Player Discussion Elias Pettersson | The Forward. Not the defensemen.

[CanucksSayEh]

EP finished the Bruce bump season with only 68p.

His big season was split between the 2, with him being better in the second half, mostly under Tocch.

 

[pitseleh]

Decided to take another look at Pettersson’s scoring woes by the numbers. He’s got 30 points in 42 games this season, but if he were scoring at a 90-100 point pace he should have around 45-50, meaning he’s about 15-20 points behind where you’d hope he’d be. Of that, you’d expect about 6-7 more even strength goals, 4-5 more even strength assists, and 5-6 more PP assists.

Of that:

- Pettersson’s on-ice xGF is down about 5 xGF compared to his last three seasons. Since his xGF% is unchanged, it’s been offset by allowing fewer opportunities against. That is likely a system / conservative play issue, and has likely cost him 3-4 points this season, consistent with the drop off in assists.

- Pettersson’s on-ice and individual SH% are way down. For his on-ice SH%, if he were at his average rate the last few seasons he’d have 5 more assists. If his SH% were at his career average he’d have 2 more goals. Often percentages can be an indicator of bad luck, but Pettersson has always been a huge positive outlier for so long that it could also be a skill/play/system/linemate issue. For his assists at least, it is mostly his second assists that are down, which suggests it is more likely not a skill issue but it’s not strong one way or another.

- Pettersson is about 2 individual xGF behind where he would otherwise be, which is also contributing to his reduced goal scoring. Notably, he’s right on track with the last three seasons in terms of generating high danger chances for himself. This is basically directly tied to him taking fewer low and medium danger chances, which seems reasonable to attribute to being a system-related effect.

- As I noted in the last thread, Pettersson is basically in line with his career norms for PPG. But his assists are way down, about 5-6 behind where he should be. Notably his first assists are only 1 behind where his pace should be, but he’s 4 behind on secondary assists. Pettersson looks pretty weak as a primary playmaker on the PP and looks like he is being hurt by Miller’s decline in PP productivity.

On the whole, if Pettersson had 18 more points he’d be on pace for 94 points. Of that, about a third of the difference compared to his current pace looks to pretty clearly be related to the team’s system / playing low event hockey. That knocks off about 10-12 points from Pettersson’s full season projection.

Another third is connected to his playmaking on the PP. Pettersson has never put up huge assist numbers there so it may just be a limitation in his game, and it may not rebound without more help.

The final third is his percentages caving in. That seems to me to be the mushy middle where the question is how much is this a skill / play issue versus bad luck/system/teammates. The fact that the biggest decline is in his secondary assists suggests that something other than skill / play is at least contributing.

 

[sting101]

FFS it's not Tocchets fault. It's not the teams fault.

Sure the D and linemates are responsible for some of the reductions in scoring but great players elevate everyone else's games. That is the problem here.

Nice to see him putting in some extra work and showing he cares to get it turned around

 

[ExarKun80]

EP finished the Bruce bump season with only 68p.

His big season was split between the 2, with him being better in the second half, mostly under Tocch.

What are you talking about dude? The Bruce bump continued the next season when Skinny had his 102 pts in 2022-2023. Rick coached the canucks for the last 36 games and Bruce coached the canucks for the first 46 games of that season.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

He’s in his head, not preparing himself. It’s been said management hasn’t been happy with Pettersson offseason training, he doesn’t seem to be taking it serious. This same thing happened with Kuz, he busted his ass to get into the NHL, got a payday and didn’t train well enough in the offseason, spent the offseason partying which lead to a horrible season. Sounds like something similar with Pettersson. I don’t doubt he had some kinda of injury last season but this is something all players go through.

Interesting.

From my experience working with pro athletes what you describe is almost non existent at the NHL level. There are like 10 mayby 15 players in the league who dont work insanely hard at their craft.

These are extreme outliers with intuitive skill and or amazing physical atributes. Aka winning the gene lottery.

I think Kuzmenko might be one. Or he might just be so set in his ways that he cant learn new ways to practice and play(defence within a system).

But I would need a TON of evidence to actually believe that not working hard enough is what is holding any NHL regular back.

A ton.

So I would say its a hypothesis that you present but its pretty out there.

I feel great actually.

I feel fine because his play is supporting my position.

Your position is that you hate Elias Pettersson.

Is there more to the position?

He’s not the dynamic 100 point player you think he is.

He has been that player when healthy.

Currently he is the player I am talking about.

He is struggling.

