EMERGENCY FAN MEETING: The Senators are Soft, Broken, and Have No Identity - Here's My Fix. Share Yours.

[Good in Osgoode]

For me, and I am going to put goaltending aside for the sake of this response, one of the biggest issues that this team faces is lack of scoring outside of our top 6. We have 75 goals so far this year, which is really good. 59 of those 75 goals comes from our top 6 forwards, which is I think is outstanding.

That's just under 80% of our total goals is coming from the top 6 forwards.
We have 16 goals combined, in 24 games, from our bottom-6 & our D.

We have 12 goals from our bottom-6 and just 4 goals from our D, so far this season.
I have to think that is got to be league worst, or close to, in both categories.

I don't have a quick fix response for this other than to somehow find the right chemistry for Pinto & Greig. These 2 players are the main 2 guys that need to get going and provide some offence to this team. They combine for 10 points in 37 games. Add in Perron, and you have 10 points in 46 games.
Amadio, Gregor & Cousins combine for 13 points in 65 games. We need more from this group.

As for the D, 4 goals. Pretty sure that is league worst.
For reference, Morgan Reilly has 4 goals.
We need more offence from the D.

 

[Micklebot]

The number that you’ve historically had to hit to get the wildcard:

23/24 - 91 pts
22/23 - 92 pts
21/22 - 100 pts
18/19 - 98 pts
17/18 - 97 pts

So assuming 92-94 pts would be needed is not pulling a number out of nowhere.

And if you accept the possibility that the Senators can play above their current pace for the next 58 games, you have to accept the possibility that one, two or three of the 7 teams currently ahead of us for that final wildcard will also play above their current pace.

So no, 89 points most likely won’t get it done.

Not only do the Senators have to play better than .600 hockey the rest of the way, they have to hope that 7 other teams all play worse.

Again, the hole they’ve put themselves in after spending the last 6 months talking about how they wouldn’t let it happen, is ridiculous.

There’s zero reason an objective person would think this team could turn it around. Only the biggest fanboy would think it’s realistic. And that’s fine, fans can believe. Up until last week, I had Jets fans in my life telling me that Rodgers would still get them into the playoffs.

But that’s not an objective view.

You're missing the point, right now, in this reality, this year, the guys we need to catch are pacing at 89 pts. So to be in the mix with them right now, we need to catch up to them, not hypothetical teams from prior years. Now, it may turn out that it still takes 94 pts to get in at the end of the year, but if in 6 games from now, we're pacing at 90 pts, and they're still pacing at 89, it would not be particularly objective to say we aren't in the mix, now would it? Just like it's wildly unobjective to say we need to go on a 20-2-1 Hammond-esque miracle to save the season.

 

[DackellDuck]

You're missing the point, right now, in this reality, this year, the guys we need to catch are pacing at 89 pts. So to be in the mix with them right now, we need to catch up to them, not hypothetical teams from prior years. Now, it may turn out that it still takes 94 pts to get in at the end of the year, but if in 6 games from now, we're pacing at 90 pts, and they're still pacing at 89, it would not be particularly objective to say we aren't in the mix, now would it? Just like it's wildly unobjective to say we need to go on a 20-2-1 Hammond-esque miracle to save the season.

Sure, if in 6 games from now we’re pacing towards 90 and all 7 teams ahead of us are still pacing towards 89, we’re in the mix.

That’s fine. As a fan, you can hang onto that. Hopefully no other team plays better except for us.

But the objective view around the league is that this is a bad team and something drastic would have to happen or change for it to all of a sudden become a good team.

And as a point of reference, in the Hamburgler year, we were 9-9-7 for 25 points through 24 games. 3 more points that we have today.

Back then, that was considered a disastrous start. Paul MacLean was fired.

Crazy how standards and expectations have fallen.

If you watch this team play and think to yourself “gosh we’re so close”, then we really have nothing in common in our viewpoints, so no real point debating.

We are 2nd last in the East. That’s who we are. A cellar dweller. Not an “in the mix” team.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

For me, and I am going to put goaltending aside for the sake of this response, one of the biggest issues that this team faces is lack of scoring outside of our top 6. We have 75 goals so far this year, which is really good. 59 of those 75 goals comes from our top 6 forwards, which is I think is outstanding.

