Olympics: Enjoy it, Canadian fans, while we can...

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Again you are going with assumptions. You are assuming the players 30+ will be on a down slope and young American players won't get better from 2014 to 2018. Pretty bold but not as bold as saying "long in the tooth".

You have no idea how Kane and the "long in the tooth gang" will perform in 2018 because it is 2014.

Yes we are assuming but that's what we do here. No one can see the future. We can only base our assumption on life experiences and patterns we have seen in the past.

In my hockey watching experience, players peak from 25 to 28 and drop off (fast) from 30 on. Of all the players on the American team, Kane is the least likely to drop off. Players most likely to drop off are Parise, Kesler and Brown - based on the way they play and the fact that they have already started to decline. Once Kessel starts to decline, I think it will happen fast - I don't see him hitting the gym to prolong his physical peak.

We are also not saying young American players will not get better. Of course they will. I just don't see any with a ceiling that comes close to the players I mentioned above.

Again, maybe we will be wrong. Perhaps the U.S. will be a juggernaut of young players and dominate Korea. I just wouldn't bet on it.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Y Once Kessel starts to decline, I think it will happen fast - I don't see him hitting the gym to prolong his physical peak.

Again, maybe we will be wrong.

Yah not hitting the gym has really hurt Kessel

I won't assume anything and watch the US players develop, as they have, in the past few years.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Yah not hitting the gym has really hurt Kessel .

You missed the point. Kessel's about to turn 27. Time will catch up to him - just like it catches up to everyone else. But, of all the players I know, he is the least likely to hit the gym to ward off father time.

I won't assume anything and watch the US players develop, as they have, in the past few years.

Okay. We will see in 3.5 years.

 

[Xokkeu]

Again, maybe we will be wrong. Perhaps the U.S. will be a juggernaut of young players and dominate Korea. I just wouldn't bet on it.

Perhaps you ignored the most likely outcome which is a roughly stationary position for the talent level. The 2014 squad wasn't filled with mid 30 something's like 2002, so there's not going to be an epic collapse. There are young players like Saad Stepan and Kreider who will fill the roles of guys who are getting older like Parise and Kesler. The US will be in just about the same spot in Korea as it was in Sochi. One of the group of top contenders after Canada but needing a bit of luck to win gold. I'd rank them 3rd right now in terms of a future power ranking behind Sweden.

 

[Get North]

Draftees from 2009 like Kadri, Holland, Schenn, Ellis, Cowen etc. ?

The same reason they didn't make the 2014 Olympic roster is the same for the US - they weren't good enough...at the time of the games.

Again you are going with assumptions. You are assuming the players 30+ will be on a down slope and young American players won't get better from 2014 to 2018. Pretty bold but not as bold as saying "long in the tooth".

Here is something I will assume. Canadian goaltenders will again dominate the U20 WJC and the top ten of NHL goalie stats like they used too in the near future. It's cyclical it will happen.

You have no idea how Kane and the "long in the tooth gang" will perform in 2018 because it is 2014.

Those players didn't make it because Canada has a star filled roster, a luxury other countries don't have and that's why it's more important for USA to have quality replacements which I think they lack.

Players like Backes, Brown, Callahan, Kesler, Parise who'll produce less every year. They're already declining and come 2018 I don't think they'll make the team. My knowledge of hockey is that around 29-30 most players will start their decline and slow down as their career goes on. Example is Iginla, 2010 made the team but got worse as his career went on, he was slowing done and wasn't in consideration for 2014. Comparing Iginla to any of those 5 players it's not really close so that speaks alot. I still think those 5 Americans will be in consideration because they'll lack replacements.

Who are those replacements? Well, I can name a few youngsters from 2009 on who I think will have a chance, Bennett, Gaudreau, Coyle, Bjugstad, Saad, Galchenyuk, Eichel, Connor, White. They'll be some late bloomers hopefully but from what we can see this doesn't look great. Here's my 2018 American forward group:

Kessel - Eichel - Kane
JVR - Stepan - Oshie
Pacioretty - Pavelski - Wheeler
Parise - Galchenyuk - Saad
Coyle/Kesler

- Eichel has to become a great player in 2 and a half years.

