Ianturnedbull
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- Jun 11, 2022
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Speculation: Elite-Level Round Table Discussion. Topic: TML's Bottom 6 Forwards.
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67Leafs67
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- Nov 8, 2014
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Yeah, I cannot say that I am a fan of how Toronto's forward group has performed this year. It seems like a lot of players in the bottom half of the lineup are having down years, especially offensively:
Max Domi: 0.59 ppg --> 0.42 ppg
Max Pacioretty: 0.49 ppg --> 0.36 ppg
Nick Robertson: 0.48 ppg --> 0.28 ppg
Pontus Holmberg: 0.31 ppg --> 0.21 ppg
Connor Dewar: 0.26 ppg --> 0.10 ppg
David Kämpf: 0.24 ppg --> 0.18 ppg
Ryan Reaves: 0.12 ppg --> 0.06 ppg
The only guys who have been better are Bobby McMann (0.43 ppg --> 0.52 ppg) and Matthew Knies (0.44 ppg --> 0.66 ppg), both of whom have now comfortably established themselves as top-six forwards on the team. Then, you look at the fact that while John Tavares (0.81 ppg --> 0.95 ppg) and Mitch Marner (1.23 ppg --> 1.33 ppg) have seen an uptick in productivity, William Nylander (1.20 ppg --> 1.00 ppg) and Auston Matthews (1.32 ppg --> 1.06 ppg) are both producing less, and you need a bit of depth scoring more than ever, especially when the defense has the lowest offensive contribution league-wide, with just 11 goals between them. Not to mention, they never really replaced Tyler Bertuzzi (0.54 ppg in 23-24) and have been missing Calle Järnkrok (0.40 ppg in 23-24) all year.
Not sure how much of it is a systems problem, and how much of it is a personnel problem, but the big hurdle for the Leafs in the post-season has been that they just can't score when they need to, and I don't see this group suddenly finding the goals in the big moments.
Maybe adding Brandon Saad, who had 26 goals last season, helps bolster the group. He hasn't been great this year, but a change of scenery could potentially help revitalize his game, and he's got some experience as a playoff scorer... but that's definitely not near enough to push this team where it needs to be to contend.
Max Domi: 0.59 ppg --> 0.42 ppg
Max Pacioretty: 0.49 ppg --> 0.36 ppg
Nick Robertson: 0.48 ppg --> 0.28 ppg
Pontus Holmberg: 0.31 ppg --> 0.21 ppg
Connor Dewar: 0.26 ppg --> 0.10 ppg
David Kämpf: 0.24 ppg --> 0.18 ppg
Ryan Reaves: 0.12 ppg --> 0.06 ppg
The only guys who have been better are Bobby McMann (0.43 ppg --> 0.52 ppg) and Matthew Knies (0.44 ppg --> 0.66 ppg), both of whom have now comfortably established themselves as top-six forwards on the team. Then, you look at the fact that while John Tavares (0.81 ppg --> 0.95 ppg) and Mitch Marner (1.23 ppg --> 1.33 ppg) have seen an uptick in productivity, William Nylander (1.20 ppg --> 1.00 ppg) and Auston Matthews (1.32 ppg --> 1.06 ppg) are both producing less, and you need a bit of depth scoring more than ever, especially when the defense has the lowest offensive contribution league-wide, with just 11 goals between them. Not to mention, they never really replaced Tyler Bertuzzi (0.54 ppg in 23-24) and have been missing Calle Järnkrok (0.40 ppg in 23-24) all year.
Not sure how much of it is a systems problem, and how much of it is a personnel problem, but the big hurdle for the Leafs in the post-season has been that they just can't score when they need to, and I don't see this group suddenly finding the goals in the big moments.
Maybe adding Brandon Saad, who had 26 goals last season, helps bolster the group. He hasn't been great this year, but a change of scenery could potentially help revitalize his game, and he's got some experience as a playoff scorer... but that's definitely not near enough to push this team where it needs to be to contend.
BobClarkesfrontteeth
Registered User
Bring in a couple of "heavier" players who are more suited to the "get the puck in deep and fore check" style that Berube and his staff wants will do wonders for the bottom 6. Saad would be a great start and I have said since last year a player like Kunin would be a big add as well. After that finding a way to get that blue line to contribute more to the offense should be a priority.
At the end of the day any team that goes deep in the playoffs needs its top 6 players to do most of the scoring look at any cup winner. Thier top players dominate and they get premium goaltending. IF Willy, Mitch and Auston are not scoring at atleast a 1.2 PPG rate then this team is not going very far. It doesn't matter who is on the bottom 6.
At the end of the day any team that goes deep in the playoffs needs its top 6 players to do most of the scoring look at any cup winner. Thier top players dominate and they get premium goaltending. IF Willy, Mitch and Auston are not scoring at atleast a 1.2 PPG rate then this team is not going very far. It doesn't matter who is on the bottom 6.
Community
44 is Rielly good
When JT and Knies are back, they better push for 3 offendive lines unless we are rolling by then.
McMann - Matthews - Domi
Pacioretty - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Minten - Nylander
Dewar - Kampf - Lorentz
Minten should probably be upgrade for an offensive minded 3C. Or you can put Domi there and put Robertson on the wing.
Can swap support players around, but run Matthews/Marner/Nylander on 3 separate lines for a bit. Can double shift Nylander a few times in place of Domi or Pacioretty to get him up in minutes.
I dont care if you go back to what Berube thinks are the best lines in the future... but change things up for a bit. A few tap ins generated for Domi/Pacioretty/Minten/Robertson could help get one or more of them going again.
McMann - Matthews - Domi
Pacioretty - Tavares - Marner
Knies - Minten - Nylander
Dewar - Kampf - Lorentz
Minten should probably be upgrade for an offensive minded 3C. Or you can put Domi there and put Robertson on the wing.
Can swap support players around, but run Matthews/Marner/Nylander on 3 separate lines for a bit. Can double shift Nylander a few times in place of Domi or Pacioretty to get him up in minutes.
I dont care if you go back to what Berube thinks are the best lines in the future... but change things up for a bit. A few tap ins generated for Domi/Pacioretty/Minten/Robertson could help get one or more of them going again.
Macallan18
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- Aug 10, 2015
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meh, we are doomed. This group we have will fail, and hopefully Shanahan, Treliving and Berube will all be swept out the door. All incompetent buffoons.
Stephen
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Would be interesting if someone could do a 32 team breakdown on what F7-F12 production looks like across the league.
Macallan18
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67Leafs67
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Magic Man
Registered User
How long before we see Calle Jarnkrok in action? I saw a clip of him skating a few weeks ago. He can't be too far off.
He will probably put up similar production to what Saad would provide when he returns. The lineup doesn't need two new additions that soft playing large minutes either.
He will probably put up similar production to what Saad would provide when he returns. The lineup doesn't need two new additions that soft playing large minutes either.
Stephen
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Well also, not to beat up on the star players even more, but AM, JT and WN each make over $11 million apiece but hover between 1.06 and 0.95 PPG. That’s kinda low compared to your salary comparables like Draisaitl, Kucherov, McDavid, Mackinnon.
Maple Leaf
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- Sep 18, 2009
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It is a finite cap and deeper you go into the playoffs the tighter it becomes you need to use the money wisely and get value for the dollar it is basic economics Stephen
Stephen
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