Player Discussion Elias Pettersson - Please, Be Civil

[rypper]

Petterson could be the worst signing in Canucks history?

If this is his play for the contract probably

"Hello friends"

 

[IslandBeast]

I said many times that he would be bought out by 2028. I think it might be 2026.

This is a catastrophically bad signing. Might be on par with the Nurse contract

Show some respect to nurse. I saw him wheel the puck up and down the ice a few times tonight and roughed some of our guys up in a scrum.

He was 10x better than Petey tonight

 

[beachcomber]

7 years ago. I don't know what the infatuation is with him at this point? At 5-7 million, no problem but they have to get out from under that contract because he isn't going to live up to it. If he is getting paid like Barkov or Point then it is reasonable to hope that he would play the same here but he is clearly a couple of tiers below those guys.

 

[CokenoPepsi]

View attachment 966302
"Hello friends"

Doesn't Elias make double his salary and for longer years?

 

[Lenny Levino]

If he is getting paid like Barkov or Point then it is reasonable to hope that he would play the same here but he is clearly a couple of tiers below those guys.

I wouldn't say it is "clear". He's been elite during his whole time in the NHL except for the last year. He's likely injured. I would give him one more off season to get back in shape.

 

[TropicOfNoReturn]

I wouldn't say it is "clear". He's been elite during his whole time in the NHL except for the last year. He's likely injured. I would give him one more off season to get back in shape.

We can't wait for a whole offseason. His NMC kicks in July 1.
If his play continues like this through the end of this season, management absolutely needs to trade him, before July 1 - assuming there are still willing trade partners out there.

 

[rypper]

Doesn't Elias make double his salary and for longer years?

No.

8 vs 6 years.

13.8% vs 8.2% of cap.

In his 5 years in Vancouver before the trade, he didn't score 100 points. In 5 years! He didn't crest 30 points in any of his seasons. Pettersson is there at the halfway point. Pettersson will likely get to 60% ish of his total scoring in one down year.

Eriksson floated around, didn't give a shit. Last of to show up for practice, first one to leave. Even when he's not scoring, Pettersson isn't hurting you on the ice.

 

[Cancuks]

He's gotta go. My worst fear is now management trading Miller, Boeser and then thinking paying $14 million to Marner or Rantanen will be the answer to EP's struggles. Then we'll have two boat anchor contracts.

 

[Bobby9]

No.

8 vs 6 years.

13.8% vs 8.2% of cap.

In his 5 years in Vancouver before the trade, he didn't score 100 points. In 5 years! He didn't crest 30 points in any of his seasons. Pettersson is there at the halfway point. Pettersson will likely get to 60% ish of his total scoring in one down year.

Eriksson floated around, didn't give a shit. Last of to show up for practice, first one to leave. Even when he's not scoring, Pettersson isn't hurting you on the ice.

Debatable. As somebody who is expected to be a driver his lack of scoring or any positive impact absolutely hurts the team

 

[supercanuck]

He seems to have forgotten how he could best affect the game. His "biggest" plays the last year are his butt checks, and his defensive work. Hopefully the 4 Nations with his old coach will help him remember what he does best.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

Replies:

- It's in management's best interest to re-sign Pettersson as early and as for as long as possible. Franchise players in his position usually re-sign in the summer of first eligibility (Draistaitl this year). So yes, his timeline caused a lot of problems. But he was aware of those problems and still chose to adhere to it. He lacked awareness on the noise that would result. Therefore, our first conclusion, sans any earlier trade request chatter, has to be that the timeline was at issue, not that he wanted out.

- How were the Leafs perceived to have given in to Matthews and Marner on term? Would it not have been better for both to re-sign for 8 years at the highest possible AAV? (to get the most money possible)... Do you see where I'm going with this?

- In the summer of 2023-24, the projected number for Pettersson per radio/pods was around $10m~. I recall Dhaliwal talking about this. Then Pettersson torches the league until about the end of January, and they were talking $12m+ AAV. Simply waiting drew up his AAV. There was method here. Then, Nylander signed for $11.5m AAV. At the TDL, Pettersson re-signs for $100k more. Same term. This is no mere coincidence. Nylander too had a timeline.

- Remember, there was trade chatter before Miller's NTC had kicked in on his 8 year deal too. They were confident enough to keep him, and did, and if not for this recent Pettersson/Miller drama, and poor play, they probably do keep both. The key information here is that the trade chatter died down for the one that showed continued commitment. They have reacted to it in a positive manner.