That's just under 80% of our total goals is coming from the top 6 forwards.
We have 16 goals combined, in 24 games, from our bottom-6 & our D.

We have 12 goals from our bottom-6 and just 4 goals from our D, so far this season.
I have to think that is got to be league worst, or close to, in both categories.

I don't have a quick fix response for this other than to somehow find the right chemistry for Pinto & Greig. These 2 players are the main 2 guys that need to get going and provide some offence to this team. They combine for 10 points in 37 games. Add in Perron, and you have 10 points in 46 games.
Amadio, Gregor & Cousins combine for 13 points in 65 games. We need more from this group.

As for the D, 4 goals. Pretty sure that is league worst.
For reference, Morgan Reilly has 4 goals.
We need more offence from the D.

Good post. It's not like all these guys just forgot how to play hockey. Something is obviously amiss with their production that hopefully can be corrected that gets more of them towards their career averages and trajectories. It's like a whole group snake bitten at once. These are all NHLers and like we've seen from other guys bouncing out of here, they probably contribute as normal on other teams just fine. Don't think anyone on this squad is out of the NHL next year other than maybe Hamonic.

 

[Micklebot]

Sure, if in 6 games from now we’re pacing towards 90 and all 7 teams ahead of us are still pacing towards 89, we’re in the mix.

That’s fine. As a fan, you can hang onto that. Hopefully no other team plays better except for us.

But the objective view around the league is that this is a bad team and something drastic would have to change for it to all of a sudden become a good team.

Also as a point of reference, in the Hamburgler year, we were 9-9-7 for 25 points through 24 games. 3 more points that we have today.

Back then, that was considered a disastrous start. Paul MacLean was fired.

Crazy how standards and expectations have fallen.

I'm sure some teams will play better, and some teams will play worse than their current pace. But objectively speaking, if we're pacing at ~90 pts after that 6 game stretch, we will very likely be in the mix with TbL, Bos, Clb, and Phi for one of the wild card spots. Heck, if TbL and Bos are the two teams that play worse, we might even be in a divisional spot.

The reality is the Atlantic is very tight right now, that's the reality we live in.

Doubling down on the Hammond claim doesn't make you look any better, it's a really dumb take 24 games into the season. If we went on that run right now, we be pacing at 112 pts after 47 games. That's not what it would "take" to save the season.

 

[DackellDuck]

I'm sure some teams will play better, and some teams will play worse than their current pace. But objectively speaking, if we're pacing at ~90 pts after that 6 game stretch, we will very likely be in the mix with TbL, Bos, Clb, and Phi for one of the wild card spots. Heck, if TbL and Bos are the two teams that play worse, we might even be in a divisional spot.

The reality is the Atlantic is very tight right now, that's the reality we live in.

Doubling down on the Hammond claim doesn't make you look any better, it's a really dumb take 24 games into the season. If we went on that run right now, we be pacing at 112 pts after 47 games. That's not what it would "take" to save the season.

We’re currently playing .458 hockey through 24 games. We need to play ~.615-620 hockey the rest of the way.

So sure, don’t take my Hammond example literally. But something drastic needs to change, or happen, IMO.

Maybe it’s Sanderson getting hot and playing like Makar, all of a sudden. Maybe it’s Ullmark going on a 15 game run where he puts up a .935 save percentage. Or it’s a big trade.

But it’s going to take something big, and quite frankly unexpected, to turn it around.

Based on how this team has played, there’s no real reason to believe they’re just a couple of tweaks away from playing .600 hockey.

 

[Nova Stutzlia]

The (possible) good news is that 7 of the next 8 games are winnable.
The ( probable) bad news is that there's a murderers row of 5 games after that.
Crunch Time is upon us.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

Best in class…..

 

[Loach]

6 GAMES!

 

[Micklebot]

We’re currently playing .458 hockey through 24 games. We need to play ~.615-620 hockey the rest of the way.

So sure, don’t take my Hammond example literally. But something drastic needs to change, or happen, IMO.

Maybe it’s Sanderson getting hot and playing like Makar, all of a sudden. Maybe it’s Ullmark going on a 15 game run where he puts up a .935 save percentage. Or it’s a big trade.

But it’s going to take something big, and quite frankly unexpected, to turn it around.