Im not sure what player you think he is.

You can’t pay people based on past play for 8 years. That’s insane

You kind of have to pay the players based on merit...

 

[CanucksSayEh]

What are you talking about dude? The Bruce bump continued the next season when Skinny had his 102 pts in 2022-2023. Rick coached the canucks for the last 36 games and Bruce coached the canucks for the first 46 games of that season.

Uh, that's what I said...

The Bruce 'bump' has always referred to the teams record. The bump season was 21-22. They nosedived early 22-23.
EP's best play, was the 2nd half of 22-23, mostly under Tocchet.

EP's ups and downs didn't really follow the coaching changes at all, and most of our players, have had career years, or near career years, under his tenure. I do think his no shot 'systems' are an issue though, and don't get me started on the PP.

 

[Lenny Levino]

Pettersson play hasn’t been good for a year now, it can’t all be blamed on an injury.

Why not? Tendinitis will last for years/life unless you rest and let it heal.

Here's a good breakdown:

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Why not? Tendinitis will last for years/life unless you rest and let it heal.

Here's a good breakdown:

They know how it works by now. It just doesnt seem to matter.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Decided to take another look at Pettersson’s scoring woes by the numbers. He’s got 30 points in 42 games this season, but if he were scoring at a 90-100 point pace he should have around 45-50, meaning he’s about 15-20 points behind where you’d hope he’d be. Of that, you’d expect about 6-7 more even strength goals, 4-5 more even strength assists, and 5-6 more PP assists.

Of that:

- Pettersson’s on-ice xGF is down about 5 xGF compared to his last three seasons. Since his xGF% is unchanged, it’s been offset by allowing fewer opportunities against. That is likely a system / conservative play issue, and has likely cost him 3-4 points this season, consistent with the drop off in assists.

- Pettersson’s on-ice and individual SH% are way down. For his on-ice SH%, if he were at his average rate the last few seasons he’d have 5 more assists. If his SH% were at his career average he’d have 2 more goals. Often percentages can be an indicator of bad luck, but Pettersson has always been a huge positive outlier for so long that it could also be a skill/play/system/linemate issue. For his assists at least, it is mostly his second assists that are down, which suggests it is more likely not a skill issue but it’s not strong one way or another.

- Pettersson is about 2 individual xGF behind where he would otherwise be, which is also contributing to his reduced goal scoring. Notably, he’s right on track with the last three seasons in terms of generating high danger chances for himself. This is basically directly tied to him taking fewer low and medium danger chances, which seems reasonable to attribute to being a system-related effect.

- As I noted in the last thread, Pettersson is basically in line with his career norms for PPG. But his assists are way down, about 5-6 behind where he should be. Notably his first assists are only 1 behind where his pace should be, but he’s 4 behind on secondary assists. Pettersson looks pretty weak as a primary playmaker on the PP and looks like he is being hurt by Miller’s decline in PP productivity.

On the whole, if Pettersson had 18 more points he’d be on pace for 94 points. Of that, about a third of the difference compared to his current pace looks to pretty clearly be related to the team’s system / playing low event hockey. That knocks off about 10-12 points from Pettersson’s full season projection.

Another third is connected to his playmaking on the PP. Pettersson has never put up huge assist numbers there so it may just be a limitation in his game, and it may not rebound without more help.

The final third is his percentages caving in. That seems to me to be the mushy middle where the question is how much is this a skill / play issue versus bad luck/system/teammates. The fact that the biggest decline is in his secondary assists suggests that something other than skill / play is at least contributing.

Nice breakdown, but can you source your information? (notably, your pre and post decline information)


Also, have you seen this:

Considering most other statistics show Pettersson is actually doing better rate wise in almost everywhere besides Rush Attempts [Rush chances/60 dropped for him from 0.35 to 0.16]

Our amount of rush chances for per game is down even more than it was last year (32nd both seasons btw), and our shooting percentage on Rush Chances fell from #1 in the league to league average. [Pre and Post ASG]

 

[PuckMunchkin]

FFS it's not Tocchets fault. It's not the teams fault.

Of course the system is hurting his production.

Sure the D and linemates are responsible for some of the reductions in scoring but great players elevate everyone else's games. That is the problem here.

Of course the team is hurting his production.

Nice to see him putting in some extra work and showing he cares to get it turned around

Of course he cares.

