Player Discussion Elias Pettersson - Please, Be Civil

[Kryten]

Actually, thinking about this again, can you lay out your math?

There is a 25% chance a Western team makes the playoffs, and a 19% chance an Eastern team does. That still adds up to 44%.

maybe it adds up to a 22% chance

 

[Ernie]

21/6 means 131% chance, so more than "guaranteed" every 3 years. But every season is 7/16, 44%.

Every season has the same number of 7 Canadian teams in a 32 team league. The odds don't change to 131% at any given point.

Adding up coin flips is the fallacy. You don't "add" or "sum" odds.

I don't know what to say - I don't think I can explain it any simpler than the coin flips example. I would recommend taking a basic statistics course if you're interested in learning more.

maybe it adds up to a 22% chance

That's the odds of actually winning the cup.

Every team has a 1/32 chance. So if you sum up the Canadian teams, they would have a 7/32 chance of winning, or 22%, in any given year. That means a Canadian team should win every 4 to 5 years, on average.

 

[Kryten]

I don't know what to say - I don't think I can explain it any simpler than the coin flips example. I would recommend taking a basic statistics course if you're interested in learning more.



That's the odds of actually winning the cup.

Every team has a 1/32 chance. So if you sum up the Canadian teams, they would have a 7/32 chance of winning, or 22%, in any given year. That means a Canadian team should win every 4 to 5 years, on average.

And only 1 team from each conference makes the finals. I just dont get how a US team has a 156% chance of making the finals and a Canadian team has a 44% chance.

 

[Ernie]

And only 1 team from each conference makes the finals. I just dont get how a US team has a 156% chance of making the finals and a Canadian team has a 44% chance.

There are two spots. There is a 78% chance of a US team being in the Western spot, and there is also 78% chance of a different US team being in the Eastern spot. Conversely, there is a 22% chance of a Canadian team being in the West spot, and a 22% chance of Canadian team being in the East spot.

(though this is not technically true because there are 4 Canadian teams in the West and 3 Canadian teams in the East, but the overall odds are the same)

Anyways, I'm off to bed. I hope that this made sense at least somewhat.

 

[AzNightmare]

I don't know what to say - I don't think I can explain it any simpler than the coin flips example. I would recommend taking a basic statistics course if you're interested in learning more.

Imo... This is too elementary for a basic statistic course.. Lol.
It's literally why there is a term called Gambler's Fallacy.

You first say you're not taking any thing from previous seasons. Then you're using words like "add" and "summing". Lol.

Just because a Canadian team doesn't reach the final in year 1 doesn't increase the odds of a Canadian reaching it in the following year, and so forth. Every season is independent, just like every individual coin flip.

You're mistakenly viewing this as 1 set of 3 seasons, therefore every 3rd season should have a Canadian team's odd go up to 131% to reaching the final. Clearly this is not accurate, otherwise a ridiculous 131% would guarantee a Canadian team in the final every 3rd year, IRL.

Every season has a clean slate of the same 44% opportunity. It's why there can be long droughts of no Canadian teams, because 44% is not guaranteed, which reflects so IRL.

 

[Kryten]

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

 

[Ernie]

Imo... This is too elementary for a basic statistic course.. Lol.
It's literally why there is a term called Gambler's Fallacy.

You first say you're not taking any thing from previous seasons. Then you're using words like "add" and "summing". Lol.

Just because a Canadian team doesn't reach the final in year 1 doesn't increase the odds of a Canadian reaching it in the following year, and so forth. Every season is independent, just like every individual coin flip.

You're mistakenly viewing this as 1 set of 3 seasons, therefore every 3rd season should have a Canadian team's odd go up to 131% to reaching the final. Clearly this is not accurate, otherwise a ridiculous 131% would guarantee a Canadian team in the final every 3rd year, IRL.

Every season has a clean slate of the same 44% opportunity. It's why there can be long droughts of no Canadian teams, because 44% is not guaranteed, which reflects so IRL.

Ok, I'll throw this back to you: how many times should a Canadian team appear in the finals over a ten year period?

 

[Kryten]

Ok, I'll throw this back to you: how many times should a Canadian team appear in the finals over a ten year period?

Depends which decade

 

[Nick Lang]

Actually, thinking about this again, can you lay out your math?

There is a 25% chance a Western team makes the playoffs, and a 19% chance an Eastern team does. That still adds up to 44%.

I plugged the Eastern and Western % numbers (.18) and (.25) into a probability calculator to show:

The results: