here but it seems the vocal minority of habs fans will then move the goalposts somewhere else but Hutson objectively isn't the main guy or reason they are close to a playoff spot, he is part of a larger group of guys.

If you want to counter go back and look at the games post break the information is out there.

In the example I gave about a damn carrying his team to a playoff spot, Hughes, his ES TOI is well over 3 MPG more than the 4th Canucks Dman and a full 90 seconds more than the #2 guy on the Canucks so my point is that the assertion simply doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Look there is nothing wrong with this Hughes is the reigning Norris trophy winner and was the leader for that trophy this year again before his injury woes.

Hutson is having a great rookie year but he isn't anywhere near a Hughes leading his team.

 

[wetcoast]

What a strange comment considering he's first in ES ice time on the team. The reason why he wasn't that particular game, if you cared to inform yourself, is because he played on the right side, baby sitting Struble. Hutson has been the driver for this team during the push along with Suzuki. Just a brutal post.

See my previous post since the break as I cover some of that there and thanks for helping informing me but the last Habs guy that wanted to do that instead went back and put up lol emojis on posts from last summer and 2.5 years ago, just not the type of people I trust for information.

And look, if the points keep coming most voters won't care about how the ice time breakdowns are so just take the win on that but don't conflate it with Hutson carrying the team which was the original point I was referring back to.

 

[wetcoast]

64goalies

192 defensemen
384 forwards
a top 10 goalie is the same as a top 30 dman or top 60 F. Both of which Hutson/Celebrini are.

It doesn't really work that way because you are relying on stats here which doesn't translate across all 3 groups the same..

All goalies and smot forwards can be quantified in their importance on comparable stats, Dmen less so.

Either way Hutson isn't a top 30 Dman and Celebrini isn't a top 60 forward.

 

[wetcoast]

The reason is because the habs doesn't have a 2nd line and is missing a top 4 RHD. The fact the team is almost in a playoffs spot with a 2nd line made of Laine-Dach-Newhook is kind of crazy. The 2nd center who took the most faceoffs on the team is Jake Evans let that sink in for a few beers.

He's the stats for the CH since mid december 15th (last 31 games) :

Suzuki 35 points +5 (tied 10th in NHL with Crosby and Teravainen)
Caufield 28 points +1
Hutson 28 points -1 (4th among NHL dmen)
Laine 20 points -6
Slafkovsky 20 points +3
Newhook 15 points -2
Dach 13 points -8
Evans 13 points +5

As you can see after Suzuki, Caufield, Hutson, Laine and Slaf there's no much offensive production there. Bunch of guys who work hard (some with terrible contracts) and play well but not much production anyway certainly not enough for a 2nd line.

This sounds great but I looked at the Habs from the previous list from Dec 3rd till now and they have 10 players with more than 10 ESP in the time frame, Florida which I picked at random had 9.

Aslo my counterpoint to the exaggeration of that poster has been pretty consistent, the turnaround for the Habs from early December has been a group effort and Suzuki if anything has been the guy who is leading the team.

 

[wetcoast]

Hutsons season is more impressive than Lidstroms rookie season. Now lets all remember Lidstrom didn't win his first Norris trophy till he was 31 so not comparing the players.

Was it though really, have you done a deep dive?

The Red wings with Lidstrom went from 76 points, 9th in GF and 17th in GA to 98 points and 4th in GF and 6th in GA.

Sure there were some other player changes but Lindstrom's rookie season is getting the short end of the stick here.

91-92 Red wings scored 320 goals in 80 games and finished with 98 points
21 year old Lidstrom was 6th on the team in scoring with 60 points.

24-25 habs pacing for 247 goals in 82 games pacing for 87 points in a 3 point season.

Hutson 3rd on the team in scoring, pacing for 65 points in 82 games

But lets not forget the covid shortened season where Makar paced for 72 points and Hughes paced for 64

Either way Hutson is competing against this class so using a misguided points only look at Lidstrom might impress some people but it's really meaningless here in the Calder vote.

 

[wetcoast]

So are you saying that the opinions of some Habs fans on this board should be given more weight than the league-wide consensus? If so, why are you being so obstinate on this issue?

I'm not even sure what you are asking here in reference to my post which was that some people had the Habs asa bottom 5 team last year.

Also some of those same people in this thread want us to look only at hutson and ignore other players, mainly wehn Laine came back which turned the team around.

Laine joining the team and giving us some secondary scoring definitely did help a lot. Want to know the fun fact on that? Hutson has assisted on 79% of Laine's goals this season (11 out of 14).

I'm aware of that, so getting Laine back perhaps served as part of the catalyst in the team fortunes?

I mean the PP took off with Laine back and they both play on it and hutson plays with better players than Celebrini which ahs also been established right?

And for the record I don't think that it impacts the voters impressions all that much or if it does we don't know how much.

All I know is that ever since the Habs resurgence celebrini has been the Calder frontrunner among voters and betting sites.

But to some fans that's being a hater, so ya.

It won't be as much a factor as reaching several milestones that haven't been reached in 30 years, including a possible record (rookie D assists. He needs 16 in his last 21 games to tie the record.

You know if your avatar actually had Gulf of Hutson people might take you more seriously....

 

[Frank Drebin]

Was it though really, have you done a deep dive?

yes, and no

 

[Mattb124]

It doesn't really work that way because you are relying on stats here which doesn't translate across all 3 groups the same..

All goalies and smot forwards can be quantified in their importance on comparable stats, Dmen less so.

Either way Hutson isn't a top 30 Dman and Celebrini isn't a top 60 forward.

The salient point is you can compare goalies against goalies, forward against forwards and defensemen against defensemen based on a given stat. It is where some posters want to compare goalies versus forwards or defensemen based on cherry-picked stats which favor the goalie that I take issue with it.

 

[JustAHabFan]

The poster claimed he was "literally breaking records right now."

He is not.

The rookie assist record is 60... he's got work to do to get there. Chelios posted 64 points as a rookie... that would also require a very strong finish.

He's having a tremendous season, but he hasn't broken any records right now, literally or figuratively, and claiming that he is only adds hyperbole to a thread filled with it.

Hutson got 44 assists in 61 games. The record is 60 assists and he got 21 games to do it. Assuming he played all remaining games (which is a fair assumption because he has played every game this season), the record is well within reach. That assists record has hold up for 45 years by Murphy. If Hutson can break that record, give him the Calder because no rookie defenseman can do that in last 45 years.

 

[wetcoast]

The salient point is you can compare goalies against goalies, forward against forwards and defensemen against defensemen based on a given stat. It is where some posters want to compare goalies versus forwards or defensemen based on cherry-picked stats which favor the goalie that I take issue with it.

The thing is that offense can usually be separated from team, at least a bit and some goalie stats are really team dependant, like wins for example.

Usual disclaimer here in that I trust goalie experts on this as I have less faith in may ability to analyze goalies than I do Dman and forwards.

Usually in terms of confidence and ability to rank players it goes like this for me because of team dynamics,

Forwards

Dmen






Goalies.