 

[Raistlin]

Trading EP will be the single most foolish thing this management team can do, something the in the 50+ years history, the franchise has done only one other time. Draft a ppg 1C that can play defense. Trading him for parts is not something you do when you have a hart worthy 1D playing at the top of his game. Commit to building with QH and EP and ride it out. The fans have patience.

 

[Bobby9]

They know how it works by now. It just doesnt seem to matter.

What injury? The player and staff have said hes fine.

How can you continue to tell us whats wrong with somebody when the person youre talking about says theyre fine?

 

[Jakey53]

Then the problem isn’t Ricks system, the problem is in the D man the management group gave him. I know this isn’t popular to say but I think we have a great coaching staff, Rick and Adam are cup winners and solid NHLers, we also have the Sedins kicking around. If the problem is a weak group on D that we need to hold our offence back then management needs to give Tocchet better D man to work with.

Ask Coyote fans what they think of RT and his coaching. You won't get a positive answer, that's for sure.

 

[Ernie]

Decided to take another look at Pettersson’s scoring woes by the numbers. He’s got 30 points in 42 games this season, but if he were scoring at a 90-100 point pace he should have around 45-50, meaning he’s about 15-20 points behind where you’d hope he’d be. Of that, you’d expect about 6-7 more even strength goals, 4-5 more even strength assists, and 5-6 more PP assists.

Of that:

- Pettersson’s on-ice xGF is down about 5 xGF compared to his last three seasons. Since his xGF% is unchanged, it’s been offset by allowing fewer opportunities against. That is likely a system / conservative play issue, and has likely cost him 3-4 points this season, consistent with the drop off in assists.

- Pettersson’s on-ice and individual SH% are way down. For his on-ice SH%, if he were at his average rate the last few seasons he’d have 5 more assists. If his SH% were at his career average he’d have 2 more goals. Often percentages can be an indicator of bad luck, but Pettersson has always been a huge positive outlier for so long that it could also be a skill/play/system/linemate issue. For his assists at least, it is mostly his second assists that are down, which suggests it is more likely not a skill issue but it’s not strong one way or another.

- Pettersson is about 2 individual xGF behind where he would otherwise be, which is also contributing to his reduced goal scoring. Notably, he’s right on track with the last three seasons in terms of generating high danger chances for himself. This is basically directly tied to him taking fewer low and medium danger chances, which seems reasonable to attribute to being a system-related effect.

- As I noted in the last thread, Pettersson is basically in line with his career norms for PPG. But his assists are way down, about 5-6 behind where he should be. Notably his first assists are only 1 behind where his pace should be, but he’s 4 behind on secondary assists. Pettersson looks pretty weak as a primary playmaker on the PP and looks like he is being hurt by Miller’s decline in PP productivity.

On the whole, if Pettersson had 18 more points he’d be on pace for 94 points. Of that, about a third of the difference compared to his current pace looks to pretty clearly be related to the team’s system / playing low event hockey. That knocks off about 10-12 points from Pettersson’s full season projection.

Another third is connected to his playmaking on the PP. Pettersson has never put up huge assist numbers there so it may just be a limitation in his game, and it may not rebound without more help.

The final third is his percentages caving in. That seems to me to be the mushy middle where the question is how much is this a skill / play issue versus bad luck/system/teammates. The fact that the biggest decline is in his secondary assists suggests that something other than skill / play is at least contributing.

I like the optimism but..

The lack of production could also be because he just isn't driving play. He's tenuous and sitting back. His instincts always have him in good defensive position so his xGA hasn't suffered.

I think the tell is that he's been cold for two very extensive periods with one hot period in between. I don't know the exact statistical likelihood of a 90-100 point player having a 4 points in 15 game stretch, but it's probably not high.

 

[Lenny Levino]

What injury? The player and staff have said hes fine.

How can you continue to tell us whats wrong with somebody when the person youre talking about says theyre fine?

Injury is the only thing that explains going from 94th percentile in speed to less than 50th percentile. Being in a bad mood does not cause that.

Imagine you're going to the gym regularly and can deadlift 400 pounds. Now you get in an argument with your wife/brother/colleague. Are you saying you can only lift 250 pounds now?

It's like saying Usain Bolt read Schopenhauer and now can only run 100m in 14 seconds instead of 9.58s. Reality doesn't work that way.

 

[Bobby9]

Injury is the only thing that explains going from 94th percentile in speed to less than 50th percentile. Being in a bad mood does not cause that.

Imagine you're going to the gym regularly and can deadlift 400 pounds. Now you get in an argument with your wife/brother/colleague. Are you saying you can only lift 250 pounds now?

