Player Discussion: Ehlers

[DRW204]

My eye test says 81 is trying to be more consistent with backchecks this year and would rival 27 with his speed and intensity on most nights. 55, ya, that's a different story.

Ehlers is typically a strong defensive player, but a play like he did Sunday seems to be more glaring when the game is tight and more of a playoff-type game.

Connor has definitely put a higher effort in 2way engagement this year. Compared to previous years: the Jets with KC on the ice have improved in limiting chances against (xGA) and ultimately leading to a +13 in 5v5 goal differential. Last 3 years he was: 0,+1,-3: a top6 player of his offensive caliber just straddling as an even player. I think that's a testament of this season's all around ability.

I am not great at rating wingers defensively on the league wide scale (like it's difficult to standardize players when considering system vs individual) . But I think relative to this team: Ehlers tries and engages in the play without the puck. The most I can say he isn't a liability which imo is good enough. But really his best "defense" has been zone exits and getting the puck up ice, which I think can be argued is separate from defensive play.

 

[Bob E]

Connor has definitely put a higher effort in 2way engagement this year. Compared to previous years: the Jets with KC on the ice have improved in limiting chances against (xGA) and ultimately leading to a +13 in 5v5 goal differential. Last 3 years he was: 0,+1,-3: a top6 player of his offensive caliber just straddling as an even player. I think that's a testament of this season's all around ability.

I am not great at rating wingers defensively on the league wide scale (like it's difficult to standardize players when considering system vs individual) . But I think relative to this team: Ehlers tries and engages in the play without the puck. The most I can say he isn't a liability which imo is good enough. But really his best "defense" has been zone exits and getting the puck up ice, which I think can be argued is separate from defensive play.

Ehlers doesn't shy away from blocking shots when the need arises. Connor and Scheif are a lot more protective of their body than Nik is, imo. That increases his defensive contribution in my eyes. Though, having the puck while exiting the d zone and entering the opposition zone is a good thing too.

 

[Buffdog]

Ehlers doesn't shy away from blocking shots when the need arises. Connor and Scheif are a lot more protective of their body than Nik is, imo. That increases his defensive contribution in my eyes. Though, having the puck while exiting the d zone and entering the opposition zone is a good thing too.

Really the only beef I have with Ehlers' game is the turnovers at the offensive blue line. If theres no play, hed be better served to get the puck deep than force something there

 

[Bob E]

Really the only beef I have with Ehlers' game is the turnovers at the offensive blue line. If theres no play, hed be better served to get the puck deep than force something there

Very true.

 

[Weezeric]

Really the only beef I have with Ehlers' game is the turnovers at the offensive blue line. If theres no play, hed be better served to get the puck deep than force something there

By my eye, he’s improved a bit in that area. There’s been a few times when he has a dangerous cross ice pass available but decides to put the puck to the net instead.

 

[Buffdog]

By my eye, he’s improved a bit in that area. There’s been a few times when he has a dangerous cross ice pass available but decides to put the puck to the net instead.

Agreed, and I noticed it most when he was playing with Lowry. Very simplified, north - south style, but still with his offensive flair... I thought it was the best he's looked

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

Has Ehlers ever said publicly he’d like to stay here, or even hinted at it?

I’d love to see him as a jet until he retired, but I don’t think he wants to be here.

 

[kanadalainen]

Has Ehlers ever said publicly he’d like to stay here, or even hinted at it?

I’d love to see him as a jet until he retired, but I don’t think he wants to be here.

Ehlers is a classic stoic. He doesn't babble much (if ever at all) about the business side of his game.

 

[Jet]

I don't think Nik is a Jet next year.

I think he wants a bigger opportunity, and I think the Jets won't pay what he'll be asking anyways.

 

[Whileee]

Really the only beef I have with Ehlers' game is the turnovers at the offensive blue line. If theres no play, hed be better served to get the puck deep than force something there

Ehlers' turnovers are more noticable, but Connor turns over a lot of pucks in his zone and at the other blue line. Last night Connor had several turnovers, including one at the Rangers blueline that created a 2 on 1.

The reality is that the Jets have performed much better defensively with Ehlers on the ice at 5v5 whether you measure that by shots against or goals against, and that's been a consistent fact over their careers.

 

[buggs]

I don't think Nik is a Jet next year.

I think he wants a bigger opportunity, and I think the Jets won't pay what he'll be asking anyways.

I respectfully disagree. I think he is likely more aware of his limitations that we give him credit for. I suspect he has a level of humility that is rather unusual in professional athletes. He seems to like Winnipeg and his teammates and Arniel is the first coach to make more effective use of his talents. He'll no doubt want to get paid, but a $8x7 would take him to 36 years old playing his entire career in Winnipeg. It would be just under Helle and Scheifele (duly noting the cap is going up but I expect that money to go to Connor/Vilardi as first line players) but a hometeam discount.

 

[Jet]

I respectfully disagree. I think he is likely more aware of his limitations that we give him credit for. I suspect he has a level of humility that is rather unusual in professional athletes. He seems to like Winnipeg and his teammates and Arniel is the first coach to make more effective use of his talents. He'll no doubt want to get paid, but a $8x7 would take him to 36 years old playing his entire career in Winnipeg. It would be just under Helle and Scheifele (duly noting the cap is going up but I expect that money to go to Connor/Vilardi as first line players) but a hometeam discount.

Hope you're right. He's not perfect but there's a lot to love

 

[Buffdog]

Ehlers' turnovers are more noticable, but Connor turns over a lot of pucks in his zone and at the other blue line. Last night Connor had several turnovers, including one at the Rangers blueline that created a 2 on 1.

The reality is that the Jets have performed much better defensively with Ehlers on the ice at 5v5 whether you measure that by shots against or goals against, and that's been a consistent fact over their careers.

