Player Discussion: Ehlers

[ps241]

It’s interesting that Ehlers is a PPG player now that he is a full time player on the 1st PP unit even while playing on a not great second line. I realize the 1st PP unit is off the charts hot but he is certainly a big part of that. He needs to have a great playoff run and then I guess we will see where this all goes after the season.

 

[DRW204]

Danish efficiency...

Despite still being pretty high on Jets fwds at 5v5 production rate, he asn't been as good as his lofty standards. Playing with Perfetti and Namestnikov, who are closer to Appleton in terms of 5v5 scoring probably has something to do with that. The PP improvement came at an optimal time.

 

[Jets 31]

Honestly if Chevy has to overpay a little i think you still sign him. We sure as hell won't ever be able to sign a player of his talent through free agency.

 

[DRW204]

It’s interesting that Ehlers is a PPG player now that he is a full time player on the 1st PP unit even while playing on a not great second line. I realize the 1st PP unit is off the charts hot but he is certainly a big part of that. He needs to have a great playoff run and then I guess we will see where this all goes after the season.

his TOI is marginally different from the last couple years. the difference is PP1 time now. if you're a player on either of the Jets PP units you're eating. iirc 10 Jets players are in the top 75 of NHL players in PP scoring rate, that's the entire 2 units essentially. edit: tweet Garret referenced below


the PP improvements came at a good time for ehlers in a contract year. the 5v5 scoring, while still good this year relative to the Jets team, has taken a step back from his recent career lofty standards. if signed elsewhere, or even here, not sure how replicable that PP scoring efficiency is on a new team or sustainable year over year.

 

[ps241]

his TOI is marginally different from the last couple years. the difference is PP1 time now. if you're a player on either of the Jets PP units you're eating. iirc 10 Jets players are in the top 75 of NHL players in PP scoring rate, that's the entire 2 units essentially. edit: tweet Garret referenced below


the PP improvements came at a good time for ehlers in a contract year. the 5v5 scoring, while still good this year relative to the Jets team, has taken a step back from his recent career lofty standards. if signed elsewhere, or even here, not sure how replicable that PP scoring efficiency is on a new team or sustainable year over year.

Quality post.

Have to give it up to the PP coaching. It’s one thing to be riding one hot PP unit for a prolonged stretch like this but when you have two PP units on the same team humming for this long luck becomes less weighted for me at least as a way to explain it all away.

 

[Jets 31]

Quality post.

Have to give it up to the PP coaching. It’s one thing to be riding one hot PP unit for a prolonged stretch like this but when you have two PP units on the same team humming for this long luck becomes less weighted for me at least as a way to explain it all away.

I give credit to Arniel as well for getting a new PP coach .

 

[Gm0ney]

his TOI is marginally different from the last couple years. the difference is PP1 time now. if you're a player on either of the Jets PP units you're eating. iirc 10 Jets players are in the top 75 of NHL players in PP scoring rate, that's the entire 2 units essentially. edit: tweet Garret referenced below


the PP improvements came at a good time for ehlers in a contract year. the 5v5 scoring, while still good this year relative to the Jets team, has taken a step back from his recent career lofty standards. if signed elsewhere, or even here, not sure how replicable that PP scoring efficiency is on a new team or sustainable year over year.

Even in an "off" year at 5v5, Ehlers is still 2nd on the team in points/60.

On the power play, Ehlers is 4th in the NHL in points/60, and 1st in primary assists/60. He's the straw stirring the top unit's drink.

 

[DRW204]

Even in an "off" year at 5v5, Ehlers is still 2nd on the team in points/60.

On the power play, Ehlers is 4th in the NHL in points/60, and 1st in primary assists/60. He's the straw stirring the top unit's drink.

yeah i mentioned relative to the team he's still pretty good. but think it's important to point out to his usual standards it's been a bit of a step down. playing with Perfetti & Namestnikov, who are below average in finishing this season, may have a bit to do with that too.

also just to further contextualize his season; looking at his and vilardi's stats... thinking how much of a tier difference scheifele+connor are over namestnikov+perfetti,: ehlers has a higher PPG than vilardi this year, both play pp1, while vilardi has spent 90%+ with scheifele at 5v5.

 

[Gm0ney]

yeah i mentioned relative to the team he's still pretty good. but think it's important to point out to his usual standards it's been a bit of a step down. playing with Perfetti & Namestnikov, who are below average in finishing this season, may have a bit to do with that too.

also just to further contextualize his season; looking at his and vilardi's stats... thinking how much of a tier difference scheifele+connor are over namestnikov+perfetti,: ehlers has a higher PPG than vilardi this year, both play pp1, while vilardi has spent 90%+ with scheifele at 5v5.

