Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Eyeseeing]

I find Ehlers a fascinating player as far as HF goes.
He’s a bum in the playoffs ( not this year )
Or he’s hard to play with or injury prone or too small , it’s quite the opposite when he’s on a good run….
Similar to how HF treats KFC
Losing Ehlers would suck hard, who do we have who could replace him…. Nobody that’s who.
We’re fortunate to have both guys.

 

[Jets 31]

Hardcore fans. People who realize how good Ehlers is and has been for half a decade

I'm a hardcore Jets fan and i love Ehlers but what you are saying here is 3 straight NHL coaches know less than you. There has to be a reason why they all wanted him on the 2nd line. My guess was to spread the offense out and not have it all on 1 line but i could be wrong. Maybe all 3 coaches are stupid and all hated Ehlers for some reason.

 

[Jets 31]

I find Ehlers a fascinating player as far as HF goes.
He’s a bum in the playoffs ( not this year )
Or he’s hard to play with or injury prone or too small , it’s quite the opposite when he’s on a good run….
Similar to how HF treats KFC
Losing Ehlers would suck hard, who do we have who could replace him…. Nobody that’s who.
We’re fortunate to have both guys.

Absolutely need Ehlers to stay, no doubt about it but just like most players there is a limit on how much we can pay him. I'm just hoping the fact the Jets can give him 8 years and everyone else can only do 7 might be enough to keep him here.

 

[Jet]

Most of the hardcores know but I think a lot of people will be surprised at how much worse the Jets are next year if they lose Ehlers and don’t make a huge move to replace him. Assuming Lambert isn’t a breakout rookie which, after last year, seems unlikely.

Conversely, I think it's being overstated how much the team will falter if we lose Ehlers. We had the best defensive numbers in the league and the 3rd best GF/G.

Its safe to assume Perfetti will take another step forward offensively next year which will mitigate Ehlers loss somewhat. Perfetti could easily replace Ehlers production next year which means we'd need to replace Perfetti's scoring to stay near the very top of the league in offense.

The forward that's inserted into the second line will need to score 50 points, but let's just say they score 40. Expecting the bottom 6 to make up for that shortfall isn't unreasonable and even if they don't, and this team falls to the middle of the pack for offensive production, considering that we allow the least goals and have been a top defensive team with this group for years now, imho we will still be challenging for the division.

All of that is expecting us to not find a legitimate top 6 forward in FA or through trade this summer.

Yes, Ehlers is great at zone entries. Yes, Ehlers is a consistent producer. Yes, he's exciting as hell to watch.

I think people are reacting with emotion for the loss of a beloved player, and the whole 'you can't lose players for nothing' meme.

I predict that the Jets will be top 5 again next year, without Ehlers.

 

[Jets 31]

Conversely, I think it's being overstated how much the team will falter if we lose Ehlers. We had the best defensive numbers in the league and the 3rd best GF/G.

Its safe to assume Perfetti will take another step forward offensively next year which will mitigate Ehlers loss somewhat. Perfetti could easily replace Ehlers production next year which means we'd need to replace Perfetti's scoring to stay near the very top of the league in offense.

The forward that's inserted into the second line will need to score 50 points, but let's just say they score 40. Expecting the bottom 6 to make up for that shortfall isn't unreasonable and even if they don't, and this team falls to the middle of the pack for offensive production, considering that we allow the least goals and have been a top defensive team with this group for years now, imho we will still be challenging for the division.

All of that is expecting us to not find a legitimate top 6 forward in FA or through trade this summer.

Yes, Ehlers is great at zone entries. Yes, Ehlers is a consistent producer. Yes, he's exciting as hell to watch.

I think people are reacting with emotion for the loss of a beloved player, and the whole 'you can't lose players for nothing' meme.

I predict that the Jets will be top 5 again next year, without Ehlers.

I wonder if Toews could give us 40 points, then maybe some points from Chibby or Lambert .

