Ekblad vs Bennett vs Marchand

[Aksu]

Ive heard many takes on the cats situation and this one might be the worst one. You do not trade bobo with 1 year left on his contract. No one wants that 10mil and we don’t have another goalie.

Also 10 for bennet in florida? What are these guys smoking? 8 for marchand? What the hell?

 

[Aksu]

Ok armchair Zitos. Lets try our best here.

Lets say exactly 19mil in cap space. How could we keep all 3?

7.5 for Benny, 6.5 for ekky (or he is gone), that leaves 5 for Marchy. That might not do it.

1. Trade ERod for a back of pucks, that leaves room to keep Marchy
2. Make somekind of loop hole contract to Marchy with the bonuses so that the cap hit stays as low as possible or give him a 4-5 year contract and then eat the cap hit when the cap goes up in 1-2 years and when Bobo is gone
3. Let Ekky walk
4. LTIR chucky until olympics and then trade whoever is slacking

HFlorida, give me your best ideas

 

[Desert Panther]

Here’s my take…

IF we were going to sign all three, it’d be in one bomb dropped all at once.

Benny probably is done.. he probably says I’ll sign for X if we sign these guys.. I’d guess he gets 7 if we sign them, probably 8 if not.

Ekblad wants to stay, it’s obvious. He’d get the same deal as Forsling.. 5.75. He’s not getting more here.. no chance.

Marchand.. I just get the feeling that this is where we get creative. I’d guess he’d sign with us 3 years for 5, maybe 6.. but I think the catch here is that we’re going to add years at a million a year to lower the AAV.. then just buyout at whatever point.. just adding less that 500k a year for, well, awhile. But with the cap up, I don’t think we’d care. So say its 6x6x6x1x1x1x1x1x1.. That’s 2.875

So we’d have the three of them at 15.625.

Is that what’s going to happen? No clue, and probably doubtful. But that’s the way it could potentially get done.

I do however think it’s going to end up being just Bennett signed at something like 8x8 and we let the others walk. But until it happens, who knows!

Can't have such a disparity in salaries from 1st year to last year unfortunately.

Chaos is correct. Rules here are no more than a 35% drop year over year of a contract and the lowest value year has to be at least 50% of the highest value year.

I had suggested a front loaded deal earlier with him at 5 years with 13M in the first 3 and a 3.8M AAV. Prob not enough to get it done though. There is probably going to have to be some sort of bonus laden thing that gets thrown into the cap hit the following year. No doubt Zito is going to have to get creative here.

 

[KW]

Ok armchair Zitos. Lets try our best here.

Lets say exactly 19mil in cap space. How could we keep all 3?

7.5 for Benny, 6.5 for ekky (or he is gone), that leaves 5 for Marchy. That might not do it.

1. Trade ERod for a back of pucks, that leaves room to keep Marchy
2. Make somekind of loop hole contract to Marchy with the bonuses so that the cap hit stays as low as possible or give him a 4-5 year contract and then eat the cap hit when the cap goes up in 1-2 years and when Bobo is gone
3. Let Ekky walk
4. LTIR chucky until olympics and then trade whoever is slacking

HFlorida, give me your best ideas

#1 would be the easiest

#2 could work if there’s no rule on YoY increases, then with aav $6M*4 (fourth year because Marchy had four fingers up) could do $4, $8, $7, $5 or something like that, Bob’s $10 coming off for second year helps make it happen

#3 may become easiest if Ekky asks for 7 years at more than $42, also losing him won’t be as devastating as some think and he won’t be as hard to pseudo replace as some think… still I’d keep him at a reasonable cost

#4 latest feel on Chucky is he’s gonna be healthy, if not by start of season, then a month in at the latest

 

[Desert Panther]

Ok armchair Zitos. Lets try our best here.

Lets say exactly 19mil in cap space. How could we keep all 3?

7.5 for Benny, 6.5 for ekky (or he is gone), that leaves 5 for Marchy. That might not do it.

1. Trade ERod for a back of pucks, that leaves room to keep Marchy
2. Make somekind of loop hole contract to Marchy with the bonuses so that the cap hit stays as low as possible or give him a 4-5 year contract and then eat the cap hit when the cap goes up in 1-2 years and when Bobo is gone
3. Let Ekky walk
4. LTIR chucky until olympics and then trade whoever is slacking

HFlorida, give me your best ideas

There are other elements here not in your equation. Yes, $19M in cap space. But it's not solely those three guys. Still need to re-up/qualify Mackie as well as bring in the necessary minimum wage depth to fill out the team (Greer, Nosek, etc)

 

[BabyBennettov]

There are other elements here not in your equation. Yes, $19M in cap space. But it's not solely those three guys. Still need to re-up/qualify Mackie as well as bring in the necessary minimum wage depth to fill out the team (Greer, Nosek, etc)

We’re only missing a backup if we do a 20-skaters roster only… AND signing Mackie which would be the 13th forward !

It’s gonna be real tight !