It's like saying Usain Bolt read Schopenhauer and now can only run 100m in 14 seconds instead of 9.58s. Reality doesn't work that way.

Reality works that way all the time. When people are unhappy theyre unmotivated. I go to the gym 6 days a week. My mood absolutely affects my lifts.

He has said he is not injured, but we do know he is unhappy.

Why don't you want to listen to the person youre speaking for?

 

[pitseleh]

Nice breakdown, but can you source your information? (notably, your pre and post decline information)

This is all via the player index on Natural Stat Trick. It’s not “post decline” - this is just comparing his 24/25 ES (not 5v5) and PP numbers to his prior two to three seasons.

Also, have you seen this:

Considering most other statistics show Pettersson is actually doing better rate wise in almost everywhere besides Rush Attempts [Rush chances/60 dropped for him from 0.35 to 0.16]

Our amount of rush chances for per game is down even more than it was last year (32nd both seasons btw), and our shooting percentage on Rush Chances fell from #1 in the league to league average. [Pre and Post ASG]

I saw it. I agree the drop off in rush chances is likely a big contributor to some of the things I identified in my post, especially the drop off in pace of generation.

But it doesn’t explain the difference in results between this year and post-decline last year. Pettersson’s xGF rates stayed the same last year post-February 1 (3.06 pre, versus 3.02 per 60 post). This year they are way down (2.46). That’s why I focused on this year.

I also used ES not 5v5 since you’re going to miss some scoring if you use the latter.

 

[rypper]

 

[pitseleh]

I like the optimism but..

The lack of production could also be because he just isn't driving play. He's tenuous and sitting back. His instincts always have him in good defensive position so his xGA hasn't suffered.

It’s more than his defensive results just having not suffered though - they are improved substantially, even compared to last year when he had a much better defence behind him. That to me says it’s a conscious trade-off.

I think the tell is that he's been cold for two very extensive periods with one hot period in between. I don't know the exact statistical likelihood of a 90-100 point player having a 4 points in 15 game stretch, but it's probably not high.

For sure. Part of what the numbers show is that Pettersson is probably not a 90-100 point player for this current team/coaching staff, even if his play was at the level of his best, so the answer is he is not currently (though may be in a different situation).

The question is whether he can he be an 80-85 point player if the SH% regression is luck and he can improve his playmaking results on the PP. I think that helps focus the questions about his play.

 

[Ernie]

For sure. Part of what the numbers show is that Pettersson is probably not a 90-100 point player for this current team/coaching staff, even if his play was at the level of his best, so the answer is he is not currently (though may be in a different situation).

The question is whether he can he be an 80-85 point player if the SH% regression is luck and he can improve his playmaking results on the PP. I think that helps focus the questions about his play.

Can you think of any similar situations with star players, where their numbers downgrade due to playing in defensive oriented systems?

If you and @Vector teamed up on this, could be a decent CanucksArmy post.

 

[pitseleh]

Can you think of any similar situations with star players, where their numbers downgrade due to playing in defensive oriented systems?

If you and @Vector teamed up on this, could be a decent CanucksArmy post.

Would have to look under the hood but Clayton Keller is the most obvious example. 54 points / 82 games under Tocchet, better than a PPG since Tocchet left.

 

[Lenny Levino]

Reality works that way all the time. When people are unhappy theyre unmotivated. I go to the gym 6 days a week. My mood absolutely affects my lifts.

He has said he is not injured, but we do know he is unhappy.

Why don't you want to listen to the person youre speaking for?

When did Petey confirm he isn't suffering from any lingering injuries?

I'm certain he is still suffering. You see him throw himself in front of pucks every game. The will is there. The ability simply isn't.

Here's two potential scenarios, maybe one of them is true:

1. Petey's knee started hurting in January. The Canucks medical team didn't confirm anything so he went to a private clinic and was diagnosed with Tendinitis and was advised to rest. However, he had just had a new contract put forward so instead of telling the medical team about it, he hoped it would go away on its own. Hence the hesitation about signing the new contract (he wanted to see if the injury went away first). Turns out it didn't go away. And now he's hesitant about complaining about it because that would just prove that he lied or covered up his injury during the contract negotiations.

2. The Canucks' medical team/head Doctor is a quack who believe all illnesses (especially chronic pain-type illnesses) are psychological. A lot of Doctors actually believe this. A relative of mine suffered from back pain for a long time and saw a Doctor who claimed it was "all in his head". 3-4 months later he couldn't take the pain anymore and went to another Doctor. Turned out he had cancer all along, stage 4. Was dead soon after.