Not sure why you brought Connor into the discussion... I thought we were talking about Ehlers. I'm sure that there's a Connor thread somewhere that you could bump if you wanted to talk about HIS turnovers at the blue line. I honestly find it odd that people will occasionally say "well, yeah.. but... CONNOR..." when we're talking about Ehlers. After all, two wrongs don't make a right

I think that the majority of Ehlers' better outcomes in terms of shot and goal metrics come from his wizardry with zone exits. He's way less likely to get him and his linemates hemmed in, which leads to more chances for the other team (and few chances for the Jets - you can't attempt a shot if you're defending in your own end)

 

[buggs]

Thank goodness I didn't bring Scheifele's boneheaded pass at the blue line across the full width of the ice past three defenders. That was a turnover.

 

[Xavier Laflamme]

He'll no doubt want to get paid, but a $8x7 would take him to 36 years old playing his entire career in Winnipeg. It would be just under Helle and Scheifele (duly noting the cap is going up but I expect that money to go to Connor/Vilardi as first line players) but a hometeam discount.

I don't see Nik accepting 8x7m not when he could easily get 8.5-9m or more on the market and honestly I don't see Chevy worrying to much about the price either, I can see him getting the same deal as Scheifs and Helly.

 

[Gm0ney]

I don't see Nik accepting 8x7m not when he could easily get 8.5-9m or more on the market and honestly I don't see Chevy worrying to much about the price either, I can see him getting the same deal as Scheifs and Helly.

I feel like it's not about the money. He's going to go see if the grass is greener in Carolina or something.

 

[Royale With Cheese]

I don't see Nik accepting 8x7m not when he could easily get 8.5-9m or more on the market and honestly I don't see Chevy worrying to much about the price either, I can see him getting the same deal as Scheifs and Helly.

I think it comes down to the individual. Both Hellebuyck (certainly) and Scheifele (very likely) could have got more $ as UFA but chose not to go. I have no idea how Nik thinks.

 

[Jet]

Ehlers' turnovers are more noticable, but Connor turns over a lot of pucks in his zone and at the other blue line. Last night Connor had several turnovers, including one at the Rangers blueline that created a 2 on 1.

The reality is that the Jets have performed much better defensively with Ehlers on the ice at 5v5 whether you measure that by shots against or goals against, and that's been a consistent fact over their careers.

I do think that Connor turns the puck over more in his zone for sure, but I don't really see him committing high risk turnovers in high ice in the offensive zone that are traditionally some of the most dangerous. Generally speaking he puts it low, and when he turns the puck over in the offensive zone its usually along the boards at or below the hash marks.

I feel like it's not about the money. He's going to go see if the grass is greener in Carolina or something.

Yeah I feel like he wants to see just how much he can do, and he's kind of hit a glass ceiling here.

 

[Mooche]

I feel like it's not about the money. He's going to go see if the grass is greener in Carolina or something.

I sort of have a gut feeling if he does make it to market that the Hurricanes won't be shy throwing out a strong, enticing contract offer. So he may get to check if the grass is greener and be compensated very well for it, too.

We know how much interest over the years they've had in him with the various trade talks. Also, swinging and missing out on Guentzel/Rantanen long term, it just feels like they could be ready to pay up and splash for a difference maker like Fly.

 

[Gm0ney]

I do think that Connor turns the puck over more in his zone for sure, but I don't really see him committing high risk turnovers in high ice in the offensive zone that are traditionally some of the most dangerous. Generally speaking he puts it low, and when he turns the puck over in the offensive zone its usually along the boards at or below the hash marks.


Yeah I feel like he wants to see just how much he can do, and he's kind of hit a glass ceiling here.

I think in the bigger picture, you could argue that Ehlers' turnovers are generally more memorable/dramatic and more dangerous than Connor's...but on the whole, some other facets of Ehlers' game are compensating for that.

There might even be some (bear with me, Jet...) statistical evidence for that. Ehlers' 5v5 defensive shot metrics are better than Connor's across the board - except for HDCA/60, where they're worse than Connor's by about 7%. That lines up with your eye test.

It's been the case this year, but looking at the larger sample of the previous 3 seasons, I don't see it...just Ehlers > Connor across the board including HDCA.

 

[Buffdog]

Thank goodness I didn't bring Scheifele's boneheaded pass at the blue line across the full width of the ice past three defenders. That was a turnover.

Lol I actually looked at my son when he didn't that and said "Schief pulled an Ehlers"

 

[Whileee]

I do think that Connor turns the puck over more in his zone for sure, but I don't really see him committing high risk turnovers in high ice in the offensive zone that are traditionally some of the most dangerous. Generally speaking he puts it low, and when he turns the puck over in the offensive zone its usually along the boards at or below the hash marks.


Yeah I feel like he wants to see just how much he can do, and he's kind of hit a glass ceiling here.

Ehlers does it more than he should, and often extravagantly. But Connor does it more than is noticed, usually because he loses the puck while puckhandling or with small area passes that don't work.

Both need to be a bit more secure.

The sum total of their on ice results are very different in terms of shots and goals against.

 

[DRW204]

I think in the bigger picture, you could argue that Ehlers' turnovers are generally more memorable/dramatic and more dangerous than Connor's...but on the whole, some other facets of Ehlers' game are compensating for that.

There might even be some (bear with me, Jet...) statistical evidence for that. Ehlers' 5v5 defensive shot metrics are better than Connor's across the board - except for HDCA/60, where they're worse than Connor's by about 7%. That lines up with your eye test.

It's been the case this year, but looking at the larger sample of the previous 3 seasons, I don't see it...just Ehlers > Connor across the board including HDCA.

Plot xGA vs goal differential
at 5v5 per 60 and the difference is stark over the last 3-5 years for the two.