I think the plan would be to offer more like a 2nd and a lower prospect for Karlsson without retention. More likely to move to a 1st than to Morrow, who is still waiver exempt and can continue to develop in Chicago and be the #1 call-up for injury this year.who do you have in mind?
With the cap space available right now, Carolina can absorb Karlsson at the full PIT cap hit for 2 years.
I can see that Pittsburgh would prefer to retain a bit to get a better return, but I don't know how much of a market there is for Karlsson right now besides Carolina.
Add in that Carolina would probably prefer to bring in a more defensive stalwart on D to replace Burns (like Ekblad or Andersson), and there becomes a question of whether Carolina targets Karlsson at all.
I see the argument that Carolina needs more scoring 5x5. But where Carolina needs to improve 5x5 is up front finding someone who will be a scoring threat on the PP and 5x5. I think Ehlers should be their #1 target over even Marner. Then if they can't land Ekblad or Andersson, come back if Karlsson is still available in early July.