- JVR, Wheeler, Stepan, Pacioretty will have to improve their game a notch. I don't think they're good enough right now to be relied on secondary scoring so in 4 years they'll have to take the next step which is crucial for USA.

- Not alot of quality depth IMO.

- Oshie, Pavelski will have to stay 'upthere'.

The defense will be a strength for the Americans so I don't think a weak offence will be that threatening to success.

Of course I'm assuming but that's whats keeping this discussion going.

 

[YMCMBYOLO]

You missed the point. Kessel's about to turn 27. Time will catch up to him - just like it catches up to everyone else. But, of all the players I know, he is the least likely to hit the gym to ward off father time.



Okay. We will see in 3.5 years.

You honestly think Kessel will become a dad?!?!? Let alone become married??

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Perhaps you ignored the most likely outcome which is a roughly stationary position for the talent level. The 2014 squad wasn't filled with mid 30 something's like 2002, so there's not going to be an epic collapse. There are young players like Saad Stepan and Kreider who will fill the roles of guys who are getting older like Parise and Kesler. The US will be in just about the same spot in Korea as it was in Sochi. One of the group of top contenders after Canada but needing a bit of luck to win gold. I'd rank them 3rd right now in terms of a future power ranking behind Sweden.

What the heck are you doing up at 3 in the morning, Xokkeu???

You honestly think Kessel will become a dad?!?!? Let alone become married??

I never said that. You need to reread my post, TG.

Those players didn't make it because Canada has a star filled roster, a luxury other countries don't have...

Ray's da man!!!! He's getting too good at this. Pretty soon you won't need me anymore.

**

Labour Day Game - Argos vs Ticat in the NEW Tim Hortons Field starts in 40 minutes!!!! Make sure we all watch. It's going to be GREAT!!!!

 

[Xokkeu]

What the heck are you doing up at 3 in the morning, Xokkeu???



I never said that. You need to reread my post, TG.



Ray's da man!!!! He's getting too good at this. Pretty soon you won't need me anymore.

**

Labour Day Game - Argos vs Ticat in the NEW Tim Hortons Field starts in 40 minutes!!!! Make sure we all watch. It's going to be GREAT!!!!

We don't all live on eastern time.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

Kessel - Eichel - Kane
JVR - Stepan - Oshie
Pacioretty - Pavelski - Wheeler
Parise - Galchenyuk - Saad
Coyle/Kesler

- Not alot of quality depth IMO.

The defense will be a strength for the Americans so I don't think a weak offence will be that threatening to success.

Even as of today I don't think that would be the US starting lineup. As long the US keeps churning out great defenseman and goalies, like they have, the team will have a chance to win any short tournament.

A great example is Canada not having to have a potent offense to win Gold. My crystal ball tells me that the US has plenty of time to develop their younger forwards. At the end of the 2017 NHL season will be a great time to really delve deeper into where the "long tooth gang" is.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Originally Posted by "Stephen" regarding Phil Kessel in the Toronto Maple Leaf thread...

Gary Roberts brought up a good point on Leafs Lunch, players who don't take care of themselves usually face a steep decline in their late 20s, so it will be interesting to see what happens to Phil as he ages, much like a Gaborik in recent years.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

If Kessel plays like Gaborik, in the playoffs especially, has in recent years...Leaf fans will be very happy for years to come.

Phil hasn't been injury prone like Gaborik, so Roberts example is a bad one.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

If Kessel plays like Gaborik, in the playoffs especially, has in recent years...Leaf fans will be very happy for years to come.

Phil hasn't been injury prone like Gaborik, so Roberts example is a bad one.

Kessel is a terrific player but when he falls, he will fall fast because of:

1) His lack of conditioning. There is a recent commercial in which he looks fat - and I mean fat, fat.
2) I really don't think he cares about hockey like a lot of other NHL'ers. I get the impression he would be just as happy sitting on a small boat fishing as he would playing in the NHL. Maybe more happy. I respect that but if I was a Leaf fan, I would be concerned. When Kessels skills start to deteriorate, I could see him hanging them up (at a young age).

