Player Discussion Elias Pettersson - Please, Be Civil

[Kryten]

well, statistically you can add up the odds from each year to get the total for multiple years.

Maybe think about it his way:

We do a coin flip with a loonie, and whoever wins gets to keep it. That's 1/2 odds, or 50%. You win, and have $1.
We do it again. This time I win, and I have $1.
We do this 8 more times, each of us winning half of the flips.
You have $5, I have $5. You have added up the 1/2 odds 10 times to get $5.

I remember M2B doing this for our draft lotteries

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

What would have been even better is if they signed Pettersson long term after his ELC like he wanted instead of bridging him. Carolina is probably regretting not giving Necas a longer deal as well.

Definitely would of helped his trade value for now.

I mean Miller was unable to even lace the skates for a good portion of the season.

Sell high on him while you can!

Miller stood out in the playoffs way more than Pettersson did, at least Miller can drive a line unlike Pettersson.

 

[Ernie]

Definitely would of helped his trade value for now.

If you're ok with Miller getting cushy minutes and putting up a point per game for $8m, why would you want to trade Pettersson for putting up a similar amount in tougher minutes?

Something tells me it has nothing to do with his performance on the ice.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

If you're ok with Miller getting cushy minutes and putting up a point per game for $8m, why would you want to trade Pettersson for putting up a similar amount in tougher minutes?

Something tells me it has nothing to do with his performance on the ice.

Performance... It has everything to do with his performance, and being a soft baby, and only showing up for 10-20 mins of a 60 min game.

 

[Nick Lang]

Sure.

There are 2 spots in the finals for 32 teams. That's a 1/16 odds for each team.

There are 7 Canadian teams. Add all those odds together and you get 7/16 odds that one of them will be in the Finals in any given year, or 44%

Over two years, that becomes 14/16 odds . Over 3 years, 21/16.

I think fans underestimate how statistically unlikely that no Canadian team would win the cup over a 30 year period. All things being equal, there is about a 1 in 2500 chance that happens. That's beyond bad luck and speaks to something fundamentally broken.

Sure.

There are 2 spots in the finals for 32 teams. That's a 1/16 odds for each team.

There are 7 Canadian teams. Add all those odds together and you get 7/16 odds that one of them will be in the Finals in any given year, or 44%

Over two years, that becomes 14/16 odds . Over 3 years, 21/16.

I think fans underestimate how statistically unlikely that no Canadian team would win the cup over a 30 year period. All things being equal, there is about a 1 in 2500 chance that happens. That's beyond bad luck and speaks to something fundamentally broken.



You're right. I blotted that from my mind.

You're right. I blotted that from my mind.

I did a probability calculation of 4/16 (Western) and 3/16 (Eastern). The odds of 1 team or 2 Canadian teams making the final is .385 or 38% so you would expect one every 3 years or so.

The reason it's fundamentally broken is because Canadian franchises are addicted to chasing the playoffs with mediocre teams like what we just went through for the last 12 years. Instead of keeping draft picks and properly rebuilding we all keep barely making the playoffs or missing with decent but not great teams. Sacrificing valuable assets along the way.

Montreal is the first team in 30 years to properly attempt a bare bones rebuild. Ottawa has been half assing it for years, the Leafs are the Laffs, and the Western teams have been spinning in circles for decades hoping something clicks. Truth is none of the Canadian teams has been a powerhouse in the league for an extended period because of the public pressure and desire to compete each year.

 

[Kryten]

Performance... It has everything to do with his performance, and being a soft baby, and only showing up for 10-20 mins of a 60 min game.

But even Hughes only shows up for like 20 minutes a game

 

[Ernie]

Performance... It has everything to do with his performance, and being a soft baby, and only showing up for 10-20 mins of a 60 min game.

and there it is.

The guy who had to take stress leave is all good, but the guy who powered through and kept the team afloat is a soft baby.

MIght as well call him the third Sedin sister while you're at it.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

But even Hughes only shows up for like 20 minutes a game

Normally it's around 27-30 mins a game now

 

[Ernie]

I did a probability calculation of 4/16 (Western) and 3/16 (Eastern). The odds of 1 team or 2 Canadian teams making the final is .385 or 38% so you would expect one every 3 years or so.