He sets up Perfetti and Names with a couple of Grade-AAA chances pretty much every night. If his line had a real trigger-man...like if he was feeding those chances to Connor and Scheifele? Alas...

 

[Howard Chuck]

his TOI is marginally different from the last couple years. the difference is PP1 time now. if you're a player on either of the Jets PP units you're eating. iirc 10 Jets players are in the top 75 of NHL players in PP scoring rate, that's the entire 2 units essentially. edit: tweet Garret referenced below


the PP improvements came at a good time for ehlers in a contract year. the 5v5 scoring, while still good this year relative to the Jets team, has taken a step back from his recent career lofty standards. if signed elsewhere, or even here, not sure how replicable that PP scoring efficiency is on a new team or sustainable year over year.

I’ll go one step further and say that Ehlers IS the PP improvement. I’ve said it in a couple of other threads, Ehlers will shoot from anywhere and cause rebounds and generally cause chaos out there when our very talented other players prefer to pass the puck for 2 minutes. Luckily we have very talented players to take advantage of this. Not much else is different on our PP this year. We need his unpredictability to make the PP work.

 

[Gm0ney]

I’ll go one step further and say that Ehlers IS the PP improvement. I’ve said it in a couple of other threads, Ehlers will shoot from anywhere and cause rebounds and generally cause chaos out there when our very talented other players prefer to pass the puck for 2 minutes. Luckily we have very talented players to take advantage of this. Not much else is different on our PP this year. We need his unpredictability to make the PP work.

Ehlers is a big part of it. But it's more than just him out there freewheeling and firing the puck. Everything is more optimized and there are usually a ton of good options. And if nothing is presenting itself, everyone starts circulating around. It's a better plan all around than trying to run everything through Connor, which is what it looked like a lot the last couple of years. The zone entries are much better this year too (and Ehlers isn't usually even involved there).

But yeah, having a guy who can wheel around the zone with the puck on a string, make ridiculous tape to tape passes into high danger areas and snap off decent shots himself is a big benefit.

 

[buggs]

I’ll go one step further and say that Ehlers IS the PP improvement. I’ve said it in a couple of other threads, Ehlers will shoot from anywhere and cause rebounds and generally cause chaos out there when our very talented other players prefer to pass the puck for 2 minutes. Luckily we have very talented players to take advantage of this. Not much else is different on our PP this year. We need his unpredictability to make the PP work.

No question Ehlers added to the power play.

However I think the biggest difference in the power play was done by subtraction. No more Brad Lauer at the helm of the power play.

 

[Jet]

No question Ehlers added to the power play.

However I think the biggest difference in the power play was done by subtraction. No more Brad Lauer at the helm of the power play.

Exactly. I guess you could say that Ehlers leaving the second pp unit made it better using this logic?

No doubt Nik belongs on the first pp but our success there this year is mainly coaching.

 

[Whileee]

Exactly. I guess you could say that Ehlers leaving the second pp unit made it better using this logic?

No doubt Nik belongs on the first pp but our success there this year is mainly coaching.

The two are inextricably linked. Payne's PP works because he has Ehlers playing a very active role in creating space, puck retrievals and as a play maker. Ehlers is a key cog and Payne's PP wouldn't work nearly as well without Ehlers.

 

[Howard Chuck]

The two are inextricably linked. Payne's PP works because he has Ehlers playing a very active role in creating space, puck retrievals and as a play maker. Ehlers is a key cog and Payne's PP wouldn't work nearly as well without Ehlers.

I agree. I think everyone on PP1 is playing a better role this year, but to me Ehlers is the chaos that makes the opposition wonder what the heck is going to happen.

 

[Jet]

The two are inextricably linked. Payne's PP works because he has Ehlers playing a very active role in creating space, puck retrievals and as a play maker. Ehlers is a key cog and Payne's PP wouldn't work nearly as well without Ehlers.

Sure - I don't have the numbers, but how is PP2 producing?

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

I agree. I think everyone on PP1 is playing a better role this year, but to me Ehlers is the chaos that makes the opposition wonder what the heck is going to happen.

He’s the only fwd that plays consistently unexpected. For both good and bad. But you gotta take the bad with the good. It’s worth it IMO.

 

[Gm0ney]

Sure - I don't have the numbers, but how is PP2 producing?

Looking at the top unit of CSV + Ehlers and Morrissey, they are 27 GF - 2 GA (+25). Ehlers missed a few games and the unit without him was 5 GF - 0 GA. So 32-2 = +30 overall. Edit: Oops...they're +33 (C?V+EM scored one, and CSV+E? scored 2).