To sum:

1. It's not the money - He could have gotten more overall if he angled for a percentage of the cap and shortened his term. Hell, wait for the offersheet.
2. He did not want a trade - Dhaliwal/Friedman/Seravelli/Shah all maintained that no trade desire or request was entertained or made. No red flags.
3. His timeline - Was most important to him, even when it worked against the team. If his agents knew better (they did), they should have gotten him to the table earlier (they did not). That's on Brisson.

In the end, a lack of commitment to sign when management wants is not tantamount to requesting a trade, though it could lead to one as we saw with the CAR rumour at the deadline.

- Right, Petey's need to stubbornly sticks to his timeline and creating a circus was unnecessary, if his intention has always to stay in Vancouver if the team is good and/or improving. Or, he could just be using the "timeline" as an excuse to see if he can get out if he wanted to. I really cannot believe he is that oblivious, that uncooperating, or that stubborn, that's why my conclusion was that he never wanted to stay, or at least he never really care one way or another. I can see that we won't agree on this issue though, and while it was interesting getting a different perspective on this, we seem to have beaten this horse to death a million times now, I think it might be a good time to move on?

- Ah I see what you are getting at with the Leafs players, that make sense. But M&Ms are the exception rather than the rule though, no? Most top young players coming out of their ELC signs for max term, unless of course your team is capped out and forced to take a bridge?

- Was it just $10m in the summer of 2023-24? I thought I remember that Petey's camp was eyeing Pastrnak as a comparable and looking for something in the $11m range? He certainly squeezed every single dime out of the Nucks though, so, good for him. I guess there was a method to his madness.

 

[Icebreakers]

The shitty thing about Petey's contract is usually when they sign a contract its eiter have they have shown to be that kind of player for a while or you can tell by their progression that they will be.

Petey has never been worth 11 million dollars in any of his 7 seasons in the NHL besides maybe that one year he had 102 points in a meaningless year. He also hasnt shown he will be that kind of player moving forward. Now he has to replicate that ever year for 8 years? Its not gonna happen .

 

[arttk]

The shitty thing about Petey's contract is usually when they sign a contract its eiter have they have shown to be that kind of player for a while or you can tell by their progression that they will be.

Petey has never been worth 11 million dollars in any of his 7 seasons in the NHL besides maybe that one year he had 102 points in a meaningless year. He also hasnt shown he will be that kind of player moving forward. Now he has to replicate that ever year for 8 years? Its not gonna happen .

i find it amazing that people don't remember Petey last season pre-injury.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Doesn't Elias make double his salary and for longer years?

He is also even at his worst twice the player

- Right, Petey's need to stubbornly sticks to his timeline and creating a circus was unnecessary, if his intention has always to stay in Vancouver if the team is good and/or improving. Or, he could just be using the "timeline" as an excuse to see if he can get out if he wanted to. I really cannot believe he is that oblivious, that uncooperating, or that stubborn, that's why my conclusion was that he never wanted to stay, or at least he never really care one way or another. I can see that we won't agree on this issue though, and while it was interesting getting a different perspective on this, we seem to have beaten this horse to death a million times now, I think it might be a good time to move on?

Or he didnt want to discuss contract during the season.

- Ah I see what you are getting at with the Leafs players, that make sense. But M&Ms are the exception rather than the rule though, no? Most top young players coming out of their ELC signs for max term, unless of course your team is capped out and forced to take a bridge?

Long good for team.
Short good for player.

- Was it just $10m in the summer of 2023-24? I thought I remember that Petey's camp was eyeing Pastrnak as a comparable and looking for something in the $11m range? He certainly squeezed every single dime out of the Nucks though, so, good for him. I guess there was a method to his madness.

He gave the nucks a paycut and didnt need to sign full years.

 

[Bobby9]

i find it amazing that people don't remember Petey last season pre-injury.

Everybody remembers. What makes you think we dont?

The problem is you're paying for 8 years of that consistently and since signing his new contract he has been that for a 10 game streak this year.