The reason it's fundamentally broken is because Canadian franchises are addicted to chasing the playoffs with mediocre teams like what we just went through for the last 12 years. Instead of keeping draft picks and properly rebuilding we all keep barely making the playoffs or missing with decent but not great teams. Sacrificing valuable assets along the way.

Montreal is the first team in 30 years to properly attempt a bare bones rebuild. Ottawa has been half assing it for years, the Leafs are the Laffs, and the Western teams have been spinning in circles for decades hoping something clicks. Truth is none of the Canadian teams has been a powerhouse in the league for an extended period because of the public pressure and desire to compete each year.

Yeah, that's a fair modification. As was mentioned earlier, the teams being in the same divisions would have a minor effect as well, though less pronounced given the crossover between divisions. Would need to run a bunch of simulated seasons to get the true number.

 

[AzNightmare]

well, statistically you can add up the odds from each year to get the total for multiple years.

Maybe think about it his way:

We do a coin flip with a loonie, and whoever wins gets to keep it. That's 1/2 odds, or 50%. You win, and have $1.
We do it again. This time I win, and I have $1.
We do this 8 more times, each of us winning half of the flips.
You have $5, I have $5. You have added up the 1/2 odds 10 times to get $5.

That's basically Gambler's Fallacy. You don't add up odds from each year. Every year is independent, just like every coin flip. A coin flip is statistically 50% every flip, even if it's done 10 times. Just like the odds of a Canadian team making the finals is 7/16, even if it's over 10 seasons.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

and there it is.

The guy who had to take stress leave is all good, but the guy who powered through and kept the tea afloat is a soft baby.

MIght as well call him the third Sedin sister while you're at it.

Plus you brought up tougher minutes.... Who was matched up to shut down McDavid in the playoffs Miller or Pettersson.... And you think Pettersson plays the tougher minutes....

At least the Sedins figured out how to become stronger and tougher players in the NHL to be more effective, what's Pettersson's excuse...

How about his excuse from 3 seasons ago for why he had a slow start? I had a new stick, really...

 

[Ernie]

That's basically Gambler's Fallacy. You don't add up odds from each year. Every year is independent, just like every coin flip. A coin flip is statistically 50% every flip, even if it's done 10 times. Just like the odds of a Canadian team making the finals is 7/16, even if it's over 10 seasons.

Maybe try to read it through again and understand. It's not gambler's fallacy, it's summing the odds from each independent season.

 

[PuckMunchkin]

Miller stood out in the playoffs way more than Pettersson did, at least Miller can drive a line unlike Pettersson.

Well he should do that then.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Well he should do that then.

Miller's had 3 points in the last 2 games, how many points has Pettersson had? Where has he gone?

 

[Ernie]

Plus you brought up tougher minutes.... Who was matched up to shut down McDavid in the playoffs Miller or Pettersson.... And you think Pettersson plays the tougher minutes....

At least the Sedins figured out how to become stronger and tougher players in the NHL to be more effective, what's Pettersson's excuse...

How about his excuse from 3 seasons ago for why he had a slow start? I had a new stick, really...

Players have up and down seasons, that's just a fact of life.

The Sedins are unicorns, very few players have the career arc that they did.

As for the playoffs, McDavid had 8 ES points in 7 games, so not sure he was that effective in a shutdown role. Though that responsibility obviously has to be spread out amongst the other players, including Hughes, who didn't have a particularly strong playoffs either.

 

[Kryten]

Miller's had 3 points in the last 2 games, how many points has Pettersson had? Where has he gone?

Are they unique points or was Hughes in the building?

 

[AzNightmare]

I did a probability calculation of 4/16 (Western) and 3/16 (Eastern). The odds of 1 team or 2 Canadian teams making the final is .385 or 38% so you would expect one every 3 years or so.

The reason it's fundamentally broken is because Canadian franchises are addicted to chasing the playoffs with mediocre teams like what we just went through for the last 12 years. Instead of keeping draft picks and properly rebuilding we all keep barely making the playoffs or missing with decent but not great teams. Sacrificing valuable assets along the way.