The 2nd unit I'm defining as none of those guys on the ice. They're 16-0.

Nice split. Both units are shooting really hot though: 23% for PP1 and 26% for PP2.

Another edit: this is 5v4 PP only.

 

[Jet]

Looking at the top unit of CSV + Ehlers and Morrissey, they are 27 GF - 2 GA (+25). Ehlers missed a few games and the unit without him was 5 GF - 0 GA. So 32-2 = +30 overall. Edit: Oops...they're +33 (C?V+EM scored one, and CSV+E? scored 2).

The 2nd unit I'm defining as none of those guys on the ice. They're 16-0.

Nice split. Both units are shooting really hot though: 23% for PP1 and 26% for PP2.

Another edit: this is 5v4 PP only.

So that would suggest coaching has had more impact than simply Ehlers move.

Again, I think Ehlers should have been on pp1 all along i just think his impact there is exaggerated.

 

[Bob E]

During the Carolina game, Ehlers did one of his famous "lay on the ice trying to draw a penalty" play, but then did not get up to get back into the play quickly, which must drive the Jets coaches nuts. Not only was he very slow to get up, he continued to complain to the ref as he slowly skated back. Meanwhile the Canes had a 4on2 rush the other way, while Ehlers was in no hurry to get back. Arniel does not seem like the type of coach that would be ok with that kind of play.

Its plays like that, and cross-ice backhand passes to no one that get picked off, that must not endear himself to the coaches. Nik just has to limit those plays, especially in the playoffs.

 

[DRW204]

I’ll go one step further and say that Ehlers IS the PP improvement. I’ve said it in a couple of other threads, Ehlers will shoot from anywhere and cause rebounds and generally cause chaos out there when our very talented other players prefer to pass the puck for 2 minutes. Luckily we have very talented players to take advantage of this. Not much else is different on our PP this year. We need his unpredictability to make the PP work.

Both things can be true. Jets have 10 players, essentially both PP units, among the leagues best in PP scoring rates. The systematic change has been the key factor overall, then Ehlers' inclusion. I don't think you just put ehlers on pp1 last year and it performs like this for instance.

 

[Gm0ney]

So that would suggest coaching has had more impact than simply Ehlers move.

Again, I think Ehlers should have been on pp1 all along i just think his impact there is exaggerated.

Yes, having guys play to their strengths and fixing zone entries has been the biggest difference maker, I think.

When Wheeler was in his lame duck season and especially after he left, Lauer really needed to totally retool the powerplay. With Wheeler, you had him feeding Scheifele in the bumper or Connor on the opposite circle - two good shooting options. Without Wheeler, Scheifele left the bumper and it seemed like the focus was to run the old system in reverse with Scheifele trying to feed Connor - but that cut the good shooting options in half.

Then last year they seemed to struggle a lot with zone entries and it hasn't been a big issue this year (although it might just seem that way because of how successful they've been?).

Now there are 4 or 5 good options and a puck hog in Ehlers who isn't afraid to take matters into his own hands and mix the pot when nothing's available. And he's pretty good at disrupting the other team's structure and finding a shooter. Like a mobile Wheeler...

I would guess teams gameplan for the Jets PP1 a bit and that makes it easier for PP2 to do its thing (which seems to be more focused on getting pucks in front of the net than tic-tac-toe one timers). Pionk is also a chaos machine and good on the point.

Anyway, yeah if I had to sum it up in a sentence: they're playing to their strengths and it's working.

 

[Mad Dog Tannen]

During the Carolina game, Ehlers did one of his famous "lay on the ice trying to draw a penalty" play, but then did not get up to get back into the play quickly, which must drive the Jets coaches nuts. Not only was he very slow to get up, he continued to complain to the ref as he slowly skated back. Meanwhile the Canes had a 4on2 rush the other way, while Ehlers was in no hurry to get back. Arniel does not seem like the type of coach that would be ok with that kind of play.

Its plays like that, and cross-ice backhand passes to no one that get picked off, that must not endear himself to the coaches. Nik just has to limit those plays, especially in the playoffs.

That’s fair and you never want to see that.

However in general I would say Ehlers backcheck puts 55 and 81s to absolute shame.

 

[Bob E]

That’s fair and you never want to see that.

However in general I would say Ehlers backcheck puts 55 and 81s to absolute shame.

My eye test says 81 is trying to be more consistent with backchecks this year and would rival 27 with his speed and intensity on most nights. 55, ya, that's a different story.

Ehlers is typically a strong defensive player, but a play like he did Sunday seems to be more glaring when the game is tight and more of a playoff-type game.