 

[voyageur]

Conversely, I think it's being overstated how much the team will falter if we lose Ehlers. We had the best defensive numbers in the league and the 3rd best GF/G.

Its safe to assume Perfetti will take another step forward offensively next year which will mitigate Ehlers loss somewhat. Perfetti could easily replace Ehlers production next year which means we'd need to replace Perfetti's scoring to stay near the very top of the league in offense.

The forward that's inserted into the second line will need to score 50 points, but let's just say they score 40. Expecting the bottom 6 to make up for that shortfall isn't unreasonable and even if they don't, and this team falls to the middle of the pack for offensive production, considering that we allow the least goals and have been a top defensive team with this group for years now, imho we will still be challenging for the division.

All of that is expecting us to not find a legitimate top 6 forward in FA or through trade this summer.

Yes, Ehlers is great at zone entries. Yes, Ehlers is a consistent producer. Yes, he's exciting as hell to watch.

I think people are reacting with emotion for the loss of a beloved player, and the whole 'you can't lose players for nothing' meme.

I predict that the Jets will be top 5 again next year, without Ehlers.

I don't think it will be that good. I'm hoping for top 10. Jets won a lot of 1 goal games early in the season. Without Ehlers I think the PP regresses. Without Lowry I expect the defensive side of the Jets to erode a little.

I am excited about Chibrikov getting a shot in the top 6. I think he'll score goal scorer goals, from greasy areas. 15 goals seems easily in reach, maybe 20, but you'll have fewer PP opportunities without Ehlers and potentially more penalties with Chibrikov.

But those 1 goal games can easily flip. Especially if Helle isn't top notch.

Toews will sell jerseys but I'm not overly excited that he'll being much offense.

Losing speed up the middle to me, and any injuries up the middle could make for a more difficult season.

I am worried about regression in the bottom 6 without Lowry to start.

Expecting a very innocuous offseason.

Hopefully players want to come back and Chevy keeps the core together, as best as he can.

 

[Flair Hay]

I wonder if Toews could give us 40 points, then maybe some points from Chibby or Lambert .

40 pts is probably realistic for Toews. Namestnikov has been just shy of that mark the last couple of years

 

[surixon]

I have to agree with this post, and believe Ehlers wants to test the market, to see what he’s worth, and that is not good for the Jets

I say this because I believe he’ll get offers in the $ 9.5 to $ 10 mil range, and I doubt the Jets are willing to go that high on Nik.

Hope I’m wrong, because he’s so entertaining to watch, and this team really needs him.

The Jets can't afford to wait if this is indeed his plan. If he's not signed by the draft my guess is Chevy has moved on from him and onto plan B. He can't afford to pass up whatever other things he has lined up waiting to see if Fly circles back.

 

[Jet]

I wonder if Toews could give us 40 points, then maybe some points from Chibby or Lambert .

Yeah I'd like to see more balanced scoring out of the lineup anyways.

Toews gets 40

Minus Appleton and Kupari (dead space)
Plus Rashevsky, Chibrikov, Lambert (maybe 2 of them)

Could get it done?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Hardcore what?

I think there will be 2, maybe 3 years before Ehlers downward trajectory line intersects with his replacements upward trajectory line

Bodies don't heal as well or as quickly when we age... that's a concern for a guy like Nik who is almost guaranteed one or two injuries a year

It is always hard to predict players aging out but we know that all of them do eventually. It is a factor that needs to be considered. If Nik is on a 2-3 year trajectory it probably coincides with our Scheif/Helle/Morrissey window.

His replacements upward trajectory is way more difficult to predict since we don't have a replacement. Maybe the replacement turns out to be some other guy who is also on a downward trajectory. Or a player whose upward trajectory never rises very high.

 

[Jet]

I don't think it will be that good. I'm hoping for top 10. Jets won a lot of 1 goal games early in the season. Without Ehlers I think the PP regresses. Without Lowry I expect the defensive side of the Jets to erode a little.