 

[Xokkeu]

 

[The Bad Guy*]

It's not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, Crosby's game may fall significantly at a relatively early age also. He's already had to adjust his game because of the wear and tear the way he played impacted on his health. I would not be surprised he drops off to an 80 point type player in about 3 years.Counting on Crosby being Crosby in some not yet certain 2018 olympics is a significant reach IMO.

We don't know how these guys games are going to age. We can make no assumptions on the positive or negative side.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Why would you say that?

It's not out of the realm of possibility.

Of course, Crosby's game may fall significantly at a relatively early age also. He's already had to adjust his game because of the wear and tear the way he played impacted on his health. I would not be surprised he drops off to an 80 point type player in about 3 years.Counting on Crosby being Crosby in some not yet certain 2018 olympics is a significant reach IMO.

We don't know how these guys games are going to age. We can make no assumptions on the positive or negative side.

I just don't see Kessel looking himself in the mirror, as he gets older and his skill drops and saying, "That's it! Going forward, I am hitting the gym everyday and eating nothing but healthy food." Not going to happen.

 

[The Bad Guy*]

Well,in the guys defense, if I looked like Phil Kessel I would have given up looking in the mirror long ago.

His self esteem in life is never going to be derived from his earthly physical entity.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Well,in the guys defense, if I looked like Phil Kessel I would have given up looking in the mirror long ago.

That's awful but it made me laugh.

His self esteem in life is never going to be derived from his earthly physical entity.

I'm not saying he's a bad kid. He seems like a nice young man and he is wonderfully skilled. I just don't think he's obsessed with hockey - and I don't say that in a bad way. He seems to have other priorities in life. Good for him.

 

[SanDogBrewin]

"When Kessels skills start to deteriorate"

Ok when that happens but Gary Roberts doesn't know when that will happen. Imagine if a "Marc Savard" type or a legit #1 center were playing with Phil since he got to Toronto.

Kessel hasn't slowed down without a true #1 center. How good he does or doesn't look in the mirror has not effected Phil.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

"When Kessels skills start to deteriorate"

Ok when that happens but Gary Roberts doesn't know when that will happen. Imagine if a "Marc Savard" type or a legit #1 center were playing with Phil since he got to Toronto.

Kessel hasn't slowed down without a true #1 center. How good he does or doesn't look in the mirror has not effected Phil.

But he is blessed with skills that will deteriorate like they do with everyone. If he doesn't hit the gym, it will be hard for him to stay on top. I think that was Gary Robert's point - as well as Tim Leiweke's.

 

[The Bad Guy*]

That's awful but it made me laugh.



I'm not saying he's a bad kid. He seems like a nice young man and he is wonderfully skilled. I just don't think he's obsessed with hockey - and I don't say that in a bad way. He seems to have other priorities in life. Good for him.

For what it's worth my assumption is guys like Kessel and Crosby will both still be good players by 2018 but not as good as they once were.

 

[Get North]

As he gets older, he'll have to work harder and stay in better shape, I think that's the point and his decline will hit faster if he doesn't work harder or stay in better shape.

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

For what it's worth my assumption is guys like Kessel and Crosby will both still be good players by 2018 but not as good as they once were.

I agree. But, if you were a betting person, who do you think will fall more?

It is Crosby injuries versus Kessel's lackadaisical attitude.

As he gets older, he'll have to work harder and stay in better shape, I think that's the point and his decline will hit faster if he doesn't work harder or stay in better shape.

Yup.

 

[The Bad Guy*]

I agree. But, if you were a betting person, who do you think will fall more?

It is Crosby injuries versus Kessel's lackadaisical attitude.



Yup.

Depends,Do we know for sure that Sir Phil is lackadaisical?

 

[OttawaRoughRiderFan*]

Depends,Do we know for sure that Sir Phil is lackadaisical?

Well if he isn't and he is currently in good shape, he's going to be 500 lbs after his career.

 

[The Bad Guy*]

There is some great buffets in Toronto.