 

[Dread Clawz]

If we go 8 years for Brad at 27M total (which is only 5M less than what's reported he'd get in free agency), broken down like this....4+4+4+4+3+3+2.5+2.5....that might get it done. The aav would be 3.375. maybe even throw in some bonuses that would create overages, as next year and after doesn't matter, it's only this year where it's gonna be tight for us.

So if we give Benny 8, Samo 1.5, Brad 3.375 , Nosek 800k, Ek 6.5, and Megna 800k, and Vanecek 1M.....and we trade ERod, we'd be a couple million under the cap, with room for some deadline moves. 22 man roster. Although I would miss ERod , he's great in the playoffs. But something's gotta give .

 

[Chaos2k7]

We’re only missing a backup if we do a 20-skaters roster only… AND signing Mackie which would be the 13th forward !

It’s gonna be real tight !

It'll be tight

 

[Desert Panther]

If we go 8 years for Brad at 27M total (which is only 5M less than what's reported he'd get in free agency), broken down like this....4+4+4+4+3+3+2.5+2.5....that might get it done. The aav would be 3.375. maybe even throw in some bonuses that would create overages, as next year and after doesn't matter, it's only this year where it's gonna be tight for us.

So if we give Benny 8, Samo 1.5, Brad 3.375 , Nosek 800k, Ek 6.5, and Megna 800k, and Vanecek 1M.....and we trade ERod, we'd be a couple million under the cap, with room for some deadline moves. 22 man roster. Although I would miss ERod , he's great in the playoffs. But something's gotta give .

8 years takes March to age 45. Doubt the league approves that.

 

[KW]

8 years takes March to age 45. Doubt the league approves that.

I’m sure Zito will figure out something super sleazy that’s already been done and is within the rules but only he will get blamed about it. But he’s not gonna GAS.

 

[Ryan57]

Basically Bennett is a done deal so not much use to speculate about that.

Here are some takes from JFresh's analytical model that averages the plays from three previous regular seasons and calculates what is the effect of a player for the team's chances of winning a game.

- Marchand's average WAR (replacement rate percentage) in the last 3 season's has been 78%. This basically means that he has been in the top 22% percentile (compared to other forwards in the NHL). Before these three season's he was in the top 5% but recent season's have been more hard for him.

For Ekblad the WAR rate is 49 % (even strength offense 66%, even strength defense 34%). The past season's haven't been the easiest for him with all the injuries etc. Ekblad had a truly elite year in 21-22 when his combined WAR was 94 %. This was partly carried by his insanely high shot percentage that season but he was also very good defensively that year.

As a comparison some other WAR-rates from our team:
- Reino 98 % (top 2 %)
- Barkov 96 %
- Chucky 93 %
- Bennett 51 %
- Verhaeghe 88 %
- ERod 54 %
- Forsling 90 %
- Mikkola 66 %
- Schmidt 87 %
- Kulikov 34 %

Overall ~4 mil cap hit would be appropriate for Ekblad purely from analytics perspective - that is what solid 50% defensemen tend to get in the league. Ofc he is a franchise player and a two time champ so maybe 5 mil could be ok. I wouldn't pay 6.

Usually for 78 % WAR players like Marchy the cap hit is around 7-8 mil. If he is ready to sign under 8 I would take it.

 

[I am not exposed]

Basically Bennett is a done deal so not much use to speculate about that.

Here are some takes from JFresh's analytical model that averages the plays from three previous regular seasons and calculates what is the effect of a player for the team's chances of winning a game.

- Marchand's average WAR (replacement rate percentage) in the last 3 season's has been 78%. This basically means that he has been in the top 22% percentile (compared to other forwards in the NHL). Before these three season's he was in the top 5% but recent season's have been more hard for him.

For Ekblad the WAR rate is 49 % (even strength offense 66%, even strength defense 34%). The past season's haven't been the easiest for him with all the injuries etc. Ekblad had a truly elite year in 21-22 when his combined WAR was 94 %. This was partly carried by his insanely high shot percentage that season but he was also very good defensively that year.

As a comparison some other WAR-rates from our team:
- Reino 98 % (top 2 %)
- Barkov 96 %
- Chucky 93 %
- Bennett 51 %
- Verhaeghe 88 %
- ERod 54 %
- Forsling 90 %
- Mikkola 66 %
- Schmidt 87 %
- Kulikov 34 %

Overall ~4 mil cap hit would be appropriate for Ekblad purely from analytics perspective - that is what solid 50% defensemen tend to get in the league. Ofc he is a franchise player and a two time champ so maybe 5 mil could be ok. I wouldn't pay 6.

Usually for 78 % WAR players like Marchy the cap hit is around 7-8 mil. If he is ready to sign under 8 I would take it.

Should be be throwing all that money at Bennett considering he's only at 51%!

 

[flin flon bombers]

I love the idea of Ehlers on The Panthers if we do end up going that route, and get a decent price. He is one of my fav players in the league, so I have been thinking about this before.

Maybe it's copium, but I feel his playoff woes would be a thing of the past in Florida. He is blazing fast, forechecks hard and plays a straightforward game, should be a good fit in theory.

Ehlers does not play a straight forward game,I have never seen a player zig and zag once he gets to the blue line as much as him,also his injury history is there.for all his points this playoffs he was a no show before that.