Empty net goal scoring is getting out of control

[StumpyTown]

Part of the reason is the parity in the league. I don't know the stats, but would not be surprised to find that there are a lot more one goal games entering into the last few minutes of the third period now than in the past. That, along with teams pulling goalies with 2ish instead of 1 minute, will play into inflated numbers as well.

 

[Ghost of Murph]

A stat as significant as goals scored should not be messed with. Obviously the strategy of pulling the goalie earlier than in the past when down multiple goals is the main reason for more empty net chances in today's NHL. Surprised this strategy took so long for coaches to implement.

There are many factors in different eras as to why more/less goals are scored -- defensive systems, goalie gear, stick composition, strategies, etc are all going to change from time to time. ENGs are up due to a change in strategy. Not a big deal in my book. Just a result of an evolution in the sport, like so many other changes that affected stats over the years.

 

[Romang67]

Actually, goal differential is the tie breaker when it comes to determining position in the standings and can be the difference between getting into the playoffs or not.

An interesting stat would be to look at teams who missed the playoffs due to goal differential vs. the number of empty net goals those teams allowed.

Edit:
I'll go a step further and say that if your team is allowing excess empty net goals at this point in the season, they do not expect to make the playoffs.

Goal differential is the sixth tie breaker after:

Point percentage
Regulation Wins
Regulation or Overtime Wins
Total Wins
Head-to-head matchups.

 

[Toby91ca]

Goal differential is the sixth tie breaker after:

Point percentage
Regulation Wins
Regulation or Overtime Wins
Total Wins
Head-to-head matchups.

Well....technically it's really the 5th tie-breaker because you only need to go to tie-breaker at the end of the season and by then, point percentage isn't a tie-breaker anymore.

 

[cooldhruv7]

Last season, I created a thread discussing the increased prominence of empty-net scoring and its underappreciated effect on the scoring rates of the league’s top players (along with 3-on-3 OT);

Empty Net & Overtime Scoring: Their Effects on Scoring Distribution and the Resulting Inflation of Point Totals for the League's Top Players

Empty net scoring has seen a huge uptick in recent seasons, largely thanks to analytics revealing that playing with an empty net is actually of a net benefit for a team aiming to make a comeback. Goals conceded during these situations are now considered to be largely inconsequential; after all...

forums.hfboards.com

This season, I’ve noticed that many games have featured multiple empty-net goals, and it seems as though their overall frequency continues to rise. So, I checked the numbers and sure enough the stats corroborate this observation. Empty-net goals are up a whopping 34% this year compared to last season, which was already at near record-setting levels. We’ve now reached a point where over 10% of all NHL goals (127 of 1173=10.8%) are being scored in these situations, either playing against(83) and with(44) an empty net;
View attachment 926467

For comparison purposes, powerplay scoring represents just over 20% of all NHL goals while OT and shorthanded scoring each account for 2.6%(30 each) Yes, that's right, the number of goals scored in empty net situations is now more than half of the total number of powerplay goals scored so far this season(238).

Seasons​	​	PPG/Gm​	ENG/Gm​	6v5G/Gm​	ENG % of all G​	6v5 % of all G​	For & Against ENG​	PP % of all G​
1963 to 1967​	O6 sample​	1.29​	0.06​	​	1.0%​	0.5%*​	1.5%​	22.2%​
1967 to 1979​	Post O6 Expansion​	1.39​	0.09​	​	1.4%​	0.7%*​	2.1%​	21.5%​
1979 to 1994​	Post WHL Expansion​	1.89​	0.14​	​	1.9%​	0.9%*​	2.7%​	25.6%​
1994 to 2014​	Post '94 lockout​	1.45​	0.17​	​	3.0%​	1.5%*​	4.5%​	26.2%​
2014 to 2018​	surge in EN scoring​	1.17​	0.26​	0.11​	4.7%​	2.1%​	6.7%​	21.3%​
2018 to 2024​	subtle increase​	1.21​	0.33​	0.14​	5.4%​	2.3%​	7.6%​	19.9%​
This season​	second surge​	1.29​	0.45​	0.24​	7.1%​	3.8%​	10.8%​	20.4%​

* denotes estimates - 6v5 numbers are not available prior to the 1999-00 season the estimate is based off a rate of 0.5 6v5 goals per ENG. The numbers since 1999-00 are accurate and taken from naturalstattrick

Yearly change in goals per game, all higher scoring situations.
Higher scoring 3v3 OT was introduced in 15-16;
View attachment 926504

Empty net scoring is becoming the new and improved 'power play,' - scoring rates and playing with an empty net are higher than powerplay scoring rates and scoring rates playing against an empty net are 3 times as high! If I did the math right, teams have only played a total of about 2.7% of all regulation game time with a goalie pulled and yet teams have scored 11.1% of their regulation goals in during this time(127 of 1173 -28 OT goals). This shift is leading to a scoring bonanza and part of the reason why scoring rates are currently at their highest level in over 30 years. The question is: should the NHL be concerned about this trend, or is it a positive development for the league?

For the record, I’m not arguing for or against it, the alarming thread title was just to get you 'in the door.' I simply want to highlight this trend and its potential implications when comparing players across different eras.

Is there a way I cam get data for when teams pull? And if they pull down 2 or 3 or don't sometimes

Is there data that exists in that way ?

 

[vipera1960]

Taken to it's natural conclusion and if the scoring ratios remain the same teams will continue to push the boundaries of how early they pull goalies. Whereas before 1 minute was the norm and seeing how 2 minutes has now become the new norm - eventually 3, 4 or even 5+ minutes will become the future norm once it's become 'acceptable'. I think the only solution would be to place a cap or limit on either exactly when teams can pull a goalie or for how long they can. The latter solution would being more idea because the former would curtail situations where team pull a goalie during a delayed penalty, but the latter option would make things more complicated because then the ref would have to watch teams for that and you might also have to have rules in place for when the limit can be reset.


Because that was in a way an anomaly, even if he was gunning for it. But we're getting to the point where you'll soon see 5 or 10 players scoring 10 or more ENG's per year.


Good question. It would take a while to go through the historical numbers but compared to years last season there has been a slight decrease of -6.5% in the number of games going into OT, though the number of ENG's are up far more at +34%. This year 19.5% 36 of 185 games have gone to OT (30 OT wins/loses, 6 SO's) vs last years rate of 20.7%, 272 of 1312 games going to OT(190 OT wins/loses and 82 SO's). For some reason a lot more games are ending in OT than going into shootouts though - the rate for which has dropped by almost 50%!

I think it’s unlikely that teams start pulling the goalie 3+ minutes from the end of the game on a regular basis. The problem is that 2 minutes is already approaching the upper limit for shift length. That means the 6v5 team would have to execute a line change without turning the puck over, and then send out their 2nd best unit. I think if this became a commonly used strategy you would see the rate of successful goalie pulls diminish significantly. That said, there are certainly situations where pulling the goalie makes sense even with 10+ minutes left (ex PP while trailing), and I’m often surprised that coaches aren’t more aggressive when the occur.

 

[Master P]

Kucherov, the generational trend setter.