Players are assets. He is a very over paid inconsistent and non impactful asset 90% of the time

 

[Bleach Clean]

- Right, Petey's need to stubbornly sticks to his timeline and creating a circus was unnecessary, if his intention has always to stay in Vancouver if the team is good and/or improving. Or, he could just be using the "timeline" as an excuse to see if he can get out if he wanted to. I really cannot believe he is that oblivious, that uncooperating, or that stubborn, that's why my conclusion was that he never wanted to stay, or at least he never really care one way or another. I can see that we won't agree on this issue though, and while it was interesting getting a different perspective on this, we seem to have beaten this horse to death a million times now, I think it might be a good time to move on?

- Ah I see what you are getting at with the Leafs players, that make sense. But M&Ms are the exception rather than the rule though, no? Most top young players coming out of their ELC signs for max term, unless of course your team is capped out and forced to take a bridge?

- Was it just $10m in the summer of 2023-24? I thought I remember that Petey's camp was eyeing Pastrnak as a comparable and looking for something in the $11m range? He certainly squeezed every single dime out of the Nucks though, so, good for him. I guess there was a method to his madness.

Response:

- We can move on. To me, there was more to suggest that it was simply a delay than anything deeper. If you've got the time, look into an old Dreger/JP Barry interview where Barry talks about having to reengage Pettersson. That he wants to sign, but they are in a holding pattern. The hint was there too.

- Matthews and Marner are the exceptions in that they really angle for cash. Generally, top players give up term to the team unless the team is capped out (as you said). This allows the team to accrue surplus value on the deal as the cap rises.

- The Pastrnak comparison came later. I'll try to dig up the old radio hit. Thing is, Pettersson didn't squeeze every single dime out of VAN. He could have pushed for 14% ($12.3m+) on a 4-5 year deal, then go 15%+ of a $100m cap for 6-7 years.

Example:

Money Grab: $12.32m AAV by 4 years = $49.28m + ($15m AAV by 7 years) = $154,280,000.00

What he did: $11.6m AAV by 8 years = $92.80m + ($15m AAV by 3 years) = $137,800,000.00

A difference of $16.48m~ left on the table (rough idea)

 

[sandwichbird2023]

He is also even at his worst twice the player

Or he didnt want to discuss contract during the season.

Long good for team.
Short good for player.

He gave the nucks a paycut and didnt need to sign full years.

$11.6m was a paycut!? Who were his comparables and what was his "market value"?

Its true he didn't need to sign full years, but I bet he is happy he did though. Can you imagine had he sign for shorter term (say 4 years), what kind of number he would be staring down if he doesn't rebound from his 12-months-and-counting slump?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

$11.6m was a paycut!? Who were his comparables and what was his "market value"?

His compareables were other 24yr old 100p selke candidat franchise centers.

Its true he didn't need to sign full years, but I bet he is happy he did though. Can you imagine had he sign for shorter term (say 4 years), what kind of number he would be staring down if he doesn't rebound from his 12-months-and-counting slump?

For less.

But its extremely unlikely he wont bounce back.

 

[Bleach Clean]

$11.6m was a paycut!? Who were his comparables and what was his "market value"?

Its true he didn't need to sign full years, but I bet he is happy he did though. Can you imagine had he sign for shorter term (say 4 years), what kind of number he would be staring down if he doesn't rebound from his 12-months-and-counting slump?

You have to take the longer sample view here. Throw this year out and he's 13th among centres in P/GP since 2018-19. Over 407 games. Right next to Aho, Eichel and Miller.

I don't want to display the full paid content, but his model value last year was $12.5m on the nose and he had the best efficiency on the roster (even greater than Norris winner Hughes):

 

[sandwichbird2023]

His compareables were other 24yr old 100p selke candidat franchise centers.

For less.

But its extremely unlikely he wont bounce back.

So a guy like Barkov then? I can't think of any other player off the top of my head.

He and his agent did really well though, I have to say. Netting a contract with the 5th highest cap hit for a player that has over 100 points once in 6 seasons, higher than other more established star players, in the range of the best players in the league. If that is taking a pay cut, I wonder how much you would've offered him if you were in Allvin's position.

I wish I can be as optimistic as you are about Petey's ability to bounce back, I really do, but 12 months (and counting) is a long time for a player to struggle. You seem to work with pro-athletes, how long in your opinion does it take for somebody to recover from knee tendinitis? I'm not being snarky or anything, I sincerely wants to know because I really need some kind of timeline so that I can have something to look forward to.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

You have to take the longer sample view here. Throw this year out and he's 13th among centres in P/GP since 2018-19. Over 407 games. Right next to Aho, Eichel and Miller.