I am excited about Chibrikov getting a shot in the top 6. I think he'll score goal scorer goals, from greasy areas. 15 goals seems easily in reach, maybe 20, but you'll have fewer PP opportunities without Ehlers and potentially more penalties with Chibrikov.

But those 1 goal games can easily flip. Especially if Helle isn't top notch.

Toews will sell jerseys but I'm not overly excited that he'll being much offense.

Losing speed up the middle to me, and any injuries up the middle could make for a more difficult season.

I am worried about regression in the bottom 6 without Lowry to start.

Expecting a very innocuous offseason.

Hopefully players want to come back and Chevy keeps the core together, as best as he can.

So, all of that may be true - but I guess the overarching point I was trying to make is that the assertion that the Jets are going to be much worse without Ehlers is more based on the emotion of losing a beloved player than actual logical fact.

I know you were actually addressing my top 5 finish prediction but as you know, I'm an eternal optimist ;P

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have to agree with this post, and believe Ehlers wants to test the market, to see what he’s worth, and that is not good for the Jets

I say this because I believe he’ll get offers in the $ 9.5 to $ 10 mil range, and I doubt the Jets are willing to go that high on Nik.

Hope I’m wrong, because he’s so entertaining to watch, and this team really needs him.

He will also most likely get more term than Jets (and I) would be comfortable with.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The Jets can't afford to wait if this is indeed his plan. If he's not signed by the draft my guess is Chevy has moved on from him and onto plan B. He can't afford to pass up whatever other things he has lined up waiting to see if Fly circles back.

How often do we see a player test the market that way and end up circling back to his original team? It would have to happen very quickly, before his original team had made any other moves.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Absolutely need Ehlers to stay, no doubt about it but just like most players there is a limit on how much we can pay him. I'm just hoping the fact the Jets can give him 8 years and everyone else can only do 7 might be enough to keep him here.

I would rather pay him more for less term. Give him 8 years and those last 4 are going to be tough.

 

[surixon]

So, all of that may be true - but I guess the overarching point I was trying to make is that the assertion that the Jets are going to be much worse without Ehlers is more based on the emotion of losing a beloved player than actual logical fact.

I know you were actually addressing my top 5 finish prediction but as you know, I'm an eternal optimist ;P

Agreed. Loosing him will hurt a bit but there are ways to make up for his contributions.

I thought in round 1 Cole showed he could step into that Ehlers role on the 1st unit pp, and expanded usage in other areas and really contribute. I don't actually see much of a drop off if any happening in those situations moving from fly to Cole.

Where I potentially see an issue is on second line 5 on 5 scoring. Chevy will have to bring in some support for Cole on that line if it's to retain its current effectiveness. Maybe Toews would be one such player, but we'd need another 40 to 50 point player as well imo.

 

[Flair Hay]

So, all of that may be true - but I guess the overarching point I was trying to make is that the assertion that the Jets are going to be much worse without Ehlers is more based on the emotion of losing a beloved player than actual logical fact.

I know you were actually addressing my top 5 finish prediction but as you know, I'm an eternal optimist ;P

The team has proven it can have great success in the regular season with a deep lineup with very minimal weaknesses. Turned losing Dubois into being more of a balanced, 4 line team.

Losing Ehlers will be tough because he is our go to guy for secondary scoring.

Because of the cap, losing players naturally creates flexibility and more options.

-Gives opportunity for Lambert and Chibrikov that wouldn't be there if Ehlers stays.
-Gives us $8M of cap space to play with for depth and trading for a top six at a more critical position (2C, RD)
-Allows Perfetti opportunity to take the step into being the key secondary scorer

I'd really have preferred it to be Ejlers staying instead of Pionk. But Pionk also had a great playoffs and fits with Samberg really well. He answered a lot of my concerns. And I'd still love to have Ehlers back. But we aren't screwed if he leaves.