Montreal is the first team in 30 years to properly attempt a bare bones rebuild. Ottawa has been half assing it for years, the Leafs are the Laffs, and the Western teams have been spinning in circles for decades hoping something clicks. Truth is none of the Canadian teams has been a powerhouse in the league for an extended period because of the public pressure and desire to compete each year.

That's a but a skewed though. There's 25 more American teams. They've also had their share of teams unable to win it for decades, but are we just going to focus on the US powerhouse teams?

It's fun to talk about statistical odds, but in reality, there isn't 7 Canadian contenders in a given season. And stronger teams will likely make an appearance or a repeat. The odds just aren't in Canada's favor with only 7 teams.

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Are they unique points or was Hughes in the building?

Kind of like the Blues game when Pettersson got a goal off a Blues stick, but only started playing with 10 mins left in the 3rd and was a no show for the first 50 mins of the game.

How come Pettersson only played roughly 15 mins last night and Miller played 19 mins?

 

[Ernie]

Miller stood out in the playoffs way more than Pettersson did, at least Miller can drive a line unlike Pettersson.

Quinn Hughes can drive a line. When Hughes isn't on the ice, Pettersson drives play better.

That's a but a skewed though. There's 25 more American teams. They've also had their share of teams unable to win it for decades, but are we just going to focus on the US powerhouse teams?

It's fun to talk about statistical odds, but in reality, there isn't 7 Canadian contenders in a given season. And stronger teams will likely make an appearance or a repeat. The odds just aren't in Canada's favor with only 7 teams.

Canadian teams should individually have the same odds of being a contender as US teams. If 4 teams are true contenders, one of them should be a Canadian team.

 

[AzNightmare]

Maybe try to read it through again and understand. It's not gambler's fallacy, it's summing the odds from each independent season.

The word "summing" already means you're using results from a previous source. Why would the odds increase to 21/16? Or is that not what you're saying?

 

[ChuckNorris4Cup]

Quinn Hughes can drive a line. When Hughes isn't on the ice, Pettersson drives play better.

Yes Quinn can he has no problem getting around guys, where Pettersson can't do that, he has to dump and chase because he can't drive a line, do you watch the games?

 

[Ernie]

The word "summing" already means you're using results from a previous source. Why would the odds increase to 21/16? Or is that not what you're saying?

No, I'm saying that over three seasons, that's the odds that you'll be in the finals in one of those 3 seasons. It's like adding up coin flips, like I laid out in the post earlier.

 

[Ernie]

Yes Quinn can he has no problem getting around guys, where Pettersson can't do that, he has to dump and chase because he can't drive a line, do you watch the games?

Quinn Hughes is an amazing player and if he wasn't on this team, they'd be a lottery team. That's not an exaggeration. Anyone who gets minutes with him is going to see a huge boost.

If you watched the games, you'd see that the defence (aside from Hughes) cannot make a first pass.

For a forward to make a successful zone entry, they need to have that first pass while they are at speed. If they try to skate it out of the zone themselves, they'll be trapped in the neutral zone and have to dump it in.

What else is happening is that defence is chipping it off the glass, and then it's a 50/50 battle in the neutral zone. Even if a Canucks forward wins that battle, they have to dump it in.

When Hughes is on the ice, he'll make a perfect tape to tape pass to a forward on the move, or if that's not available, he'll skate it in himself. You can't say enough about his ability to drive play regardless of who he's on the ice with. He's special.

 

[AzNightmare]

No, I'm saying that over three seasons, that's the odds that you'll be in the finals in one of those 3 seasons. It's like adding up coin flips, like I laid out in the post earlier.

21/6 means 131% chance, so more than "guaranteed" every 3 years. But every season is 7/16, 44%.

Every season has the same number of 7 Canadian teams in a 32 team league. The odds don't change to 131% at any given point.

Adding up coin flips is the fallacy. You don't "add" or "sum" odds.

 

[Ernie]

I did a probability calculation of 4/16 (Western) and 3/16 (Eastern). The odds of 1 team or 2 Canadian teams making the final is .385 or 38% so you would expect one every 3 years or so.

Actually, thinking about this again, can you lay out your math?

There is a 25% chance a Western team makes the playoffs, and a 19% chance an Eastern team does. That still adds up to 44%.