Based on how this team has played, there’s no real reason to believe they’re just a couple of tweaks away from playing .600 hockey.

literally a 5 game win streak puts us back in the mix. That doesn't require Sanderson turning into Makar or Ulmmark pulling putting up a 15 game streak of .935, the whole point is there is way too much hockey left to say it will take something crazy. We've had these types of runs as recently as last year and it didn't take a miracle or godly goaltending, hell, we had a .881 sv% when we went 11-4-3 last year, with no makar like performances..

The hyperbole around how dire things are needs to stop, it won't be easy but it's achievable without miracles.

 

[Loach]

literally a 5 game win streak puts us back in the mix. That doesn't require Sanderson turning into Makar or Ulmmark pulling putting up a 15 game streak of .935, the whole point is there is way too much hockey left to say it will take something crazy. We've had these types of runs as recently as last year and it didn't take a miracle or godly goaltending, hell, we had a .881 sv% when we went 11-4-3 last year, with no makar like performances..

The hyperbole around how dire things are needs to stop, it won't be easy but it's achievable without miracles.

Now you move to a 5 game win streak? Say it. 6 games. Saaaaaay it! Looool.

 

[DackellDuck]

literally a 5 game win streak puts us back in the mix. That doesn't require Sanderson turning into Makar or Ulmmark pulling putting up a 15 game streak of .935, the whole point is there is way too much hockey left to say it will take something crazy. We've had these types of runs as recently as last year and it didn't take a miracle or godly goaltending, hell, we had a .881 sv% when we went 11-4-3 last year, with no makar like performances..

The hyperbole around how dire things are needs to stop, it won't be easy but it's achievable without miracles.

You’re really missing the point. We can’t just have a 5 game win streak. Or nice 10 game run. We need a good 58 game run.

I’m not talking about being “in the mix” or whatever that means by Christmas.

I’m talking about making the playoffs.

I agree with you, we’re capable of having a good 5 game streak. Or even 6!

But can we do it for 58? When was our last good 58 game run?

Can we go 36-22 the rest of the way?

From what I’ve seen, it will take something drastic for that to happen.

 

[Loach]

You’re really missing the point. We can’t just have a 5 game win streak. Or nice 10 game run. We need a good 58 game run.

I’m not talking about being “in the mix” or whatever that means by Christmas.

I’m talking about making the playoffs.

I agree with you, we’re capable of having a good 5 game streak. Or even 6!

Can we do it for 58? When was our last good 58 game run?

From what I’ve seen, it will take something drastic for that to happen.

If they win..6...then it would only be 52 games left. That is much easier than 58.

 

[Micklebot]

Now you move to a 5 game win streak? Say it. 6 games. Saaaaaay it! Looool.

You should go to the open Mic, you're a riot, the loool really sells it,

 

[DackellDuck]

If they win..6...then it would only be 52 games left. That is much easier than 58.

You’re right, let’s start with a 6-0 run. We’ll get the “in the mix at Christmas” banner and who cares about anything else after that.

 

[Loach]

You should go to the open Mic, you're a riot, the loool really sells it,

Tough crowd.

 

[Micklebot]

You’re really missing the point. We can’t just have a 5 game win streak. Or nice 10 game run. We need a good 58 game run.

I’m not talking about being “in the mix” or whatever that means by Christmas.

I’m talking about making the playoffs.

I agree with you, we’re capable of having a good 5 game streak. Or even 6!

But can we do it for 58? When was our last good 58 game run?

Can we go 36-22 the rest of the way?

From what I’ve seen, it will take something drastic for that to happen.

I'm missing the point? The discussion was about getting out of the "hole" we've dug. We can do that with a reasonable and achievable streak, after that, it's a different ball game,

You've made several claims of drastic improvements needed, whether it be Sanderson turning into Makar, or Ullmark going .935 for 15 games, while I've shown examples of us playing well enough in the recent past where that wasn't needed to get the wins


Who's being objective, the guy citing examples or the guy making up hyperbolic requirements based on nothing?

 

[PlayOn]

Honestly by January 3rd we’ll have our answer one way or another.

We have an 8 game road trip against Western Conference teams.

Last year we won one game the whole season against those teams on the road. If we haven’t vastly improved from that we are going to be in a hole that’s legitimately insurmountable.