Like the Leafs losing Marner. It will sting and open up a weakness. But it gives an opportunity to change the look of the team. Sometimes that's important too.

 

[Jet]

The team has proven it can have great success in the regular season with a deep lineup with very minimal weaknesses. Turned losing Dubois into being more of a balanced, 4 line team.

Losing Ehlers will be tough because he is our go to guy for secondary scoring.

Because of the cap, losing players naturally creates flexibility and more options.

-Gives opportunity for Lambert and Chibrikov that wouldn't be there if Ehlers stays.
-Gives us $8M of cap space to play with for depth and trading for a top six at a more critical position (2C, RD)
-Allows Perfetti opportunity to take the step into being the key secondary scorer

I'd really have preferred it to be Ejlers staying instead of Pionk. But Pionk also had a great playoffs and fits with Samberg really well. He answered a lot of my concerns. And I'd still love to have Ehlers back. But we aren't screwed if he leaves.

Like the Leafs losing Marner. It will sting and open up a weakness. But it gives an opportunity to change the look of the team. Sometimes that's important too.

Agreed on all points

 

[Buffdog]

Wouldn't surprise me to see Chevy go hard after Boeser... Minnesota boy, high character

His production would offset Ehlers well, but I'm not sure that he has the pace to play in Arniel's uptempo systems. I could see him being a benefactor of perfetti's vision with the puck on that second line

 

[surixon]

Wouldn't surprise me to see Chevy go hard after Boeser... Minnesota boy, high character

His production would offset Ehlers well, but I'm not sure that he has the pace to play in Arniel's uptempo systems. I could see him being a benefactor of perfetti's vision with the puck on that second line

Yeah, in terms of being able to find soft ice and being able to finish he'd be a good fit. But I don't know that he's able to play our aggressive forecheck scheme. But the org has liked him in the past and does tend to pursue players they liked in the past.

 

[Xavier Laflamme]

Wouldn't surprise me to see Chevy go hard after Boeser... Minnesota boy, high character

His production would offset Ehlers well, but I'm not sure that he has the pace to play in Arniel's uptempo systems. I could see him being a benefactor of perfetti's vision with the puck on that second line

I dunno, Boeser is very slow, pairing him with another slow winger in Fetts and what Vladdy presumably as 2C, that line doesn't really inspire much confidence.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I wonder if Toews could give us 40 points, then maybe some points from Chibby or Lambert .

If Toews gives us 40 points he is playing 2C, bumping Namestnikov who scored 38. Gain of 2. Names replaces Apples who scored 22. He isn't likely to score any more than that playing there. Or he drops to the 4th line and Chibrikov plays on the 3rd. Chib isn't likely to score any more than 22, if that. Or maybe Names plays 2W. How much does he score there?

No matter how you shuffle the lineup we lose Nik's contribution. But he will be replaced by someone so we don't lose 100% of it. Assuming we replace him internally Toews could get a little more out of that replacement with his leadership. That may be his most valuable contribution rather than just however many points he may score.

 

[DRW204]

Yeah I'd like to see more balanced scoring out of the lineup anyways.

Toews gets 40

Minus Appleton and Kupari (dead space)
Plus Rashevsky, Chibrikov, Lambert (maybe 2 of them)

Could get it done?

Toews getting 40 is barely any different than Namestnikov the past 2 seasons. if Ehlers is gone, they need vast improvement on the Wing all the while still needing an upgrade at 2C.

I thought Names' was good in 23-24 at 2C but this year he fell off heavily as the season progressed. Honestly, Perfetti has not been as good at 5v5 offense either. IMO the Jets 2nd line needs to get to the point where Perfetti and Names get bumped down a peg from 2nd and 3rd best fwd on there.

So, all of that may be true - but I guess the overarching point I was trying to make is that the assertion that the Jets are going to be much worse without Ehlers is more based on the emotion of losing a beloved player than actual logical fact.