Don't forget that medical malpractice is the #1 or #2 cause of death in the United States. It's probably worse in Canada. And given the Canucks' history of treating injuries, it wouldn't surprise me at all that their head medical Doctor has declared that "tendinitis" is a fake illness caused by stress or depression.

 

[sting101]

Of course the system is hurting his production.

Of course the team is hurting his production.

Of course he cares.

The "system" is not preventing him from having good games like last Saturday against the Oilers who were without McDavid or a complete no show against TB while Point Guentzel and Kucherov outclassed him by a mile and many others. An 11.6m player is expected to be going toe to toe with these types and elevating others

There is consistency issues. Engagement "moving his feet" issues. I concede the tendinitis issues and hope that most if not all of this is a bi product of it.

You say "of course he cares" but there have been reports of him not even really wanting to play hockey and that his dad flew over to talk to him to get his head right and get committed. When you see his body language disconnect and inconsistent efforts it concludes that he's not "all in" all the time and caring to the degree GMs Coaches and fans feel comfortable with it.

I posted that the team was hurting his productivity. But... to be on pace for 54pts is not simply explained away as a team or system issue. On that....Debrusk hasn't helped stylistically but he is better than Mikhayev. He needs a Kuzmenko. I think Lekk is the guy but he needs time. He hasn't shined with Boeser either in awhile and previously those 2 had produced magic. It's not just line mates. He does get to play with the world best defenseman somewhat which is not something Marner gets to do? Yes 2 pairs are problematic this year but one is as good as it gets. And he gets Hughes for every PP

Part of the problem here when discussing EP40 is the willingness to just make everyone and everything around him the scapegoat.

There are easily explained drops from 100-110pt player to 75-85pt player due to systems line mates and defenceman that are dreck but more than any of that is just how he looks and how much he drives play. He can't be a non existent force on many nights and a negative value asset but that's the reality currently

The team has been built to be in a contention window. He's 13% of the cap. He will bounce back but what is his ultimate upside now? What happens when he gets hurt again because he will? Can you win a championship and is he durable tough enough to get through 4 rounds? Can him and Miller co exist?

My take..Year one of the window he was unable to step up and played poorly. He's a negative value cap hit currently. Still believe he can be a 100-110pt Selke level player all things perfect and erase the above. Problem is things rarely are and he's temperamental which is a concern for his next injury and how he will be able to deal with it. Odds are not good being able to get through 4 rounds and stay effective physically. Unfortunately the last one is a NO right now.

Most including myself would prefer the younger more level headed and more talented player. But the answers to the questions remain ambiguous at best

 

[rypper]

 

[Bleach Clean]

This is all via the player index on Natural Stat Trick. It’s not “post decline” - this is just comparing his 24/25 ES (not 5v5) and PP numbers to his prior two to three seasons.

I saw it. I agree the drop off in rush chances is likely a big contributor to some of the things I identified in my post, especially the drop off in pace of generation.

But it doesn’t explain the difference in results between this year and post-decline last year. Pettersson’s xGF rates stayed the same last year post-February 1 (3.06 pre, versus 3.02 per 60 post). This year they are way down (2.46). That’s why I focused on this year.

I also used ES not 5v5 since you’re going to miss some scoring if you use the latter.

With those parameters in mind, Miller has seen a greater delta going from 3.42 xGF/60 (back half last year) to 2.69 xGF/60 (this year) = 0.73

Pettersson's delta is 3.02 xGF/60 to 2.46 xGF/60 = 0.56

Digging further, here are the xGF deltas for Garland and Boeser to compare:

Back half 2024:
Garland = 3.24
Boeser = 2.92

2025 Season:
Garland = 2.55
Boeser = 2.69

Delta:
Garland = 0.69
Boeser = 0.23

Interesting aside: Debrusk went from 2.84 xGF (back of last year) to 2.41 xGF here.

That's the team's top4 forwards all having a decline in xGF/60 from the back half of last year to this year, with Miller and Garland having the greatest delta.

Now pair this with Rush Attempts Conversion dropping from 1st to 16th for the team, most of their forwards declining in Rush Attempts/60 overall, and their HDCFs/60 dropping from 4th (back half) to 31st 5v5 this year, would it be fair to conclude that most of secondary offense is lost from the rush?

This would explain the A2s Pettersson is missing. It would also explain why most forwards have seen a drop in their expected GF.