 

[DackellDuck]

I'm missing the point? The discussion was about getting out of the "hole" we've dug. We can do that with a reasonable and achievable streak, after that, it's a different ball game,

You've made several claims of drastic improvements needed, whether it be Sanderson turning into Makar, or Ullmark going .935 for 15 games, while I've shown examples of us playing well enough in the recent past where that wasn't needed to get the wins


Who's being objective, the guy citing examples or the guy making up hyperbolic requirements based on nothing?

Getting out of the hole we dug to make the playoffs.

Not getting out of the hole we dug to be “in the mix” in December.

Like I said, we need 35-36 wins in the next 58 games. That’s what I care about. Thats what we need to do because of the hole we’ve dug. That’s what I’m talking about when I say something “drastic” needs to happen for it to occur.

But can we have a nice 6 game run followed by a poor 6 game run, for the rest of the year, with the status quo? Sure. I agree with you there. We’ve shown we can do that.

 

[darude]

It's wild the op says Timmy's not physical. Dude's seemed like a different beast this year and seems to be using his body way more.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

They just need to be the absolute best defensive team in the entire league and then they can finally make the playoffs

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Yeah this core is tainted by Dorion's incompetence.

This core is over AFAIC.

Into another rebuild we go. Thankfully we have a real GM this time, alongside a real business person as an owner.

 

[Tuna99]

You're missing the point, right now, in this reality, this year, the guys we need to catch are pacing at 89 pts. So to be in the mix with them right now, we need to catch up to them, not hypothetical teams from prior years. Now, it may turn out that it still takes 94 pts to get in at the end of the year, but if in 6 games from now, we're pacing at 90 pts, and they're still pacing at 89, it would not be particularly objective to say we aren't in the mix, now would it? Just like it's wildly unobjective to say we need to go on a 20-2-1 Hammond-esque miracle to save the season.

Anything below 90 points isn’t Responsable playoff predicting but for 92 points (would of got you in last year) Sens have to go 35-23 which they can do, it’s a .605 win percentage which is well within their grasp, the goalies look like they are finally ready, let’s see if Green can get through to all 20 guys on the same night and see a full team win. Need signs of life

 

[Micklebot]

Getting out of the hole we dug to make the playoffs.

Not getting out of the hole we dug to be “in the mix” in December.

If we're out of the hole in December, then we're in a good position to make the playoffs, that's the point.

Like I said, we need 35-36 wins in the next 58 games. That’s what I care about. Thats what we need to do because of the hole we’ve dug.. That’s what I’m talking about when I say something “drastic” needs to happen.

Well, your win count assumes no loser points, so you can probably bring the number down a few notches, it's also assuming that teams will improve their pace between now and the end of the year. Last year, at this time of year, the final wild card team was pacing at 93 pts, by the end of the year, Washington claimed that wild card spot with 91 pts . This year, the final wild card spot is pacing at 89 pts. At the end of the year, who knows.

32-21-5 would put us at 91 pts, is that achievable, well, we'll need to get > .900 sv% and probably more out of our secondary scoring if we want to do it, but it's not Hammond-esque that's for sure.

 

[DackellDuck]

If we're out of the hole in December, then we're in a good position to make the playoffs, that's the point.

Well, your win count assumes no loser points, so you can probably bring the number down a few notches, it's also assuming that teams will improve their pace between now and the end of the year. Last year, at this time of year, the final wild card team was pacing at 93 pts, by the end of the year, Washington claimed that wild card spot with 91 pts . This year, the final wild card spot is pacing at 89 pts. At the end of the year, who knows.

32-21-5 would put us at 91 pts, is that achievable, well, we'll need to get > .900 sv% and probably more out of our secondary scoring if we want to do it, but it's not Hammond-esque that's for sure.

Okay, not Hammond-esque, fair.

But it’s a significant improvement over what we’ve seen so far this year, and what we’ve seen from this core in the last couple of years.

The objective person would say it’s very unlikely, unless something changes. Unless you’re a fan and just want to believe (which is fine), there’s no real reason to believe.

And there’s no margin for error. Not only do we need more secondary scoring and better goaltending, but we can’t have any dips or cold streaks from a guy like Stützle.