I know you were actually addressing my top 5 finish prediction but as you know, I'm an eternal optimist ;P

this Jets team is a lot different imo than previous years. they won a game-7 w/o Scheifele showcasing their depth and resilience.

Other than the elite few in the NHL (talking McDavid, Mackinnon tier), i don't think 1 player will make or break most teams. Ehlers being gone will hurt (upgrade dependent), & this team probably should have traded him last year, however he's not in the aforementioned tier where it will destroy the team.

The Jets were a +86 goal differential team last year, factor in regression, lets say 50% which is huge in my eyes, they're a +43 team.... that's Colorado's level.

 

[DRW204]

Ehlers grew up with a dad as a coach and because of that no doubt has more than the usual amount of a player's respect for a coach's wishes. His coaches want short, manageable shifts, so he gives them short, manageable shifts. If his coaches wanted longer shifts, he would happily give his coaches longer shifts. It's got nothing to do with "he knows he is more effective in fewer minutes." He's got enough confidence in himself to believe he'd do just fine in any circumstance. Besides, the few extra seconds he'd get by extending shifts wouldn't materially affect his TOI without the coach giving him more shifts, which is where the time really piles up.

agreed. i can't tell how many times i've heard coaches preach manageable shifts as you mentioned. Rick Bowness, who was the leader in the Jets culture change & still has respect from the players, was a huge proponent of that. It was one the specific things he brought up once being hired.

now apparently the rebuttal against Ehlers and inherently the 2nd line/rest of team should have been lengthening / extending his shifts way more often? that's a ridiculous reach.

They overrate him because he is exciting and can dazzle. Boring players get under appreciated flashy players get over appreciated.

if you want to start getting into the classification of fans vs haters... his haters indirectly overrated him too. probably more.

i have seen many posts from haters like you classifying him as the "Malkin" or "P. Kane" of the team and 2nd line. how many of his "fans" have ever classified him in that tier? that's a huge overrating label to put on him. he's v good, however clearly not one of the GOAT. would anyone start putting Crosby labels on CSV? no, that's ridiculous.

i do think ehlers gets overrated, by me too. frankly i think every player does on here (dont get me started on prospects ). the team isn't cooked without him. just like it wasn't when they missed several key players during games this year.

 

[Buffdog]

If Toews gives us 40 points he is playing 2C, bumping Namestnikov who scored 38. Gain of 2. Names replaces Apples who scored 22. He isn't likely to score any more than that playing there. Or he drops to the 4th line and Chibrikov plays on the 3rd. Chib isn't likely to score any more than 22, if that. Or maybe Names plays 2W. How much does he score there?

No matter how you shuffle the lineup we lose Nik's contribution. But he will be replaced by someone so we don't lose 100% of it. Assuming we replace him internally Toews could get a little more out of that replacement with his leadership. That may be his most valuable contribution rather than just however many points he may score.

Say Chevy can sign Toews and Boeser

Connor Schief Vilardi
Pefetti Toews Boeser
Nino Names Iafallo
XXX Barron YYY

On paper, that top 9 is on par or better than what we ran last year. Not sure how it would shake our in reality, it could end up being worse

 

[surixon]

Say Chevy can sign Toews and Boeser

Connor Schief Vilardi
Pefetti Toews Boeser
Nino Names Iafallo
XXX Barron YYY

On paper, that top 9 is on par or better than what we ran last year. Not sure how it would shake our in reality, it could end up being worse

Agreed. Chevy will have to build more of an offense by committee second line, rather then the Batman and Robin type we ran last year. Depending on who he gets, if they have chemistry and can play out schemes it could be better then what we ran last year or ot could be worse. Toews if he signs and can come in rejuvenated does have a complimentary style of play for our systems and for Cole. Can we get a third player that fits the schemes as well and has the skill to put up some points. I think that is going to be the key for Chevy this offseason.

I'd also like to see a bit more offense from our third and fourth lines next year.