I don't want to display the full paid content, but his model value last year was $12.5m on the nose and he had the best efficiency on the roster (even greater than Norris winner Hughes):


View attachment 966513

Hmm...my conclusion is I don't know how much faith I have in this model then. Paying him $12.5m would've been insane, considering MacKinnon signed for the same dollar amount just 1 year prior. Nobody, not even the most diehard Petey fan, would put those 2 players in the same value-tier, even if you assume Petey improves upon his 2022-23 season.

You listed Aho, Eichel and Miller as his peers in terms of P/GP, I would've paid him in that range myself, and maybe add a little bit on top due to context (Aho/Eichel's contracts were signed awhile ago, Miller is older).

 

[Bobby9]

You seem to work with pro-athletes, how long in your opinion does it take for somebody to recover from knee tendinitis? I'm not being snarky or anything, I sincerely wants to know because I really need some kind of timeline so that I can have something to look forward to.

Or a constantly strained iliac crest muscle. Asking for a friend

 

[racerjoe]

Hmm...my conclusion is I don't know how much faith I have in this model then. Paying him $12.5m would've been insane, considering MacKinnon signed for the same dollar amount just 1 year prior. Nobody, not even the most diehard Petey fan, would put those 2 players in the same value-tier, even if you assume Petey improves upon his 2022-23 season.

You listed Aho, Eichel and Miller as his peers in terms of P/GP, I would've paid him in that range myself, and maybe add a little bit on top due to context (Aho/Eichel's contracts were signed awhile ago, Miller is older).

I that one year the cap outlook changed drastically though…. Also look at cap % instead of cap dollars.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Hmm...my conclusion is I don't know how much faith I have in this model then. Paying him $12.5m would've been insane, considering MacKinnon signed for the same dollar amount just 1 year prior. Nobody, not even the most diehard Petey fan, would put those 2 players in the same value-tier, even if you assume Petey improves upon his 2022-23 season.

You listed Aho, Eichel and Miller as his peers in terms of P/GP, I would've paid him in that range myself, and maybe add a little bit on top due to context (Aho/Eichel's contracts were signed awhile ago, Miller is older).

Timing and age matter here.

Eichel is likely getting $13m~ in 1.5 years. He took 12.58% of the cap on his 2nd contract, while Pettersson took 9.02% on his 2nd contract. And it's a better AAV now because it went max term...

Mackinnon also signed for 15.09% of the cap a year ago. Nylander just signed a retirement deal for $11.5m AAV (13.07% of the cap)... Pettersson definitely left money on the table. Media guys were catching up to the model as Pettersson's year had progressed.

 

[Hodgy]

So a guy like Barkov then? I can't think of any other player off the top of my head.

He and his agent did really well though, I have to say. Netting a contract with the 5th highest cap hit for a player that has over 100 points once in 6 seasons, higher than other more established star players, in the range of the best players in the league. If that is taking a pay cut, I wonder how much you would've offered him if you were in Allvin's position.

I wish I can be as optimistic as you are about Petey's ability to bounce back, I really do, but 12 months (and counting) is a long time for a player to struggle. You seem to work with pro-athletes, how long in your opinion does it take for somebody to recover from knee tendinitis? I'm not being snarky or anything, I sincerely wants to know because I really need some kind of timeline so that I can have something to look forward to.

But the injury has almost become a moot point. Some think he still has an injury which is causing the poor play, some think he doesn't, some think his poor play is a carry over from his varied training that was caused by his injury, some don't. Some point to his Edge speed numbers as evidence of an injury, some point out that these numbers just show he is performing poorly and that he was slow during his last slump, and some point to his Edge shot numbers suggesting he has another injury, but some point out that he's still hitting similar highs and that the lack of number of shots is more a result of his poor play. Some think he is competing, and some don't, some point out that his own GM has suggested that he isn't competing.

You can go on and on and on, and we have!

But again, it may all be a moot point, because is there really a reality where it is acceptable for an 11.6 million dollar player to score 58 points over the last calendar year? Like, even with an injury or two, I'd still expect a better performance. If you have an injury that is causing that type of decline in performance then why are you even playing? And sure, Pettersson hasn't played with the best linemates, or always played with the best defensemen, but again, does it even matter? Does it justify an 11.6 million dollar to play at a 62 point pace for a calendar year?